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Jets Not Likely to Draft Geno Smith


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I understand what the reports were saying, but I just don't buy that line of thinking.  If they think he's a starting caliber quarterback who can lead a team to a winning record and the playoffs, that's worth more than any other position on the field. Other people have different views, but I've always prescribed to the belief that if you don't have a QB, you do whatever you can to get one.  If he's good enough to lead your team in the middle of the first round, he's good enough to lead your team with the 9th overall selection. You don't think Ryan and Flacco would go 1-2 to Miami or St. Louis if they could do it again? 

 

Again, I'm not advocating for Smith at the 9th overall pick, I'm just saying if they pass on him, it's not because they think they'd be grabbing him a half dozen spots too early, it's because they just don't think he's a guy you can bring it to take over your team right away.

I'm sure they feel the same way, and value QB as much as you do. (I agree about QB value-- you need one to win)  They might just not like Geno Smith.  If you are trying to get laid at a bar, and want a supermodel, but the only thing left is a giant fat chick who just crapped her pants, are you going to take her home just so you can get laid, or are you going to look elseware to find a better girl?  (I'd probably fk the fat chick who crapped herself anyway, but that's me)

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I just think the word "respected" makes that whole sentence invalid. I said he's not in the top 20 you give me a guy who puts him at 19, does that disprove my point? Either way he's not a blue chip pick. 

 

as for the cold weather maybe he belongs in florida where the orange bowl is played. Mark probably should have never been drafted into the AFC east either. It happens. The clemson game was awesome if he played every game like that or baylor he's got rg3 stock and we aren't having this discussion. Consistency is a fair complaint with Geno. 

 

1. I think the word "most" made the whole sentence invalid. You chose to use it. got called on it, couldn't back it, and now your best is to focus on one of the guys I picked, another one who goes against your statement anyway.  THEN you *totally* ignore Brandt - a guy who carries way more weight than the likes of Russ Lande or Kiper/Schefter in the first place.

 

2. West Virginia is not a warm weather state bit. He started for 3 years there, remember? Sanchez's problem was not, is not, and never will be the ******* weather. Carson Palmer was just fine in the AFC North until his knee blew out. Pennington, another guy who went to school in West Virginia, did just fine here until he blew out his arm (and then blew it out again and again). 

 

3. So he has to put up 70 points in every game to get "RG3" stock? Are you being serious? That's what RG3 did to get his attention? Massive blowout after massive blowout? 

 

4. Consistency is a fair complaint with pretty much every prospect ever. That is why they are prospects/amateurs and not pros. Smith *consistently* put up high completion %s, low INT rates, more TDs than INTs, plenty of yards, and anything else you can ask from a QB. 

 

Again, you continue to penalize him based on not being Andrew Luck or RG3. It's a thoroughly nonsense knock. 

Edited by SenorGato
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1. I think the word "most" made the whole sentence invalid. You chose to use it. got called on it, couldn't back it, and now your best is to focus on one of the guys I picked, another one who goes against your statement anyway.  THEN you *totally* ignore Brandt - a guy who carries way more weight than the likes of Russ Lande or Kiper/Schefter in the first place.

 

2. West Virginia is not a warm weather state bit. He started for 3 years there, remember? Sanchez's problem was not, is not, and never will be the ******* weather. Carson Palmer was just fine in the AFC North until his knee blew out. Pennington, another guy who went to school in West Virginia, did just fine here until he blew out his arm (and then blew it out again and again). 

 

3. So he has to put up 70 points in every game to get "RG3" stock? Are you being serious? That's what RG3 did to get his attention? Massive blowout after massive blowout? 

 

4. Consistency is a fair complaint with pretty much every prospect ever. That is why they are prospects/amateurs and not pros. Smith *consistently* put up high completion %s, low INT rates, more TDs than INTs, plenty of yards, and anything else you can ask from a QB. 

 

Again, you continue to penalize him based on not being Andrew Luck or RG3. It's a thoroughly nonsense knock. 

 

 

1. you might be able to disprove my statement but you can't prove he's worth a top 10 pick.

 

2. Geno looked like garbage in the snow. even more important it was a national stage, everyone saw it (i believe it was xmas eve). he ended the year on 5 game losing streak and a bad bowl game. That's not good. 

 

3. Rg3 never looked like Geno in the pinstripe bowl. Or during the 5 game losing streak. Geno is up and down and when he gets down it's ugly. Consistency that's what he's missing. 

 

4. Look up Sanchez' completion percentage at USC. or Colt McCoy's at Texas. Or Brady Quinn at Notre Dame. just cause he's a stat monger doesn't make him a great prospect. Smarter guys than me have broken down Geno Smith's game point by point. I invite you to read Prisco's geno smith article it's based on actual film study. 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/21965093/geno-smith-has-potential-but-not-the-overall-game-to-be-a-top10-pick

 

also Mayock says he's not worth a top 10 pick. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000156971/article/mike-mayock-defends-writer-of-geno-smith-critique

Edited by bitonti
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Tom Brady too. And if life was fair i'd win the powerball. 

 

If life was fair none of us would be Jets fans.

 

My point still stands as a worthy retort.  And I don't know the first thing about Geno Smith (other than he's generally considered the top QB prospect in this year's draft, for whatever that's worth).  Never saw him play a single game.

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 19 isn't 20 but it's not a blue chip grade either.  we can just agree to disagree and see what happens. I don't see a natural spot for Geno in the top 10 of this draft. Also keep in mind the new CBA makes it better to draft him at 11 than at 9 (something about the 5th year being cheap if he isn't in the top 10)

This one is definitely in the running for weakest argument of the year.

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1. you might be able to disprove my statement but you can't prove he's worth a top 10 pick.

 

Never what I was working on, though as a QB with his tools and experience it would hardly be surprising for him to go high. He's a steal in the late first and certaily a better prospect than guys like Dalton, Ponder, and Freeman who went in the teens.

 

2. Geno looked like garbage in the snow. even more important it was a

national stage, everyone saw it (i believe it was xmas eve). he ended

the year on 5 game losing streak and a bad bowl game. That's not good.

 

No, it's not good but doubtful it's unprecedented. I have no idea what special meaning the snow adds, nor do I believe your one game snow sample size has all that much significiance.

 

 

3. Rg3 never looked like Geno in the pinstripe bowl. Or during the 5

game losing streak. Geno is up and down and when he gets down it's ugly.

Consistency that's what he's missing.

 

RG3 went .500 against ranked teams in 2011. He was 0-4 against ranked teams in 2010 including closing the season for 4 straight losses. He went 4-8 as a freshman including 7 losses out of 9 to close the season.

 

 

4. Look up Sanchez' completion percentage at USC. or Colt McCoy's at

Texas. Or Brady Quinn at Notre Dame. just cause he's a stat monger

doesn't make him a great prospect. Smarter guys than me have broken down

Geno Smith's game point by point. I invite you to read Prisco's geno

smith article it's based on actual film study.

 

 

Sanchez played 13 games in college.

 

Colt McCoy has a weak pro arm and mediocre size.

 

Brady Quinn sucked.

 

Smarter guys than you or I on this have praised Geno Smith as well. He's certainly a more experienced prospect than Sanchez and a more physically gifted propsec tthan McCoy or Quinn.

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The Geno Smith question been all over my brain since Jan 1 when every mock in the world had him at 1. Geno skipped the Senior Bowl, a good 40, avg combine throwing and a great pro day.

 

Bottom line for me is that Andy Reid passing on him is the kiss of death. If Andy doesn't think he's the next Donovan McNabb why should anyone else? Andy's the smartest of all the QB evaluators right now. His record speaks for itself drafting QB's.

 

When he made that Alex Smith trade it was a huge moment for Geno's stock. If he gets past 2 and 3 why would anyone else be interested... until the late first. Why should the Jets want sloppy ninths on Geno smith? Buffalo needs a QB too and that's the team that probably takes him. 

 

 

 

Never what I was working on, though as a QB with his tools and experience it would hardly be surprising for him to go high. He's a steal in the late first and certaily a better prospect than guys like Dalton, Ponder, and Freeman who went in the teens.

 

 

No, it's not good but doubtful it's unprecedented. I have no idea what special meaning the snow adds, nor do I believe your one game snow sample size has all that much significiance.
 

 

RG3 went .500 against ranked teams in 2011. He was 0-4 against ranked teams in 2010 including closing the season for 4 straight losses. He went 4-8 as a freshman including 7 losses out of 9 to close the season.

 


 

 

Sanchez played 13 games in college.

 

Colt McCoy has a weak pro arm and mediocre size.

 

Brady Quinn sucked.

 

Smarter guys than you or I on this have praised Geno Smith as well. He's certainly a more experienced prospect than Sanchez and a more physically gifted propsec tthan McCoy or Quinn.

 

no. it would not be a surprise to see him go high. yes he's a steal in the late first. He's value at that point. It's not clear that he's better than Ponder or Freeman.  Ponder and Dalton had great Senior Bowls.  the snow is a problem if you believe he's good fit for Buffalo.

 

By the way there is actually another snow game for Geno, i'd have to dig it out but he wasn't bad.  (oklahoma?)  I agree WVU is not a warm weather school. The significance is more the stage. Snow on xmas with everyone in the nation watching. Creeping doubt " if he looks like Sanchez against a big east defense what will the Patriots do to him?" 

 

for the record I like Tavon Austin way more than Geno Smith. There are plays where Tavon would have scored but Geno was late or inaccurate with the throw. Imagine the Jets trade Revis for a 13 and get Tavon at 9 Geno at 13. (I'd like the value at 13 slightly better btw cause it's "the teens" even tho only 4 slots.) Anyway Tavon would probably not be happy. Geno might get him killed with late passes in the NFL. 

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Smartest of all QB evaluators? Why, because he drafted McNabb 2nd in the country after Cleveland took Tim Couch? Because he brought in Michael Vick when he was dirt cheap and the only risk was from a PR perspective? Andy Reid also "evaluated" that Kevin Kolb was wise use of the 36th overall pick.  

 

Maybe he passed on Smith because he doesn't believe in his college QB-evaluating skills and is scared to screw it up.  Smith is unimpressive but you know what you're getting with him.  Use him for 2 years and hopefully draft someone better to develop behind him.

 

Now that I think about it, Andy Reid is the worst QB evaluator in NFL history.

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Smartest of all QB evaluators? Why, because he drafted McNabb 2nd in the country after Cleveland took Tim Couch? Because he brought in Michael Vick when he was dirt cheap and the only risk was from a PR perspective? Andy Reid also "evaluated" that Kevin Kolb was wise use of the 36th overall pick.  

 

Maybe he passed on Smith because he doesn't believe in his college QB-evaluating skills and is scared to screw it up.  Smith is unimpressive but you know what you're getting with him.  Use him for 2 years and hopefully draft someone better to develop behind him.

 

Now that I think about it, Andy Reid is the worst QB evaluator in NFL history.

 

McNabb was a multiple Pro bowl.  Vick he actually taught how to play QB a little. Kolb is currently starting in Buffalo and has been traded twice (admittedly his worst pick) But Foles is splitting 1st team reps with Vick.  And Jets fans start threads wanting to trade for Foles. I think that record is strong, at least relative to who is in the league right now. Bill Walsh isn't coaching anymore. 

and wait for this year's pick. Ya know Andy has some 3rd round target that will end up being valuable. 

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Imagine the Jets trade Revis for a 13 and get Tavon at 9 Geno at 13.

(I'd like the value at 13 slightly better btw cause it's "the teens"

even tho only 4 slots.) Anyway Tavon would probably not be happy. Geno

might get him killed with late passes in the NFL.

 

Tavon Austin is not going to be happy that the guy who helped him put up over 4000 yards from scrimmage and 35 TDs over the past 4 years? Lol dammit bit. Perhaps it is you and not Shane that is robot. Perhaps you're all robots.

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Same could have been said about Aaron Rodgers, no? 

 

My issue was with your claim that the majority of respected analysts had him in the 20's. You then named 3 guys who had him earlier than the 20s and 3 guys who have him in or later. Pauline made 4 guys who had him earlier than the 20s. Brandt, arguably the most respected of the draft guys as far as big boards go, has him at 4. 

 

Smith, to me, seems most penalized for not being Andrew Luck or as exciting athletically as RG3. He's a highly experienced starter with all the pre-req physical ability. Those QBs tend to go higher than expected, and there are still plenty who expect Smith gone sooner rather than later in the first round. 

The problem with that argument is that the Syracuse defense wouldn't have a shot in hell at annihilating Aaron Rodgers the way they did to Geno..three times...in a row. 

Being a Cuse fan, and having watched all of those ass-kickings, I am very uneasy about the idea of him being the Jets QB of the future. 

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honestly not great for the first 4 years or so Simms was injury riddled and just bad. maybe there's hope for sanchez if you compare him to Phil Simms. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Simms

 

Yep.  Injuries and poor offensive support plagued him early, (his best receiver was Stephen "Touchdown" Baker), but he had a great career.  Won the Super Bowl one year, led another Super Bowl team for most of the season before injury and his substitute won it.  Kept the Giants in Super Bowl contention for 6 or 7 years.

 

I think most would consider that a very good use of a #7 overall draft pick.  And he was not highly rated by most draft experts.

 

If the QB you believe in is there, take him as soon as you can.

Edited by kelticwizard
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McNabb was a multiple Pro bowl.  Vick he actually taught how to play QB a little. Kolb is currently starting in Buffalo and has been traded twice (admittedly his worst pick) But Foles is splitting 1st team reps with Vick.  And Jets fans start threads wanting to trade for Foles. I think that record is strong, at least relative to who is in the league right now. Bill Walsh isn't coaching anymore. 

and wait for this year's pick. Ya know Andy has some 3rd round target that will end up being valuable. 

 

I don't know anything about Andy's 3rd round target QB this year and neither do you so that is a total non-point you're making.  He got lucky with Foles who merely looked ok while playing against some of the NFL's worst pass defenses (all in losing efforts, mind you, except a 2-point win vs TB).  Two games against Washington's #30 pass defense, 1 game against TB's #32 pass defense (his only win), 2 games against Dallas who gave up the 19th-most passing yards despite the 5th-fewest attempts, the 2-8 Panthers (119 yards on 21 attempts), and one pretty awful game (180 yards on 33 attempts) against Cincy's #8 pass defense.  Foles wasn't exactly a stud.

 

Even if you want to credit Reid for being a good QB coach by selectively noting his QB successes and ignoring his failures, that doesn't make him a good evaluator of college QB prospects.  McNabb was about as obvious of a #2 overall pick as RGIII was.  It was "the" QB draft and Philly had no QB and no one was taking Smith or McNown or Culpepper over McNabb.

 

 

Andy Reid also burned a second rounder (plus) on the awful Alex Smith. How can anyone say he's a great evaluator?

 

He burned a pick at #34 overall this year, and a conditional 3rd next year that can turn into a 2nd if KC wins a certain # of games (meaning if it is a 3rd it'll still be a high one), because one of these QBs this year is going to be good and he doesn't trust his own ability to evaluate which one(s) will be good.  The on-paper trade equivalent, if KC wins 9-10 games or whatever they've agreed to, is a #1 and a #2 in this year's draft.  For Alex Smith. LOL.

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The problem with that argument is that the Syracuse defense wouldn't have a shot in hell at annihilating Aaron Rodgers the way they did to Geno..three times...in a row. 

Being a Cuse fan, and having watched all of those ass-kickings, I am very uneasy about the idea of him being the Jets QB of the future. 

 

 

don't believe me, talk to the Syracuse fan that saw Geno Smith roll over more than once. 

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I don't know anything about Andy's 3rd round target QB this year and neither do you so that is a total non-point you're making.  He got lucky with Foles who merely looked ok while playing against some of the NFL's worst pass defenses (all in losing efforts, mind you, except a 2-point win vs TB).  Two games against Washington's #30 pass defense, 1 game against TB's #32 pass defense (his only win), 2 games against Dallas who gave up the 19th-most passing yards despite the 5th-fewest attempts, the 2-8 Panthers (119 yards on 21 attempts), and one pretty awful game (180 yards on 33 attempts) against Cincy's #8 pass defense.  Foles wasn't exactly a stud.

 

Even if you want to credit Reid for being a good QB coach by selectively noting his QB successes and ignoring his failures, that doesn't make him a good evaluator of college QB prospects.  McNabb was about as obvious of a #2 overall pick as RGIII was.  It was "the" QB draft and Philly had no QB and no one was taking Smith or McNown or Culpepper over McNabb.

 

besides nitpicking Foles the bottom line is he's a starter, Kolb is a starter and McNabb was a star. That's a damn good record, again compared to the rest of the league. 

 

the Mcnabb pick being obvious is revisonist. Ricky Williams was the no-brainer pick. Andy picked Donovan and the crowd boo'ed. 

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besides nitpicking Foles the bottom line is he's a starter, Kolb is a starter and McNabb was a star. That's a damn good record, again compared to the rest of the league. 

 

the Mcnabb pick being obvious is revisonist. Ricky Williams was the no-brainer pick. Andy picked Donovan and the crowd boo'ed. 

 

Sanchez is also a starter.  A bad one.  Kolb is also a bad starter.  Foles is not yet the starter.

 

Ricky Williams was only a no-brainer pick to some fans, not to a team that had no QB when McNabb is sitting right there.  Two more teams passed on Ricky before Ditka traded his whole draft and his reputation as a non-idiot for him.

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if you don't actually respect any sources then yeah i guess 1 is a moot point. 

 

as for Geno the prospect he stunk for 5 games this season and the Pinstripe bowl. He lost 32 fumbles and had 2 safeties on national TV in the bowl game. How does a cold weather team like buffalo or new york look at his performance in Yankee stadium and feel like he's a top 10 pick? 

 

 

DAMN!!!!  32 fumbles in one bowl game?  YIKES

 

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Tavon Austin is not going to be happy that the guy who helped him put up over 4000 yards from scrimmage and 35 TDs over the past 4 years? Lol dammit bit. Perhaps it is you and not Shane that is robot. Perhaps you're all robots.

I promise that I am not a robot.

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besides nitpicking Foles the bottom line is he's a starter, Kolb is a starter and McNabb was a star. That's a damn good record, again compared to the rest of the league. 

 

the Mcnabb pick being obvious is revisonist. Ricky Williams was the no-brainer pick. Andy picked Donovan and the crowd boo'ed. 

 

  According to who?  Kolb couldn't beat out John Skeleton.     Did you watch any of the Arizona games last season?   And they have Fitzgerald.

If you think Sanchez was bad and think Tebow should be out of the NFL,    any QB for Arizona last year, including Kolb,  look like they shouldn't even be fans of an NFL team.  That's how bad the Cardinals QB situation was last year.

 

Kolb sucked.  Maybe he got injured, but even when he played for the Cardinals, he sucked.   And he lost a starting job to Skeleton. A guy who made Tebow look like a HOF QB.  

 

 And foles?    Last time I checked,  Vick seems like the starting QB again.   And Vick... Yeah he had 1 or 2 good games for the Eagles and sucked ever since.

Thats Reid's talent evaluation for QBs.    A guy who couldn't even beat Skeleton.  Another guy who had a couple of good games after his prison comeback and sucked ever since.   And then a backup who wasn't all that great when he played and looks like he'll be a backup once again.   

 

How is that a good evaluator of QB talent?

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