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Tom Shane Predicts The Jets Season


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There is nothing entertaining or enjoyable about being a Jet fan. More like a colonoscopy with a few decent seconds from the anesthesia, and the cool sounding farts afterwords.

 

Except you pass out before counting to 10, and miss all the good parts.  Then you have to wait for it to come out on video.  Weak.

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Perspective my man, perspective.....

 

In the NFL, 5 years is a long time. For the most part, Rex is a .500 coach in his 5 years here.

 

 

not saying much but .525 winning percentage is actually decent in this league. He's like 2nd or 3rd all time franchise history (tuna is 1, groh had 1 winning year and went back to college). 

 

Rex isn't holding this franchise back from greatness. He's one of their few assets. 

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RE: Tannenbaum, my great complaint with him was that he had no business evaluating personnel, which left him at the mercy of his coaches and Bradway, which then led to an organizational insecurity which manifested itself in building through free agency and trades. Rex was an integral part of all of that, as evidenced by the string of all-swagger punks that started streaming through the door as soon as Rex was hired (you'll recall Tannenbaum and Mangini beating us over the head with the term "character" every off-season). Rex has done a bad job with the individual players he's been given, other than DL because he's a DL coach.

 

Definitely, anyone who thinks Rex wasn't heavily involved in personnel, particularly FA's, is kidding themselves. Blaming Tannenbaum doesn't hold water, as you said, he was clearly deferring to the alpha male head coach and adopting their philosophy as his own. He had no conviction/confidence cause he was in over his head. An old friend of mine is like that with women, so hen pecked, he'll completely change his stance on any topic in hopes the girl will stay with him. Sad really.

 

That is why I do blame Rex for the offense, he should've been demanding better competition for Sanchez as early as 2010, but I don't believe Rex has that kind of sway here anymore. MM runs the offense, and Idzik / MM decide on offensive personnel. What we are left with is his positives..a great DC, who the players seem to want to play for.

 

I really wanted Rex fired 18 months ago, but I think what we have now is workable, even "good", if we find a QB. I do not believe Idzik will stand pat at the position as we've already seen with Vick being brought in. Vick's a highly flawed player, but represents a major attempted upgrade over the Sanchez backups 

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Must be great to be Rex. Anything you do positive, is all you and not the players nor the GM. Anything you do not so great, is the fault of the GM or the players.

 

I think they call that teflon status?

 

Nope.  Plenty of areas in which Rex needs to improve.

 

However, the degradation of the roster I do not believe is one of them.  And if it is, that's still the GM's fault for giving the coach his job.

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That is why I do blame Rex for the offense, he should've been demanding better competition for Sanchez as early as 2010

 

After 2010, when we had one of our greatest seasons of all-time?  Nope.

 

After 2011, when Sanchez's collapse was the biggest cause of an 8-5 team missing the postseason?  Sure.  

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Definitely, anyone who thinks Rex wasn't heavily involved in personnel, particularly FA's, is kidding themselves. Blaming Tannenbaum doesn't hold water, as you said, he was clearly deferring to the alpha male head coach and adopting their philosophy as his own. He had no conviction/confidence cause he was in over his head. An old friend of mine is like that with women, so hen pecked, he'll completely change his stance on any topic in hopes the girl will stay with him. Sad really.

That is why I do blame Rex for the offense, he should've been demanding better competition for Sanchez as early as 2010, but I don't believe Rex has that kind of sway here anymore. MM runs the offense, and Idzik / MM decide on offensive personnel. What we are left with is his positives..a great DC, who the players seem to want to play for.

I really wanted Rex fired 18 months ago, but I think what we have now is workable, even "good", if we find a QB. I do not believe Idzik will stand pat at the position as we've already seen with Vick being brought in. Vick's a highly flawed player, but represents a major attempted upgrade over the Sanchez backups

+1 to all of this

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Definitely, anyone who thinks Rex wasn't heavily involved in personnel, particularly FA's, is kidding themselves. Blaming Tannenbaum doesn't hold water, as you said, he was clearly deferring to the alpha male head coach and adopting their philosophy as his own. He had no conviction/confidence cause he was in over his head. An old friend of mine is like that with women, so hen pecked, he'll completely change his stance on any topic in hopes the girl will stay with him. Sad really.

That is why I do blame Rex for the offense, he should've been demanding better competition for Sanchez as early as 2010, but I don't believe Rex has that kind of sway here anymore. MM runs the offense, and Idzik / MM decide on offensive personnel. What we are left with is his positives..a great DC, who the players seem to want to play for.

I really wanted Rex fired 18 months ago, but I think what we have now is workable, even "good", if we find a QB. I do not believe Idzik will stand pat at the position as we've already seen with Vick being brought in. Vick's a highly flawed player, but represents a major attempted upgrade over the Sanchez backups

Tanny was making crazy trades and throwing draft picks around long before Ryan. And Ryan didnt lose the team, they were 8-5 and seeking the playoffs for the 3rd straight season before Sanchez went full tard mode. Sanchez lost that team and Rex shouldered the blame to keep his boo from the firing squad.

The only knock on Rex is coddling Sanchez (though he didnt have much choice) and making some stupid predictions. That's about it, really.

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Orrrrrrrrr Pete Carroll took over a program that was 5-11 and 4-12 in the two seasons before he got there, then built it into one of the best teams in the NFL within three years. Not as impressive as taking over a 9-7 team and driving it into a complete rebuild three seasons later, but still...

 

Pete sure did a swell job drafting all those players.  That boy can sure cook him some fine meals when he is done shopping.

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After 2010, when we had one of our greatest seasons of all-time?  Nope.

 

After 2011, when Sanchez's collapse was the biggest cause of an 8-5 team missing the postseason?  Sure.  

 

Come on, half the people on this board knew Sanchez was a turd in 2010. Rex should've figured it out long before then

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Tanny was making crazy trades and throwing draft picks around long before Ryan. And Ryan didnt lose the team, they were 8-5 and seeking the playoffs for the 3rd straight season before Sanchez went full tard mode. Sanchez lost that team and Rex shouldered the blame to keep his boo from the firing squad.

The only knock on Rex is coddling Sanchez (though he didnt have much choice) and making some stupid predictions. That's about it, really.

 

Woody likes the back page, Tanny was always keen to suck up in that direction as well.  He had no conviction for an approach to building a team, and rightly so, he was in way over his head. You're a recruiter, imagine hiring a guy w/ an MBA to be CTO and expecting him not to be beholden to his top programmer. It can work if the top programmer is strong, but there's never a question whose really making the decisions. To equate it to Rex, I do believe those who are critical of him are right, he has a very antiquated notion of offensive football and he needed stronger support from the GM

 

In terms of Tanny, I'd suggest he was a victim of the peter principle, but I don't think he did his old job very well either.  His primary approach was relationship building, imo

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After 2010, when we had one of our greatest seasons of all-time? Nope.

After 2011, when Sanchez's collapse was the biggest cause of an 8-5 team missing the postseason? Sure.

He shouldn't want to have covered his ass at QB? Isn't it a popular refrain around here that Rex made it to two AFCCG's "despite" Sanchez? And now you want to say that it was wise to assume he was QB For Life?

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Pete sure did a swell job drafting all those players. That boy can sure cook him some fine meals when he is done shopping.

If Rex was the Seattle coach, Matt Flynn would be their QB, fans would be lamenting Sidney Rice, and asking how Rex is supposed to win with losers like Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Also, Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin would take turns fisting Rex, while Richard Sherman languished at CB4.

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Definitely, anyone who thinks Rex wasn't heavily involved in personnel, particularly FA's, is kidding themselves. Blaming Tannenbaum doesn't hold water, as you said, he was clearly deferring to the alpha male head coach and adopting their philosophy as his own. He had no conviction/confidence cause he was in over his head. An old friend of mine is like that with women, so hen pecked, he'll completely change his stance on any topic in hopes the girl will stay with him. Sad really.

That is why I do blame Rex for the offense, he should've been demanding better competition for Sanchez as early as 2010, but I don't believe Rex has that kind of sway here anymore. MM runs the offense, and Idzik / MM decide on offensive personnel. What we are left with is his positives..a great DC, who the players seem to want to play for.

I really wanted Rex fired 18 months ago, but I think what we have now is workable, even "good", if we find a QB. I do not believe Idzik will stand pat at the position as we've already seen with Vick being brought in. Vick's a highly flawed player, but represents a major attempted upgrade over the Sanchez backups

The bold is true, and it's gross. Rex has almost no impact on the season because it's all on Mornhinweg getting Geno to be a real QB while the in-name-only HC is relegated to Assistant DL Coach. If Rex had any personal pride, he'd quit after the season.

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He shouldn't want to have covered his ass at QB? Isn't it a popular refrain around here that Rex made it to two AFCCG's "despite" Sanchez? And now you want to say that it was wise to assume he was QB For Life?

Sperm laid out the Sanchez progression pretty well in a long post you may not've read. No one disagrees that the Jets, with Rex at head coach, did an absolute crap job of developing Sanchez. The team was successful despite him those first two years, but Sanchez had decent post seasons both years. The third year is when I think it should've become clear that Sanchez wasn't the guy. I don't know if they started to do exactly that when they decided to bring in Tebow, but that was also a horrible move. Sanchez' extension and the trade for Tebow got Tannanbaum fired, IMHO. And rightly so.

But that time is past, and it appears that Rex and the franchise have learned from those mistakes. Rex has ridden Geno much harder than he ever did with Sanchez, with some glimmers of a return to finish the year. They've brought in a backup who can still play, rather than the has-beens and never-weres they had backing up Sanchez.

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Come on, half the people on this board knew Sanchez was a turd in 2010. Rex should've figured it out long before then

He shouldn't want to have covered his ass at QB? Isn't it a popular refrain around here that Rex made it to two AFCCG's "despite" Sanchez? And now you want to say that it was wise to assume he was QB For Life?

 

It would have been very nice to have brought in a capable backup in the Jeff Garcia/Shaun Hill mold, but this regime committed a top 5 pick to Sanchez.  And the results were pretty good in back to back seasons.  Of course Sanchez was terrible, and this became crystal clear to most in 2011.  But in 2010 we merely hoped that his terrible play would improve.  No one was calling for a new starting QB before the 2011 season.

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It would have been very nice to have brought in a capable backup in the Jeff Garcia/Shaun Hill mold, but this regime committed a top 5 pick to Sanchez.  And the results were pretty good in back to back seasons.  Of course Sanchez was terrible, and this became crystal clear to most in 2011.  But in 2010 we merely hoped that his terrible play would improve.  No one was calling for a new starting QB before the 2011 season.

 

There were certainly many anti Sanchez posts during 2010. I don't really care to look, as there must be volumes about him,  but I think a fair share of the usual suspects were calling for legit competition to be brought in for 2011.

 

I can remember several long debates about the whole dropped interceptions stat in 2010 which supported the naysayers arguments while folks like Packy Pactardo dismissed it without even attempting to understand it

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The bold is true, and it's gross. Rex has almost no impact on the season because it's all on Mornhinweg getting Geno to be a real QB while the in-name-only HC is relegated to Assistant DL Coach. If Rex had any personal pride, he'd quit after the season.

You don't even believe what you say anymore.

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The bold is true, and it's gross. Rex has almost no impact on the season because it's all on Mornhinweg getting Geno to be a real QB while the in-name-only HC is relegated to Assistant DL Coach. If Rex had any personal pride, he'd quit after the season.

 

See this is where you lose sensible people. It's a given that Rex will field a top defense, and you act like it's routine. Mangina/Herm's defense paired with an average Geno does not get us in the playoffs, Rex's does

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If Rex was the Seattle coach, Matt Flynn would be their QB, fans would be lamenting Sidney Rice, and asking how Rex is supposed to win with losers like Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Also, Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin would take turns fisting Rex, while Richard Sherman languished at CB4.

 

Because Rex has proven that he always goes for the veteran QB over the young QB right?  Nice try but as much as you hate him, it doesn't make this true.

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If Rex was the Seattle coach, Matt Flynn would be their QB, fans would be lamenting Sidney Rice, and asking how Rex is supposed to win with losers like Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Also, Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin would take turns fisting Rex, while Richard Sherman languished at CB4.

 

Why?

 

The sad truth over the Rex's tenure is that every time Rex said, "Mark gives us the best chance to win," it was probably true.  Lobbying or not for another QB, it's still the GM's job to get one.  And, if not for the awful extension, we'd all have said, "Ok, a bit too long, but I get it, and now we're moving forward."  Unless that extension is now on Rex.

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Metlife Stadium

CrystalBallFootball

This was posted in the JetNation forums;
Please let the record state that we don’t agree with Tom’s opinion but we are sharing it for entertainment purposes only. Tom predicts a 7 and 9 record for the Jets this season. I personally don’t see the Jets taking a step back after adding Decker, Chris Johnson and Calvin Pryor but please read his predictions and tell us what you think about the

By Tom Shane

Last year, when absolutely no one but a few basketball “writers” (aka to Jets/Rex fans as “everyone”) were predicting the Jets to win 2 games, I boldly went against the Stephen A. grain and called for a 7-9 season, citing the fact that the Jets would do just enough on defense to make it interesting (and by “interesting,” I meant “just good enough to ruin a draft slot”). In sum, I was closer than “everyone.”


Without further ado, here is my 2014-2015 season prediction:

Oakland Raiders @ Jets
Result: Jets 27, Raiders 9

The Raiders have historically given the Jets major problems, but this Oakland team is straight trash. Matt Schaub has all the intestinal fortitude of a fainting goat, and Derek Carr won’t be ready to compete against an NFL defense like the one Rex will have prepared for this opener. Geno Smith will only throw the ball 17 times, but Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory will combine for 150 yards on the ground. Quentin Coples will have 2 sacks (one coming when Schaub collapses at his feet on a third-and-20 situation). Calvin Pryor will get flagged for his first helmet-to-helmet penalty when he hits James Jones in the lower abdomen too hard in the first quarter. 

Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Result: Packers 21, Jets 17

In what will be a pretty sloppy offensive game for both teams, Aaron Rodgers will do just enough to get the Packers a W. Geno Smith will throw a TD pass to Eric Decker in the fourth quarter to get it close, but it won’t be enough to overcome his two earlier INT’s. Jordy Nelson rolls the Jets corners for 9 catches on the day, and Clay Matthews runs around Breno Giacomini all day long. On the plus side, the front seven pushes around the Packers OL enough to keep Rodgers from getting comfortable.

Chicago Bears @ Jets (Monday night)
Result: Bears 42, Jets 16

This will be a wheels-fall-off type game similar to the beatdown the Jets received at the hands of the Bengals last season. The Bears have too much size at wideout, and Jay Cutler is too oblivious to get rattled by Rex’s defense. On offense, the Jets respond to Geno’s “slow start to the season” by floating the possibility of Vick starting at some point (“Boyitellya, he’s raring to go”–anonymous quote), which results in nine million QB CIRCUS! storylines in the papers, which then results in an untenable environment for any young QB. Marty Mornhinweg spends the week deflecting Vick questions, up until the third quarter rolls around and Vick takes the field. 

Detroit Lions @ Jets
Result: Jets 34, Lions 21

The Rex Jets respond well to public humiliation and short rest, both of which they’ll have for this matchup. Matt Stafford is just too dumb to win this game. Geno bounces back, throwing 2 TDs and rushing for 1. Calvin Pryor gets another flag for spearing Reggie Bush, and combines with Dee Milliner to give up a ridiculously easy-looking TD to Megatron. Another good day on the ground for Ivory and Chris Johnson, even though Chris Johnson develops a limp around this point in the season.

Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Result: Chargers 23, Jets 14

The Jets will scrap, but Chris Johnson will miss this game with a hamstring. This will be the first week that we see packages installed for Mike Vick, because that always works. The Chargers hate playing the Jets, but Mike McCoy is slowly filtering the hillbilliness out of Phillip Rivers’ game, which should be enough to knock the Jets down here.

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Result: Jets 35, Broncos 27

This will be the annual The Game The Jets Shouldn’t Win But Do Anyway Game. Geno plays well, Ivory and Powell keep the chains moving, and Peyton Manning gets drilled three times in the first quarter, inciting a billion ESPN mock-debates on the humanity of letting Peyton Manning take the field at his advanced age. 

Jets @ New England Patriots (Thursday night)
Result: Patriots 24, Jets 21

The Jets keep it close, but Mike Vick (in the WildVick package) fumbles late, leading to a Pats field goal that wins the game. 

Buffalo Bills @ Jets
Result: Jets 19, Bills 3

Another ugly game, but the Jets bounce back by beating on EJ Manuel. This is a Bills-Jets game, meaning that everyone who watches it comes away from it really depressed, regardless of the outcome. 

Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs
Result: Chiefs 36, Jets 3

The Revenge of Bob Sutton Game. Geno, in Arrowhead, trying to complete passes against that Chiefs defense, will look like trash. Alex Smith doesn’t turn it over, but the Jets will, leading to an ugly result. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jets
Result: Jets 14, Steelers 10

In a game reminiscent of the 1936 Chicago Cardinals v Des Moines Pioneers title match, the Jets nip Ben Roethlisberger on a Jalen Saunders 73-yard punt return. Calvin Pryor and Troy Polamalu both get flagged for defenseless receiver penalizes, leading to a lengthy, entirely fictional explanation of what a “defenseless receiver” is from Boomer Esiason. 

BYE WEEK

The Jets will be 5-5 going into the last six games, setting up yet another Save Rex’s Job motif around Florham Park. This is your life now, Jets fans. Forever. Learn to embrace it. 

Key stats at this point in the season:

Geno Smith–61% passing, 14 TDs, 8 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
Mike Vick–61% passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 fumbles.
Chris Johnson–156 carries, 4.2 ypc, 4 TDs
Jace Amaro– 24 catches, 3 TDs
Eric Decker–44 catches, 580 yards, 4 TDs
Jessie James–Two appearances on The View to discuss dog adoption; drops one track that, when remixed, sounds like a Taylor Swift B-side and thus reaches #86 on Billboard’s Hot 100.
Rushing Defense: Ranked #4!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Result: Bills 24, Jets 13

The Rex Ryan Jets are miserable off of Bye Weeks and Dave and Busters proves to be too enticing yet again. 

Jets @ Miami Dolphins (Monday Night)
Result: Dolphins 35, Jets 32

A Jets-Dolphins game on Monday Night promises to be wild, and Ryan Tannehill actually performs pretty well against the Jets. This will be a fun one that I think goes to the home team on some flukey BS that sticks in your brain for decades. 

Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

Result: Vikings 24, Jets 21

Bridgewater vs. Geno will be a great matchup for any and all self-flagellating Jets fans. The Jets passed on Bridgewater as a sign of confidence in Geno, but if Norv Turner can get Bridgewater to simply not suck as a rookie, there will be much hand-wringing for everyone involved in that decision. The Vikings could be a surprise team in the mold of the 09-10 Jets: they have the brash Head coach with the defensive background, the young QB, and a dominant running game. The Jets–flying into Minnesota for a 1 am start on a short week could be in for a beatdown. Getcha cat o’ nine tails ready.

Jets @ Tennessee Titans

Result: Jets 24, Titans 10

In one of the more stunning losses of the Jets 2013 season, they got their asses handed to them by Jake Locker and the Tennessee Titans. Though most of that blame fell squarely on a miserable performance by Geno, it still marked the first time in Locker’s life where he looked like an NFL QB. I don’t think it happens twice.

New England Patriots @ Jets

Result: Jets 19, Pats 17

This will forever become known as The Game That Determines Whether Rex Stays Or Goes, aka The Mehta Poll Game, aka The Game During Which Darrell Bevell Either Updated His Resume Or Deleted It Altogether aka The One Jets Game JiF Actually Watches This Year. The Jets, sitting at 6-8, need this game to save Rex. If they win it, he’s here for eternal life. I’d he loses it, he’s gone. Bill Belichick, looking at the Big Picture, starts Jimmy Garopollo, allowing Rex to remain as head coach in perpetuity.

Miami Dolphins @ Jets
Result: Dolphins 44, Jets 3

The result doesn’t matter because the three things Woody Johnson covets most have been attained: 1. A Manish Mehta Twitter poll will draw 100k respondents, 2. He’ll have gotten to refer to Bob Kraft as “Bobby” the week prior, and 3. He’ll get some Gatorade spilled on his Armani shoes after announcing Rex is returning. 

Final tally: The Jets go 7-9, but it was a gritty 7-9 and Pete Carroll went 7-9 once. 

Jetnationcom?d=yIl2AUoC8zA Jetnationcom?d=qj6IDK7rITs
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There were certainly many anti Sanchez posts during 2010. I don't really care to look, as there must be volumes about him,  but I think a fair share of the usual suspects were calling for legit competition to be brought in for 2011.

 

I can remember several long debates about the whole dropped interceptions stat in 2010 which supported the naysayers arguments while folks like Packy Pactardo dismissed it without even attempting to understand it

 

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  As a long-established Jets-QB-hater, I can freely admit I wasn't quite done with Sanchez yet after the 2010 season.  I agree that there was definitely a pretty common belief that the Jets needed to at least have something else going on at the QB position other than 'tards like Brunell and Clemens, but I still think the general opinion was that year 3 was going to be / should be Sanchez's opportunity to really prove himself.  Now there's no doubt that completely changed over the course of the 2011 season itself, but I'm not sure if heading in there was really a particularly significant group of people that were already done with him.  As much as I despised Sanchez for his Steelers' performance, I can admit that even I wasn't quite there yet.

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Oh, and Tom, if it makes you feel any better, after I was the one who broke the news to you last year that if your predictions were close to accurate that Rex would not likely be going anywhere despite your beliefs otherwise, I'll let you know now that you being similarly close this year has a very good chance of spelling the end for Rex.  Barring some unforeseen circumstances, playoffs are very likely to be the difference-maker this year.

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Tom thrashed Tannenbaum for personnel decisions, and rightly so.

 

John Idzik now has complete control of personnel decisions, and thus far seems to be doing fairly well in that role.

 

Idzik also determined that Rex should return for at least one more year.

 

Tom supports John Idzik.  But due to the congnitive dissonance created by Idzik retaining Rex, Tom retroactively blames Rex Ryan for the prior regime's personnel decisions, which he shouldn't have had control over in the first place.

 

Does this about sum it up?

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