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Am I the only one that wants Eric Ebron as our first rounder?


BroadwayJets
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The Jets should take the best WR or TE or RB at 18 as long as the player is a play maker,but everyone know the Jets will go D with the first pick like always 

 

Depends. If the top 3 WRs are off the board while we grab a starting TE in the FA, I can see the Jets either dropping back or drafting D with the 18th.

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It's not that Ebron isn't the goods, but more the fact the Jets are offensively 2 to 3 years away from benifiting from a V Davis type TE, and need to use the 18th overall pick on a much more sound foundation type position, and if Ebron is the BAP at 18 then the Jets should probably trade back, and accumulate more picks so they will be in a position to afford to gamble on a freak at TE in Rd 1 in 2, or 3 years. This team is not 1 TE away offensively now. I reserve the right to change my mind if the Jets go BIG in free agency filling every hole with solid talent, but even then I would still take a more sound foundation type player, but would not be pissed about it.

 

So we shouldn't take a TE in the draft until the very year we need a TE as a last puzzle piece? No offense, but that's an awful strategy. Players take time to develop.  The Gronkowski type that catches 10 TDs as a rookie are insanely rare.

 

The Cameron kid on Cleveland is pretty damn good.  He didn't do much of anything until his 3rd season.

Celek in Philly also did nothing until year 3.

Pitta in Baltimore.  Year 3.

Julius Thomas, year 3.

Antonio Gates (also a rarity as a HOFer), still took to year 2. Ditto Jason Witten, who's also probably headed to Canton.

DateRape G-Reg Olsen wasn't a full-time starter until year 3.

 
These guys are ALL good (or better).  None of them were any "last piece to the puzzle" types as rookies.  Not only are you asking the Jets to hit on a TE in the draft in the very year they need one.  You're also asking for such a TE to actually come out of college that year.  To say it is unusual is a gross understatement.  The one you cited, Vernon Davis, didn't really come into his own until his 4th NFL season.  
 
I don't know dick about Ebron, so I'm not advocating for him (or advocating against him).  But if they think he can consistently be an 800+ yard TE within 2-3 years I'd be interested.  TE isn't the type of position like RB where there's a short window so heavily investing in one too early can prove to be a waste of resources.  A solid TE can start for a decade (contract terms permitting).
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So we shouldn't take a TE in the draft until the very year we need a TE as a last puzzle piece? No offense, but that's an awful strategy. Players take time to develop. The Gronkowski type that catches 10 TDs as a rookie are insanely rare.

The Cameron kid on Cleveland is pretty damn good. He didn't do much of anything until his 3rd season.

Celek in Philly also did nothing until year 3.

Pitta in Baltimore. Year 3.

Julius Thomas, year 3.

Antonio Gates (also a rarity as a HOFer), still took to year 2. Ditto Jason Witten, who's also probably headed to Canton.

DateRape G-Reg Olsen wasn't a full-time starter until year 3.

These guys are ALL good (or better). None of them were any "last piece to the puzzle" types as rookies. Not only are you asking the Jets to hit on a TE in the draft in the very year they need one. You're also asking for such a TE to actually come out of college that year. To say it is unusual is a gross understatement. The one you cited, Vernon Davis, didn't really come into his own until his 4th NFL season.

I don't know dick about Ebron, so I'm not advocating for him (or advocating against him). But if they think he can consistently be an 800+ yard TE within 2-3 years I'd be interested. TE isn't the type of position like RB where there's a short window so heavily investing in one too early can prove to be a waste of resources. A solid TE can start for a decade (contract terms permitting).

I'm speaking for Rd 1 only, how many of those guys were drafted in the 1st round?

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IDK about that 

 

Rob Rang has him at 18, Pete Brisco has him at 21, pat Kirwan has him at 21, Walter.com has him at 15, and Kiper has him at 16.

 

Think there is a great chance he'll be there at 18

no way he gets past BOTH balt and pitts... imho anyways

if he gets to 18, we will 100% draft him,,,100%

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I'm speaking for Rd 1 only, how many of those guys were drafted in the 1st round?

 

There's certainly the guy you cited, Vernon Davis. Also Greg Olsen.

 

In '09 Detroit took Pettigrew, who's available as a FA now and would be pretty ok with picking him up if his price isn't well above his production level.  He didn't do much as a rookie, but that was back when Stafford was hurt all the time, was a rookie anyway, and when he was hurt they put Daunte Culpepper in there to accomplish nothing productive.

 

Heath Miller was good right from the get-go.

 

Kellen Winslow was too busy being the knucklehead f*cking solja from The U his first 2 seasons to accomplish anything on a football field. Year 3 he caught almost 90 passes.

We took Dustin Keller in 2008. You know his story.  Chris Baker still started for most of his rookie season.

 

Dallas Clark was an important outlet for Peyton but for a 1st round pick was meh stats-wise until his 5th season.  Ditto Marcedes Lewis and his 126 receiving yards as a rookie.  Year 5 he had 700 yds and 10 TDs (though that production was never repeated again).

 

Cincy has taken 2 in the past 4 drafts (Eifert and Gresham). Gresham started 10 games as a rookie.  The next 2 years after that he was a pro-bowler. Last year his #s fell short, but that's probably due to Eifert's presence as well as Marvin Jones putting up some numbers, against the Jets in particular.

 

NE also took 2 over a few drafts (Graham & Watson).  Neither were productive as rookies, though I can't remember if Watson was hurt most of the year; he only played in 1 game.  Though still in the league, he never turned into the weapon NE envisioned (like Gronk or the killer).

 

Like I said, a couple of guys were productive right away, but I wouldn't stay away from them because of it.  TE isn't a position where someone's a bright flame that burns out.  So Shockey was drafted in 2002 and was 1st team all pro.  2 years later the Giants drafted their QB.  Health Miller was drafted right before Roethlisberger's 2nd season.  I don't weigh his value purely by receiving numbers because he's not a 1-dimensional receiver-only. A lot of his value was as a blocker.  That was supposed to be the case with Pettigrew as well.  Same with Todd Heap who was stuck behind Sharpe as a rookie.  Year 2 Sharpe was gone and Heap was a stud who (when healthy) was productive for about a decade.

 

I'm had to go back pretty far - Heap was drafted in 2001 and Graham in 2002 - but there are only so many TEs drafted in round 1.  This is part of the point I was making; there aren't TEs worthy of a round 1 pick every year.  If Ebron is one of these special players - and I'm not saying he is because you'd know better than I would - I wouldn't pass up on him because "it's too early in our rebuild for us to take offensive, difference-making, receiving targets."  There is no bad time to take a player like that, and they're not necessarily available the year you want one (or even within 3 years of when you want one).

Oh yeah, and the best of them all - Tony Gonzalez - did nothing as a rookie (33 rec, 368 yds, 2 TDs) and was only pretty-good in year 2. Year 3 he began his beast-tear that was still going through age 37 this past season. He was drafted in round 1 back in 1997.

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There's certainly the guy you cited, Vernon Davis. Also Greg Olsen.

In '09 Detroit took Pettigrew, who's available as a FA now and would be pretty ok with picking him up if his price isn't well above his production level. He didn't do much as a rookie, but that was back when Stafford was hurt all the time, was a rookie anyway, and when he was hurt they put Daunte Culpepper in there to accomplish nothing productive.

Heath Miller was good right from the get-go.

Kellen Winslow was too busy being the knucklehead f*cking solja from The U his first 2 seasons to accomplish anything on a football field. Year 3 he caught almost 90 passes.

We took Dustin Keller in 2008. You know his story. Chris Baker still started for most of his rookie season.

Dallas Clark was an important outlet for Peyton but for a 1st round pick was meh stats-wise until his 5th season. Ditto Marcedes Lewis and his 126 receiving yards as a rookie. Year 5 he had 700 yds and 10 TDs (though that production was never repeated again).

Cincy has taken 2 in the past 4 drafts (Eifert and Gresham). Gresham started 10 games as a rookie. The next 2 years after that he was a pro-bowler. Last year his #s fell short, but that's probably due to Eifert's presence as well as Marvin Jones putting up some numbers, against the Jets in particular.

NE also took 2 over a few drafts (Graham & Watson). Neither were productive as rookies, though I can't remember if Watson was hurt most of the year; he only played in 1 game. Though still in the league, he never turned into the weapon NE envisioned (like Gronk or the killer).

Like I said, a couple of guys were productive right away, but I wouldn't stay away from them because of it. TE isn't a position where someone's a bright flame that burns out. So Shockey was drafted in 2002 and was 1st team all pro. 2 years later the Giants drafted their QB. Health Miller was drafted right before Roethlisberger's 2nd season. I don't weigh his value purely by receiving numbers because he's not a 1-dimensional receiver-only. A lot of his value was as a blocker. That was supposed to be the case with Pettigrew as well. Same with Todd Heap who was stuck behind Sharpe as a rookie. Year 2 Sharpe was gone and Heap was a stud who (when healthy) was productive for about a decade.

I'm had to go back pretty far - Heap was drafted in 2001 and Graham in 2002 - but there are only so many TEs drafted in round 1. This is part of the point I was making; there aren't TEs worthy of a round 1 pick every year. If Ebron is one of these special players - and I'm not saying he is because you'd know better than I would - I wouldn't pass up on him because "it's too early in our rebuild for us to take offensive, difference-making, receiving targets." There is no bad time to take a player like that, and they're not necessarily available the year you want one (or even within 3 years of when you want one).

Oh yeah, and the best of them all - Tony Gonzalez - did nothing as a rookie (33 rec, 368 yds, 2 TDs) and was only pretty-good in year 2. Year 3 he began his beast-tear that was still going through age 37 this past season. He was drafted in round 1 back in 1997.

Point well taken.

I'd still prefer a foundation type player in Rd 1 at a high priced position IE WR, OT, Pass Rusher, CB, but that's my opinion.

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Point well taken.

I'd still prefer a foundation type player in Rd 1 at a high priced position IE WR, OT, Pass Rusher, CB, but that's my opinion.

Understandable enough. But they don't pick in the top 5 so other positions do get taken in the Jets' draft slot.

I'd much rather have a top-notch TE than a so-so WR or CB.

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PROSPECT PROFILE: ERIC EBRON

   

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Athletic tight ends are in demand in the NFL, and North Carolina's Eric Ebron is clearly the best available in this year's draft. (USA TODAY Sports)

By Russ Lande

Ever since Kellen Winslow made an instant impact in the high-powered Air Coryell Chargers offense, explosive tight ends have become the ultimate chess piece for creative offensive coordinators, which is why teams constantly draft them so high.

 

North Carolina's Eric Ebron fits the mold of game-changing tight end to a tee, and he is the best tight end prospect I have evaluated since Kellen Winslow Jr., who would likely have become a dominant player if not for his motorcycle accident. Although many are projecting that teams like the Ravens and Jets will be interested in him, a number of NFL people I've spoken with recently believe he will be selected in the top 12, because he is a rare talent who could be better than Jimmy Graham.

At 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, Ebron fits the physical mold of the dynamic receiving tight end that NFL teams are drooling over. Not your classic in-line tight end, he lined up in a variety of spots, including in-line, out in the slot and as a motion H-back in the seven games I evaluated. Once off the ball, he accelerates to full speed quickly and does an excellent job of maintaining his route stem to disguise the route until the break point. He sells fakes well before making a cut, which allows him to consistently get the defender to turn his hips the wrong way, and then he bursts out of the cut to gain separation.

Not only able to get separation through sharp route running, Ebron possesses top-end playing speed and can run by defenders on seam and post routes. There are many athletic tight ends playing college football, but few show the courage and fearlessness to catch passes in traffic. It is interesting that for a player who doesn't always maintain concentration on the field, he does consistently catch passes in traffic, take hard hits after the catch and hold onto the ball.

For a player with natural hands who has shown the ability to make spectacular catches on off-target throws with surprising ease, he drops more passes than a player with his talent should. In the seven games I evaluated, he had 44 passes thrown his direction that he was able to get both hands on, but caught only 35. This is good for 79.5 percent, which is well below average for an elite player. He consistently displayed a bad habit of taking his eyes off the ball to look up the field before securing the ball and tucking it away, which led to him dropping passes that were easy to catch.

When he did secure the ball, he was a dominant runner after the catch. Quick getting started up the field, he has a burst to get away from the initial tackler and runs with great pad level, which enables him to run easily run through arm/grab tackles to gain yards after contact. He has the rare combination of explosiveness, playing strength, balance and aggressiveness running with the ball to make game changing plays running after the catch.

Although his blocking ability isn't what will draw teams to Ebron, the truth is that he can be a punishing blocker when he wants to. His level of success as a blocker, both from an in-line alignment or out in space, is completely dependent on his effort and technique. When he keeps his knees bent, stays over his feet and gets after the block aggressively, he consistently gets movement on the block and eliminates his man from the play. However, for a player with his talent he definitely will get high and give less than a stellar effort too often, which allows his man to make/disrupt plays.

According to NFL people I have spoken to, Ebron has never been in any trouble and has no character issues that will hinder his draft stock. In today's NFL where tight ends can not only catch many passes but can also be the catalyst for opening up the entire offense, Ebron deserves to be a top-10 draft pick. I am always concerned about tight ends and receivers who drop more than 20 percent of the passes they have a chance to catch, because most players do not improve their hands in the NFL. However, I would be willing to gamble on Ebron because he is such a rare physical specimen and seems to thrive on competition, which could be enough to get him to maintain his focus better so that he does not drop easy passes as often. If he stays healthy, I believe he will quickly become one of the top three tight ends in the NFL, regularly catching 70 passes a season and opening up his team's offense.

* * *

Russ Lande writes about college scouting and the NFL draft for Sports on Earth. He is GM jr. scouting and college scouting director for the CFL's Montreal Alouettes and the Big Ten Network. He is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and former scouting administrator for the St. Louis Rams. You can follow him@RUSSLANDE.

Edited by SouthernJet
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