Why should Revis be valued by the Jets more than by all 31 other teams?

[Sperm Edwards]

Take as part of the price, the contract required to sign Revis.  Add to that the top offer we get out of all 31 other teams.  Say that's this year's #13 plus whatever (plus nothing else; plus a #2 or #3 next year; whatever), as is the present rumor.

 

With any other team's cost being $3M/year less than it would cost the Jets (which it is), if the top offer is this year's #13 plus whatever, why should we turn that down?  This would represent the best offer from any other NFL team.  This means it is the market-setting offer for Revis. By turning down that top offer we are effectively outbidding all 31 other teams.  Whatever the top deal is, if we turn it down it is the same as outbidding that team because we are surrendering those picks offered to us by the top-bidding team.  But it's worse.  We're outbidding that on top of the $3M/year additional it costs us compared to anyone else.  In other words, if Revis was $3M/year more expensive, his top offer would surely be even less.

Why is Revis worth more to the Jets in (a) draft pick value, and (b) in annual compensation, than to any other NFL team? Consider the things that decrease his trade value:

• History of lengthy holdout? check.
• History of publicly indicating he might not show up to camp after pocketing $24M the prior season? check.
• History of not-serious/nagging type injury during the season due to showing up out of shape after an extended holdout? check.
• History of serious injury? check.
• Hasn't seen an NFL field since that serious injury? check.

With all that, he still has tremendous value.  But it isn't the same as though he was a great, great CB with no check-marks next to all of these value-reducing traits.  

 

So if 31 other NFL teams don't think today he's worth two #1's "at least" (as some here have repeatedly indicated), even if they're very late #1 picks, then why should we place that value on him?

[bitonti]

If i read this correctly you are saying don't turn down the 1st round pick. Which is fairly reasonable. 

 

the question I have for you is why are the Bucs ambitious after a 7-9 season 4th in Nfc south while the Jets are screwed and rebuilding after 6-10 and 3rd in the AFC east. 

 

the easy answer is that the Bucs are wrong. But I wonder... 

[T0mShane]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

[unbanmadmike1]

I think Revis' value is TBD at this point and the Jets are doing the right thing letting this play out.

[slats]

Totally agree that it's all speculation until we see the value of the contract Revis signs. If the Jets get the #13 this year, and -say- a second next year, and Tampa pays Revis in excess of $12M/year, I'd say the Jets made a good move.

Bonus points if Revis holds out in the next two years.

[JADEDGREEN]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

 

So Tanny = Genius

[T0mShane]

Bonus points if Revis holds out in the next two years.

Pat Peterson is the next guy whose contract will trigger a Revis holdout, and Peterson's current deal only runs through 2014, which means that Arizona is going to have to sign him to huuuuuuuuge dollars after this season.

[T0mShane]

So Tanny = Genius

?

[CrazyCarl40]

If i read this correctly you are saying don't turn down the 1st round pick. Which is fairly reasonable. 

 

the question I have for you is why are the Bucs ambitious after a 7-9 season 4th in Nfc south while the Jets are screwed and rebuilding after 6-10 and 3rd in the AFC east. 

 

the easy answer is that the Bucs are wrong. But I wonder... 

 

Well, the easy answer is Freeman is a much better QB than anything the Jets have. Doug Martin is a much better running back than anything the Jets have.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are better receivers than the Jets have.  Hell, even old man Dallas Clark was a better TE last year than anything the Jets have.

 

And now, they have some pretty good defensive players too.  Tampa has a very good offensive squad but they couldn't stop the pass.  They have addressed that area of need and with someone like Darrelle Revis they could take the next step and easily be the 2nd place team ("4th" place was semantics) and a contender for a wild card. 

 

The Jets with Revis are still a 6-10 or worse team this coming season.  The Bucs with Revis and other additions could easily be 10-6 or better.

[JADEDGREEN]

?

 

You know!

 

P.S. Rex is insisting we are not shopping Revis, and we are going to be deadly this year.*

 

*Not as deadly has when he guarantees Super Bowls though.

[slats]

?

This is a valid reply to every JADEDGREEN post.

[JADEDGREEN]

This is a valid reply to every JADEDGREEN post.

 

What about every Brooklyn Jet post?

[Thor99]

What about every Brooklyn Jet post?

I'll miss you most of all, Scarecrow.

[Sperm Edwards]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

 

Idzik would not love that.

 

In the rosy scenario you've outlined, Revis plays out the year with a $9M cap hit in 2013.  To start 2014, Revis naturally voids the last 3 years of his deal so he becomes a FA the Jets have no rights or ties to (other than a 2015 compensatory draft pick).  Upon Revis voiding those last 3 years, the Jets would incur an accelerated $9M cap hit in 2014.  So if the Jets were to re-sign him, his 2014 cap number is the year-1 cap figure of his new contract plus $9M.  So IMO, Idzik would not love that.

 

And Revis option #2 isn't only bad for Revis.  It's bad for the Jets as well because instead of taking the best offer in the 2013 off-season/pre-season, we also will end up with nothing (other than the 2013 regular season with Revis, however long that is prior to that new injury).

[JADEDGREEN]

I'll miss you most of all, Scarecrow.

 

Oh Thorithy <3

[unbanmadmike1]

IMO, the major assumption we're all making is that Revis should and will make the $14-$16 mil that he's alleged to be seeking. It's a tough sell--as I'm sure he's finding out as we speak--when the next most expensive corners are averaging $9 mil per. Idzik is cagey here in that he's letting Schwartz and Feinsod go and find out exactly what Revis will bear on the open market. Tampa has no financial restrictions on them cap-wise, so they can pay Revis whatever they want (being perhaps the only team that can do as such). If Tampa is telling Revis' people he's only worth $12 mil, then he's worth $12 mil everywhere. That would be the market for the foreseeable future. Revis' value as a tradeable commodity isn't in question as much as Revis's value expressed in dollars.

Does Revis want to risk going into UFA next year when the salaries will be suppressed again, where he gets a 3 year/$27 million dollar contract shoved down his throat? Conversely, I think Idzik would love for Revis to hit UFA next year so he can find out (again) that the market value of a corner is not $16 mil per, at which point Revis will come back with his hat in his hand.

So, Revis' options are 1. Take the extension that the Bucs are offering, or 2. Play this season for a measly $6 mil on a bad team, all the while praying that nobody chop-blocks your knee. Idzik can just sit back and let it play out. There is zero urgency on his part to do anything.

If Revis is allowed to become a UFA there is no way he's coming back here.

[stoicsentry]

Couldn't this line of reasoning be used to justify trading almost ANY player? Why not throw Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson and JJ Waat into the mix? Couldn't you say the same for all of them?

[T0mShane]

Idzik would not love that.

In the rosy scenario you've outlined, Revis plays out the year with a $9M cap hit in 2013. To start 2014, Revis naturally voids the last 3 years of his deal so he becomes a FA the Jets have no rights or ties to (other than a 2015 compensatory draft pick). Upon Revis voiding those last 3 years, the Jets would incur an accelerated $9M cap hit in 2014. So if the Jets were to re-sign him, his 2014 cap number is the year-1 cap figure of his new contract plus $9M. So IMO, Idzik would not love that.

And Revis option #2 isn't only bad for Revis. It's bad for the Jets as well because instead of taking the best offer in the 2013 off-season/pre-season, we also will end up with nothing (other than the 2013 regular season with Revis, however long that is prior to that new injury).

I think he'll be traded, personally, but I also think its becoming clearer that teams are colluding to suppress top-dollar salaries, so I don't think Revis will ever see $15-$16 mil per, (nor will Pat Peterson). If and when Schwartz and Feinsod also come to that realization, they might find that remaining with the Jets is as worthwhile as leaving the Jets, especially if they get the $9 mil + in cash up front. It becomes a bitch if Revis walks, but unless Jerry Jones sweeps in with an absurd superdeal, I'm not sure that any owner or GM is going to break ranks to overpay Revis.

[Sperm Edwards]

Couldn't this line of reasoning be used to justify trading almost ANY player?

 

Yes.  Everyone has a certain value.  The only thing that complicates things are the cap implications from a given player's originating team if a lot of bonus money has been paid.  

 

How many draft picks would the Jets pay to acquire Aaron Rodgers? 5 number 1 picks? More? Everyone has a value above which no one will out-bid (or turn down).

 

But even if the top offer for Revis ends up being a mid-#1 in a top-weak draft plus whatever else, I'm sure Idzik will pass that on to any other potentially-interested team to see if they'll outbid it.  If the Jets turn it down, then the Jets are trading away those picks for Revis with a contract that will be voided after this rebuild season that won't result in a SB with or without Revis.

[unbanmadmike1]

Sperm Edwards, on 19 Mar 2013 - 11:21, said:

Yes. Everyone has a certain value. The only thing that complicates things are the cap implications from a given player's originating team if a lot of bonus money has been paid.

How many draft picks would the Jets pay to acquire Aaron Rodgers? 5 number 1 picks? More? Everyone has a value above which no one will out-bid (or turn down).

But even if the top offer for Revis ends up being a mid-#1 in a top-weak draft plus whatever else, I'm sure Idzik will pass that on to any other potentially-interested team to see if they'll outbid it. If the Jets turn it down, then the Jets are trading away those picks for Revis with a contract that will be voided after this rebuild season that won't result in a SB with or without Revis.

Yeah but the outcome of the negotiation isn't set in stone. How the Jets handle it will determine what they get.

[T0mShane]

If Revis is allowed to become a UFA there is no way he's coming back here.

My point is, if no team comes up with the $15 mil figure (and, looking at this offseason, teams are refusing to spend all of a sudden), then the Jets become the favorite to re-sign him. Also, what's to stop Idzik in mid-season?

[JustInFudge]

Couldn't this line of reasoning be used to justify trading almost ANY player? Why not throw Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson and JJ Waat into the mix? Couldn't you say the same for all of them?

 

Because they dont have a passion for holding out/complaining to the media about their contract every year?

[Sperm Edwards]

I think he'll be traded, personally, but I also think its becoming clearer that teams are colluding to suppress top-dollar salaries, so I don't think Revis will ever see $15-$16 mil per, (nor will Pat Peterson). If and when Schwartz and Feinsod also come to that realization, they might find that remaining with the Jets is as worthwhile as leaving the Jets, especially if they get the $9 mil + in cash up front. It becomes a bitch if Revis walks, but unless Jerry Jones sweeps in with an absurd superdeal, I'm not sure that any owner or GM is going to break ranks to overpay Revis.

 

I don't think there's the collusion you're alleging.  If they've all colluded to keep the CB prices down, one GM (or owner) isn't going to value the brotherhood of his fellow conspirators over a far better shot at a SB ring in a season where they're already contenders.

 

If no one breaks ranks to overpay Revis it's going to be because they don't think he's worth it, not because they all decided so at the last Illuminati meeting.

[T0mShane]

I don't think there's the collusion you're alleging. If they've all colluded to keep the CB prices down, one GM (or owner) isn't going to value the brotherhood of his fellow conspirators over a far better shot at a SB ring in a season where they're already contenders.

If no one breaks ranks to overpay Revis it's going to be because they don't think he's worth it, not because they all decided so at the last Illuminati meeting.

The best trick the Illiminati ever pulled was convincing the world that the Illuminati wasn't influencing the Revis trade.

[Sperm Edwards]

Yeah but the outcome of the negotiation isn't set in stone. How the Jets handle it will determine what they get.

 

In the end, the top bid is the top bid.  We're still early enough into the new season that there is time to make the necessary calls around the league after receiving TB's top offer.  If today was the morning of the draft or the last day before a bonus was due, then added pressure on the Jets could prevent them getting the best deal.  That doesn't seem to be likely to happen (particularly since we've already paid his roster bonus for the year, though that would have been negated by a new contract anyway if a deal was struck earlier).

[Sperm Edwards]

The best trick the Illiminati ever pulled was convincing the world that the Illuminati wasn't influencing the Revis trade.

 

No, the best trick they pulled was convincing so many semi-literates that Dan Brown is/was a great writer.

[whodeawhodat]

Penis, I cant agree that by not accepting the deal tampa has proposed we are outbidding the other teams.  Idzik is in no rush to sell, time is on his side.  the asset is his. buyers need to come to idzik, it is that simple. I dont buy that Tampa is the only buyer. There are a few other teams taht would love to have Revis, they just need to realize what he is worth to them and if it matches up to what Idzik says he is worth, we have a deal.  If not, Revis remains with us until either Idzik lowers his requests or another team increases its offer.  Very simple and in no way does turning Tampa away today preclude us from making a deal at a later date with anyone, including Tampa. 

[T0mShane]

No, the best trick they pulled was convincing so many semi-literates that Dan Brown is/was a great writer.

Fifty Shades makes The DaVinci Code look like Great Expectations.

[unbanmadmike1]

No, the best trick they pulled was convincing so many semi-literates that Dan Brown is/was a great writer.

+1

[Sperm Edwards]

Penis, I cant agree that by not accepting the deal tampa has proposed we are outbidding the other teams.  Idzik is in no rush to sell, time is on his side.  the asset is his. buyers need to come to idzik, it is that simple. I dont buy that Tampa is the only buyer. There are a few other teams taht would love to have Revis, they just need to realize what he is worth to them and if it matches up to what Idzik says he is worth, we have a deal.  If not, Revis remains with us until either Idzik lowers his requests or another team increases its offer.  Very simple and in no way does turning Tampa away today preclude us from making a deal at a later date with anyone, including Tampa. 

 

Vagina, I do not assume that after TB makes their top offer that Idzik doesn't tell any other teams before signing papers with the Bucs.  Also you are putting words in my mouth that assumes we have to take TB's top offer today, which I did not say.  What I did say is that ultimately there will be an offer by one team that the other 30 teams will not match or outbid.  By turning down the top offer, whether that comes from TB or someone else, we are effectively outbidding the top bidder, meaning we have effectively outbid 31 other teams by setting a price higher than anyone else is willing to pay.

[JADEDGREEN]

Fifty Shades makes The DaVinci Code look like Great Expectations.

 

Testicles, Great Expectations is a KISS song.

[Jet27]

Take as part of the price, the contract required to sign Revis.  Add to that the top offer we get out of all 31 other teams.  Say that's this year's #13 plus whatever (plus nothing else; plus a #2 or #3 next year; whatever), as is the present rumor.

 

With any other team's cost being $3M/year less than it would cost the Jets (which it is), if the top offer is this year's #13 plus whatever, why should we turn that down?  This would represent the best offer from any other NFL team.  This means it is the market-setting offer for Revis. By turning down that top offer we are effectively outbidding all 31 other teams.  Whatever the top deal is, if we turn it down it is the same as outbidding that team because we are surrendering those picks offered to us by the top-bidding team.  But it's worse.  We're outbidding that on top of the $3M/year additional it costs us compared to anyone else.  In other words, if Revis was $3M/year more expensive, his top offer would surely be even less.

Why is Revis worth more to the Jets in (a) draft pick value, and (b) in annual compensation, than to any other NFL team? Consider the things that decrease his trade value:

• History of lengthy holdout? check.
• History of publicly indicating he might not show up to camp after pocketing $24M the prior season? check.
• History of not-serious/nagging type injury during the season due to showing up out of shape after an extended holdout? check.
• History of serious injury? check.
• Hasn't seen an NFL field since that serious injury? check.

With all that, he still has tremendous value.  But it isn't the same as though he was a great, great CB with no check-marks next to all of these value-reducing traits.  

 

So if 31 other NFL teams don't think today he's worth two #1's "at least" (as some here have repeatedly indicated), even if they're very late #1 picks, then why should we place that value on him?

 

IMO, Trading Revis now (as the rumor has him going to Bucs) makes pure sense on one hand. And makes no sense on the other hand.

 

This is a gamble big time with one of the top 10 best NFL players today. He knows it.

 

The missing link in all of this is actually his physical condition and if he can come back 100% from the injury and that is an unknown thus trading him to some other team for a No. 1 makes pure sense.

 

I am know so sure about trading a home grown player of his caliber. But I hope if they do trade him we do get good value from it. And I hope all the best to Revis as long as he is far away from an AFC East team as can possible be.

[Jetsfan80]

Fifty Shades makes The DaVinci Code look like Great Expectations.

 

So you've read Fifty Shades.

[j4jets]

Idzik would not love that.

 

In the rosy scenario you've outlined, Revis plays out the year with a $9M cap hit in 2013.  To start 2014, Revis naturally voids the last 3 years of his deal so he becomes a FA the Jets have no rights or ties to (other than a 2015 compensatory draft pick).  Upon Revis voiding those last 3 years, the Jets would incur an accelerated $9M cap hit in 2014.  So if the Jets were to re-sign him, his 2014 cap number is the year-1 cap figure of his new contract plus $9M.  So IMO, Idzik would not love that.

 

And Revis option #2 isn't only bad for Revis.  It's bad for the Jets as well because instead of taking the best offer in the 2013 off-season/pre-season, we also will end up with nothing (other than the 2013 regular season with Revis, however long that is prior to that new injury).

 

 

This is how I look at it. Jets are on the hook for his $9mil in ANY CASE. Thats a sunk cost that should never have any bearing on future business decisions (or football decisions). Jets will have the same amount of cap space when negotiating with Revis in any case. Give him a 5 year $60 mil contract with $30 mil guaranteed. $15mil signing bonus and first two years of guaranteed base.

 

First year base: 7 mil

second year base: 8 mil

Third year base: 8 Mil

Fourth year base: 11 mil

Fifth Year base: 11 Mil

 

Cap charges:

 

2014: $10 mil

2015: $11 mil

2016: $11 mil (cap savings if released $2 mil)

2017: $14 mil (cap savings if released $8 mil)

2018: $14 mil (cap savings if released $11 mil)

 

Essentially making it a 3 years, 38 mil, or 4 years $49 mil contract (or even a 2 yr 30 mil contract and then trade) .Something like that would be ideal and give the Jets the chance to release him while he turns 31 or 32 and not take on that $14mil cap charge in 2017 or 2018. Its still manageable cap charge pretty much through out till then (contrary to the $14-16mil he is assumed to be targetting) and still gives Revis almost $13mil a season if he stays 3 more years. Probably include incentives in there too to protect us against Revis not being himself after the injury.

[j4jets]

I think he'll be traded, personally, but I also think its becoming clearer that teams are colluding to suppress top-dollar salaries, so I don't think Revis will ever see $15-$16 mil per, (nor will Pat Peterson). If and when Schwartz and Feinsod also come to that realization, they might find that remaining with the Jets is as worthwhile as leaving the Jets, especially if they get the $9 mil + in cash up front. It becomes a bitch if Revis walks, but unless Jerry Jones sweeps in with an absurd superdeal, I'm not sure that any owner or GM is going to break ranks to overpay Revis.

 

Thats a real possibility with them having $177k in cap space. I know you were just trying to make a point, but even Jerry is being held back by his son, Stephen Jones, now.