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Draft Report article on Cumberland


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http://thedraftreport.com/tdr-metrics-next-breakout-tight-end/

 

TDR METRICS: THE NEXT BREAKOUT TIGHT END

As a special for TDR, our friends at The NFL Advisory (@TheNFLAdvisory) will take a look at metrics that could tell us who the next breakout players are in the NFL.  In this first installment, they give us a tight end to look out for.

Let’s start with some numbers.

Combine Measurements and Testing (Pro Day if no Combine):

Player A: 6’5, 246 lbs. 4.64 40 yard dash, 16 bench reps, 35.5″ vertical jump, 9’03″ broad jump, 4.31 20 yard shuttle, 6.96 3 cone drill.

Player B: 6’4, 249 lbs. 4.45 40 yard dash, 20 bench reps, 35.5″ vertical jump, 9’10″ broad jump, 4.39 20 yard shuttle, 6.89 3 cone drill.

Player C: 6’4, 250 lbs. 4.60 40 yard dash, 24 bench reps, 32″ vertical jump, 10″ broad jump (no short area testing…yet).

As you can see from the raw numbers, Player B is clearly the fastest of the group (and by a significant margin).  A minimum of 0.15 seconds on both players; meaning Player A and Player C are both fast for tight ends, but Player B has truly elite speed for the position.  Player B is also a little stronger than Player A, while Player C is a little stronger than Player B, and noticeably stronger than Player A.

Both Player A and B can sky for a jump ball with identical 35.5″ verticals.  Player C has less of an advantage against a smaller corner, as his 32″ vertical would put him at the same jump ball height as a 6-foot corner with a 37″ vertical (a common number for starting NFL corners).  Player A and B still have 3-plus inches of advantage in the air, especially when you consider a tight end that lines up inline will likely be covered by a LB or a S, meaning a likely less explosive vertical.

Players B and C have very close broad jumps, showing elite explosive lower body strength.  Player A is almost a foot behind them, showing that he isn’t as strong in the lower body and coupled with the worst bench reps, it gives him the worst blocking potential of the group.  Player B has the potential by the numbers to be a very good blocker, while Player C could be the best blocker of the group, mixing the most weight with the most strength (24 bench reps).

We only have short-area testing for Player A and Player B.  Both have strong sub-seven-second three-cone drills; Player B is a step or two quicker at changing direction than Player A, with a time almost a tenth of a second faster.  Player A does have faster short shuttle time by almost a tenth of a second though, which means he is a little quicker at gathering and moving his weight from full speed to stop and then full speed again (this shows good quickness, but in terms of in game application — this test has less meaning for me than the three-cone which shows ability to bend and change direction while building to and hopefully maintaining full speed).

In sum, we clearly have 3 very athletic tight ends here. Let’s take a look at their stats.

2014 Season Stats (*=college):

Tight End A: 65 catches, 788 yards, 12 TDs. Started 14 games. Age for 2014 season: 26.

Tight End B: 26 catches, 398 yards, 4 TDs. “Started” 12 games, very limited role.  Age for 2014 season: 27.

Tight End C*: 62 catches, 973 yards, 3 TDs. Started 13 games. Age for 2014 season: 21.

We’ve just learned that Player C is a college prospect for the 2014 draft, so perhaps by his stats you can figure out who it is.  Clearly both Player A and Player C are featured weapons in their passing attack.  For some reason, Player B was only used a limited role last year.  However, Player B has been a practice squad player for his first 2 years, and then made the jump to the active roster for the last 2 seasons as a part-time player.  The good news is that it seems that his team is willing to give him a chance to really break out this upcoming season.

These numbers need some comparison so we can really see how athletic these guys are.

graham1-215x300.jpg

For a benchmark, let’s take a look at these numbers again against Jimmy Graham’s:

Graham: 6’6, 260 lbs. 4.53 40 yard dash, 15 bench reps, 38.5″ vertical jump, 10″ broad jump, 4.45 short shuttle, 6.90 3 cone drill.

Player A: 6’5, 246 lbs. 4.64 40 yard dash, 16 bench reps, 35.5″ vertical jump, 9’03″ broad jump, 4.31 20 yard shuttle, 6.96 3 cone drill.

Player B: 6’4, 249 lbs. 4.45 40 yard dash, 20 bench reps, 35.5″ vertical jump, 9’10″ broad jump, 4.39 20 yard shuttle, 6.89 3 cone drill.

Player C: 6’4, 250 lbs. 4.60 40 yard dash, 24 bench reps, 32″ vertical jump, 10″ broad jump (no short area testing…yet).

The only member in the group faster than Graham is Player B, while all are stronger than Jimmy (B and C with some noticeable added strength).  Graham jumps the highest of them all, and that combined with his 6’6” height shows just why he is so dominant in the red zone on jump balls. Players A and B can sky almost as high as Graham though (only Player C has a noticeable lesser mark in the vert).  Graham and Player C have identical broad jumps, with Player B basically in their group at 2 inches less.  Ignoring Player C, who doesn’t have short area testing numbers yet, the only player quicker than Graham is Player B, by one hundredth of a second.  So basically, equal quickness while changing direction, while also being able to move his weight around better with a slightly faster shuttle time.  Player A has a much faster shuttle time, as he can move his weight (14 pounds less) around better than Graham can, while he isn’t as quick.

ebron1-251x300.jpeg

Partial reveal: Player A is Pro Bowler Julius Thomas.  Player C is potential Top 10 pick Eric Ebron (North Carolina).

Jimmy Graham: 6’6, 260 lbs. 4.53 40 yard dash, 15 bench reps, 38.5″ vertical jump, 10″ broad jump, 4.45 short shuttle, 6.90 3 cone drill.

Julius Thomas: 6’5, 246 lbs. 4.64 40 yard dash, 16 bench reps, 35.5″ vertical jump, 9’03″ broad jump, 4.31 20 yard shuttle, 6.96 3 cone drill.

Tight End B: 6’4, 249 lbs. 4.45 40 yard dash, 20 bench reps, 35.5″ vertical jump, 9’10″ broad jump, 4.39 20 yard shuttle, 6.89 3 cone drill.

Eric Ebron: 6’4, 250 lbs. 4.60 40 yard dash, 24 bench reps, 32″ vertical jump, 10″ broad jump (no short area testing…yet).

So who is this mystery tight end that is faster, quicker, and stronger than Graham?  Who has almost identical size to Julius Thomas but is two tenths of a second faster with equal jumping ability but a more explosive lower half?  And for a tight end as hyped up as Ebron has been this offseason (with some scouts saying he will be better than Jimmy because of his athletic ability) Player B is bigger, faster, and more explosive in vertical jump so that he would be better for red zone jump balls?

cumberland-249x300.jpg

Without further ado, I presentPlayer B: the New York Jets’ Jeff Cumberland.

Cumberland was a wide receiver at Illinois who has been converted successfully to tight end, but he hasn’t been featured as a tight end until now.  Cumberland joined the Jets when they had first-round pickDustin Keller.  With Keller gone and Kellen Winslow injured as well, Cumberland got more of a chance to play.  He flashed enough that the Jets just gave him a three-year, $5.7 million contract, meaning it is possible the Jets just locked in a possible Julius Thomas who can break out with Vick at QB for $2 million a year for 3 years.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000252741/Jeff-Cumberland-34-yard-touchdown-catch

This clip looks like SS Bernard Pollard of the Titans drops into the box to guard Cumberland, who lines up as an inline TE on the right.  Cumberland separates quite easily on a delayed inside slant from Pollard (#31), then runs past FS Michael Griffin (#33) in the open field after giving him a little stiff arm/get-off-me arm swipe and discarding him as he runs by him at the 13 yard line before scoring.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000258756/Cumberland-20-yard-touchdown-reception

In the same game, Cumberland grabs back shoulder TD hands-catch, beating LB Joplu Bartu.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000258764/Cumberland-47-yard-gain

Speed to get open past the LB, easy mover in the open field to position himself to run right by SS William Moore for the big play.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013121510/2013/REG15/jets@panthers

There are two Cumberland highlights here: one 30-plus-yard gain where he beats Luke Kuechly in short coverage then outruns him for the big gain.  Then he scores from 8 yards out as Kuechly (Defensive Player of the Year) can’t close quick enough.

Cumberland also flashed in 2012 (27-yard TD strike over a safety from Sanchez):

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap1000000078642/Sanchez-to-Cumberland-27-yd-TD

With Michael Vick in town, Cumberland may finally be ready to have a full breakout in the same way that Julius Thomas had the perfect combination of great QB play, great athleticism and maturity (was ready to be a full time TE).  Cumberland now has those three things if Vick stays healthy, as Eric Decker and either or Brandin Cooks (Oregon State) or Odell Beckham, Jr.(LSU) will draw safeties away from the clearly athletic move tight end.  I hope the Jets steer clear of tight ends early in the draft, and their statements about Cumberland make it seem like they think they have a gem on their hands.

Alge Crumper‘s best season with Vick in Atlanta came at about the same age as Cumberland is now (almost 800 yards, 8 TDs).  Seeing as Cumberland is much more athletic than Crumpler, it is possible that a full time featured role may have Cumberland breaking both marks or at least matching them.

 

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Do I get points for knowing Cumberland's 40 from memory? I knew he was an athletic freak, I actually worried about size with him since he converted from WR. Since I don't love the non-Grahams here, I'll just say that Cumberland is a nice little offensive weapOn that has be de-veloped under the outdated one who totally doesn't know offenses pass these days. Definitely has his uses, and if Geno breaks out I could see Cumberland being a prime beneficiary. Decker and hopefully a draft guy will hopefully force defenses to spread out a little....Lotta wishing and hoping here, but Geno will soon be seen as having got this.

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bill polian rated the jets re-signing of cumberland as a better signing than decker yet is was seen around here as cheap idzik not getting a new guy

 

 

I was happy to have him back, but would like the jets to grab another TE

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I remember posting the combine numbers a month or so ago after he signed and some were deeming him a JAG, and still am impressed by his athleticism.  While his speed still seems to be there, I'd be surprised if he could currently run a 4.45 after the achilles injury and being in the pros, but I doubt it dropped that much.

 

Combine his measurables with the fact that he was 2nd in DVOA and 8th in DYAR this past season, it's not hard to understand why the coaching staff has been so high on him since he was drafted.  He had a very nice five game stretch at the beginning of the season where he and Geno had a nice report, which competing teams pretty quickly realized and neutralized him.  I don't think it's too surprising that Geno's worst stretch of 5 games coincided with Cumberland being ineffective or hurt, as well as Kerley's absence.  I am actually quite excited to see what he can produce this year when he's not Geno's #1 or #2 option.

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