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Vegas sets o/u on Jets wins at 7


T0mShane
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Not as juiced about us fixing the strong safety position as some are, I suppose.

I can't believe that the three teams who took QBs in the first round have a lower Vegas win number than the Jets. Crazy. That team who took Carr in the second, too. I don't get it.

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Though I'd be curious what the odds are on the Vick vs. Geno battle and how that factors into the over/under.

 

I don't think any sites have constructed a model for that and to my knowledge no casinos have put together anything. Re: the latter I don't think very much, these aren't win probability models. I've always been under the impression that this particular sort is based in linear probability and multinomial logit (or similar). Since the difference between the two quarterbacks is an uncertainty at this point, if they're using it at all I think it's more likely that they're controlling for the quarterback situation than using it as a variable.

Edited by RutgersJetFan
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I'm not sure whom to believe--the multi-billion dollar industry commonly referred to as "Vegas," or the 300 17-year olds on Twitter typing out "yo jets r goin 12-4 this year I don't care #jetslife"

 

Trust your inner pedo.

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No. I'm saying that they're still not over the The Tanny, Rex, Woody Barnum & Bailey Show, and just like last year the line is wrong. Depending on how it's bet it could change again.

 

The National media has been dead wrong about them for over a year. Opinions gain momentum and douche bags like Peter King who don't know anything jump on the bandwagon. The lines have been a reflection of that.

 

I didn't say Idzik was great. If you don't think they're improved that's your opinion. We all have  'em. :winking0001:

 

I do think they're improved. Not by much, but they're improved for sure.

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It's a pretty fair number, and maybe trying to get people to take the over. I imagine sharps don't take season win totals, but if any do I'd be curious to see where the money is on this one.

 

Despite the negative public perception of the Jets, the simple logic here would be for someone to think that the Jets were 8-8 last year and likely got better over the offseason - so over 7 is a pretty easy bet. Of course that would be ignoring a few things: the Jets had (I believe) the worst scoring differential of any .500 or better team ever, lucked into a win or two last season with late penalties, and have what appears (on paper) to be a substantially more difficult schedule than last year. Granted the schedule on paper is never actually what it seems.

 

Realistically I expect the Jets to field a much better football team in 2014 and end up with about the same record, give or take a couple of games. And, provided the young guys show well, I think that's fine.

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vick signing aside, this team is at least likeable again.     The Jets were hard to like in '11 + '12.   A cry baby QB with an albatross contract, turdtonio, plaxico, mason, a broken down and overpaid bart scott, and no leadership on either side of the ball with no plan in the front office made every sunday depressing.    

 

If nothing else at least now there seems to be a plan and a youth movement.   The team may still be a year or two away but the building blocks are in place.   

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vick signing aside, this team is at least likeable again.     The Jets were hard to like in '11 + '12.   A cry baby QB with an albatross contract, turdtonio, plaxico, mason, a broken down and overpaid bart scott, and no leadership on either side of the ball with no plan in the front office made every sunday depressing.    

 

If nothing else at least now there seems to be a plan and a youth movement.   The team may still be a year or two away but the building blocks are in place.   

 

Might be in the minority, but I think Vick adds to the likeability.

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the team is better than last year but the schedule is also harder than last year. There's a couple of stretches for example (Den at home followed by at NE on 4 days rest... @ KC) that are downright unwinnable. 

Edited by bitonti
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Bet season unders, not overs.

 

 

 

There is a slight bias toward the over here. Each year there are 256 "wins" in the NFL and 256 "losses"; but add all of these up and it equals 258. Honestly surprised there is not more of an over bias, because typically these are homer "i'll put $100 on my team when I'm in vegas" type of bets. not judging just saying what it is--fun bets. so yes, statistically you have a slightly less chance to win an over than an under on these bets.

 

(and if you bet the jets over, a significantly less chance--kidding)

Edited by jgb
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Not that this has anything to do with the reason you bet unders (injuries duh), this is an under bias, not an over bias.

 

injuries can also help you win games--if they happen to your opponent. the bias is a direct result of more people betting on their team than betting against others. if a typical fan is in vegas he is more likely to bet on the jets over than the pats under as a "for fun bet," so they juice it a little to bring bets in on the other side. although it is less of an effect than i would've expected.

Edited by jgb
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I'll bet a brand new elite Pryor Jersey on the over. Any of you cry babies want to do more than bitch and moan? Tom? Stoic?

Uh, it's called "objective analysis." And I already stated that the Jets will win 9 games and you people will talk yourselves into believing that this is a great accomplishment, citing factors that you each previously stated were bogus.

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Uh, it's called "objective analysis." And I already stated that the Jets will win 9 games and you people will talk yourselves into believing that this is a great accomplishment, citing factors that you each previously stated were bogus.

 

9 would be a great accomplishment. i expect 6 wins

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injuries can also help you win games--if they happen to your opponent. the bias is a direct result of more people betting on their team than betting against others. if a typical fan is in vegas he is more likely to bet on the jets over than the pats under as a "for fun bet," so they juice it a little to bring bets in on the other side. although it is less of an effect than i would've expected.

 

Less as in the effect is exactly the opposite of what you think it should be, yes. An aggregate total that is greater than the number of possible wins is an under bias. Your theories are interesting but no substitute for basic math as far as gambling is concerned.

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Less as in the effect is exactly the opposite of what you think it should be, yes. An aggregate total that is greater than the number of possible wins is an under bias. Your theories are interesting but no substitute for basic math as far as gambling is concerned.

 

we are talking about the same type of bias--that the line favors the under bet--just used the wrong term. you are hung up on semantics and kind of being a b**** to someone trying to have an interesting discussion with you.

Edited by jgb
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Uh, it's called "objective analysis." And I already stated that the Jets will win 9 games and you people will talk yourselves into believing that this is a great accomplishment, citing factors that you each previously stated were bogus.

August: ESPN analysts pick Jets to win 4-6 games. Jets fans dismiss these predictions out of hand and commence a full-scale assault on ESPN analysts' wisdom, objectivity, appearance, and sexuality.

January: Jets conclude 9-win non-playoff season. Jets fans declare that ESPN analysts' preseason predictions are the only objective yardstick by which the season can be judged, conclude that when you think about it, the Jets are basically as good as [eventual Super Bowl winner].

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August: ESPN analysts pick Jets to win 4-6 games. Jets fans dismiss these predictions out of hand and commence a full-scale assault on ESPN analysts' wisdom, objectivity, appearance, and sexuality.

January: Jets conclude 9-win non-playoff season. Jets fans declare that ESPN analysts' preseason predictions are the only objective yardstick by which the season can be judged, conclude that when you think about it, the Jets are basically as good as [eventual Super Bowl winner].

ESPN said we'd win 4 and we won 8 so that's +4 and they said the fagtriots would win 12 and they won 11 so what's better +4 or -1? Hello it's called math.

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