Would You Give Up A Basket To Get The Last Shot?

[kelticwizard]

Team A just scored to go one point ahead with 20 seconds to go.  Now Team B brings the ball down the court.

 

In many ways, Team B is in the driver's seat here.  Yes, they have to make the basket to win, but since they will probably not shoot before five seconds left on the clock, by the time Team A gets the ball back there will be very little chance to score.

 

If you were Team A, would you just lay back and let Team B score right away before playing defense?  If you get the ball back with 12 seconds or so to play, now you probably would have the advantage. I'd rather be one point down with the ball with 12 seconds to go than one point up and have to play defense.

 

Are you better off just letting the other team score quickly, and only playing defense with 12 seconds to go?

[JustInFudge]

So team A is just sitting their asking team B to score?  

 

I think this is a horrible strategy unless you have Michael Jordan.  Otherwise, play D for the win.  I dont know the stats but the odds I guarantee are wayyyyy in favor of a team playing D to win compared to the team trying to score with 12 secs left on the clock. 

[kelticwizard]

I'm getting tired of seeing a team I cheer for go one point ahead ahead with maybe 25 seconds remaining only to lose when the other team slowly takes the ball up, makes some sharp passes and gets a good shot off with 6 seconds to go.  Almost always they either make the shot or get fouled.

 

About the only way to stop a quality team in that situation is to deflect a pass or knock the ball away to break up the play and force someone to take the final shot out of position.

 

I don't have the stats handy, but I would wager that the team one point down with 25 seconds to go wins the game well over 50% of the time.

 

 

[Larz]

um, no.

 

call a timeout, get the ball at halfcourt

 

alley oop to JR

 

epic win

[SMC]

It's actually far easier to play defense in those final seconds than to score a winning basket. The NBA game winnng sot average is only about .300.

 

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

 

So allowing Team B to score completely eliminates Team A's advantage in the closing seconds.

[kelticwizard]

It's actually far easier to play defense in those final seconds than to score a winning basket. The NBA game winnng sot average is only about .300.

 

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

 

So allowing Team B to score completely eliminates Team A's advantage in the closing seconds.

 

The trouble with those statistics is that they rate the shooting percentage with 24 seconds or less.  That means a high percentage of the stat will be for cases where the winning basket was scored with 2 seconds to go and the team that is behind has little choice but to inbound the ball to a player who then simply turns and hoists up a Hail Mary far from the basket.  Obviously, those are extremely low percentage shots.

 

For the statistic to be useful, we would need to know the outcome of the game when the team 1 or 2 points behind takes possession of the ball with at least 12 seconds remaining. Even shooting percentage wouldn't tell the whole story, because frequently the shooter is fouled with a couple of seconds remaining and his free throws put his team ahead for good.

[SMC]

The trouble with those statistics is that they rate the shooting percentage with 24 seconds or less.  That means a high percentage of the stat will be for cases where the winning basket was scored with 2 seconds to go and the team that is behind has little choice but to inbound the ball to a player who then simply turns and hoists up a Hail Mary far from the basket.  Obviously, those are extremely low percentage shots.

 

For the statistic to be useful, we would need to know the outcome of the game when the team 1 or 2 points behind takes possession of the ball with at least 12 seconds remaining. Even shooting percentage wouldn't tell the whole story, because frequently the shooter is fouled with a couple of seconds remaining and his free throws put his team ahead for good.

Last second shots are even worse.  Again, those gamewinning shots are actually the toughest to hit.

 

The best course of action is to defend, not purposely give up a basket as per your question.