Chris Ivory Visits, Jets Make Offer

[hotcoles87]

You are seriously telling me that you think those guys aren't worth a 5th round pick?  Larry Johnson?  For a 5th round pick?  Lunacy.  The money is more important.  Obviously, we want the pick to be as low as possible, but these magical low round RBs are not the sure things everybody thinks. 

Yes I am saying that.  In Johnsons case, I'm obviously not referring to the years when he was a top back, or a high upside guy buried behind priest holmes, but the last 3-4 years in his career when he couldn't stay on the field and was horrendous.  These guys were all more relevant than Chris Ivory at some point, and they were all out of the league shortly after.  Why?  Because backs have a short lifespan as it is, and injuries compound that.  Ivory has had signifigant injuries every year since college, and that's with him only being a part time player.  You think a guy with this kind of injury history is going to suddenly going to contribute 800 yards a season for 3-4 years and earn his $2 million or so salary?  No.  There is a much better chance of him being out of the league after this season.  Backs like Ivory are a dime a dozen.  I rattled off 5 backs I'd rather have than him that were drafted in rounds 4-7 in last years draft alone.  If you hit on a back in the late rounds, it's like winning the lotto.  Young, hungry guy with upside, and only on the books for half million or so vs a guy who went 7 years in a row with injuries dating back to college, had 217 yards last year, like 350 the year before. 

[hotcoles87]

You mean an offense that averaged 4.3 a carry?

 

My original point is that it's not a slam dunk that you don't make this trade. It's been my experience that people who live in a world of absolutes usually have the worst judgement.

 

I'd rather gamble on Ivory staying healthy and being the beast he has shown flashes of, at the professional level, not college, than try to find a gem in the 4th round.

YPC is BS unless you're talking about a guy with at least 200 carries in a season.  Ivory had 40 carries last year.  You take away his best run, and it's a 4.13 average.  Not to discredit that one run, but it goes to show you how quickly that stat can change when you are talking about such a limited amount of carries.  With that small body of work, it's like looking at a baseball players stats in May and saying he's going to have a .450 average, 200 RBIs and 92 HR's at the end of the year.

[Gastineau Lives]

YPC is BS unless you're talking about a guy with at least 200 carries in a season.  Ivory had 40 carries last year.  You take away his best run, and it's a 4.13 average.  Not to discredit that one run, but it goes to show you how quickly that stat can change when you are talking about such a limited amount of carries.  With that small body of work, it's like looking at a baseball players stats in May and saying he's going to have a .450 average, 200 RBIs and 92 HR's at the end of the year.

Well, this is 5.1 over more than 200 carries, but I can still see your point about this particular player. I just think I'd rather take a gamble on a guy who has had carries in the pros than a guy who is a fourth round talent with no professional experience whatsoever. You could play out this scenario a hundred times and I'd be right a bunch of times and you would be right a bunch of times and they'd both suck probably more often than either one of us were right.

[#27TheDominator]

Yes I am saying that.  In Johnsons case, I'm obviously not referring to the years when he was a top back, or a high upside guy buried behind priest holmes, but the last 3-4 years in his career when he couldn't stay on the field and was horrendous.  These guys were all more relevant than Chris Ivory at some point, and they were all out of the league shortly after.  Why?  Because backs have a short lifespan as it is, and injuries compound that.  Ivory has had signifigant injuries every year since college, and that's with him only being a part time player.  You think a guy with this kind of injury history is going to suddenly going to contribute 800 yards a season for 3-4 years and earn his $2 million or so salary?  No.  There is a much better chance of him being out of the league after this season.  Backs like Ivory are a dime a dozen.  I rattled off 5 backs I'd rather have than him that were drafted in rounds 4-7 in last years draft alone.  If you hit on a back in the late rounds, it's like winning the lotto.  Young, hungry guy with upside, and only on the books for half million or so vs a guy who went 7 years in a row with injuries dating back to college, had 217 yards last year, like 350 the year before. 

 

 

I wouldn't trade a third for that Walter Payton!  He only had 3.7 ypc his last year in the league!

[hotcoles87]

I wouldn't trade a third for that Walter Payton!  He only had 3.7 ypc his last year in the league!

Because so many of those guys I listed had careers just like Walter Peyton.

[hotcoles87]

Well, this is 5.1 over more than 200 carries, but I can still see your point about this particular player. I just think I'd rather take a gamble on a guy who has had carries in the pros than a guy who is a fourth round talent with no professional experience whatsoever. You could play out this scenario a hundred times and I'd be right a bunch of times and you would be right a bunch of times and they'd both suck probably more often than either one of us were right.

That's pretty funny, and probably true.  I'll admit-- part if my frustration with potentially trading for Ivory comes from following these prospects, and falling in love with their potential.  In my mind, there are 5-10 players that I'd love in each round, and think can be good pros--- when Chris Ivory threatens to steal one of those beloved picks from me, I get defensive!!  Some will be studs- some will be bums.  As a whole, I'd prefer to build through the draft- especially now that we are pretty much in re-building mode.

 

5.1 ypc is certainly good.  It's not the end all, but it does show that Ivory has some talent.  It's not the talent I'm worried about though, it's the injuries, the sustainability, and the contract. 

[#27TheDominator]

Because so many of those guys I listed had careers just like Walter Peyton.

 

 

LARRY JOHNSON.  If you could trade a fifth for Larry Johnson before the 2004 or 2005 season you wouldn't do it?  The guy was the best back in football for a couple of years.  I do not understand how you can possibly defend listing a guy who was the best back in football as a guy you wouldn't trade a mid to late round pick on. 

[Sperm Edwards]

This is not a good argument.  You can look at some our our sh*tty selections and say that 4-5th rounders are worthless, and I can pick plenty of 4-5 rounders who are good players.  This is also considered to be a very deep draft. 

 

Draft picks are unproven, yes.  But Chris Ivory has proven to be an injury prone backup.  How is Chris Ivory any less of a risk than a rookie?  He's only had limited snaps in the best offense in the NFL.  Been injured every year, and had mediocre production.  Think about running backs and how many of them come and go after a few good games.  Think about some of these guys for a minute... Kevin Barlow, Derrick Blaylock, Lendale White, Chris Brown, Larry Johnson, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, Travis Henry, Ahman Green, Carnell Williams, Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, Michael Pittman-- I could go on and on with runningbacks who appeared to be good players based on a small body of work, but ended up crapping the bed shortly after.  Chris Ivory has a much better chance of being one of these forgotten players than having a career path like Michael Turner.

 

As for my assessment of late round picks from the last few drafts-- Lamarr Miller, Robert Turbin, Daryl Richardson, Bryce Brown, Alfred Morris were all picked between rounds 4-7.  I would take every one of those guys over Ivory in a heartbeat, and this draft is much deeper at RB than last year.

 

I doubt very much that Green Bay regrets trading for Ahman Green.  I'm not saying this is anything close to a sure thing to pull the trigger on, and I'm certainly not eager to trade draft picks away, but if we miss out on the next Ahman Green because we didn't trade a late round pick for Chris Ivory I'll be pretty pissed.  

[hotcoles87]

LARRY JOHNSON.  If you could trade a fifth for Larry Johnson before the 2004 or 2005 season you wouldn't do it?  The guy was the best back in football for a couple of years.  I do not understand how you can possibly defend listing a guy who was the best back in football as a guy you wouldn't trade a mid to late round pick on. 

You are either too stupid to realize what I said, or you are intentionally trying to start $hit.  What did I just write about LJ?  "In Johnsons case, I'm obviously not referring to the years when he was a top back, or a high upside guy buried behind priest holmes, but the last 3-4 years in his career when he couldn't stay on the field and was horrendous."  You know, those years when he was injured, and looked like Chris Ivory.

 

The only reason why he was on the list was because I came up with a handful of guys who used to be relevant, but crapped out early due to injuries, like I suspect Ivory will do.  I love how you pick the one questionable guy on the list and try to peg me down with it, knowing exactly which Larry Johnson I was talking about.  In hindsight, I shouldn't have even mentioned his name in the same breath as Chris Ivory, even if I was just referring to his last few sh*tty seasons.

 

So, let me sum it up for you again.   When LJ was young, and full of promise, and stuck behind the best RB in the league, or during his 2 big seasons when he was a top back, yes, I would trade a 5th round pick for him, and would pay him the contract to go with it.  When he was in the last few years of his career, and was playing like Chris Ivory, no, I wouldn't trade a 5th round pick for him.

[#27TheDominator]

You are either too stupid to realize what I said, or you are intentionally trying to start $hit.  What did I just write about LJ?  "In Johnsons case, I'm obviously not referring to the years when he was a top back, or a high upside guy buried behind priest holmes, but the last 3-4 years in his career when he couldn't stay on the field and was horrendous."  You know, those years when he was injured, and looked like Chris Ivory.

 

The only reason why he was on the list was because I came up with a handful of guys who used to be relevant, but crapped out early due to injuries, like I suspect Ivory will do.  I love how you pick the one questionable guy on the list and try to peg me down with it, knowing exactly which Larry Johnson I was talking about.  In hindsight, I shouldn't have even mentioned his name in the same breath as Chris Ivory, even if I was just referring to his last few sh*tty seasons.

 

So, let me sum it up for you again.   When LJ was young, and full of promise, and stuck behind the best RB in the league, or during his 2 big seasons when he was a top back, yes, I would trade a 5th round pick for him, and would pay him the contract to go with it.  When he was in the last few years of his career, and was playing like Chris Ivory, no, I wouldn't trade a 5th round pick for him.

 

 

Is Chris Ivory at the end of a long career where he had unprecedented carries or is he a young back on a team with a stacked backfield?  

 

I'm stupid, but your comment is basically like saying that yuou wouldn't trade a mid-round pick for Curtis Martin in 2006.  I can't understand why you aren't running an NFL franchise with insight like that. 

 

I'm not trying to start sh*t. I'm trying to point out that using a guy who did nothing for his first two years and then became the best back in football is not a good idea when you are trying to say that they shouldn't trade a mid round pick for a back. You say it yourself in the portion I bolded.  Larry Johnson "flamed out" at 28.  Chris Ivory is 24 years old.  I'm not saying they have to trade for Ivory, just that Larry Johnson is a stupid player to mention. 

 

Additional "stupid" items.  Larry Johnson was the same age that Ivory is now when he came into the league and Larry Johnson is 70th all time rushing.  Sounds like he didn't break down ultra fast.

[hotcoles87]

I doubt very much that Green Bay regrets trading for Ahman Green.  I'm not saying this is anything close to a sure thing to pull the trigger on, and I'm certainly not eager to trade draft picks away, but if we miss out on the next Ahman Green because we didn't trade a late round pick for Chris Ivory I'll be pretty pissed.  

Chris Ivory is no Ahman Green.  The Ahman Green I'm talking about in collelation with Ivory is obviously not the guy who ran for 1200+ yards for like 6 years straight, but the one who started 6 games in his last 3 years due to injuries and crapped out of the league mid contract.

 

Mentioning his name with these guys is to show one thing.  Once a RB starts getting injured, it's an uphill battle.  He's had 6-7 years in a row with injuries and they are going to catch up to him very quickly, if they haven't already.  Again, I'm not saying I'd freak out if we spent a 6-7 rounder on him, but if it's a 3-4, I'm questioning our new GM.  It it's a 5th, I'm pretty disappointed.  I would prefer to grab one of the more talented guys in the draft this year that trade for Chris Ivory. 

 

What everyone also forgets is we are only going to carry 3 RB's on the active roster, so what we are really doing is trading Joe McKnight, a pick, and taking on about 1.5 million dollars in extra salary for Chris Ivory.  That's not a good deal to me.

[Sperm Edwards]

Chris Ivory is no Ahman Green.  The Ahman Green I'm talking about in collelation with Ivory is obviously not the guy who ran for 1200+ yards for like 6 years straight, but the one who started 6 games in his last 3 years due to injuries and crapped out of the league mid contract.

 

Mentioning his name with these guys is to show one thing.  Once a RB starts getting injured, it's an uphill battle.  He's had 6-7 years in a row with injuries and they are going to catch up to him very quickly, if they haven't already.  Again, I'm not saying I'd freak out if we spent a 6-7 rounder on him, but if it's a 3-4, I'm questioning our new GM.  It it's a 5th, I'm pretty disappointed.  I would prefer to grab one of the more talented guys in the draft this year that trade for Chris Ivory. 

 

What everyone also forgets is we are only going to carry 3 RB's on the active roster, so what we are really doing is trading Joe McKnight, a pick, and taking on about 1.5 million dollars in extra salary for Chris Ivory.  That's not a good deal to me.

 

I'm sure Seattle was of the opinion that Ahman Green was no Ahman Green when they traded him and their 5th rounder for Fred Vinson and GB's 6th rounder.

[denden29]

Ivory would look good in green

[pedro55]

Is Chris Ivory at the end of a long career where he had unprecedented carries or is he a young back on a team with a stacked backfield?  

 

I'm stupid, but your comment is basically like saying that yuou wouldn't trade a mid-round pick for Curtis Martin in 2006.  I can't understand why you aren't running an NFL franchise with insight like that. 

 

I'm not trying to start sh*t. I'm trying to point out that using a guy who did nothing for his first two years and then became the best back in football is not a good idea when you are trying to say that they shouldn't trade a mid round pick for a back. You say it yourself in the portion I bolded.  Larry Johnson "flamed out" at 28.  Chris Ivory is 24 years old.  I'm not saying they have to trade for Ivory, just that Larry Johnson is a stupid player to mention. 

 

Additional "stupid" items.  Larry Johnson was the same age that Ivory is now when he came into the league and Larry Johnson is 70th all time rushing.  Sounds like he didn't break down ultra fast.

 

  This is a dumb argument. Larry Johnson ?  Seriously.  The guy had 2000 yards rushing in one season for Penn state and was in the Heisman hunt.  The Chiefs thought enough of him that they drafted him in the first round.  I repeat first round.   Maybe he was stuck behind Holmes.  Maybe he didn't get a fair shake at first.  But how do you compare Larry Johnson to Chris Ivory?  One guy could have won a heisman.  Another guy couldn't stay healthy or start in college.   One guy gets drafted in the first round.   The other guy doesn't even get drafted.  And by year 3, Johnson rushed for 1700 yards.

 

You mention Turner.  Another guy who rushed for almost 2000 yards in one season in college.   He was drafted in the 5th round.  And many people in San Diego thought Turner would eventually replace LT.   It was one of those things. Some people wanted Turner to take over, others wanted LT to be LT and end his career in San Diego.   And a lt of fans weren't happy Turner was dumped.   It was what it was and when he went to Atlanta, a lot of people assumed he would do what he did.    Who is assuming Ivory will go to the Jets and be some Pro bowl RB?

 

 

 

 Ivory. Guy never even rushed for 1000 yards in a season in college.   The guy has barely played in the NFL.  And he wasn't even drafted.  

It's a terrible comparison to use guys like Larry Johnson and Turner as examples.   Johnson was a baby, but was supposed to take over for Priest Holmes.  

Turner was supposed to take over for LT.  Johnson did, Turner left and became a beast as he was expected to.     Ivory isn't expected to take over in New Orleans and if the Jets sign him, nobody would be surprised if the guy had 500 yards rushing.    That is not worth $2 million.

 

 The difference in risk?   Some 4th rounder is cheap for a few years.   Ivory at 2 mil per year for say 3 years,  thats a waste of money.

[#27TheDominator]

  This is a dumb argument. Larry Johnson ?  Seriously.  The guy had 2000 yards rushing in one season for Penn state and was in the Heisman hunt.  The Chiefs thought enough of him that they drafted him in the first round.  I repeat first round.   Maybe he was stuck behind Holmes.  Maybe he didn't get a fair shake at first.  But how do you compare Larry Johnson to Chris Ivory?  One guy could have won a heisman.  Another guy couldn't stay healthy or start in college.   One guy gets drafted in the first round.   The other guy doesn't even get drafted.  And by year 3, Johnson rushed for 1700 yards.

 

You mention Turner.  Another guy who rushed for almost 2000 yards in one season in college.   He was drafted in the 5th round.  And many people in San Diego thought Turner would eventually replace LT.   It was one of those things. Some people wanted Turner to take over, others wanted LT to be LT and end his career in San Diego.   And a lt of fans weren't happy Turner was dumped.   It was what it was and when he went to Atlanta, a lot of people assumed he would do what he did.    Who is assuming Ivory will go to the Jets and be some Pro bowl RB?

 

 

 

 Ivory. Guy never even rushed for 1000 yards in a season in college.   The guy has barely played in the NFL.  And he wasn't even drafted.  

It's a terrible comparison to use guys like Larry Johnson and Turner as examples.   Johnson was a baby, but was supposed to take over for Priest Holmes.  

Turner was supposed to take over for LT.  Johnson did, Turner left and became a beast as he was expected to.     Ivory isn't expected to take over in New Orleans and if the Jets sign him, nobody would be surprised if the guy had 500 yards rushing.    That is not worth $2 million.

 

 The difference in risk?   Some 4th rounder is cheap for a few years.   Ivory at 2 mil per year for say 3 years,  thats a waste of money.

 

 

Who the hell are you fighting with?  1.  I NEVER mentioned Turner.  2. You can claim that Ivory is no Larry Johnson, but that is all the more reason why my point is correct, that Larry Johnson is a terrible player to use in a discussion about not trading a pick for a back. 

[pedro55]

Who the hell are you fighting with?  1.  I NEVER mentioned Turner.  2. You can claim that Ivory is no Larry Johnson, but that is all the more reason why my point is correct, that Larry Johnson is a terrible player to use in a discussion about not trading a pick for a back. 

 

 You mentioned Johnson, somebody mentioned Turner, thought it was you.     Like I said, Johnson was a heisman kind of RB, a first round pick,   a guy who took over for one of the best RBs in football for a couple of seasons and rushed for over 1700 yards. That was year #3.   And again he was a first round draft pick out of college.    Ivory has never been anything but a guy who is injured and even when he's not, he doesn't play.  

 

  A team trading for a Larry Johnson hopes they get Larry Johnson who rushed for 2000 yards in college or 1700 yards in a season.  

Somebody picking up Chris Ivory for a draft pick and 2 Mil per season is hoping for what?   That's just a bad move.  Even if the guy does stay healthy, what has he shown he can do?   Wow, he had a couple of good games his entire career(college and pro)...   Whereas guys like Johnson or Turner who people seem to bring up have shown that they can carry a team.

 

  The risk at taking Ivory vs some 4th round college kid is the same thing.   Except the college kid probably won't be injury prone. And the college kid would be far cheaper.

[hotcoles87]

I'm the one who brought up turner. I said that Ivory is more likely to end up as a back who craps out early due to injuries than he is to end up like turner. (A talented backup who shined when he got the full time role.)

Johnson was brought up with 10 other backs who's careers ended early due to injuries. Ever since then I've got this guy squawking about how Larry Johnson Curtis Martin and Walter Peyton are worth more than a 5th round pick while in their prime. Not much of an argument there.

The argument shouldnt be about LJ it's about Chris Ivory. I don't want to trade a 2/3/4/5 for him and some people do. Some people will blindly support any move a gm makes and like to trash those who have their own opinion. Nobody has been able to say hardly anything good about ivory in this meaningless thread. Just people arguing to argue. I argue that ivory will be out of the league soon due to injuries and don't feel he is worth the pick or the compensation. Even when healthy he's a jag.

[#27TheDominator]

Teams make this kind of deal all the time.  Sometimes you get Ahman Green, sometimes you get Justin McCareins.  I think if you trust your scouts you shouldn't be too fired up over losing a fifth round pick.  Idzik doesn't seem like he is trying to make a splash, he is going for value and if he thinks this kid is a value so be it.  The Jets tried to do the same thing with Austin a few years ago and if that hadn't fallen through they might have been in much better shape right now.

[CrazyCarl40]

@ConorTOrr: RT @MikeGarafolo: Saints announced they re-signed RB Chris Ivory after he visited the Jets. We'll see if this means he's staying.

[FoxJet]

Saints | Re-sign Chris Ivory 
Fri, 19 Apr 2013 13:15:27 -0700

The New Orleans Saints re-signed RB Chris Ivory Friday, April 19. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Comment | Source: NewOrleansSaints.com | Share:  

Read more: http://www.kffl.com/hotw/nfl#ixzz2QwY3du2T

[GangisGreen]

According to Mehta jets have made an offer to saints for ivory

[Gastineau Lives]

According to Mehta jets have made an offer to saints for ivory

That's what I'm talking about. If it's a fourth, I'm optimistic. If it's a fifth, I'm ecstatic.

[Thai Jet]

That's what I'm talking about. If it's a fourth, I'm optimistic. If it's a fifth, I'm ecstatic.

I'd be happy either way. I think the kids got talent and worth the pick.

[jetsman]

just maybe this could lead to a move for revis also. Saints could certainly use a DB. 

[itsJETStime]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000161900/article/chris-ivory-signs-tender-are-ny-jets-pursuing-trade

 

I would love to get him for a 5th or 4th rounder could really help the Jets backfield

[pointman]

I can't take you seriously with a username like that.

[pointman]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000161900/article/chris-ivory-signs-tender-are-ny-jets-pursuing-trade

 

I would love to get him for a 5th or 4th rounder could really help the Jets backfield

And the rumor is NO wants at least a 4th. So thats the posture they are taking. 

[itsJETStime]

I can't take you seriously with a username like that.

 

Haha I signed up with this username in 2009 during the playoff run. I would love to change my name but don't know how so I guess Im stuck with it

[pointman]

Haha I signed up with this username in 2009 during the playoff run. I would love to change my name but don't know how so I guess Im stuck with it

Look at the other forum sections. Ask in the proper one. The mods here are cool, I bet they would hook you up. 

[JayKwaz]

I would give them Mcknight and a 6th for Ivory.

[jack48]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000161900/article/chris-ivory-signs-tender-are-ny-jets-pursuing-trade

 

I would love to get him for a 5th or 4th rounder could really help the Jets backfield

guy cannot stay on the field.  I don't want guys like that.

[pedro55]

  I don't get how it's become almost a guarantee that the only guys Idzik seems to want are guys who can't stay healthy. Ever.  

And if they pay Ivory 2Mil per year, that's not cheap for an injury prone RB who has been a career backup in college and the pros.

[pedro55]

Teams make this kind of deal all the time.  Sometimes you get Ahman Green, sometimes you get Justin McCareins.  I think if you trust your scouts you shouldn't be too fired up over losing a fifth round pick.  Idzik doesn't seem like he is trying to make a splash, he is going for value and if he thinks this kid is a value so be it.  The Jets tried to do the same thing with Austin a few years ago and if that hadn't fallen through they might have been in much better shape right now.

  

 Value is a 4th round RB making less than 1 Million per year.  Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't.   Value isn't giving up a 4th round pick for a guy who has been injured his entire career and paying him 2 Million per year.  That's just a bad trade. Maybe you get lucky , maybe you don't, but it's still not good value.

[pointman]

I would give them Mcknight and a 6th for Ivory.

I'd rather give them Powell.

[SayNoToDMC]

I can't take you seriously with a username like that.

 

You can take him about as seriously as anything that originated from Manish Mehta, which is who came up with this