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What Must Happen For Jets to Make a Deep Playoff Run


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It's April, and I'm waiting to go out and get some wings and beer with the wife, and bored.

 

I'm always a sunshiner until the season starts, so I thought I'd put together what must happen for the Jets to be an impact team this year.

 

Lets start with what figures to be the strength of the Jets team..

 

 

Defense

 

CB's

 

Miliner must stay healthy and play for 16 games the way he played the last four in 2013.  Kid has a lot of talent, and I think this is very possible.  Patterson has to play, as he did for a while last year, at the top of his talent.  Don't think Patterson is  a great player but can be a  a very capable #2 CB.  Wilson is a very solid slot guy 

 

If Milner stays healthy think the Jets will solid at CB.  There is also the possibility that Patrick can make a step forward, along with an early draft pick have solid depth.

 

S

 

Don't think the Jets are in as desperate shape at safety  as we think.

 

Landry by no means is a star, but I thought he was solid last year.  Allen was, IMO, starting to come on last season and looked like a pretty good player until Ed Reed showed up.  Reed could also show up again in the summer.  Bit of help in the drat and this will at least be an acceptable unit.

 

DL

 

This of course is the strength of the team.  One of the elite DL's in the league.  Young and figures to improve even more this year,

 

LB's

 

Davis has shown himself to be a tough quick young LB'er.  With another year under his belt, think he is going to be an excellent player.  Harris is certainly overpaid, but he is still one of the better inside guys.  Very good inside tandem.

 

The Pace resigning was an excellent move.  He is a very solid vet, who can finish off sacks when the QB is flushed by the DL.  

 

This brings us to two very important players.   Barnes and Coples.  The one thing the Jets have been lacking to make this a dominating defense is a consistent pass rush.

 

Before his injury last year Barnes looked very good.   Lots of pressure and 2 sacks in 5 games in a limited role.  If he can return to that level, if will be a major aid to the Jets.  He is only 29 and I think/hope he will be a major contributor.   

 

Coples is the wild card.  In his first two seasons he has started off slow, and finished off with a lot of hope.  He has had reasons for the slow starts, injuries, a rookie, new position, ect.

 

After being invisible in the first half of the season finished with 4.5 sacks and at times looked brilliant.  He was responsible for a great deal of Pace's sacks as he chased QB's right into Pace, who as a smart vet held his ground and finished the play off. 

 

With this being his second year as a pass rushing LB'er  Coples can be a dominating force on this defense behind a tremendous DL who all have to be accounted for.

 

If Pace and Barnes can deliver the goods, and I think they can, this defense could be the best in the league.

 

IMO of course

 

 

 

Offense.    The O was horrible last year, and it is a miracle, and a tribute to Rex  that the team was 8-8.  Think it has a very good chance to be much improved.   Perhaps even very good.

 

QB

 

Of course QB is the heart and soul of any teams O.   Smith was awful last year.  Even with the depleted talent around him, he was still the main reason the Jets offense was so horrible.

 

He has to be better this season..........Doesn't he?

 

He certainly has the skills.  Strong arm.  Can make plays with his feet.  Problem is he doesn't like to take the ball down and run.  He consistently made bad decisions and threw inaccurate balls when he should have just run.  

 

In the final month of the season he played better.  Not so much with his strong arm, but it seemed like the CS forced him to take off with it.  If he is going to make a quantum leap as a QB in his second season IMO this is what he has to continue to do.  If he can get his #'s on a short passing game to around 2-1 TD to picks, and around 60%, occasionally throwing the bomb upfield to keep DB's out of the box.  He has the arm to do it, but he's got to increase his accuracy.   This has the opportunity to be a much improved offense.  Even a very good offense.

 

If he can't do it IMO the Geno Smith experiment will be over, and enter Vick.  Not a big Vick fan but he is an experienced vet, and the Jets can win with him.  Even win in the playoffs.   Of course everyone is hoping that Smith wins the job walking away.  And he has the physical skills to do it.   Will it happen?  We'll see

 

WR

 

Besides Smith, this is another reason the O was so putrid last year.  The Jets are well on their way to turning this around.

 

The addition of Decker is a major step in the right direction.  He's not an elite, game changing WR, but he is an excellent #2.

 

Kerley is an excellent slot guy who can make good catches, and get yards after the catch.  Nelson IMO is going to be a very nice player.  Not a star but a guy who will make some big catches in big spots.

 

The Jets must add a legit #1 guy.  Somebody with speed, who can keep the S off the line of scrimmage.  The Jets are very fortunate that this is a tremendous draft for WR's.  They just have to get the right player.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets take 2 WR's in the first 4 rounds.  If they hit on one of them this will be a much improved unit.

 

I know a lot of people have given up on Stephen Hill.  I haven't.  everyone keeps talking about all the balls he dropped last year.  He dropped one.  

 

He started last season looking like he was going to be much improved.  Can't remember what game it was, but early in the season he made a great catch on the sideline, took a monster hit, hung onto the ball, and made and important first down.  Bad news for Hill and the Jets was he injured his ribs, and received a concussion on the play.  Seemed to be playing hurt the rest of the season.

 

Hills main problem is getting off the LOS clean.  He has the size and speed, just doesn't have the technique down yet.  From what I have read about him he is a good kid and a hard worker.

 

 Technique is something that can be learned.   He is only 22.   Most guys are just coming into the league at 22.  Think he is going to have a breakout season, and be a major contributor to the Jets O this year.  If he does, we will see a whole new element to the Jets passing game.

 

TE

 

Not really much to say here.  Cumberland is a good, but not spectacular TE.  Glad he's back solid player.

 

Sudfeld is a complete unknown.  Showed some major flashes in Pats camp last year, great size.  We'll see what he's got in camp this year.  Jets will add a TE in the first 4 rounds of the draft

 

RB

 

Jets look to be very solid in the running game.  Ivory was a great pick up.  Tremendous power, ability to burst outside, and break tackles for the big play.  His problem is his running style, which is often right over players, which leads to injuries when over used.  Fortunately for the Jets they have a very effective, if not spectacular RB to share his carries in Powell, who is often over looked by fans.  He had a 4.0 average and 36 catches.  He is also a very good blocker.  Good work horse type player who can take the pressure off Ivory.  Excellent 1-2 punch IMO.  What was missing last season was the big play RB.  The Jets so far seem to be still going with Goodson, If he avoids jail, and I think he will.   Goodson showed flashes of being the big play guy in the 2 games he played in last year.  8.7 ave.  Of course he's off a knee injury besides his legal problems.  We'll see what the future hold for Goodson in the coming months.  Suspect the Jets will take a RB who can catch in the mid rounds.  All in All think the Jets are very well set at RB

 

OL

 

Of course the Jets have Ferguson, and Mangold as their rocks.  Both of their play was off last season, but IMO it was due to the presence of Winters between them.  Winters is a key player, and he has to improve this season if the Jets are to be successful.   He was awful at times last year.  it seemed to me it wasn't so much his technique that was bad, but rather his strength.  He was just getting blown up, play after play.  Fortunately this is something that can be fixed if he is a hard worker.  Hopefully he is sleeping in the weight room, and doing orangutan HGH in the offseason.

 

I wish the Jets had resigned Howard, I think he had more upside, but for now Giacomini seems to be at least a lateral move.  Think he can be very good if he can stop committing penalties.  Idzik is familiar with him so I am going to trust that he is a good player.  Colon has to stay healthy and the Jets will have a very solid OL.  Depth hopefully will be added in the draft.

 

I don't see why some people are thinking the Jets will take a step back this year

 

 

I think with some good breaks, and the right selection of players in the draft the Jets have an excellent chance of making the play offs, and making some noise when they get there.   

 

 

 

 

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For the Jets to make a deep playoff run they would have to of signed Jackson wout him becoming a headache, sign Chris Johnson who would have to still have fuel left in the tank, have someone like Antjony Barr fall into their lap at 18 In which he becomes the real deal, strike gold at CB in the second and then have the lightbulb turned on for Geno.

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I would be very shocked if they drafted two wrs in the first 4 rounds. We're gonna take one, if geno can't make anything happen with that then that's a QB issue. We don't need two more receivers and a receiving TE to make our offense better. 

What's going to happen is we're going to draft more Defense than Offense and everyone in our fan base will be all up in arms bashing Idzik until we win 10 games this season, then he'll be a "great GM" 

 

All we need is a smart quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over, makes good decisions and can keep leads when we have them. If geno can be that guy, then we're in good hands, if not, then marcus mariota it is.

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The addition of Decker is a major step in the right direction.  He's not an elite, game changing WR, but he is an excellent #2.

 

You are just repeating what you have seen written without thinking about it. "#1 WR" and "elite, game changing" are not synonyms. The 32 best WRs in the league--which Decker is--are "#1 WR" material. There are like 6 guys who are "elite, game changing." There are really three categories at the top, not two: (1) Elite (2) #1 WR and (3) #2 WR

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I know a lot of people have given up on Stephen Hill.  I haven't.  everyone keeps talking about all the balls he dropped last year.  He dropped one.  

 

He started last season looking like he was going to be much improved.  Can't remember what game it was, but early in the season he made a great catch on the sideline, took a monster hit, hung onto the ball, and made and important first down.  Bad news for Hill and the Jets was he injured his ribs, and received a concussion on the play.  Seemed to be playing hurt the rest of the season.

 

 

I really, really want to believe in Hill.  This season is his last chance to be a starter for us though.  He may not even get the opportunity to compete for the starting role if we bring in a first rounder wr

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I would be very shocked if they drafted two wrs in the first 4 rounds. We're gonna take one, if geno can't make anything happen with that then that's a QB issue. We don't need two more receivers and a receiving TE to make our offense better. 

What's going to happen is we're going to draft more Defense than Offense and everyone in our fan base will be all up in arms bashing Idzik until we win 10 games this season, then he'll be a "great GM" 

 

All we need is a smart quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over, makes good decisions and can keep leads when we have them. If geno can be that guy, then we're in good hands, if not, then marcus mariota it is.

 

 

I'm so tired of that ******* idiotic team philosophy. Teams need balance and the ability to score. Playing not to make mistakes on offense is a loser mentality,

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Deep Playoff run means

 

1) Jets D is top 5

 

2) Jets D solidified their pass D (SECONDARY IS FIXED)

 

3) Jets found 1-3 solid starters in the Draft (CB, WR and maybe TE?)

 

4) QB has 58-60+% completion rate with a 2/3-1 TD to TO ratio

 

That is what I think needs to happen to have a deep playoff run.

 

LL

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I'm so tired of that ******* idiotic team philosophy. Teams need balance and the ability to score. Playing not to make mistakes on offense is a loser mentality,

Yes you took that perfectly in context. I didn't mean for the smart quarterback to score, of course not. I meant just don't throw interceptions and we'll win the superbowl. Yes. Good going on your part. 

 

On a non-facetious note, obviously. But when your quarterback throws 12 tds and 21 picks, clearly one of the main things you want him to improve on is his turnovers. I really have no idea what your referring to as the ******* idiotic team philosophy. Playing smart football is an idiotic philosophy? 

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Need to win at least 4 games on the road to make playoffs

 

Road schedule: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Kansas City, San Diego, Green Bay, Minnesota, Tennessee

 

How many of those games can we win? I'd say Miami, Tennessee, possibly Buffalo. Can't win on the road without good QB play. Realistically, its looking like another 8-8 season

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Yes you took that perfectly in context. I didn't mean for the smart quarterback to score, of course not. I meant just don't throw interceptions and we'll win the superbowl. Yes. Good going on your part. 

 

On a non-facetious note, obviously. But when your quarterback throws 12 tds and 21 picks, clearly one of the main things you want him to improve on is his turnovers. I really have no idea what your referring to as the ******* idiotic team philosophy. Playing smart football is an idiotic philosophy? 

 

There's a difference between smart football like Seattle plays and hyper conservative make no mistakes at all costs football like Rex prefers. He does it every year, poking his nose into the offensive scheme and making them play so conservative it puts the team in terrible positions and actually increases turnovers. That is idiotic football and unfortunately it is what Rex wants. He is so focused on winning with "his" defense that all he cares about is not making mistakes on offense. That is what I mean.

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There's a difference between smart football like Seattle plays and hyper conservative make no mistakes at all costs football like Rex prefers. He does it every year, poking his nose into the offensive scheme and making them play so conservative it puts the team in terrible positions and actually increases turnovers. That is idiotic football and unfortunately it is what Rex wants. He is so focused on winning with "his" defense that all he cares about is not making mistakes on offense. That is what I mean.

That has nothing to do with what I said. We have the tools for a good offense, now we need a smart quarterback is what I was saying.

 

To combat what you are getting at-

Hyper conservative is a little much to describe our run-first offense. Especially this past year. Also, I'd like to see the stats that prove your opinion that playing conservative actually increases turnovers. We haven't had an offense in two years, what'd you want Sanchez and Geno to throw more? To who?

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the best predictor of success is passer rating differential.  It correctly pointed to seattle as the SB favorite to win

 

so the jets need to improve their own passers rating while keeping a lid on the other guy

 

unfortunately, it also points to the pats* as the AFC favorite

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That has nothing to do with what I said. We have the tools for a good offense, now we need a smart quarterback is what I was saying.

 

To combat what you are getting at-

Hyper conservative is a little much to describe our run-first offense. Especially this past year. Also, I'd like to see the stats that prove your opinion that playing conservative actually increases turnovers. We haven't had an offense in two years, what'd you want Sanchez and Geno to throw more? To who?

 

It is not the frequency of passing it is when. Rex does it ever year. After a couple losses, or especially when we play a team like Baltimore or NE that he fears he goes super defensive and runs almost every first and second down. You should throw on first down around 50% or more on first down in any offense to be effective.

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It is not the frequency of passing it is when. Rex does it ever year. After a couple losses, or especially when we play a team like Baltimore or NE that he fears he goes super defensive and runs almost every first and second down. You should throw on first down around 50% or more on first down in any offense to be effective.

 

I bet if you go to ESPN and look at the game logs, they throw it about 50% of the time

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Best case scenario:

 

- Geno wins the job in camp, becomes more efficient after spending an offseason with the new WRs

- CJ finds a new lease of life at the Jets and rushes for over 1300 yards, Ivory goes for 700+ and the Jets finish top 5 in rushing

- Milliner carries on from where he left off at the end of 2013

- offense consistently scores 21-24 a game and defense finishes top 10

- Jets win 4/5 of their road games (@ buf, mia, ten, min/KC)  to finish 10-6

 

Worse case scenario:

 

- QB controversy starts early. Geno continues to go through NFL growing pains and has a few nightmare games that destroy his confidence. Gets replaced by Vick, after which Vick gets injured. QB play remains inconsistent

- CJ occasionally flashes playmaking ability but gets frustrated more often than not. He refuses to take responsibility and goes back to being the locker room cancer he became in Tennessee. Ivory gets injured...powell returns to starting role.

- Milliner and secondary struggles, becomes an easy target for opposition coaches.

- offense becomes turnover prone and frequently wastes field position. Jets struggle to score TDs.

- Jets win just 1/2 road games and are blown out on a few road trips by superior offenses. Team finishes a disappointing 7-9/6-10 record.

 

Which is more likely?

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