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The other question besides Rex...

Freemanm

By Freemanm
in NY Jets Forum

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Jacked4JetsFB

Jacked4JetsFB

Posted
Posted

Well we all know those were the two most improbable victories in NFL history. Totally never happens to any other team. And it only makes it worse because 2 plays are indicative of history that we all are accustomed to, which is that the Jets have routinely been the beneficiaries of the refs being in the tank for them game after game, season after season.

Just out of curiosity, how is the point differential looking?

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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False.

Sometimes pure stats over-analyze & over-think. At some point they need to look at the results of their statistical analysis and ask themselves if any season ended the way they're predicting it's going to. 7.3 was the mean wins for the Jets using DVOA on September 4th. But using DVOA also caused them to predict that no team in the NFL would finish with worse than a 6-10 record or better than an 11-5 record in 2013. Lowest prediction was Minnesota at 5.7 wins (6-10 record) and Denver with 10.7 wins (11-5).

Literally, the stat model predicted that every team in the NFL would finish between 6-10 and 11-5. That the team with the best regular-season record would finish with only 5 more wins than the team with the worst record. That was their DVOA prediction, and even the writers on their own website know that was never going to happen.

You're completely misapprehending the definition of "mean wins." What FO does is plug all their numbers into a computer and run a million simulations, a la PECOTA. The projections you're citing are mean wins, which are necessarily going to be pulled toward the middle given such a huge data set. A more useful way to think about it is a range of probable outcomes, in which it breaks down thusly: 12% chance of 0-4 wins, 37% chance of 5-7 wins, 39% chance of 8-10 wins, 11% chance of 11+ wins.

By the way, Scott Kacsmar from FootballOutsiders predicted the Jets would be 3-13. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2013/kacsmar-and-smiths-predict-2013-nfl-season. He links to his predictions at the top of paragraph 2.

Then here they reference the DVOA-prediction article and the 11 writers predicted who would finish below their 2013 DVOA predictions and why. Of the 11 writers, 3 of them specifically predicted the Jets' DVOA numbers were the most likely to be overrated. As in they said their own website's DVOA prediction was faulty.

Ben Muth from FootballOutsiders: "I just can't see the Gang Green winning more than six games; the only thing worse than the Jets wideouts is the Jets quarterback situation. If I was Rex Ryan I'd rather watch Clemson play too."

Mike Ridley from FootballOutsiders (on why he felt the Jets were the most likely team to fall short of the website's DVOA win prediction): "Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Brady Quinn..."

Another (Rob Weintraub) from FO also predicted the Jets were the most likely team to fall short of the computer model's DVOA win prediction. The last line in the article, he predicted the Jets to have the #1 pick in the 2014 draft (but only to be different because everyone else said Oakland would have the #1 pick and they'd take Clowney; still, it would seem that he felt the Jets would have the #2 overall pick at best).

So these are FooballOutsiders.com's OWN AUTHORS acknowledging that not only are those numbers not what they thought each team's win total would actually be, but with 32 teams to single out and choose from, 3 out of 11 pinpointed the Jets as the most likely to fall short of the 7.3 wins their model predicted (and listed players as the reason). It means the authors thought that prediction was ridiculous based on the roster they headed into the season with.

Then these same authors took a stab at which teams they felt the computer model underestimated win totals. Zero of them picked the Jets.

They also say up-front that their predictions are probably wrong, but yes, those guys should stick to number-crunching. My entire point here is that anecdotal predictions are unreliable.

You would have to search high & low & cherry-pick the outliers to find people who firmly predicted the Jets would win 7 games this season.

Or we could just stop quoting anecdotal predictions as if they're worth a damn, and throw out predictions of any kind when it comes to the fate of our head coach.

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Sperm Edwards

Sperm Edwards

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You're completely misapprehending the definition of "mean wins." What FO does is plug all their numbers into a computer and run a million simulations, a la PECOTA. The projections you're citing are mean wins, which are necessarily going to be pulled toward the middle given such a huge data set. A more useful way to think about it is a range of probable outcomes, in which it breaks down thusly: 12% chance of 0-4 wins, 37% chance of 5-7 wins, 39% chance of 8-10 wins, 11% chance of 11+ wins.

They also say up-front that their predictions are probably wrong, but yes, those guys should stick to number-crunching. My entire point here is that anecdotal predictions are unreliable.

Or we could just stop quoting anecdotal predictions as if they're worth a damn, and throw out predictions of any kind when it comes to the fate of our head coach.

 

Not that at all.  Just that it is a small minority of people - whether professionals, fans, or whomever - who thought the Jets would win 7+ games this season.  One really has to go out of one's way to find them.

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AVM

AVM

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Posted

EXTENSIONS FOR EVERYONE

 

 

Let's try this: you guys dig up a reputable source that says we were going to win 3 games this year, and we'll go from there.

 

 

Not that at all.  Just that it is a small minority of people - whether professionals, fans, or whomever - who thought the Jets would win 7+ games this season.  One really has to go out of one's way to find them.

 

 

So?

 

lol

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Lizard King

Lizard King

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Not that at all. Just that it is a small minority of people - whether professionals, fans, or whomever - who thought the Jets would win 7+ games this season. One really has to go out of one's way to find them.

Next year they should just print the results and not say anything. Either that, or they were so confident in their analysis that they all took the under hoping that we would have this convo at the end of the year like we are. I don't see the value in them essentially rejecting their own method though. Personally I am a hard numbers guy, and if the success rate of their formula is accurate enough, i care more about what the computer thinks than they do save for making a fun predicition.

Also- i am making an assumption here that this program is pretty accurate- if Rex met his benchmarks in both FO &Vegas (money is best motivator for intelligent decision making)- u dont have a good reason to fire him. I realize most people won't agree with my logic here and I understand why you probablu wouldnt.

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Sperm Edwards

Sperm Edwards

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Next year they should just print the results and not say anything. Either that, or they were so confident in their analysis that they all took the under hoping that we would have this convo at the end of the year like we are. I don't see the value in them essentially rejecting their own method though. Personally I am a hard numbers guy, and if the success rate of their formula is accurate enough, i care more about what the computer thinks than they do save for making a fun predicition.

Also- i am making an assumption here that this program is pretty accurate- if Rex met his benchmarks in both FO &Vegas (money is best motivator for intelligent decision making)- u dont have a good reason to fire him. I realize most people won't agree with my logic here and I understand why you probablu wouldnt.

 

Their numbers & methodology in this instance predicted the team with the best record and the team with the worst record being separated by 5 wins.  Like when has that ever happened?

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SenorGato

SenorGato

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Also- i am making an assumption here that this program is pretty accurate- if Rex met his benchmarks in both FO &Vegas (money is best motivator for intelligent decision making)- u dont have a good reason to fire him. I realize most people won't agree with my logic here and I understand why you probablu wouldnt. 

 

 

 
FO's projection of 7.5 games doesn't mean anything if they win the last two. Call it luck and get an Offensive Coach in here and begin Changing the Culture. We need to focus on Passing the Ball, and that will not happen with Ryan hiring guys like Sparano.
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Lizard King

Lizard King

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FO's projection of 7.5 games doesn't mean anything if they win the last two. Call it luck and get an Offensive Coach in here and begin Changing the Culture. We need to focus on Passing the Ball, and that will not happen with Ryan hiring guys like Sparano.

Is 7.5 valid if one team leads one half and the other team leads the second half?? Also, where do we find Football Men who are Disciplinarians

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joewillie78

joewillie78

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Is Geno the QB of the future? Always easy to say yes after he had a good game. He has thrown a lot of ugly pics this year, but if the Jets FO surround him with good receivers, is he the guy?

I said NO after Sanchez's first year (but that was an easy one as no NFL QB succeeds from USC). and I am saying absolutely NOT after Smith's first year.

 

And surprise, surprise, the top 2 seeds in the AFC are Manning and Brady. Go figure.

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joewillie78

joewillie78

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Geno had a pretty good game today.

It was against a horrible team.

Let's see him play well again next week and I would feel much better about him.

But it was a good performance which is good to see.

Just out of curiosity, In SANCHEZ's 4 years of infamy, how many times would we sit there watching a game and say, wow, Sanchez finally gets it, and then the very next game puts up about a 9.5 QBR and we tear our hair out.

 

This kid seems to be reading from SANCHEZ;s script, word for word, as he has done the same thing. I am in no way being even the least bit swayed by todays performance. Mark Sanchez saw to that.

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Jacked4JetsFB

Jacked4JetsFB

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Just out of curiosity, In SANCHEZ's 4 years of infamy, how many times would we sit there watching a game and say, wow, Sanchez finally gets it, and then the very next game puts up about a 9.5 QBR and we tear our hair out.

This kid seems to be reading from SANCHEZ;s script, word for word, as he has done the same thing. I am in no way being even the least bit swayed by todays performance. Mark Sanchez saw to that.

Woh.

I did not say anything other than e had a pretty good game today.

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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False.

Sometimes pure stats over-analyze & over-think. At some point they need to look at the results of their statistical analysis and ask themselves if any season ended the way they're predicting it's going to. 7.3 was the mean wins for the Jets using DVOA on September 4th. But using DVOA also caused them to predict that no team in the NFL would finish with worse than a 6-10 record or better than an 11-5 record in 2013. Lowest prediction was Minnesota at 5.7 wins (6-10 record) and Denver with 10.7 wins (11-5).

Literally, the stat model predicted that every team in the NFL would finish between 6-10 and 11-5. That the team with the best regular-season record would finish with only 5 more wins than the team with the worst record. That was their DVOA prediction, and even the writers on their own website know that was never going to happen.

By the way, Scott Kacsmar from FootballOutsiders predicted the Jets would be 3-13. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2013/kacsmar-and-smiths-predict-2013-nfl-season. He links to his predictions at the top of paragraph 2.

Then here they reference the DVOA-prediction article and the 11 writers predicted who would finish below their 2013 DVOA predictions and why. Of the 11 writers, 3 of them specifically predicted the Jets' DVOA numbers were the most likely to be overrated. As in they said their own website's DVOA prediction was faulty.

Ben Muth from FootballOutsiders: "I just can't see the Gang Green winning more than six games; the only thing worse than the Jets wideouts is the Jets quarterback situation. If I was Rex Ryan I'd rather watch Clemson play too."

Mike Ridley from FootballOutsiders (on why he felt the Jets were the most likely team to fall short of the website's DVOA win prediction): "Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Brady Quinn..."

Another (Rob Weintraub) from FO also predicted the Jets were the most likely team to fall short of the computer model's DVOA win prediction. The last line in the article, he predicted the Jets to have the #1 pick in the 2014 draft (but only to be different because everyone else said Oakland would have the #1 pick and they'd take Clowney; still, it would seem that he felt the Jets would have the #2 overall pick at best).

So these are FooballOutsiders.com's OWN AUTHORS acknowledging that not only are those numbers not what they thought each team's win total would actually be, but with 32 teams to single out and choose from, 3 out of 11 pinpointed the Jets as the most likely to fall short of the 7.3 wins their model predicted (and listed players as the reason). It means the authors thought that prediction was ridiculous based on the roster they headed into the season with.

Then these same authors took a stab at which teams they felt the computer model underestimated win totals. Zero of them picked the Jets.

You would have to search high & low & cherry-pick the outliers to find people who firmly predicted the Jets would win 7 games this season.

I predicted the Jets would win seven games because there are five great teams in the league, four awful teams, and 23 teams that are the products of a parity-ridden garbage festival that makes it nearly impossible to finish more than +/- 2 games off of .500. Anyone predicting <4 wins was trolling.
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joewillie78

joewillie78

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Woh.

I did not say anything other than e had a pretty good game today.

Oh no, Sorry if I insinuated that I thought you were sold on Smith. I was just giving an example of something that is so recent in our memories, that anytime Smith has a "decent" game obviously is not a time to celebrate.

 

Sorry again.

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Jacked4JetsFB

Jacked4JetsFB

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Oh no, Sorry if I insinuated that I thought you were sold on Smith. I was just giving an example of something that is so recent in our memories, that anytime Smith has a "decent" game obviously is not a time to celebrate.

Sorry again.

No worries.

It's all good in the hood.

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joewillie78

joewillie78

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I predicted the Jets would win seven games because there are five great teams in the league, four awful teams, and 23 teams that are the products of a parity-ridden garbage festival that makes it nearly impossible to finish +/- 2 games off of .500. Anyone predicting <4 wins was trolling.

OK, I'll take a stab:

 

5 Great

 

Denver, Seattle, San Francisco, New England, KC

 

4 awful

 

Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota

 

I am more sure of the bottom 4 than the top 5.

 

How'd I do?

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Jacked4JetsFB

Jacked4JetsFB

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I predicted the Jets would win seven games because there are five great teams in the league, four awful teams, and 23 teams that are the products of a parity-ridden garbage festival that makes it nearly impossible to finish +/- 2 games off of .500. Anyone predicting <4 wins was trolling.

This is 100% correct.

Our defense alone facing the garbage we face schedule wise was enough for 6-7 wins.

This nonsense about this being such a great coaching job is just that.

When you are 5-4 and have a bunch if cupcake teams in front of you for the playoffs, a real coach makes the playoffs.

It's really insane the status Rex has achieved.

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Matt39

Matt39

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This is 100% correct.

Our defense alone facing the garbage we face schedule wise was enough for 6-7 wins.

This nonsense about this being such a great coaching job is just that.

When you are 5-4 and have a bunch if cupcake teams in front of you for the playoffs, a real coach makes the playoffs.

It's really insane the status Rex has achieved.

 

Pretty much. The schedule wasn't exactly murderers row this season. The one marquee win was the Patriots game. The Saints can't score on the road this season for whatever reason. Other than that we won the games we were supposed to win and lost the games  we were supposed to lose. I thought they played pretty well today, but its not like we've looked overly impressive in many of the 7  wins.

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BroadwayJoe12

BroadwayJoe12

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This is 100% correct.

Our defense alone facing the garbage we face schedule wise was enough for 6-7 wins.

This nonsense about this being such a great coaching job is just that.

When you are 5-4 and have a bunch if cupcake teams in front of you for the playoffs, a real coach makes the playoffs.

It's really insane the status Rex has achieved.

 

Ehh, not sure I'd call @ Baltimore, @ Carolina, @ Buffalo (where they are tough) and two games against Miami a cup-cake schedule.  Not an insanely tough one, but not sure how'd you call them cup-cakes. 

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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Anyone with a QB rating in the 80's who knows how to take care of the ball will do as a bridge move.

 

None of these exist on the QB market.  Jay Cutler might put up an 80+ QB rating but he doesn't take care of the ball.  Not to mention he'd cost a fortune.  Everyone else is likely to be in the sub-80 variety.

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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Pretty much. The schedule wasn't exactly murderers row this season. The one marquee win was the Patriots game. The Saints can't score on the road this season for whatever reason. Other than that we won the games we were supposed to win and lost the games we were supposed to lose. I thought they played pretty well today, but its not like we've looked overly impressive in many of the 7 wins.

Average margin of defeat: 18.37 points

Average margin of victory: 5.71 points

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