Lizard King Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There are studies from NCAA as well. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No. Yes. And there was another one on the NFL levels by some advanced stats guy (forgot his name, but he started writing for the NYT). You can deny it all you want. Doesn't make it false. Four-down football > 3 and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 True, but you also don't treat compensatory picks like they're trash like Tannenbaum did. Idzik seems adept at finding a happy medium there with his approach. Happy medium? Last year he seemed borderline obsessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yes. And there was another one on the NFL levels by some advanced stats guy (forgot his name, but he started writing for the NYT). You can deny it all you want. Doesn't make it false. Four-down football > 3 and out Then link it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Then link it. http://www.policymic.com/articles/75949/should-football-teams-go-for-it-on-4th-down-this-chart-tells-you Now STFU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 http://www.businessinsider.com/why-you-should-never-punt-2013-11 http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf Flaming piles of crap, but okay. I remember the discussion when everybody was bashing Rex for not having a punt returner. IIRC, this guy does not punt or return punts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Happy medium? Last year he seemed borderline obsessed. Well, that was perhaps because he was short on cap dollars last offseason and wanted picks. This offseason, he has a bounty of picks AND cap dollars. So it became less of a priority? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 http://www.policymic.com/articles/75949/should-football-teams-go-for-it-on-4th-down-this-chart-tells-you Now STFU You do realize that nearly half of that chart still says "Punt" Don't yoU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 http://www.policymic.com/articles/75949/should-football-teams-go-for-it-on-4th-down-this-chart-tells-you Now STFU Lol the NY Times 4th down bot. OKAY..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well, that was perhaps because he was short on cap dollars and wanted picks. This offseason, he has a bounty of picks AND cap dollars. So it became less of a priority? Actually, I think the way to maximize the picks is to try to do it in waves where some years you get and some years you ignore them. They don't take your picks away, so you sign a sh*tload of guys and it does not matter. Other years when you are a "have" you can wait it out and only sign guys that were cut. I don't think it's an unusual strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You do realize that nearly half of that chart still says "Punt" Don't yoU? darn, i'm sure rex would prefer to have an 8th CB on the active roster rather than a punter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lol the NY Times 4th down bot. OKAY..... You obviously didn't even read the first paragraph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Actually, I think the way to maximize the picks is to try to do it in waves where some years you get and some years you ignore them. They don't take your picks away, so you sign a sh*tload of guys and it does not matter. Other years when you are a "have" you can wait it out and only sign guys that were cut. I don't think it's an unusual strategy. Nice. Sort of an "every other year, go hard in free agency" approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You obviously didn't even read the first paragraph... 1st paragraph: Have you been waiting for definitive proof that coaches in the National Football League are a bunch of wussies? Well, the New York Times has your answer: meet the NYT 4th Down Bot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You do realize that nearly half of that chart still says "Punt" Don't yoU? When did I ever say to NEVER punt it? But how often will you have a 4th and 15? especially if you're smart and you run it (rather than getting 0 yards 40% of the time by passing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1st paragraph: Have you been waiting for definitive proof that coaches in the National Football League are a bunch of wussies? Well, the New York Times has your answer: meet the NYT 4th Down Bot. Okay, keep reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1st paragraph: Have you been waiting for definitive proof that coaches in the National Football League are a bunch of wussies? Well, the New York Times has your answer: meet the NYT 4th Down Bot. and also: "Obviously, the best strategy varies, depending on a team's strengths and weaknesses. But the overall pattern seems clear: coaches are far too conservative." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ever heard of this? http://www.advancednflstats.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Okay, keep reading. So teams usually punt 95% of the time and the article says you should only punt 80% of the time. Compelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So teams usually punt 95% of the time and the article says you should only punt 80% of the time. Compelling. 80%? Again, did you even read either article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Soooo...how about that Eric Decker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious89x Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Soooo...how about that Eric Decker? He's so damn hot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENBEAN Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 In MOST 4th down situations, the increased scoring chance by converting are greater than the increased chances of the other team scoring if you fail. Lots of studies have been done on it. The numbers don't lie. Play four-down football. Don't forget to include that little thing called the field and which part of it you're on. I find it hard to believe your stat holds up anywhere in our own territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 80%? Again, did you even read either article? WTF does this have to do with Eric Decker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 WTF does this have to do with Eric Decker? 4th down bot thinks we overpaid, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 He's so damn hot right now. I bet he works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Don't forget to include that little thing called the field and which part of it you're on. I find it hard to believe your stat holds up anywhere in our own territory. I did include that in a later post. There are lots of charts out there. Here's another: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Soooo...how about that Eric Decker? Loved him in "Squirt." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 When did I ever say to NEVER punt it? But how often will you have a 4th and 15? especially if you're smart and you run it (rather than getting 0 yards 40% of the time by passing). Do you think the NYTbot advocates running so that you get in 4th and less than 10 all the time? Don't you think that would skew that statistics and require additional analysis? BTW, the NYTbot advocates punting in any situation over 4th and 10 and more often than going for it on anything over 4th and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 He's so damn hot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious89x Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I did include that in a later post. There are lots of charts out there. Here's another: Interesting I made my own graph to better illustrate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Do you think the NYTbot advocates running so that you get in 4th and less than 10 all the time? Don't you think that would skew that statistics and require additional analysis? BTW, the NYTbot advocates punting in any situation over 4th and 10 and more often than going for it on anything over 4th and 5. You shouldn't even be in a 4th and 6+ without penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TehFalcon63 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Interesting I made my own graph to better illustrate You're a Miscer, we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Vic never, ever disappoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Remember that time the Pack ****ed up and let Favre go to the Vikings and got nothing in return? Harrison was better. James Jones? Yay us. Yeah, but everyone knows Ted Thompson is the second worst GM in football, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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