Is next year the year Idzik makes a splash?

[slats]

This was a discussion on the podcast tonight. I don't think Idzik does anything splash-like unless he's in the market for a QB. I think he's too conservative in nature, and too value driven. He needs to get the best of every deal, and it's hard to make deals with others when you're not very good at the give part of give and take.

With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.

He's also right on board with the ground and pound. Physicality is the key. Signed another veteran RB this year, and a big WR. Then went defense with two of his first three picks, with the third being the big TE. As much of a weapon Cooks might've potentially been, Pryor fits the team personality a lot better.

I think if he's in the market for a QB, he might be able to make a trade for the first pick of the draft - if only because he'll have weeks to negotiate it rather than ten minutes. But I think these last two years are what the future is going to bring. Value shopping in free agency, an attempt to collect comp picks, and then sitting tight and picking when it's his turn. When he has to spend money, he'll spend it to keep the guys he wants to keep.

 

Adding the JN Radio Podcast link:  http://www.jetnation.com/2014/05/14/new-york-jets-draft-recap-a-show-for-ny-jets-fans/

[Gastineau Lives]

This was a discussion on the podcast tonight. I don't think Idzik does anything splash-like unless he's in the market for a QB. I think he's too conservative in nature, and too value driven. He needs to get the best of every deal, and it's hard to make deals with others when you're not very good at the give part of give and take.

With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.

He's also right on board with the ground and pound. Physicality is the key. Signed another veteran RB this year, and a big WR. Then went defense with two of his first three picks, with the third being the big TE. As much of a weapon Cooks might've potentially been, Pryor fits the team personality a lot better.

I think if he's in the market for a QB, he might be able to make a trade for the first pick of the draft - if only because he'll have weeks to negotiate it rather than ten minutes. But I think these last two years are what the future is going to bring. Value shopping in free agency, an attempt to collect comp picks, and then sitting tight and picking when it's his turn. When he has to spend money, he'll spend it to keep the guys he wants to keep.

 

Idzik meet the cash floor. Floor, this is John Idzik.

[T0mShane]

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.

[slats]

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.

Yeah, I heard you say so, but I just don't believe it. I don't see him spending big in free agency. He's just too value concious, too concerned with getting the better of the deal.

[T0mShane]

Yeah, I heard you say so, but I just don't believe it. I don't see him spending big in free agency. He's just too value concious, too concerned with getting the better of the deal.

 

 

I disagree. I don't think he'll be frivolous, and he'll definitely cover his ass, but I think what we're witnessing is a GM flipping a roster and holding back cash to make the big strike(s) when it's time to compete for titles. I just don't think he believes that time is now.

[RutgersJetFan]

Probably not. Seems like the general rule for building and maintaining is to keep free agency at an arm's length and Idzik subscribes to that philosophy. If he was going to bend on that he would have already done it when Woody tried to get him to.

 

I'm sure there will be another Decker-esque addition or two next year but I don't think it's going to go much further than that. If we were going to be in the habit of paying guys we already would have started down that road with Howard and DRC. The nice part about that is it doesn't make it very stressful for when it comes time to resign Wilkerson and Harrison, and eventually Richardson.

[T0mShane]

The acid test player was Desean Jackson, imo, because he's young and an elite talent that wouldn't break the bank, so you guys could be correct, but I do think the big buys are coming next year. I don't see how he casn hope to compete for titles drafting safeties and DEs and signing #2 receivers.

[RutgersJetFan]

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.

 

And while you're at it look at Seattle's as well. This is the school of thought we're dealing with here. There aren't any Jets-2008 offseasons. For the most part it's a signing or two along the away and your cap space goes to when your core players need extensions; which is essentially how that space is probably going to get used. If you think Idzik is setting the franchise up for a future scenario where he'll attack you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment. The philosophy is to always make sure you have an exit strategy every year. You can't maintain that by maxing out.

[Gastineau Lives]

And while you're at it look at Seattle's as well. This is the school of thought we're dealing with here. There aren't any Jets-2008 offseasons. For the most part it's a signing or two along the away and your cap space goes to when your core players need extensions; which is essentially how that space is probably going to get used. If you think Idzik is setting the franchise up for a future scenario where he'll attack you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment. The philosophy is to always make sure you have an exit strategy every year. You can't maintain that by maxing out.

 

There's a lot of room between where the Jets are now and maxing out. Minimuming out is still somewhere up the ladder at this point.

[sourceworx]

I disagree. I don't think he'll be frivolous, and he'll definitely cover his ass, but I think what we're witnessing is a GM flipping a roster and holding back cash to make the big strike(s) when it's time to compete for titles. I just don't think he believes that time is now.

 

 

I completely agree.  Idzik inherited a team that lacked both top-tier talent and there was no depth, whatsoever.  The accumulation of draft picks shows that he's building up the bottom of the roster while the (hopeful) solution at QB develops.  If Geno continues to build off of his play at the end of last year, I'd expect to see bigger moves next offseason. 

[RutgersJetFan]

There's a lot of room between where the Jets are now and maxing out. Minimuming out is still somewhere up the ladder at this point.

 

Of course there is. There will be moves, but nothing along the lines of what's being inquired upon. This is what we hired.

[T0mShane]

And while you're at it look at Seattle's as well. This is the school of thought we're dealing with here. There aren't any Jets-2008 offseasons. For the most part it's a signing or two along the away and your cap space goes to when your core players need extensions; which is essentially how that space is probably going to get used. If you think Idzik is setting the franchise up for a future scenario where he'll attack you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment. The philosophy is to always make sure you have an exit strategy every year. You can't maintain that by maxing out.

 

 

I think, with $30-$40 mil, he can be aggressive without maxing out. You can go after Roddy White or Crabtree, plus an edge rusher, and still leave yourself enough cash to cover that ass.

[Jets80]

I think that John Idzik's plan will stay status quo.  I'm sure that you'll continue to see him be a tough negotiator and sign players at positions of need under his circumstances while continuing to build this team through the draft.  Even if (hypothetically) the team had $100M in cap space, you won't see Idzik make any irrational decisions.  I'm sure he's going to stick to his plan.

[slats]

The acid test player was Desean Jackson, imo, because he's young and an elite talent that wouldn't break the bank, so you guys could be correct, but I do think the big buys are coming next year. I don't see how he casn hope to compete for titles drafting safeties and DEs and signing #2 receivers.

I think he likes drafting DEs and Safeties, and will continue to lean towards players less likely to bust in the first round, especially. QBs and WRs have a high bust rate. I think he shares Rex's defense first mentality, too, although it was nice to see him address the passing game directly this offseason. Number one receivers and franchise QBs don't hit free agency all that often, either. Not as often as lesser players getting paid as if they were that good. He would have to take that risk in the draft, and he hasn't shown that he has the stomach for that, yet. And if the Jets hover around 8-8 again, such a risk would involve trading picks, which is something else he hasn't been able to do.

[stoicsentry]

Why are Wilkerson's and Kerley's names brought up so often as if we're on this financial cliff and Idzik has to go all hands on deck to try and extend them? This time next year, we could afford to pay 3 Wilkerson's without batting an eye.

[RutgersJetFan]

I think, with $30-$40 mil, he can be aggressive without maxing out. You can go after Roddy White or Crabtree, plus an edge rusher, and still leave yourself enough cash to cover that ass.

 

The degree of aggressiveness that you're speculating on is not how it works. Cap space isn't used simply to use it. Again, this is what we hired. A long-term starter (or two at best) per year through free agency/trades and continuously replenishing through the draft. That's what we're getting. He's not going to go all-in on Geno for a window because the philosophy demands never sacrificing the long for the short. Aggressive sustainability, if you will.

 

And Roddy White will be 33 next year. If that's your definition of going aggressive then you've gotten soft.

[T0mShane]

The degree of aggressiveness that you're speculating on is not how it works. Cap space isn't used simply to use it. Again, this is what we hired. A long-term starter (or two at best) per year through free agency/trades and continuously replenishing through the draft. That's what we're getting. He's not going to go all-in on Geno for a window because the philosophy demands never sacrificing the long for the short. Aggressive sustainability, if you will.

And Roddy White will be 33 next year. If that's your definition of going aggressive then you've gotten soft.

I wanted to say Dez, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.

[LionelRichie]

With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.

 

 

Great post Slats.    I think Idzik tries to capitalize on other teams making desperate moves in the draft.   If they aren't desperate he doesn't move, and it's tough to negotiate in a 5 minute window.     He needs to be careful because at some point the phone just stops ringing.  

 

Couple of q's for you:

 

1 - was Pryor still the pick if some combination of Beckham, Barr, Martin, Fuller were still available?  

 

2 - What is the plan if Geno isn't the man?  

[T0mShane]

I think he likes drafting DEs and Safeties, and will continue to lean towards players less likely to bust in the first round, especially. QBs and WRs have a high bust rate. I think he shares Rex's defense first mentality, too, although it was nice to see him address the passing game directly this offseason. Number one receivers and franchise QBs don't hit free agency all that often, either. Not as often as lesser players getting paid as if they were that good. He would have to take that risk in the draft, and he hasn't shown that he has the stomach for that, yet. And if the Jets hover around 8-8 again, such a risk would involve trading picks, which is something else he hasn't been able to do.

Agreed, but I think at some point he has to sh*t or get off the pot as far as going for a title goes. He's going to have to take his shot here, and soon. No way is he committed to a 5-year rebuild with a coach on a year-to-year deal.

[RutgersJetFan]

I wanted to say Dez, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.

 

Even if that's the case, what I'm trying to say is that's all we'd get. Don't think we have an offseason like 2008 coming up in 2015 or 2016, it's not happening.

[LionelRichie]

I think, with $30-$40 mil, he can be aggressive without maxing out. You can go after Roddy White or Crabtree, plus an edge rusher, and still leave yourself enough cash to cover that ass.

 

with the salary cap continuing to climb most teams can afford to re-sign their own players.    Idzik doesn't seem the type to "win" a bidding war so with the cap going up I don't see how he makes big moves without overpaying.  

[Matt39]

The QB class this year stunk. Hope the defense can mirror the Seahawks(a poor version at least) and run the football...if the Jets are going to win it's not going to be through the air behind some elite QB that doesnt exist.

[T0mShane]

Even if that's the case, what I'm trying to say is that's all we'd get. Don't think we have an offseason like 2008 coming up in 2015 or 2016, it's not happening.

Oh, no, me either. I'm just saying that he's eventually going to have to break away from the uber-conservative plan he's working with now as the team gets incrementally better. It's ok to pass on Desean when you suck, but it's another thing to do it if you're a solid 8-9 win level roster looking to jump up to 12-4.

[T0mShane]

with the salary cap continuing to climb most teams can afford to re-sign their own players. Idzik doesn't seem the type to "win" a bidding war so with the cap going up I don't see how he makes big moves without overpaying.

If he's going to win titles, he's going to have to overpay along the way. For instance, he supposedly got beat to Marqise Lee this year, and he lost out on Tavon Austin this year. If that keeps happening because he's trying to save a fourth round pick, he's going to end up having to overpay for a Percy Harvin down the line.

[RutgersJetFan]

Oh, no, me either. I'm just saying that he's eventually going to have to break away from the uber-conservative plan he's working with now as the team gets incrementally better. It's ok to pass on Desean when you suck, but it's another thing to do it if you're a solid 8-9 win level roster looking to jump up to 12-4.

 

Kelly cut Desean because he's a douchebag. We passed on Desean because he's a douchebag. Dan Snyder signed him because he's a douchebag and likes other douchebags. We'll probably keep passing on guys who are douchebags. Even if we're 11-5 next year, I'd bet a billion dollars that we don't sign any douchebags.

[T0mShane]

Kelly cut Desean because he's a douchebag. We passed on Desean because he's a douchebag. Dan Snyder signed him because he's a douchebag and likes other douchebags. We'll probably keep passing on guys who are douchebags. Even if we're 11-5 next year, I'd bet a billion dollars that we don't sign any douchebags.

As we know, the world is run by douchebags. Titles are won by douchebags.

[Sperm Edwards]

I meant to get into this on the podcast but it fell apart post-Courtney. Check out JetsCap and look at the 2015 roster as it stands right now--it's Wilkerson and Brick (Mangold is going to get cut), and the last two draft classes. Even Kerley is in trouble if Saunders can play a lick. Right now, they're tied to $92 mil in cap charges, and the cap is expected to be north of $138 next year. If Geno can play, Idzik is going to load up next year.

For the players up there now, I'm sure you can drop it below $90M when factoring in Cumberland, Goodson, and maybe Pace. Quite possible that Hill and his million-dollar salary are gone as well. But it's a game of roster spots as much as roster cap space. Saving Hill's $1M doesn't save $1M; the next lowest guy up (and his $500K) now count against the cap. Likewise if we already have our top 51 and then sign someone new, you can delete that 51st guy's $500K since it won't count anymore (which makes it seem like the new signing counts $500K less than he actually does). But one for one, cutting Hill will save $1M. If Nick Folk has a sudden and major off-year, which these kickers sometimes just have from out of nowhere, you can probably add in his nearly $3M as well.

However, keep in mind Jason doesn't have this year's draft picks' full cap #s in there, since they're all TBD so far.

Mangold is a tough call. It's an enormous savings, but I don't think he gets cut unless he really just sucks to the point where he's an obvious liability out there and we have a replacement lined up. A year later I do think Brick's a goner. I don't care how much the cap goes up; he's not a $14M left tackle, and he's not nearly the fan favorite that Mangold is/was.

[stoicsentry]

Kelly cut Desean because he's a douchebag. We passed on Desean because he's a douchebag. Dan Snyder signed him because he's a douchebag and likes other douchebags. We'll probably keep passing on guys who are douchebags. Even if we're 11-5 next year, I'd bet a billion dollars that we don't sign any douchebags.

 

[RutgersJetFan]

As we know, the world is run by douchebags. Titles are won by douchebags.

 

Douchebags **** up locker rooms. Again, you never sacrifice the short for the long. This is what we hired. No chance Idzik is going to say **** it when his entire philosophy is centered on calculating risk.

[RutgersJetFan]

For the players up there now, I'm sure you can drop it below $90M when factoring in Cumberland, Goodson, and maybe Pace. Quite possible that Hill and his million-dollar salary are gone as well. But it's a game of roster spots as much as roster cap space. Saving Hill's $1M doesn't save $1M; the next lowest guy up (and his $500K) now count against the cap. Likewise if we already have our top 51 and then sign someone new, you can delete that 51st guy's $500K since it won't count anymore (which makes it seem like the new signing counts $500K less than he actually does). But one for one, cutting Hill will save $1M. If Nick Folk has a sudden and major off-year, which these kickers sometimes just have from out of nowhere, you can probably add in his nearly $3M as well.

However, keep in mind Jason doesn't have this year's draft picks' full cap #s in there, since they're all TBD so far.

Mangold is a tough call. It's an enormous savings, but I don't think he gets cut unless he really just sucks to the point where he's an obvious liability out there and we have a replacement lined up. A year later I do think Brick's a goner. I don't care how much the cap goes up; he's not a $14M left tackle, and he's not nearly the fan favorite that Mangold is/was.

 

There's also the notion that the players we draft become good (crazy, but still). If that happens, it costs money to resign them. That space exists now for those years doesn't necessarily mean it will in the future just because Idzik won't pursue tons of higher priced FAs.

[BroadwayJets]

If he does, yes, I think next year will be the year. It's gotta be. It's not this year obviously, I figure if everything goes according to plan this year, we'll win 9 or 10 games, and after that, there will still be needs for improvement, after (hopefully) resigning wilk and kerley (which may not happen because of Saunders). Let's face it. If Milliner doesn't pan out, and the other corner (whoever starts) doesn't do well either, we're screwed pretty much. He'd have to be willing to make a splash. For the record, I believe Milliner will be MUCH better this year than last. I do believe Wilk will remain a jet after 2015, and I do believe Idzik will make the necessary moves that'll need to be made after this season to improve from a 9-10 win team to a 12-13 win team.

[Maxman]

Kelly cut Desean because he's a douchebag. We passed on Desean because he's a douchebag. Dan Snyder signed him because he's a douchebag and likes other douchebags. We'll probably keep passing on guys who are douchebags. Even if we're 11-5 next year, I'd bet a billion dollars that we don't sign any douchebags.

 

The only thing bad about you posting this brilliant post is that nobody will respond with an awesome gif.

[Maxman]

This was a discussion on the podcast tonight. I don't think Idzik does anything splash-like unless he's in the market for a QB. I think he's too conservative in nature, and too value driven. He needs to get the best of every deal, and it's hard to make deals with others when you're not very good at the give part of give and take.

With two full drafts under his belt, and not a single draft day trade, I think we can establish a trend. There was talk that he tried to move in both directions in both drafts, but was unable to make a deal. He's a tough negotiator, maybe too tough.

I also think he puts a lot of thought into bust potential, especially with his high picks. Milliner was a value pick at a need, and Sheldon was one of those planet picks with the size and speed that makes it hard to go wrong. This year, he may've been slightly distracted by Manziel, but it was probably down to Pryor or Cooks. Who's more likely to bust there? The undersized WR, or the hard hitting safety? Like Milliner and Richardson, he took the top prospect at his respective position in Pryor. I think he likes that, too.

He's also right on board with the ground and pound. Physicality is the key. Signed another veteran RB this year, and a big WR. Then went defense with two of his first three picks, with the third being the big TE. As much of a weapon Cooks might've potentially been, Pryor fits the team personality a lot better.

I think if he's in the market for a QB, he might be able to make a trade for the first pick of the draft - if only because he'll have weeks to negotiate it rather than ten minutes. But I think these last two years are what the future is going to bring. Value shopping in free agency, an attempt to collect comp picks, and then sitting tight and picking when it's his turn. When he has to spend money, he'll spend it to keep the guys he wants to keep.

 

Adding the JN Radio Podcast link:  http://www.jetnation.com/2014/05/14/new-york-jets-draft-recap-a-show-for-ny-jets-fans/

 

Great topic Slats.  I added the link for those that didn't get to listen yet.  Thanks!

[Sperm Edwards]

I wanted to say Dez, but I couldn't bring myself to do it.

Here are the main WRs, but they won't all hit FA of course:

Dez & Roddy, as you mentioned

Demaryius Thomas (yeah right, but I can dream)

Brandon Marshall

Wes Welker (though I think we've got enough slot receivers)

Crabtree

Nicks (even with a rebound year in Indy I don't see Idzik looking his way because of attitude/personality)

Then again, if 1 or 2 of the 3 we just drafted really show something, or start to, there may be no reason to dip into that well. We did all just see Seattle just wipe the floor with Denver and they didn't have a "true #1" killing Denver's secondary. Their theoretical (or by salary) #1 WR caught 1 pass for 5 yards, and their big-money TE didn't do much more. Actually, neither were lighting it up as receivers in any of Seattle's playoff games. Miller has been an afterthought really ever since Seattle paid big money to get him.

[slats]

Great post Slats.    I think Idzik tries to capitalize on other teams making desperate moves in the draft.   If they aren't desperate he doesn't move, and it's tough to negotiate in a 5 minute window.     He needs to be careful because at some point the phone just stops ringing.  

 

Couple of q's for you:

 

1 - was Pryor still the pick if some combination of Beckham, Barr, Martin, Fuller were still available?  

 

2 - What is the plan if Geno isn't the man?

  

1.) I doubt Martin was ever really in the discussion for them, but Beckham, Barr, and Fuller all seem like likely picks.

2.) Good question, lol. If they decide Geno isn't the guy, I think they go back after a QB in the first round next year. Like I said in the OP, I think Idzik could potentially finally get a draft pick trade done if he has a month to do it. But I don't know.

If he's going to win titles, he's going to have to overpay along the way. For instance, he supposedly got beat to Marqise Lee this year, and he lost out on Tavon Austin this year. If that keeps happening because he's trying to save a fourth round pick, he's going to end up having to overpay for a Percy Harvin down the line.

Or he could just keep drafting the Saunders, Evans, Enunwas of the world, and hope to hit. It all comes down to the QB. If Geno can spread the ball around, I think Idzik would be very happy without a guy catching more than 60 passes on the roster. A well balanced attack that includes a healthy running game, and near even distribution in the passing game to Decker, Amaro, Kerley, and Receiver X probably works pretty well for him. He doesn't seem like an all his eggs in one basket kinda guy. Last year, the offense fell apart when Kerley went down. If the load is being shared by four guys, losing one doesn't cripple you.