Jets Signing Sanchez Made Little Sense to NFL Statisticians

[Lizard King]

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- In a National Football League era dominated by elite quarterbacks, past seasons’ statistics help show that the New York Jets haven’t had one in a long time.

Mark Sanchez’s fourth year with the franchise after being drafted No. 5 has been his least successful. The 6-9 team will end its season on Dec. 30 at the Buffalo Bills.

Sanchez, who was given a new salary-cap draining contract in March that guaranteed him a combined $20.5 million in 2012 and 2013, quarterbacked the Jets to the American Football Conference’s championship game his first two seasons. Statistics show that the 26-year-old perhaps didn’t deserve the extension or a place in the team’s starting lineup even with the winning records.

“To give Sanchez an extension in the offseason was monumentally ridiculous,” said Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com, which uses advanced statistics to analyze player values. “His performance is the equivalent of your average backup quarterback.”

Sanchez had 13 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions while completing 54.8 percent of his passes before being benched following five turnovers in a Dec. 17 loss to Tennessee that ended the Jets’ playoff hopes. He’s had 50 turnovers the last two seasons.

Sanchez will return to the first string for the finale. Greg McElroy, who got his initial career start in a 27-17 loss to the San Diego Chargers four days ago, informed the staff today that he was feeling the effects of a concussion suffered during the game, coach Rex Ryan said at a news conference.

Statistical Start

Sanchez threw for 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions as a rookie in 2009, then seemed to improve the following year, tossing 17 scoring passes while being picked off 13 times. Another 15 of his passes in 2010 should have been interceptions but were dropped by defenders, according to FootballOutsiders.com.

“That’s the most dropped interceptions we’ve tracked from any quarterback in the four years we’ve been doing this,” Schatz said in a telephone interview.

The website uses a ranking called DYAR, which stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. The metric measures how a player’s performance compares to generic “replacement- level” players in the same situation. Out of 39 quarterbacks who have thrown 100 passes this season, Sanchez ranks last. He also ranks 34th in rushing out of 34 quarterbacks who’ve attempted at least seven runs.

Rookie Preferred

“There’s no reason why you would want Mark Sanchez right now instead of a rookie you could get in the second or third round,” Schatz said.

Backup Tim Tebow wasn’t trusted to become a starter when Sanchez was benched. McElroy, a third-stringer who was a seventh-round 2011 draft pick, was sacked a team record-tying 11 times by the San Diego Chargers.

“Clearly, the die is cast,” Brian Billick, the Super Bowl-winning coach of the Baltimore Ravens in the 2000 season who is now an analyst for Fox Sports, said in a telephone interview. “You’ve got to go in a different direction. It’s hard to imagine that they believe McElroy is going to be the long-term answer. We know Tim Tebow is not.”

Tebow’s Role

Tebow, acquired in an offseason trade with Denver, probably will be released and play with the Jacksonville Jaguars next season, ESPN reported. Brought in to operate the Jets’ wildcat offensive packages that mix quarterback runs and passes, Tebow told reporters he was disappointed that Ryan chose to start McElroy against the Chargers. Prior to the game, Tebow informed his coaches he didn’t want to be used in the wildcat, ESPN said, citing multiple unidentified people in the Jets’ organization. Yesterday, Tebow denied that he had asked not to be used for the plays.

NFL teams no longer can win Super Bowls without elite quarterbacks, as the Ravens did with Trent Dilfer and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did with Brad Johnson two years later, Billick said.

Aided by one of the best single-season defenses in NFL history, Baltimore’s title came during an era devoid of elite quarterbacks, Billick said. Future Hall of Famers such as John Elway, Troy Aikman, Steve Young and Dan Marino were retiring and current top-level players such as Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger were emerging or in college.

Different Era

“There was a void there but now it’s changed,” Billick said. “Can you win games? Yes. Can you be a good team? Yes. Can you win a championship? No. Not without solid play at the quarterback position.”

The top quarterback prospects for the 2013 NFL draft are the University of Southern California’s Matt Barkley, West Virginia’s Geno Smith and North Carolina State’s Mike Glennon, according to Russ Lande, a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams.

Barkley is most prepared to play in the NFL because he’s been in a pro system and is very intelligent, though not a great physical talent, said Lande, scouting director for the National Football Post.

Smith, a strong-armed quarterback with a very good understanding of the game, “needs a lot of technical work” on his footwork and mechanics, while Glennon, a 6-foot-5 passer with a strong arm and poise, is slow to release the ball, Lande said.

“There is nobody that I’ve spoken to that has told me, ‘This guy is the guy,’” Lande said of his conversations with other NFL talent evaluators. “Every guy, there’s concerns and questions about.”

Calling Turner

Both Lande and Schatz suggested the best option for the Jets would be to hire Norv Turner as offensive coordinator if the 60-year-old is let go as coach of the Chargers, who are also 6-9. Turner, with a reputation of being a strong developer of quarterbacks, was the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive coordinator from 1991 to 1993, when the team won two Super Bowls.

“Let Norv try to fix Sanchez and give him a young guy to work with in case Sanchez never makes it,” Lande said.

Ryan made Sanchez his first draft pick in 2009. The recent formula for new NFL coaches is to find a young quarterback with whom to build a team, said Billick, citing successful pairings of Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, and current Ravens coach John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco.

“Rex reached out to get Sanchez and it didn’t turn out,” Billick said. “Typically when you miss on a first-round quarterback, it costs you. The question is, are you going to be given another chance?”

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--Editors: Larry Siddons, Michael Sillup

To contact the reporter on this story:

Mason Levinson in New York at +1-212-617-4753 or mlevinson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Michael Sillup at +1-212-617-1262 or msillup@bloomberg.net

[SayNoToDMC]

You didn't need to be a stats geek to know the extension was an abortion.

[The Crusher]

You didn't need to be a stats geek to know the extension was an abortion.

Truth

[CrazyCarl40]

Jets Signing Sanchez Made Little Sense to Anyone Ever

[Jetsfan80]

You didn't need to be a stats geek to know the extension was an abortion.

Yet many here supported it at the time because it "freed up cap space".

[SayNoToDMC]

Yet many here supported it at the time because it "freed up cap space".

Somebody needs to compile a list of these people so I know who's opinion I can ignore

[bitonti]

extending sanchez wasn't the mistake. Drafting him at 5 was the mistake. the extension was necessary, because of the old CBA contract he had. I know you guys like Laron Landry, well no Sanchez extension no Landry. No Pouha. The original sin was the draft pick. the extension was just a continuation of that mistake.

it's easy to say the extension sucked (and it did) but it was a move they had to make. the alternative of letting him play out his deal and make 10+ mil in salary was never a real option.

[unbanmadmike1]

extending sanchez wasn't the mistake. Drafting him at 5 was the mistake. the extension was necessary, because of the old CBA contract he had. I know you guys like Laron Landry, well no Sanchez extension no Landry. No Pouha. The original sin was the draft pick. the extension was just a continuation of that mistake.

it's easy to say the extension sucked (and it did) but it was a move they had to make. the alternative of letting him play out his deal and make 10+ mil in salary was never a real option.

The Jets would be in better shape in 2013 with no Sanchez contract and no Landry than the shape they are in. Landry might leave anyway.

[Jetsfan80]

Somebody needs to compile a list of these people so I know who's opinion I can ignore

Excuse me while I go necro a thread or 2....

[RutgersJetFan]

Lol i dont need no fancy math and books to tell me what I see bro.

[JetsFanInDenver]

Mark's extension was the classic cheater's guilt move like Kobe buying his wife that multi million dollar ring after he got caught cheating.

It had nothing to do with pesky things like stats or play on the field.

[Jetsfan80]

extending sanchez wasn't the mistake. Drafting him at 5 was the mistake. the extension was necessary, because of the old CBA contract he had. I know you guys like Laron Landry, well no Sanchez extension no Landry. No Pouha. The original sin was the draft pick. the extension was just a continuation of that mistake.

it's easy to say the extension sucked (and it did) but it was a move they had to make. the alternative of letting him play out his deal and make 10+ mil in salary was never a real option.

How about telling him to take a pay cut or he'd be out of a job? Do you think he'd have any leverage on that? No team was going to be rushing to sign Sanchez after that '11 season.

Much like the better part of Tannenbaum's tenure here, we competed with ourselves to sign players to pricey extensions. This one was even worse than guys like David Harris and Santonio Holmes because Sanchez did nothing to EARN an extension.

[ZachEY]

extending sanchez wasn't the mistake. Drafting him at 5 was the mistake. the extension was necessary, because of the old CBA contract he had. I know you guys like Laron Landry, well no Sanchez extension no Landry. No Pouha. The original sin was the draft pick. the extension was just a continuation of that mistake.

it's easy to say the extension sucked (and it did) but it was a move they had to make. the alternative of letting him play out his deal and make 10+ mil in salary was never a real option.

Or, they were both the wrong move.

Sanchez stunk last year too, and they locked into him for two more years at the time. It's one thing to make a bad pick, but the good teams abandon ship. Same deal with Gholston. Drafting Gholston was a mistake, but you were actually right, we were paying him and cutting him out of anger didn't make the Jets defense any better. However, giving him more money when he was useless would have been "monumentally ridiculous". That's exactly what the Jets did with Sanchez. They locked themselves in to more awful performance.

As for the other guys. People like Landry and Pouha, but we could have had a losing season without them too. We could have said this will be a tough year cap-wise, and not continue to mortgage the future when we're not actually close to a championship.

Or, we could have negotiated an extension that was more beneficial, rather than fully guaranteeing his salary for the next two years at huge numbers. They're paying as the 7th highest paid QB in the league. I'm sure they could have worked something out that didn't make him that and still got some cap shape.

Hell, you could have cut Sanchez last year and this team would have been better off.

[SenorGato]

You don't need advanced metrics to tell you Sanchez stinks.

OTOH, you also don't need them to note the lack of quality prospects in the college world or that the vast majority of NFL QBs suck and would suck to extreme levels if given a starting job...I mean people are calling Mike f'n Glennon a top 10 pick right now...Anybody down for Mike Glennon as the starting QB in 2013? I'm equally not enthused with him as I would be for Sanchez.

The extension was dumb, but there's a but there somewhere.

[Larz]

in this article, they made the mistake of assuming the extension was based on merit

it was a bouqet for cheating on him with manning

yeah, that was an awesome 3 day span for tanny

fml

[bitonti]

Or, we could have negotiated an extension that was more beneficial, rather than fully guaranteeing his salary for the next two years at huge numbers. They're paying as the 7th highest paid QB in the league. I'm sure they could have worked something out that didn't make him that and still got some cap shape.

im not a contract guy like Jason but my understanding with those old CBA deals, the team has no leverage. The money is fully guaranteed. You can't force Sanchez into a renegotiation (or else) when he's owed 10+ mil. Tanny deserves to be fired but really it's for drafting Sanchez at 5. the extension allowed them to sign Pouha and Landry and that's actually good.

[ZachEY]

im not a contract guy like Jason but my understanding with those old CBA deals, the team has no leverage. The money is fully guaranteed. You can't force Sanchez into a renegotiation (or else) when he's owed 10+ mil. Tanny deserves to be fired but really it's for drafting Sanchez at 5. the extension allowed them to sign Pouha and Landry and that's actually good.

Not all the money is. Jets would have been better off getting out when they had the chance. They could have cut him at the time, and let him see what he could get on the market, that's the ultimate trump in this case. Who'd have given him a free pass to start and starter money? And even if Sanchez had "all the leverage", this deal was about as bad as it got.

And, as I said, we can be a losing team w/o Landry and Pouha. All we got for that extension is to be a losing team with them and to be tied into one of the league's worst QB's on the league's worst contracts.

[bitonti]

Not all the money is. Jets would have been better off getting out when they had the chance.

If we had a rear view mirror this is true. If we knew REvis would go down in week 3 and the team was a wash this year, yes I would agree. again I don't know all the ins and outs but my understanding is that "getting out" means letting him play for obscenely huge money this year, all salary. they turned something like 11 million into 14 and spread it over 2 years. These numbers are napkin math that are probably inaccurate. but the general idea of paying Sanchez that much all at once and losing Pouha/Landry isn't such a great altnerative.

And the guarantee means Sanchez gets it whether he's playing for another team or sitting on the couch. those top of the draft contracts were the dank of contracts. I am not saying the extension was great but the original decision to draft him is what's getting Tanny fired. that and having no depth.

[Sperm Edwards]

im not a contract guy like Jason but my understanding with those old CBA deals, the team has no leverage. The money is fully guaranteed. You can't force Sanchez into a renegotiation (or else) when he's owed 10+ mil. Tanny deserves to be fired but really it's for drafting Sanchez at 5. the extension allowed them to sign Pouha and Landry and that's actually good.

Sanchez was past the guaranteed portion of his rookie contract. If he was cut (if he called the Jets' bluff on a "renegotiate or else" ultimatum) it would have saved the team far more than what we saved by extending him. Plus he would have been off the team in early March of 2012 - a damn good year to draft a QB as late as round 3 - and he'd have been off the books forever for 2013 and beyond.

The extension was worse than the draft pick. Bad as the pick was, the draft is somewhat of a crapshoot as you well know, and everyone drafts lousy players who just flat-out suck.

[ZachEY]

If we had a rear view mirror this is true. If we knew REvis would go down in week 3 and the team was a wash this year, yes I would agree. again I don't know all the ins and outs but my understanding is that "getting out" means letting him play for obscenely huge money this year, all salary. they turned something like 11 million into 14 and spread it over 2 years. These numbers are napkin math that are probably inaccurate. but the general idea of paying Sanchez that much all at once and losing Pouha/Landry isn't such a great altnerative.

And the guarantee means Sanchez gets it whether he's playing for another team or sitting on the couch. those top of the draft contracts were the dank of contracts. I am not saying the extension was great but the original decision to draft him is what's getting Tanny fired. that and having no depth.

Dude. We stunk to start the season with Revis. We were 8-8 last year with Revis. The best CB in football still plays CB and only can cover 1 guy at a time. The Jets are still 2nd best in passing yards against. Plenty of us knew this was not the year to win it all, and if the Jets front office thought otherwise, then well, the forthcoming firing is fitting.

There's a million reasons to fire Tanny at this point. So, honestly its discussing semantics. However, the only point I have is there wasn't only one solution this offseason, to make Sanchez the 7th highest paid QB. They doubled down on a terrible player. From bad to worse, drafting to extending.

[CrazyCarl40]

Sanchez was past the guaranteed portion of his rookie contract. If he was cut (if he called the Jets' bluff on a "renegotiate or else" ultimatum) it would have saved the team far more than what we saved by extending him. Plus he would have been off the team in early March of 2012 - a damn good year to draft a QB as late as round 3 - and he'd have been off the books forever for 2013 and beyond.

The extension was worse than the draft pick. Bad as the pick was, the draft is somewhat of a crapshoot as you well know, and everyone drafts lousy players who just flat-out suck.

Well that would have meant admitting they were wrong and made a mistake. That's something only men do. The people running this gong show have shown that they are more huff and puff than they are men of substance.

[ZachEY]

Well that would have meant admitting they were wrong and made a mistake. That's something only men do. The people running this gong show have shown that they are more huff and puff than they are men of substance.

Hence why the extension was the huge mistake. Had they drafted a bust and moved on, at least we could have faith that this organization can recognize talent and lack their of and keep trying to move in the right direction.

We can't even say that.

[Sharrow]

What a sh*tty article. Obviously no one disagrees with the premise; nobody here ever thought the extension was a good idea. But how can you write an article with a title saying that statisticians didn't like the Sanchez extension and then not include any pre-2012 stats except for his TD/Int numbers in 2009 and 2010 and dropped interceptions in 2010? What about his sh*tty play in 2011? I wanted to actually see a bunch of stats showing how bad he was before this year, and instead, there's nothing there that every Jets fan doesn't already know.

[Sperm Edwards]

Well that would have meant admitting they were wrong and made a mistake. That's something only men do. The people running this gong show have shown that they are more huff and puff than they are men of substance.

Yep.

[Bugg]

“Clearly, the die is cast,” Brian Billick, the Super Bowl-winning coach of the Baltimore Ravens in the 2000 season who is now an analyst for Fox Sports, said in a telephone interview. “You’ve got to go in a different direction. It’s hard to imagine that they believe McElroy is going to be the long-term answer. We know Tim Tebow is not.”

Briam Billick attempting again to say as many empty cliches as possbile in the shortest time allowable. If you asked this guy who first said "The die is cast"(attributed to Julius Ceasar,) he would hve no goddamn clue. That the Ravens had this egomaniac and Rex on the same staff is scary. How did they win anything?

[Ignatius del Sol]

Drafting him at 5 was the mistake.

The mistake was not firing Tannenbaum and Rex the second they told Woody they were planning on doing such a thing.

[Lupz27]

extending sanchez wasn't the mistake. Drafting him at 5 was the mistake. the extension was necessary, because of the old CBA contract he had. I know you guys like Laron Landry, well no Sanchez extension no Landry. No Pouha. The original sin was the draft pick. the extension was just a continuation of that mistake.

it's easy to say the extension sucked (and it did) but it was a move they had to make. the alternative of letting him play out his deal and make 10+ mil in salary was never a real option.

Boy imagine a world where the Jets went to Brett Favre's door step after hiring Rex, and told Brett your our guy we are not releasing you if you want to play football in 2009 it will be for the NY Jets. Here is our offer to you we want you back, we are/already did fire Brian Schottenheimer, you tell us what O-Coordinator you would like us to bring here for you, my guess is Brett chooses Tom Clements, I don't know if GB would have granted Clements permission to talk with the Jets about taking over as their OC which would have been a step up from QB's coach, or if he would have been interested, I think if Favre was in the mix he would have to be. After the Jets get that squared away they go, and draft Hakeem Nicks at pick 17, and LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round with the pick they would have not given away for trading up in the 1st round, Favre decides to come back in 2010 again like he did with Minny, and then in the 2011 draft with their 1st overall pick, probably somewhere in the 20-32 range the Jets reach for their future QB, and draft Andy Dalton, or Colin Kaepernick, and the rest is history, and probably a really good history, good chance their could have been a SB celebration in 2009, or 2010 if Favre stays healthy, or heck 2.

Now that I think about it Tom Clements should be added to the list of HC canidates along with Darrell Bevell IMO, IF Rex is fired.

[jack48]

the jets decision to extend him after seeing 3 years of Sanchez was to cross their fingers and squeeze real tight. Very statistically oriented. Anyone with eyes could see there was nothing there. Why not cut bait when there is nothing there? Bring in a cheaper nothing if you have to.

[Ignatius del Sol]

Anyone with eyes could see there was nothing there.

Anybody who can count to sixteen could have seen there was nothing there in 2009. Everybody chose not to.