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Pat Kirwan: NY Jets Training Camp Preview


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2013 NFL training camp preview: New York Jets

 

July 5, 2013 5:20 PM ET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Jets were very often the butt of jokes in 2012. Can they become relevant again?  The Jets were very often the butt of jokes in 2012. Can they become relevant again?  

 

The bubble has appeared to burst in New York and Rex Ryan isn't talking about winning it all in 2013. According to Nick Mangold, Rex is still Rex behind closed doors with his team and the players appreciate his confidence in them. Things are changing for the Jets with GM Mike Tannenbaum and his personnel people out and a new front office led by John Idzik is in place. Ryan is probably on thin ice, but he will not coach scared for his job. No one is looking at the Jets as contenders but be careful and don't count them out. A few players have told me Mark Sanchez will not go away quietly and will fight to keep his job. As Mangold said, "He led us to the AFC Championship Game twice and everyone seems to forget it."

 

 

Key changes

 

 

The Jets were on their way to salary cap jail when John Idzik took over as GM, but after some though financial decisions they sit with close to $10 million in salary cap space. The biggest on-the-field change that potentially could happen is at quarterback with Sanchez battling rookie draft pick Geno Smith. There has been a steady flow of coaches out of the Jets organization over the past few years, and with Rex Ryan's job on the line, he enters 2013 with new coordinators on offense, defense and special teams. It's going to be tough for Ryan to tie this whole team together in time for the season.

 

2013 NFL TRAINING CAMPTeam previews, dates, locations

 

Roster additions: The 2013 draft should put at least two starters in the lineup, CB Dee Milliner and DE Sheldon Richardson. Milliner replaces lock-down corner Darrelle Revis, who was traded to the Bucs. Tampa Bay is the opening game for the Jets, which should be very interesting. Veteran free-agent guards Willie Colon and Stephen Peterman bring much needed veteran help to the offensive line. If Colon can stay injury free the Jets will have a solid rush attack with newcomer Chris Ivory following Colon in the G-power game. Keep an eye on the recent addition at tight end, Kellen Winslow. He struggles to stay healthy but he is the best receiving tight end on the roster. On defense, Dawan Landry replaces LaRon Landry at safety and Josh Bush replaces Yeremiah Bell. They can't be considered upgrades at this point.

 

 

Roster departures: Revis is the biggest departure, but the Jets only had him for two games last year and still managed to be the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL. Tim Tebow is now a Patriot camp candidate, but he never did much for the Jets in 2012. If you go back and look at the starting lineup from December 2012 you will realize that 10 starters are no longer on the roster: Matt Slauson, Brandon Moore, Dustin Keller, Shon Greene, Sione Pouha, Mike DeVito, Bart Scott, Bryan Thomas, Bell and Landry. Basically, 50 percent of the starters are gone.

 

 

Staff changes: Three new coordinators with 11 new starters' sounds almost like an expansion franchise. Marty Mornhinweg takes over the offense and has a reputation for running the ball. Dennis Thurman takes over the defense and will be an extension of Rex Ryan's pressure 3-4 package. Ben Kotwica was promoted after the retirement of Mike Westoff.

 

 

Position battles

 

 

Quarterback is going to be a heavily contested battle and the media will be right in the middle of it. Sanchez is under the microscope, but will Geno Smith be ready to lead this team? At fullback, rookie Tommy Bohanon is a powerful lead blocker and he will compete with Lex Hilliard. On defense, Milliner will attempt to unseat Kyle Wilson for the corner job opposite Antonio Cromartie. The loser will be the nickel corner. The biggest experiment is moving Quinton Coples, a 4-3 defensive end drafted in the first round last year, to OLB. Calvin Pace was re-signed in case the project is a failure.

 

 

Bubble watch

 

 

A new GM and an old coach trying to keep his job. The GM wants to continue to get younger players on the field and the coach wants as much veteran experience as he can get. With the roster overhaul that has already taken place there isn't much left to do, but veterans like Winslow, Jaiquawn Jarrett, Antonio Garay, Greg McElroy, and Mike Goodson (legal issues) are always bubble players.

 

 

Unheard-of-guy to watch

 

 

Third-round offensive guard Brian Winters can play guard or tackle and he will find a way to get on the field as a rookie. Josh Bush and Antonio Allen were drafted last year in the sixth and seventh rounds and both could find their way on to the field by the start of the season. Garay sits behind Kenrick Ellis on the depth chart at nose tackle, though Ellis has four career starts, 16 tackles and no sacks. In the last three years Garay has 28 starts, 81 tackles and nine sacks.

 

 

Something to prove

 

 

Sanchez has won 4 of 6 playoff games, all on the road, with nine touchdown passes, three interceptions, four sacks and he's only 27 years old. But he is under constant attack. No one seems to care that he had a poor group of weapons and a shaky offensive line last year. Austin Howard is the starting right tackle and the film study says he can play, but he will have to hold off a few draft picks to keep his job. With Bart Scott no longer a member of the Jets, Demario Davis gets the call. Davis has three NFL starts where he did record 15 tackles.

 

 

Biggest concerns

 

 

Where is the pass rush? In 2012 the Jets 3-4 defense only generated 30 sacks and 12 1/2 of those were by players no longer on the team. The top 3-4 defenses get close to 20 sacks from their two outside linebackers and the pressure is on Coples and Antwan Barnes to generate bigger numbers than they have in the past or the Jets will find themselves blitzing too often in order to manufacture pass rush.

 

 

Last year the Jets scored 60 points in their last five games (12 per game) which tells you why they were the 30th ranked offense in the NFL. Don't be surprised if Sanchez is the starting QB to open the season and as soon as he throws his first interception the cries for Smith will be so loud that the rookie winds up on the field. There's a five-week stretch in the middle of the season when the Jets play Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New England, Cincinnati and New Orleans. I might wait until that part of the schedule is over before Geno Smith

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Mangold should just keep his dumb mouth shut.  Sanchez did NOT lead the Jets to the AFC Championship twice, but rather was carried by the team twice.  Yes, Sanchez stepped up his level of play in the playoffs, but it was still nothing to get excited about. 

 

I think Pat Kirwan is wrong if he seriously thinks that Garay is on the bubble.  He was brought in for a reason.  Both Ellis and Big Snacks would have to play out of their minds in TC and preseason, and even then, it might not be enough for Garay not to make the roster, particularly with Rex's affinity for veterans.  I find it interesting that Kirwan doesn't even mention the WR issue.  I wonder how some of these hacks keep their cushy jobs.

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I think Pat Kirwan is wrong if he seriously thinks that Garay is on the bubble. He was brought in for a reason. Both Ellis and Big Snacks would have to play out of their minds in TC and preseason, and even then, it might not be enough for Garay not to make the roster, particularly with Rex's affinity for veterans.

I agree. A healthy Garay could end up proving to be a steal. Unfortunately he has knee issues.

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Mangold should just keep his dumb mouth shut.  Sanchez did NOT lead the Jets to the AFC Championship twice, but rather was carried by the team twice.  Yes, Sanchez stepped up his level of play in the playoffs, but it was still nothing to get excited about. 

 

I think Pat Kirwan is wrong if he seriously thinks that Garay is on the bubble.  He was brought in for a reason.  Both Ellis and Big Snacks would have to play out of their minds in TC and preseason, and even then, it might not be enough for Garay not to make the roster, particularly with Rex's affinity for veterans.  I find it interesting that Kirwan doesn't even mention the WR issue.  I wonder how some of these hacks keep their cushy jobs.

Mangold, who is perhaps the best player on the team, a perennial Pro Bowler, and a team leader,  " should just keep his dumb mouth shut".  Because he disagrees with fans?

 

Oh, OK

Edited by flgreen
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Mangold, who is perhaps the best player on the team, a perennial Pro Bowler, and a team leader,  " should just keep his dumb mouth shut"  because he disagrees with fans.

 

Oh, OK

 

He'll probably reply with "Mangold isn't that good anyway".  Typical.

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Mangold, who is perhaps the best player on the team, a perennial Pro Bowler, and a team leader,  " should just keep his dumb mouth shut".  Because he disagrees with fans?

 

Oh, OK

 

WTF?  Seriously some of you guys need to take a remedial reading class.  What I said and what Mangold said had nothing, zilch, nada to do with the fans.  WTF did that come from?  What Mangold said is factually wrong.  Period.  It's one thing to stand up for and support a teammate, but when one makes nonsensical comments in an effort to do that, all one does is make one's self like like a dumbass.

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Took a different approach.  He's a dumbass

 

You're the one who is making a big deal out of nothing because you can't comprehend beyond a 4th grade reading level and I'm the dumbass.  Right.  LOL

Edited by JoeKlecko
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You're the one who is making a big deal out of nothing because you can't comprehend beyond a 4th grade reading level and I'm the dumbass.  Right.  LOL

Speaking of reading comprehension levels, I wasn't referring to you being a dumbass, I was referring to your referring to Mangold as a dumbass.  " all one does is make one's self like like a dumbass."

 

Carry on

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Speaking of reading comprehension levels, I wasn't referring to you being a dumbass, I was referring to your referring to Mangold as a dumbass.  " all one does is make one's self like like a dumbass."

 

Carry on

So you like Sanchez and think he carried the Jets to, and in, the playoffs - fine, you and Mangold are entitled to your opinions, but there's some truth to support otherwise. There's no reason to get offensive - Sanchez wouldn't.

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So you like Sanchez and think he carried the Jets to, and in, the playoffs - fine, you and Mangold are entitled to your opinions, but there's some truth to support otherwise. There's no reason to get offensive - Sanchez wouldn't.

LOL

 

I didn't like Sanchez when everyone was running victory laps when the Jets drafted him.  Just didn't hijack every thread hating him.  Not crazy about Geno either

 

Not a problem if Mangold defends his starting QB

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well well well! look at the pseudo-intellectual crap going on here :D

 

I'm looking forward to this big experiment with Coples. Will that actually be sorted out before the season starts? As Kirwan pointed out, they re-signed Pace in case the whole thing goes belly up.

 

Kenrick Ellis: he's only had 4 starts. What's the deal here?

 

I also agree with the guy when he says to wait for the worst stretch of the season to be over to put in Smith. Is there any reason he needs to be crushed by the Patriots, Falcons, Steelers, Bengals and the Saints? Let Sanchez get crushed, and then put Smith in.

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well well well! look at the pseudo-intellectual crap going on here :biggrin:

 

I'm looking forward to this big experiment with Coples. Will that actually be sorted out before the season starts? As Kirwan pointed out, they re-signed Pace in case the whole thing goes belly up.

 

Kenrick Ellis: he's only had 4 starts. What's the deal here?

 

I also agree with the guy when he says to wait for the worst stretch of the season to be over to put in Smith. Is there any reason he needs to be crushed by the Patriots, Falcons, Steelers, Bengals and the Saints? Let Sanchez get crushed, and then put Smith in.

 

My big question mark is Davis @ ILB.  Why did he play so sparingly last year?  We all saw Scott was slow/hurt/old/done after the season, yet Davis played very little.  I know Scott is Rex's boy but boyitellya, I would like to see who is carrying my eggs next to Harris a bit more this season than what I saw last season.  color me unimpressed with Davis, especially with who he was backing up.

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Mangold should just keep his dumb mouth shut.  Sanchez did NOT lead the Jets to the AFC Championship twice, but rather was carried by the team twice.  Yes, Sanchez stepped up his level of play in the playoffs, but it was still nothing to get excited about. 

 

I think Pat Kirwan is wrong if he seriously thinks that Garay is on the bubble.  He was brought in for a reason.  Both Ellis and Big Snacks would have to play out of their minds in TC and preseason, and even then, it might not be enough for Garay not to make the roster, particularly with Rex's affinity for veterans.  I find it interesting that Kirwan doesn't even mention the WR issue.  I wonder how some of these hacks keep their cushy jobs.

 

 

I agree. A healthy Garay could end up proving to be a steal. Unfortunately he has knee issues.

 

I don't see getting on the guy for listing Garay in with vets that are "always on the bubble"  He's an older guy with injury problems that is on a short term low $$ contract.  If he's dinged there isn't much reason to keep him over a younger option.  Kirwin didn't act like he had no chance and even listed him in his players to watch section.  Older guys that you aren't bound to by money are always on the bubble.  I tend to think with the glut of offensive linemen that one of them will be more likely to go, but whatever...

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I don't see getting on the guy for listing Garay in with vets that are "always on the bubble"  He's an older guy with injury problems that is on a short term low $$ contract.  If he's dinged there isn't much reason to keep him over a younger option.  Kirwin didn't act like he had no chance and even listed him in his players to watch section.  Older guys that you aren't bound to by money are always on the bubble.  I tend to think with the glut of offensive linemen that one of them will be more likely to go, but whatever...

With DeVito and Pouha gone, and Ellis couldn't crack the starting lineup for 2 years in a row, I think it's overblown to say Garay is on the bubble. If anything, Ellis is on the bubble.

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With DeVito and Pouha gone, and Ellis couldn't crack the starting lineup for 2 years in a row, I think it's overblown to say Garay is on the bubble. If anything, Ellis is on the bubble.

 

 

Don't be ridiculous.  Dude, Garay gets hurt all the time and he is 33 years old. If he is healthy I am sure he will be on the team and contribute, but 33 year old guys fall off constantly.  Ellis played over 20 % of the snaps last year.  That doesn't seem like much until you notice that Pouha only played 28%.  Ellis is 25 years old and signed cheap through 2014.  Unless he gets arrested again, there is almost ZERO chance that he gets cut.  IR?  Maybe.  Cut? Nah. 

 

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Don't be ridiculous.  Dude, Garay gets hurt all the time and he is 33 years old. If he is healthy I am sure he will be on the team and contribute, but 33 year old guys fall off constantly.  Ellis played over 20 % of the snaps last year.  That doesn't seem like much until you notice that Pouha only played 28%.  Ellis is 25 years old and signed cheap through 2014.  Unless he gets arrested again, there is almost ZERO chance that he gets cut.  IR?  Maybe.  Cut? Nah. 

 

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So by your own admission, Ellis played significantly less (70 snaps, or 5%), than two players who were cut. Why didn't they transition Ellis into the starting role before cutting them? And yet we should view him as the future? I think it was more about clearing some money off the books, more than a vote of confidence. He has knee problems too, ya know. I spread my ass cheeks at these stats.

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So by your own admission, Ellis played significantly less (70 snaps, or 5%), than two players who were cut. Why didn't they transition Ellis into the starting role before cutting them? And yet we should view him as the future? I think it was more about clearing some money off the books, more than a vote of confidence. He has knee problems too, ya know. I spread my ass cheeks at these stats.

 

They did.  As you said, he hurt his knee.  You can argue over who is more likely to start - Kirwan actually mentions Garay over Ellis as something to watch, but you can't argue over who is more likely to get cut.  I hear guys saying that the 2 year difference in age between Freeney and Abraham is significant, there is an 8 year difference between these two.  Ellis makes less money and is signed for 2 years.  Garay got a $65K signing bonus and no significant guarantee.  That is why he was listed with the bubble guys (age and contract).  

 

I don't have a problem with touting Garay as a player, in particular over Ellis.  I think that people on this board tend to give Ellis a bit too much credit, but Kirwan said as much and you guys are complaining about comments that were 100% true.

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Before we start getting too crazy about the evaluations of Ellis after 2 years of his NFL career, just take a moment to look back at the guy he's being compared to.  Pouha was already 26 when he was drafted and was pretty much a complete unknown backup up until his 5th season when he stepped in for the injured Jenkins in 2009.  Keep in mind everyone was left scratching their heads at Tanny's extension of Pouha prior to that and it arguably ended up being one of his best moves during his time as GM.

 

Ellis was drafted on the planet theory principal and the truth is, when those kind of guys aren't drafted near the top of the draft, that generally means it's going to take some time for them to reach their potential.  That's not to say Ellis is destined for greatness or anything close, and I can certainly understand the injuries as a potential concern, but I think it's too soon for there to be any definitive judgments to be made about him in either direction after just two limited seasons.  The Jets made sure to hedge their bets by having some other options at the position, but they're going to give him every chance to prove his worth for at least these next two years.  There are way too few guys out there who can bring that physical presence to the position for teams to be in any particular rush to move on from them.

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Before we start getting too crazy about the evaluations of Ellis after 2 years of his NFL career, just take a moment to look back at the guy he's being compared to.  Pouha was already 26 when he was drafted and was pretty much a complete unknown backup up until his 5th season when he stepped in for the injured Jenkins in 2009.  Keep in mind everyone was left scratching their heads at Tanny's extension of Pouha prior to that and it arguably ended up being one of his best moves during his time as GM.

 

Ellis was drafted on the planet theory principal and the truth is, when those kind of guys aren't drafted near the top of the draft, that generally means it's going to take some time for them to reach their potential.  That's not to say Ellis is destined for greatness or anything close, and I can certainly understand the injuries as a potential concern, but I think it's too soon for there to be any definitive judgments to be made about him in either direction after just two limited seasons.  The Jets made sure to hedge their bets by having some other options at the position, but they're going to give him every chance to prove his worth for at least these next two years.  There are way too few guys out there who can bring that physical presence to the position for teams to be in any particular rush to move on from them.

 

 

You can use Garay for that comparison too.  The guy has seven NFL seasons.  The first four he averaged 4 games and had zero starts.  Then he had two farily big years.  Last year he fell off, had some injury issues and was behind Abrayou Franklin and Cam Thomas on the depth chart.  Chargers let he and Franklin both walk.  Garay has played some DE for them as well.  He might fit the Devito role more than the Pouha, but these guys often don't do much before having some big years. 

 

IMO, Ellis looked lost as a rookie. Not a surprise when you consider what was asked of him.  He looked much better to me last year.  Stout against the run and seemed to stand up Olinemen.  He didn't hold up though. 

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They did.  As you said, he hurt his knee.  You can argue over who is more likely to start - Kirwan actually mentions Garay over Ellis as something to watch, but you can't argue over who is more likely to get cut.  I hear guys saying that the 2 year difference in age between Freeney and Abraham is significant, there is an 8 year difference between these two.  Ellis makes less money and is signed for 2 years.  Garay got a $65K signing bonus and no significant guarantee.  That is why he was listed with the bubble guys (age and contract).  

 

I don't have a problem with touting Garay as a player, in particular over Ellis.  I think that people on this board tend to give Ellis a bit too much credit, but Kirwan said as much and you guys are complaining about comments that were 100% true.

This article, and this rationale, could not wipe Mangold's bunghole.

 

Now that we're delving into finance,  Ellis' salary implications are 707,500 in 2013 and 797,500 (h/t NYJCap), and Garay makes 5,000,000 going into this year. Pouha was 6,166,666. So a Garay + an Ellis = A Pouha. Therefore, logically speaking you can keep both, all else being equal, and neither should be on the bubble.

 

Also, while Ellis couldn't beat out Pouha for the job, the Jets picked up that monster Garay contract anyway. Garay happened to have been a pro-bowl alternate, which Pouha was not. So strictly from value it made sense to cut Pouha. Pouha in this sense, was not Tannenbaum's finest hour.

 

If Ellis couldn't beat a regular NFL veteran, and if Garay's health holds up, then how does he beat out a pro-bowl alternate?

 

I maintain that Garay is NOT on the bubble. Expect to see the Jets continue to draft DL in the upcoming future.

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This article, and this rationale, could not wipe Mangold's bunghole.

 

Now that we're delving into finance,  Ellis' salary implications are 707,500 in 2013 and 797,500 (h/t NYJCap), and Garay makes 5,000,000 going into this year. Pouha was 6,166,666. So a Garay + an Ellis = A Pouha. Therefore, logically speaking you can keep both, all else being equal, and neither should be on the bubble.

 

Also, while Ellis couldn't beat out Pouha for the job, the Jets picked up that monster Garay contract anyway. Garay happened to have been a pro-bowl alternate, which Pouha was not. So strictly from value it made sense to cut Pouha. Pouha in this sense, was not Tannenbaum's finest hour.

 

If Ellis couldn't beat a regular NFL veteran, and if Garay's health holds up, then how does he beat out a pro-bowl alternate?

 

I maintain that Garay is NOT on the bubble. Expect to see the Jets continue to draft DL in the upcoming future.

 

Maintain away, but your numbers are batsh*t crazy.  Garay is signed for one year at under a million with a $65K signing bonus.  If they cut him he costs nothing.  I think the numbers you have are from his Chargers deal which the Jets certainly did NOT pick up his monster contract.  If they did I would have immediately called for Idzik's head on a skewer. 

 

Garay could not beat out Abrayou Franklin or Cam Thomas and was actually a healthy scratch a few games.  Ellis was working ahead of Pouha for a bit though that was probably due to Pouha's back.  The guy hurt his knee and missed a bunch of games.  There, you made me check. He missed weeks 5-10 with a knee injury, came back against the Rams and aggravated it but played the rest of the season.  

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Maintain away, but your numbers are batsh*t crazy.  Garay is signed for one year at under a million with a $65K signing bonus.  If they cut him he costs nothing.  I think the numbers you have are from his Chargers deal which the Jets certainly did NOT pick up his monster contract.  If they did I would have immediately called for Idzik's head on a skewer. 

 

Garay could not beat out Abrayou Franklin or Cam Thomas and was actually a healthy scratch a few games.  Ellis was working ahead of Pouha for a bit though that was probably due to Pouha's back.  The guy hurt his knee and missed a bunch of games.  There, you made me check. He missed weeks 5-10 with a knee injury, came back against the Rams and aggravated it but played the rest of the season.  

I didn't check the contract except for the Chargers page, and was surprised myself, so thanks for clarifying. So if Garay is making about the same has Ellis, and they both have knee issues, he's just on the bubble for age? And yes, Ellis got that PT over Pouha due to Pouha's back....which now that you mention it, distorts the playing time percentage you mentioned earlier. Ellis is not a stronger candidate to stay on the team, no matter how you want to argue it, statistically or otherwise. The proof is in the pudding. Ellis isn't getting dominant PT, so they got someone else to challenge him.

Edited by BleedGreen314
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I didn't check the contract except for the Chargers page, and was surprised myself, so thanks for clarifying. So if Garay is making about the same has Ellis, and they both have knee issues, he's just on the bubble for age? And yes, Ellis got that PT over Pouha due to Pouha's back....which now that you mention it, distorts the playing time percentage you mentioned earlier. Ellis is not a stronger candidate to stay on the team, no matter how you want to argue it, statistically or otherwise. The proof is in the pudding. Ellis isn't getting dominant PT, so they got someone else to challenge him.

Keep in mind with the Jets, and Rex, none of the inside guys are going to get dominate playing time.  Rex changes fronts every play, and situation.  Who gets playing time is often controlled by who they are playing. 

 

The DE's might get a lot of time because they can play inside in the 4-3 and outside in the 3-4.  Couples can play DT/DE in the 4-3 and OLB/DE in the 3-4.

 

The NT's not so much

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Keep in mind with the Jets, and Rex, none of the inside guys are going to get dominate playing time.  Rex changes fronts every play, and situation.  Who gets playing time is often controlled by who they are playing. 

 

The DE's might get a lot of time because they can play inside in the 4-3 and outside in the 3-4.  Couples can play DT/DE in the 4-3 and OLB/DE in the 3-4.

 

The NT's not so much

While you definitely make a fair and accurate point on interior DL's pt, put that statement in perspective with Ellis's inflated PT since Pouha was out with back issues last year. I think that strengthen's my argument.

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While you definitely make a fair and accurate point on interior DL's pt, put that statement in perspective with Ellis's inflated PT since Pouha was out with back issues last year. I think that strengthen's my argument.

 

 

Dude, Ellis was out from week 5 with a knee injury.  He missed four full games, came back and had to leave the Rams game because he aggravated the knee.  I don't think there is a place on the planet where a 33 year old on a one year deal is safer than a 25 year old on 2 year, but hey that's just me and Pat Kirwan. 

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Lets go worst case scenario here.  Lets presume that both players come into camp, and their knees just aren't totally healed yet.  Neither will be ready for opening day.  The Jets have to bring in a hold the fort  guy, until one of the others is healthy. 

 

To make room for him they have to release on of the NT's.   I'd bet anything it would be Garay who goes on unemployment

 

A player who is being forgotten here is Snacks.  He could easily  take someone's job

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Lets go worst case scenario here.  Lets presume that both players come into camp, and their knees just aren't totally healed yet.  Neither will be ready for opening day.  The Jets have to bring in a hold the fort  guy, until one of the others is healthy. 

 

To make room for him they have to release on of the NT's.   I'd bet anything it would be Garay who goes on unemployment

 

A player who is being forgotten here is Snacks.  He could easily  take someone's job

 

 

I'd say that in Garay's favor is that he is more able to kick out to DE.  Against him is the fact that Richardson will also fit that mold.  Ellis and Harrison are the 3-4 NTs. 

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Before we start getting too crazy about the evaluations of Ellis after 2 years of his NFL career, just take a moment to look back at the guy he's being compared to.  Pouha was already 26 when he was drafted and was pretty much a complete unknown backup up until his 5th season when he stepped in for the injured Jenkins in 2009.  Keep in mind everyone was left scratching their heads at Tanny's extension of Pouha prior to that and it arguably ended up being one of his best moves during his time as GM.

 

Ellis was drafted on the planet theory principal and the truth is, when those kind of guys aren't drafted near the top of the draft, that generally means it's going to take some time for them to reach their potential.  That's not to say Ellis is destined for greatness or anything close, and I can certainly understand the injuries as a potential concern, but I think it's too soon for there to be any definitive judgments to be made about him in either direction after just two limited seasons.  The Jets made sure to hedge their bets by having some other options at the position, but they're going to give him every chance to prove his worth for at least these next two years.  There are way too few guys out there who can bring that physical presence to the position for teams to be in any particular rush to move on from them.

 

I agree totally.  He came from a small school where the coaching he received was probably not that good.  He got by on sheer physical talent and size alone in college.  That won't cut it in the NFL, so he's had to try to develop technique, learn to stay low and use leverage.  Based on what I've read, his development was severely hindered his rookie season by his legal troubles and having to spend some time in jail.  Last year was probably like a 1a rookie year where he could finally totally focus on football.  Pouha had been the man, so there probably was never any thought about Ellis supplanting Pouha last year.  If Dunbar and Rex are working with Ellis the way I imagine that they are, with his talent, he should develop sooner rather than later, and I expect that we'll start seeing real progress by Ellis this year unless he's just too dumb or lazy to develop solid technique/fundamentals.

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This article, and this rationale, could not wipe Mangold's bunghole.

 

Now that we're delving into finance,  Ellis' salary implications are 707,500 in 2013 and 797,500 (h/t NYJCap), and Garay makes 5,000,000 going into this year. Pouha was 6,166,666. So a Garay + an Ellis = A Pouha. Therefore, logically speaking you can keep both, all else being equal, and neither should be on the bubble.

 

Also, while Ellis couldn't beat out Pouha for the job, the Jets picked up that monster Garay contract anyway. Garay happened to have been a pro-bowl alternate, which Pouha was not. So strictly from value it made sense to cut Pouha. Pouha in this sense, was not Tannenbaum's finest hour.

 

If Ellis couldn't beat a regular NFL veteran, and if Garay's health holds up, then how does he beat out a pro-bowl alternate?

 

I maintain that Garay is NOT on the bubble. Expect to see the Jets continue to draft DL in the upcoming future.

 

I agree, especially with your last sentence. The only disagreement I have is with regard to Ellis not being able to beat out Pouha.  Ellis had the legal troubles hanging over his head his rookie season which had to be distracting and had to serve jail time when he should have been able to focus on his fundamentals and learning the D, not to mention losing conditioning, so that had to have curtailed his development.  When coupled with the fact that Ellis probably received minimal coaching in college and got by on sheer talent and size alone, and Pouha had been a rock at NT, especially in 2009-2011, I don't think it is all that surprising that it has taken Ellis 2-3 years to develop, and I'm not certain that Ellis really ever had a chance to beat out Pouha for the starting spot. 

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