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Woody Johnson doesn't take bait, won't commit to Rex beyond this year.


T0mShane

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That's pretty much how I feel.

The Falcons were a +1 for Rex, but the loss to the Patriots and Tennessee were -2. The Bills are neutral. The Tampa game was pure luck, they should have beaten us, at best I give it a neutral, but could be convinced to make it a -1.

 

Putting Rex at -2 on the season, so far.

 

The Falcons game almost got blown too... I think people are getting ahead of themselves tbh. That Falcons team is not last year's team. They are hurt ALL OVER the defense, the O-line and at all the skill positions. The healthiest guys they have are Matty Ice and Gonzo, and those 2 almost beat TEH VAUNTUD DEFENZ us on their own.

 

So if he was 5-0, he would have broken even? LOL

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I think if he goes 7-9 or better with the roster he has and Geno's development hasn't been curbed, he stays.

 

I think it will take more than that. I hope he does stay, I think he has been the best coach outside of Parcells that I have seen while rooting for this team, but my very large gut tells me Idzik wants his own guy.  I hope I am wrong though. I would love to see a coach here for many years. You cannot win without consistency of the coaching staff. 

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So you're saying that great defense is irrelevant because of the rules? Then Rex has no place in the league. I think Idzik knows what he's going to do with Rex at the end of the season, and he's going to closely scrutinize his performance on a week to week basis. It's fantastic that we're 3-2--we haven't had a week like this one in three years--but I don't think any sane person thinks that Rex has saved his job at this point. He just hasn't lost it yet, which is a great credit to him and Mornhinweg and Geno Christ Superstar.

If Idzik knows what he's doing with Rex at the end of the year, why would he even bother scrutinizing him? Lol.

In contrast to the article's headline, the owner's comments towards Rex were much warmer than his comments towards Idzik. Let's face it, Woody loves himself some Rex - that love is the reason he's still here this season. And just as John Idzik was quick to interject himself into the QB selection process, you can bet that Woody will be interjecting himself into the head coaching selection process. I suspect that Idzik will have to put together a much stronger case for firing Rex than just, I want to hire my own guy!

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Rex should stay, and I assume he will stay. Idzik is smart, surely he understands how much of a gamble it would be to get rid of Rex and bring in his own guy if the Jets do better than they did last year. Say the jets finish 8-8 and he fires Rex; now imagine if Idzik brings in his guy, and his guy actually leads the team to a worse record and we finish with a 7-9 record or worse in 2014, then Idzik has egg all over his face and suddenly HIS seat starts to get warm.

 

Let's remember, Idzik is a first time GM, he still has stuff to prove, he is likely to make the cautious move that is most likely to legitimize his hiring as GM. If Rex finishes with a better record than he had last season, the cautiously smart move is to sign Rex to a 2 year extension giving him 3 years left total (2014-2016). This way, Idzik can let Geno develop with consistency, and not have him learn a new system that a new coach wants him to learn in his sophmore season. And if this doesn't work out, Idzik, having only extended him 2 years may consider firing him with one year left so he isn't a lame duck. It's a can't lose situation for Idzik career wise; if he extends Rex and he succeeds, then Idizik looks good, if Rex fails, then Idzik has the excuse of the improvement showcased in 2013 as being a sensible reason for the extension.

 

But if the Jets do improve their record this year, and Idzik fires Rex anyway, then there is the potential for him to look really really bad in 2014. If the new coach performs worse than Rex, or if Rex goes somewhere else and performs better than his successor here in New York, these are just two ways Idzik can come out looking very foolish and bad at his job.

Two things will all but guarantee a Rex extension: Winning 7 or more games, and Geno having a good/promising season.

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Rex should stay, and I assume he will stay. Idzik is smart, surely he understands how much of a gamble it would be to get rid of Rex and bring in his own guy if the Jets do better than they did last year. Say the jets finish 8-8 and he fires Rex; now imagine if Idzik brings in his guy, and his guy actually leads the team to a worse record and we finish with a 7-9 record or worse in 2014, then Idzik has egg all over his face and suddenly HIS seat starts to get warm.

 

Let's remember, Idzik is a first time GM, he still has stuff to prove, he is likely to make the cautious move that is most likely to legitimize his hiring as GM. If Rex finishes with a better record than he had last season, the cautiously smart move is to sign Rex to a 2 year extension giving him 3 years left total (2014-2016). This way, Idzik can let Geno develop with consistency, and not have him learn a new system that a new coach wants him to learn in his sophmore season. And if this doesn't work out, Idzik, having only extended him 2 years may consider firing him with one year left so he isn't a lame duck. It's a can't lose situation for Idzik career wise; if he extends Rex and he succeeds, then Idizik looks good, if Rex fails, then Idzik has the excuse of the improvement showcased in 2013 as being a sensible reason for the extension.

 

But if the Jets do improve their record this year, and Idzik fires Rex anyway, then there is the potential for him to look really really bad in 2014. If the new coach performs worse than Rex, or if Rex goes somewhere else and performs better than his successor here in New York, these are just two ways Idzik can come out looking very foolish and bad at his job.

Two things will all but guarantee a Rex extension: Winning 7 or more games, and Geno having a good/promising season.

Very good post.

Lost in all the conversation about Idzik wanting to hire his own guy is the very real probability that Idzik would really just like to have some job security in an insecure business. Most GM's only get a chance to hire one or two head coaches. If Rex gets more out of this team than anyone expected this year, extending him for a couple years potentially extends Idzik's career here, too.

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I don't know why you would want to mess with this coaching staff. This staff reminds me a lot of the Eagles with Andy Reid when Jim Johnson was the DC. I personally think we will get better throughout they year. But even so, 7-9 - but the defense keeps playing like it has and I would be happy to see Rex back. This roster has a lot of holes. There are problems on defense as well as offense, its just Rex masks it very well. This defense could use to replace or have better play from Pace, the safeties, Wilson, and could use an edge rusher. If Geno doesn't work out (and its still possible he doesnt) Idzik has more explaining to do than Rex. Milliner and most, if not all of his acquisitions this offseason have been crap. That would mean the only good guy he drafted was when he traded the best CB in the NFL. Still waiting for who he signed or traded for that was so great. Last week someone here told me Winslow was a great signing. lol Cumberland is taking most of the snaps. It was only a matter of time before he was phased out. The guy cant even walk.

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Very good post.

Lost in all the conversation about Idzik wanting to hire his own guy is the very real probability that Idzik would really just like to have some job security in an insecure business. Most GM's only get a chance to hire one or two head coaches. If Rex gets more out of this team than anyone expected this year, extending him for a couple years potentially extends Idzik's career here, too.

 

Yes, that's one of the points I was trying to make. All of us need to think about this situation from Idzik's point of view and not a fan's point of view. For Idzik, this is his job, he can't afford to make decisions on a whim like we fans would like to do on a weekly basis. Right now, my opinion is that Idzik is far less concerned about the performance of Rex as a HC and far more concerned about the performance of his draft picks because at the end of the day that is probably the bulk of what he is going to be evaluated on come the end of the season. 

 

But everyone, put yourself in Idzik's shoes and say the Jets go 8-8, miss the playoffs narrowly, and Geno shows improvement and promise. Do you really fire Rex? Are you really willing to make the unsafe decision? Fire Rex after such a season, and you are essentially betting on the next coach who you haven't even found yet to do as good or better than 8-8, and the question is, with your professional reputation on the line, as well as your job potentially, are you willing to make such a decision in your sophomore year as a general manager? I wouldn't be willing to make that decision if I were Idzik, the chances for it to backfire on me are greater than it working out. What's more is that I don't have a free pass, if I fail at this GM job I may never get another shot at it! Under such a scenario, professionally speaking, the safe and smart choice is to give Rex a short term extension. Like I said, it is a can't lose situation for Idzik, if it works out he looks great for showing restraint and patience with the inherited head coach, and if it doesn't work out then Rex is the one who looks bad while Idzik gets off lightly for rightfully thinking the Jets were going in the right direction at the head coach position after 2013.

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So if he was 5-0, he would have broken even? LOL

 

I thought I made it clear in my explanation that wins don't necessarily equate to +1 performances. It's altogether possible that Rex coaches like sh*t and the Jets get lucky, or a player steps up and does something, or the opponent implodes to hand us a lucky win - Rex doesn't deserve merit for that.

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Mornhinweg is from a giant Walsh-Holmgren-Reid coaching tree--one that Idzik had been around in Seattle. If he wanted to fire Rex, but keep Mornhinweg, he'll be able to find a coach that employs relatively the same offensive philosophy.

 

in today's NFL the HC is almost secondary to the QB; however, I think the Seattle reference is a good one.  

 

If you look at Seattle's success, they had no problem churning QB's until they found one they liked.   The big lesson there is to cut your losses as soon as you realize you don't have a potential franchise QB.    Hassleback, Whitehurst, Tavaris Jackson, Flynn, Wilson.   That's 5 QBs in 3 seasons and a couple of high draft picks.  

 

My guess is that Idzik takes the same approach here.  Regardless of the season that Geno has this year he should expect to compete for the starting spot again next year.   

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Mornhinweg is from a giant Walsh-Holmgren-Reid coaching tree--one that Idzik had been around in Seattle. If he wanted to fire Rex, but keep Mornhinweg, he'll be able to find a coach that employs relatively the same offensive philosophy.

 

Thanks Tom, the Seattle reference is a good one.  I think that team overachieved bigtime.

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That's pretty much how I feel.

The Falcons were a +1 for Rex, but the loss to the Patriots and Tennessee were -2. The Bills are neutral. The Tampa game was pure luck, they should have beaten us, at best I give it a neutral, but could be convinced to make it a -1.

 

Putting Rex at -2 on the season, so far.

 

The Falcons game almost got blown too... I think people are getting ahead of themselves tbh. That Falcons team is not last year's team. They are hurt ALL OVER the defense, the O-line and at all the skill positions. The healthiest guys they have are Matty Ice and Gonzo, and those 2 almost beat TEH VAUNTUD DEFENZ us on their own.

 

Why -2 and not -5?  They are 0-5 like the Giants, NO?  This is so freaking unbelievable not only is so damn hard to win a game in the NFL but also to think that this same Jets with their lack of talents and a rookie QB were ranked 32 out of 32 by ESPN. They were also given only 3 wins the whole year which they had already match.   

 

Rex so far exceeded expectation. 

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ESPN had them ranked at 32 and given only 3 wins.  I take them more seriously than mr know it all.  :sign0182:

 

See, the thing is, Tom looked at the schedule and said "Well, team x, y, z, etc are bad teams that we'll beat to make Rex look good."  But we were SUPPOSED to be one of those bad teams.  

 

The bar keeps getting set higher for this team because we've NEVER been a bad team under Rex, as much as people would like to say that '12 team was really bad.  When you win 6 games with the worst QB play of all-time (but still manage NOT to lose the team), don't lose a whole lot over the offseason, and your GM has a smart draft....that's a recipe for some high upside, especially when you DO find a guy who MIGHT be a real QB.

 

When your absolute floor is 6 wins because your HC can scheme his way to victories by coaching alone, that's not a coach you fire.  A truly bad coach would have only won 2 games last year and would have already been fired.  But Rex as an NFL HC gives us something in the range of + 2 or + 3 wins every year over an average replacement coach.  Again, you DO NOT fire a guy like that in this league.  You're more likely to extend his contract and be thankful he's there.  If you cut out all the stupid nitpicking that's really the bottom line here.

 

To add to this, not that the players' opinion should heavily be taken into account, but has any player ever said a bad thing about Rex?  Even opposing players?  No, because he's highly respected in this league.  Players love him.  Meanwhile, you hear nothing but bad things about guys like Mangini and Schiano.  Not a great comparison to make but it's still there.  Rex does right by his players and they do right by him.  There's something to be said for that as well. 

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If they fire Rex, do they tell the new coach that he has to keep MM? Giving Geno a new OC each of his first two years will not help him develop. It would be back to SOJ. That is, assuming that it's determined that Geno will be next year's starter.

Yeah that's what I am nervous about. I really feel like MM is the best OC we have had in a long time. It is refreshing and exciting seeing the Jets offense this year, even with a lack of wr talent. I think the Jets now have great minds on both sides of the ball and Rex has an OC he can leave in charge of the offense.

I can't see how any really good head coach would stand for bring stuck with a legacy coordinator.

I really think Rex is on track to a good enough season that he should keep his job. Everyone is saying how great the defense is, but remember exactly how many starters were cut and released this off season. Nobody saw a really dominant defense like this coming into the season. Heck, we lost maybe what was the best defensive player in the league.

Rex went to the afc championship twice in 4 years which were also his first 4 years as a head coach, with a rookie and second year qb now viewed in year 5 as a bust. He had a year with a terrible oc and 3 with a mediocre at best oc who wasn't good enough to handle the offensive reigns himself.

I hope Woody makes the right decision here, realizing the front office didn't put this team in a position talent wise to be nearly as competitive as they are this season.

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Very good post.

Lost in all the conversation about Idzik wanting to hire his own guy is the very real probability that Idzik would really just like to have some job security in an insecure business. Most GM's only get a chance to hire one or two head coaches. If Rex gets more out of this team than anyone expected this year, extending him for a couple years potentially extends Idzik's career here, too.

 

Option #3 is to just let Rex coach out his contract in 2014 and see how it goes.    

 

I don't think that's Idzik's style but it is an option.  

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See, the thing is, Tom looked at the schedule and said "Well, team x, y, z, etc are bad teams that we'll beat to make Rex look good." But we were SUPPOSED to be one of those bad teams.

The bar keeps getting set higher for this team because we've NEVER been a bad team under Rex, as much as people would like to say that '12 team was really bad. When you win 6 games with the worst QB play of all-time (but still manage NOT to lose the team), don't lose a whole lot over the offseason, and your GM has a smart draft....that's a recipe for some high upside, especially when you DO find a guy who MIGHT be a real QB.

When your absolute floor is 6 wins because your HC can scheme his way to victories by coaching alone, that's not a coach you fire. A truly bad coach would have only won 2 games last year and would have already been fired. But Rex as an NFL HC gives us something in the range of + 2 or + 3 wins every year over an average replacement coach. Again, you DO NOT fire a guy like that in this league. You're more likely to extend his contract and be thankful he's there. If you cut out all the stupid nitpicking that's really the bottom line here.

To add to this, not that the players' opinion should heavily be taken into account, but has any player ever said a bad thing about Rex? Even opposing players? No, because he's highly respected in this league. Players love him. Meanwhile, you hear nothing but bad things about guys like Mangini and Schiano. Not a great comparison to make but it's still there. Rex does right by his players and they do right by him. There's something to be said for that as well.

The Chiefs are a great example of this, with a change of coach and to a serviceable qb they went from the bottom to the top of the league. If Rex were a bad coach we would have been chiefs bad last season.

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The Chiefs are a great example of this, with a change of coach and to a serviceable qb they went from the bottom to the top of the league. If Rex were a bad coach we would have been chiefs bad last season.

 

They also had 6 Pro Bowlers last season.  Speaks more to just how bad Romeo Crennel was than anything else.  I like Andy Reid and Alex Smith, but that team was never as bad we were led to believe.

 

It'll be interesting to see how KC does in their 2 meetings with Denver.  So far they've played 3 pretty lousy teams (Jaguars, Giants, Eagles), 1 OK team (Cowboys) and 1 good team (Titans).  Next they get Oakland, Houston, Cleveland and the Bills.  They could be 9-0 heading into their bye week, before that first Denver game in Week 11.

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No. I am saying that even a great defense will have trouble stopping teams. A defense that isn't great will let a rookie QB with NO WRs walk down the field and kick a field goal in 1:54. Hell the Jets about 40 seconds to spare when they got into FG range. That is what a lesser defense looks like.

EJ Manuel went down the field in the fourth quarter against this great defense to tie the game. He's a rookie. Josh Freeman went down the field to take the lead against this great defense then was cut three weeks later. I'm not sure how comparing Rex's supposedly great defense to Mike Smith's supposedly sh*tty defense helps Rex considering Rex's defense has habitually done the same thing this season.

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Very good post.

Lost in all the conversation about Idzik wanting to hire his own guy is the very real probability that Idzik would really just like to have some job security in an insecure business. Most GM's only get a chance to hire one or two head coaches. If Rex gets more out of this team than anyone expected this year, extending him for a couple years potentially extends Idzik's career here, too.

This makes zero sense.

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If Idzik knows what he's doing with Rex at the end of the year, why would he even bother scrutinizing him? Lol.

In contrast to the article's headline, the owner's comments towards Rex were much warmer than his comments towards Idzik. Let's face it, Woody loves himself some Rex - that love is the reason he's still here this season. And just as John Idzik was quick to interject himself into the QB selection process, you can bet that Woody will be interjecting himself into the head coaching selection process. I suspect that Idzik will have to put together a much stronger case for firing Rex than just, I want to hire my own guy!

The point being that if Idzik wants to fire Rex, he could put together a great case as of right now even despite the 3-2 record. Messing up the clock against Tampa and having to get bailed out after Josh Freeman walked down the field to take the lead, screwing up the challenges against the Bills and watching EJ Manuel walk down the field to tie the game in the fourth quarter, getting nuked by Tennessee, and, again, letting the Falcons walk down the field to take the lead late in the fourth. Rex's best game so far has been the Pats game where he went toe to toe with Brady, only to be subverted by the rookie QB. If Rex goes 8-8 or worse, and Idzik and Woody have that conversation, I don't think it'd be hard to sell Woody on firing Rex at all. Woody loved Tannenbaum, too. Still slit his throat.

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in today's NFL the HC is almost secondary to the QB; however, I think the Seattle reference is a good one.

If you look at Seattle's success, they had no problem churning QB's until they found one they liked. The big lesson there is to cut your losses as soon as you realize you don't have a potential franchise QB. Hassleback, Whitehurst, Tavaris Jackson, Flynn, Wilson. That's 5 QBs in 3 seasons and a couple of high draft picks.

My guess is that Idzik takes the same approach here. Regardless of the season that Geno has this year he should expect to compete for the starting spot again next year.

I'm very high on Idzik and I agree that I think he'll bring a cutthroat mentality to this organization--no one gets handed a job-for-life anymore, regardless of contract, which is quite a departure from the last four seasons.

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The point being that if Idzik wants to fire Rex, he could put together a great case as of right now even despite the 3-2 record. Messing up the clock against Tampa and having to get bailed out after Josh Freeman walked down the field to take the lead, screwing up the challenges against the Bills and watching EJ Manuel walk down the field to tie the game in the fourth quarter, getting nuked by Tennessee, and, again, letting the Falcons walk down the field to take the lead late in the fourth. Rex's best game so far has been the Pats game where he went toe to toe with Brady, only to be subverted by the rookie QB. If Rex goes 8-8 or worse, and Idzik and Woody have that conversation, I don't think it'd be hard to sell Woody on firing Rex at all. Woody loved Tannenbaum, too. Still slit his throat.

 

Haha! You can cling to this all you like, but Rex is doing a great job with a depleted roster and a rookie QB. Sorry.

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See, the thing is, Tom looked at the schedule and said "Well, team x, y, z, etc are bad teams that we'll beat to make Rex look good." But we were SUPPOSED to be one of those bad teams.

Gobbledygook.

The bar keeps getting set higher for this team because we've NEVER been a bad team under Rex, as much as people would like to say that '12 team was really bad.

They lost seven games by double digits, four of them by 20+. If any coach is playing a quarterback whose plus/minus is -20, he deserves to he fired based on that alone.

When you win 6 games with the worst QB play of all-time (but still manage NOT to lose the team)

The team was 0-6 over the last three games of the '12 and '11 seasons with an average margin of defeat of ~13 points. If that's not quitting, the no team has ever quit ever.

When your absolute floor is 6 wins because your HC can scheme his way to victories by coaching alone, that's not a coach you fire. A truly bad coach would have only won 2 games last year and would have already been fired.

You must have loved Herm Edwards.

But Rex as an NFL HC gives us something in the range of + 2 or + 3 wins every year over an average replacement coach.

……………………I just want you to keep reading this aloud to yourself until it shames you into deleting your account here.

Again, you DO NOT fire a guy like that in this league. You're more likely to extend his contract and be thankful he's there. If you cut out all the stupid nitpicking that's really the bottom line here.

Stupid nitpicking is still more meritorious than selective ignorance.

To add to this, not that the players' opinion should heavily be taken into account, but has any player ever said a bad thing about Rex? Even opposing players? No, because he's highly respected in this league. Players love him.

Players loved Herm, too.

Meanwhile, you hear nothing but bad things about guys like Mangini and Schiano.

And Belichick and Coughlin and Bill Walsh and the Harbaugh brothers and Chuck Noll.

Not a great comparison to make but it's still there. Rex does right by his players and they do right by him. There's something to be said for that as well.

And Pete Carroll.

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