Tom Shane Predicts The Jets Season

[Bugg]

See this is where you lose sensible people. It's a given that Rex will field a top defense, and you act like it's routine. Mangina/Herm's defense paired with an average Geno does not get us in the playoffs, Rex's does

True, but that's the core problem. A good defense looks great and keeps you in games. It makes the score look more respectable than it should be if our offense was a threat. Opposing offenses play it close to the vest knowning the Jets' offense is Private Oppum from "Saving Private Ryan"-a noncombatant, no threat, a mistake waiting to happen. And invariably and inevitably every defense is going to break down a few times every game. The Jets defense gets left on the field al day and wears down later in the game. And when your offense doesn't sustain drives and doesn't score points, those breakdowns are catastrophic. There is no margin for error when your offense consistently ranks 25th to 30th in PPG. 

 

Glad we got safety covered. 

[Jetsfan80]

True, but that's the core problem. A good defense looks great and keeps you in games. It makes the score look more respectable than it should be if our offense was a threat. Opposing offenses play it close to the vest knowning the Jets' offense is Private Oppum from "Saving Private Ryan"-a noncombatant, no threat, a mistake waiting to happen. And invariably and inevitably every defense is going to break down a few times every game. The Jets defense gets left on the field al day and wears down later in the game. And when your offense doesn't sustain drives and doesn't score points, those breakdowns are catastrophic. There is no margin for error when your offense consistently ranks 25th to 30th in PPG. 

 

Glad we got safety covered. 

 

 

Bottom line:  You need a QB and talent at as many other spots as possible to win a championship.  We saw the Seahawks do just that.  That's the formula.  Clearly Idzik didn't like the top QB's in this draft and decided to stick with his 2013 2nd rounder as "the guy", while adding talent everywhere. 

 

Yes, it was a safety we drafted, which has been a glaring weakness for this team since Landry departed.  But we also grabbed Decker, Chris Johnson, Breno, a few midround WR's, Vick (ugh), and Boyd.  We're not ignoring the offense.

[jgb]

Bottom line:  You need a QB and talent at as many other spots as possible to win a championship.  We saw the Seahawks do just that.  That's the formula.  Clearly Idzik didn't like the top QB's in this draft and decided to stick with his 2013 2nd rounder as "the guy", while adding talent everywhere. 

 

Yes, it was a safety we drafted, which has been a glaring weakness for this team since Landry departed.  But we also grabbed Decker, Chris Johnson, Breno, a few midround WR's, Vick (ugh), and Boyd.  We're not ignoring the offense.

 

for what it's worth idzik did get the consensus best QB, RB and WR (until desean jackson was released) in FA and the 2nd best TE in the draft. next year it's QB time as i fully expect geno to falter and vick to finish out the season/.

[T0mShane]

Tom thrashed Tannenbaum for personnel decisions, and rightly so.

John Idzik now has complete control of personnel decisions, and thus far seems to be doing fairly well in that role.

Idzik also determined that Rex should return for at least one more year.

Tom supports John Idzik. But due to the congnitive dissonance created by Idzik retaining Rex, Tom retroactively blames Rex Ryan for the prior regime's personnel decisions, which he shouldn't have had control over in the first place.

Does this about sum it up?

No.

[T0mShane]

Oh, and Tom, if it makes you feel any better, after I was the one who broke the news to you last year that if your predictions were close to accurate that Rex would not likely be going anywhere despite your beliefs otherwise, I'll let you know now that you being similarly close this year has a very good chance of spelling the end for Rex. Barring some unforeseen circumstances, playoffs are very likely to be the difference-maker this year.

BG, at this point I'll believe it when I see it.

[peebag]

Just cuz ya posted it twice, doesn't make it any better.

[SouthernJet]

Just cuz ya posted it twice, doesn't make it any better.

lol, love the user name

[SouthernJet]

BG, at this point I'll believe it when I see it.

maybe. depends if bevell still available.

[slats]

True, but that's the core problem. A good defense looks great and keeps you in games. It makes the score look more respectable than it should be if our offense was a threat. Opposing offenses play it close to the vest knowning the Jets' offense is Private Oppum from "Saving Private Ryan"-a noncombatant, no threat, a mistake waiting to happen. And invariably and inevitably every defense is going to break down a few times every game. The Jets defense gets left on the field al day and wears down later in the game. And when your offense doesn't sustain drives and doesn't score points, those breakdowns are catastrophic. There is no margin for error when your offense consistently ranks 25th to 30th in PPG. 

 

Glad we got safety covered.

Being able to rely upon a playoff caliber defense every year is not a core problem. And a single first round wasn't going to solve any core problems. You're on the record as having wanted Manziel. Time will tell how that plays out.

Meanwhile in free agency, the Jets added arguably the top QB, top WR, and top RB available - absolutely dwarfing what they spent on defense. They drafted a TE in the second round along with three more WRs. You keep trying to argue that the offense gets ignored because Rex, but obviously the organization recognizes the offensive deficiencies based on their pickups.

[T0mShane]

Why?

The sad truth over the Rex's tenure is that every time Rex said, "Mark gives us the best chance to win," it was probably true. Lobbying or not for another QB, it's still the GM's job to get one. And, if not for the awful extension, we'd all have said, "Ok, a bit too long, but I get it, and now we're moving forward." Unless that extension is now on Rex.

I just think it's difficult to plug in Hypothetical QB X and say that all of Rex's issues would disappear simply because, in five years, Rex hasn't fielded a team with an even average QB. Short of adding Peyton Manning, I think it's a reach to say that just throwing another guy into that spot cures all ills.

[Jetfan13]

PUTZ

[T0mShane]

Because Rex has proven that he always goes for the veteran QB over the young QB right? Nice try but as much as you hate him, it doesn't make this true.

Perhaps you missed Sperm's treatises on leverage, and how giving a QB a big contract guarantees his playing time.

[T0mShane]

Sperm laid out the Sanchez progression pretty well in a long post you may not've read. No one disagrees that the Jets, with Rex at head coach, did an absolute crap job of developing Sanchez. The team was successful despite him those first two years, but Sanchez had decent post seasons both years. The third year is when I think it should've become clear that Sanchez wasn't the guy. I don't know if they started to do exactly that when they decided to bring in Tebow, but that was also a horrible move. Sanchez' extension and the trade for Tebow got Tannanbaum fired, IMHO. And rightly so.

But that time is past, and it appears that Rex and the franchise have learned from those mistakes. Rex has ridden Geno much harder than he ever did with Sanchez, with some glimmers of a return to finish the year. They've brought in a backup who can still play, rather than the has-beens and never-weres they had backing up Sanchez.

Sperm quite consciously structured his Sanchez "history" to absolve Rex of all malfeasance the same Eurocentric history books made it sound like white people bought America for $26 and the Indians were so cool with it that Thanksgiving was born.

[T0mShane]

See this is where you lose sensible people. It's a given that Rex will field a top defense, and you act like it's routine. Mangina/Herm's defense paired with an average Geno does not get us in the playoffs, Rex's does

If an offense magically appears here, despite the failings of the Head Coach, and if that Head Coach stays far, far away from those 26 offensive players, and if the collusion of Idzik and Mornhinweg and David Lee can fix half of the team, then we'll be fine as long as we keep The Head Coach from screwing it up.

[sec337]

Nice work Tom taking all that time to put this together. Its to early to have any idea what kind of team we are going to have but hats off for the effort. Hope you are wrong.

[sec337]

Typical Jets right here, lose when they are suppose to win and win when they are suppose to lose. Who can argue at this point? So so many question marks at this point. We could have 2 good QB's or 2 crappy QB's by the middle of September.

[SouthernJet]

I can smell it..good year coming.....

[Thor99]

If Rex was the Seattle coach, Matt Flynn would be their QB, fans would be lamenting Sidney Rice, and asking how Rex is supposed to win with losers like Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Also, Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin would take turns fisting Rex, while Richard Sherman languished at CB4.

  

I just think it's difficult to plug in Hypothetical QB X and say that all of Rex's issues would disappear simply because, in five years, Rex hasn't fielded a team with an even average QB. Short of adding Peyton Manning, I think it's a reach to say that just throwing another guy into that spot cures all ills.

It's almost as difficult as pretending what Rex would do given a different situation.

This is fun.

[ZachEY]

I just think it's difficult to plug in Hypothetical QB X and say that all of Rex's issues would disappear simply because, in five years, Rex hasn't fielded a team with an even average QB. Short of adding Peyton Manning, I think it's a reach to say that just throwing another guy into that spot cures all ills.

 

I totally understand where you're coming from.

 

But, at the same time, when you eliminate all hypothetical QBs, what you're left with is Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith.  We've agreed that while Sanchez could have been handled better, his upside was still essentially limited to none.  The legendary Pete Carroll said this in the most politically correct way possible, and Jets fans basically told him to **** off.  Then it was Geno Smith.  A guy who dropped like a lead balloon and for good reason.  He wasn't ready to start, he'd never taken a snap under center, and he'd never run anything resembling a pro-style offense.  Ideally, Garrard would have been healthy and able to play.  But again, I'm not confident that on San Fran or New England or Green Bay, Geno Smith is a better player.  Though, he probably would have been because he'd have been dealing with something a little better than 12 games of Jeremy Kerley and David Nelson.

 

Long story short, I don't think Rex is the reason we haven't had a good QB.  I think drafting Sanchez, extending him, and then drafting Smith in the second and having him start in year one, is the reason.  These reasons don't fall squarely on Rex.

[CTM]

True, but that's the core problem. A good defense looks great and keeps you in games. It makes the score look more respectable than it should be if our offense was a threat. Opposing offenses play it close to the vest knowning the Jets' offense is Private Oppum from "Saving Private Ryan"-a noncombatant, no threat, a mistake waiting to happen. And invariably and inevitably every defense is going to break down a few times every game. The Jets defense gets left on the field al day and wears down later in the game. And when your offense doesn't sustain drives and doesn't score points, those breakdowns are catastrophic. There is no margin for error when your offense consistently ranks 25th to 30th in PPG. 

 

Glad we got safety covered. 

 

 

Clearly, which is why MM is here and Rex has virtually no say in the offense. This was made very clear when Idzik came out and said he'd be involved in the decision between Geno and Consuela last year. Rex is a DC with the title of HC.

 

As to the safety pick, that is Idzik, and frankly, I can't blame him for passing on Manziel as fun as it could've been, it's an extremely risky pick and Idzik seems a bit risk adverse. 

[Bugg]

Being able to rely upon a playoff caliber defense every year is not a core problem. And a single first round wasn't going to solve any core problems. You're on the record as having wanted Manziel. Time will tell how that plays out.

Meanwhile in free agency, the Jets added arguably the top QB, top WR, and top RB available - absolutely dwarfing what they spent on defense. They drafted a TE in the second round along with three more WRs. You keep trying to argue that the offense gets ignored because Rex, but obviously the organization recognizes the offensive deficiencies based on their pickups.

A good defense is not a problem.The way Ryan runs the team though puts too much pressure on any defense. There is no margin for error. Reliance on a good defense at the expense or indifference to a decent offense is once again going to be the Jets' downfall. Perhaps losing 13-3 looks prettier than 27-3. Once again, a 3 and out punt machine that racks up few points and turns the ball over is the problem. No matter how good your defense it is bordering on trivial if your offense is this bad. And it's gonna be bad.

Want to see how successful Decker is with Geno bounce passing it to him,or how effective Johnson is vs. 9 and 10 man fronts.

It's not gonna work. But we'll be #2 vs. the run, and that gets you a trophy as per Wrecks. Since the day he darkened the door of FLorham Park it's been one long lesson in overvaluing the wrong things. GROUND AND POUND! DUR!

A safety!?!?

[CTM]

I totally understand where you're coming from.

 

But, at the same time, when you eliminate all hypothetical QBs, what you're left with is Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith.  We've agreed that while Sanchez could have been handled better, his upside was still essentially limited to none.  The legendary Pete Carroll said this in the most politically correct way possible, and Jets fans basically told him to **** off.  Then it was Geno Smith.  A guy who dropped like a lead balloon and for good reason.  He wasn't ready to start, he'd never taken a snap under center, and he'd never run anything resembling a pro-style offense.  Ideally, Garrard would have been healthy and able to play.  But again, I'm not confident that on San Fran or New England or Green Bay, Geno Smith is a better player.  Though, he probably would have been because he'd have been dealing with something a little better than 12 games of Jeremy Kerley and David Nelson.

 

Long story short, I don't think Rex is the reason we haven't had a good QB.  I think drafting Sanchez, extending him, and then drafting Smith in the second and having him start in year one, is the reason.  These reasons don't fall squarely on Rex.

 

Shame understands alll of this, he simply needs to contort every scenario to support his obsession with ousting Rex. Prior to that it was Tannenbaum, after Rex it will be Idzik. The little fella will be calling for Rex's head an hour after winning the SB. It's his trip

[CTM]

A good defense is not a problem.The way Ryan runs the team though puts too much pressure on any defense. There is no margin for error. Reliance on a good defense at the expense or indifference to a decent offense is once again going to be the Jets' downfall. Perhaps losing 13-3 looks prettier than 27-3. Once again, a 3 and out punt machine that racks up few points and turns the ball over is the problem. No matter how good your defense it is bordering on trivial if your offense is this bad. And it's gonna be bad.

Want to see how successful Decker is with Geno bounce passing it to him,or how effective Johnson is vs. 9 and 10 man fronts.

It's not gonna work. But we'll be #2 vs. the run, and that gets you a trophy as per Wrecks. Since the day he darkened the door of FLorham Park it's been one long lesson in overvaluing the wrong things. GROUND AND POUND! DUR!

A safety!?!?

 

 

So, the solution was to have Sanchez and Geno fling it all over the field, so we could lose 42-24 instead of win 17-14?

[artemusclyde]

Clearly, which is why MM is here and Rex has virtually no say in the offense. This was made very clear when Idzik came out and said he'd be involved in the decision between Geno and Consuela last year. Rex is a DC with the title of HC.

 

As to the safety pick, that is Idzik, and frankly, I can't blame him for passing on Manziel as fun as it could've been, it's an extremely risky pick and Idzik seems a bit risk adverse. 

 

You can however blame him for passing on Bridgewater.

[Lizard King]

A good defense is not a problem.The way Ryan runs the team though puts too much pressure on any defense. There is no margin for error. Reliance on a good defense at the expense or indifference to a decent offense is once again going to be the Jets' downfall. Perhaps losing 13-3 looks prettier than 27-3. Once again, a 3 and out punt machine that racks up few points and turns the ball over is the problem. No matter how good your defense it is bordering on trivial if your offense is this bad. And it's gonna be bad.

Want to see how successful Decker is with Geno bounce passing it to him,or how effective Johnson is vs. 9 and 10 man fronts.

It's not gonna work. But we'll be #2 vs. the run, and that gets you a trophy as per Wrecks. Since the day he darkened the door of FLorham Park it's been one long lesson in overvaluing the wrong things. GROUND AND POUND! DUR!

A safety!?!?

 

^^^yes

Shame understands alll of this, he simply needs to contort every scenario to support his obsession with ousting Rex. Prior to that it was Tannenbaum, after Rex it will be Idzik. The little fella will be calling for Rex's head an hour after winning the SB. It's his trip

no

[Lizard King]

You can however blame him for passing on Bridgewater.

indeed

[Lizard King]

to be fair we needed, desperately, a safety. our secondary was bad last year, it lost guys in free agency and was destined to be a black hole.

[CTM]

You can however blame him for passing on Bridgewater.

 

Rex? or Idzik?

 

I was talking to a Manziel guy, I agree Bridgewater was a more Idzik like pick there,, but apparently they don't value the delta between Bridgewater and Geno as a 1st rounder. In other words, Idzik felt Geno + Pryor > Bridgewater, a position I can't completely condemn at first glance. And fwiw.. I think Geno is a turd

[Bugg]

So, the solution was to have Sanchez and Geno fling it all over the field, so we could lose 42-24 instead of win 17-14?

No. By hook or by crook or draft or trade or free agency you go and get a real goddamn QB. At least, despite his myriad suckitude Tannenbaum occasionally understood this. Parcells too, which is how Testaverde ended up here. If in 2008 Favre stays healthy, who knows?

SImply can no longer accept a glum resignation sad face that there was nobody in the draft, so, forget it until when ever. That is crap. Make it happen. Got $20 million in cap room, some decent QB probably wants some of it and wants out of his current location. Instead we wait for what exactly? Or is the owner cheap, the GM an overpromoted dope, and the HC an overgrown ape who thinks it's 1972, three yards and a cloud of dust and none of that fancy passing stuff.

[Lizard King]

Rex? or Idzik?

 

I was talking to a Manziel guy, I agree Bridgewater was a more Idzik like pick there,, but apparently they don't value the delta between Bridgewater and Geno as a 1st rounder. In other words, Idzik felt Geno + Pryor > Bridgewater, a position I can't completely condemn at first glance. And fwiw.. I think Geno is a turd

 

 

Plays exactly into what Bugg said above. Guy who can hand ball off + improved passing defense > scoring points.

 

wrong equation

[Lizard King]

No. By hook or by crook or draft or trade or free agency you go and get a real goddamn QB. At least, despite his myriad suckitude Tannenbaum occasionally understood this. Parcells too, which is how Testaverde ended up here. If in 2008 Favre stays healthy, who knows?

SImply can no longer accept a glum resignation sad face that there was nobody in the draft, so, forget it until when ever. That is crap. Make it happen. Got $20 million in cap room, some decent QB probably wants some of it and wants out of his current location. Instead we wait for what exactly? Or is the owner cheap, the GM an overpromoted dope, and the HC an overgrown ape who thinks it's 1972, three yards and a cloud of dust and none of that fancy passing stuff.

Philosophically I agree, but who do you take this year either in FA or draft? Bridgewater? We didn't have many options.

[Bugg]

to be fair we needed, desperately, a safety. our secondary was bad last year, it lost guys in free agency and was destined to be a black hole.

This guy had better be a perennial All Pro starting day 1. Guards and safeties are the 2 spots you can get servicable help off the street.Aren't Thurman and Rex great D coaches?

[Lizard King]

This guy had better be a perennial All Pro starting day 1. Guards and safeties are the 2 spots you can get servicable help off the street.Aren't Thurman and Rex great D coaches?

So you wanted to do what this year? Trade up and grab Bortles or Watkins? Spend a ton of money in the offseason on......? It wasn't really there to take this year.

[jgb]

See this is where you lose sensible people. It's a given that Rex will field a top defense, and you act like it's routine. Mangina/Herm's defense paired with an average Geno does not get us in the playoffs, Rex's does

 

putting aside the fact that if something is "a given," it is by definition "routine," when you are paid to be responsible for two functions it isn't an excuse that you are good at one and that should somehow compensate for you being a detriment to the other.

 

my issue isn't so much that rex isn't an offensive genius--he will never be that. my main problem with rex is that he's such a homer for his defense that it creates a locker room rift every freaking year between the two sides of the ball. that is just not acceptable for a leader. he needs to figure out how to be more directly involved in the things he is good at without creating an impression among his players that there is a caste system on the team between offense and defense.

[Lizard King]

putting aside the fact that if something is "a given," it is by definition "routine," when you are paid to be responsible for two functions it isn't an excuse that you are good at one and that should somehow compensate for you being a detriment to the other.

 

my issue isn't so much that rex isn't an offensive genius--he will never be that. my main problem with rex is that he's such a homer for his defense that it creates a locker room rift every freaking year between the two sides of the ball. that is just not acceptable for a leader. he needs to figure out how to be more directly involved in the things he is good at (defense) without creating an impression among his players that there is a caste system on the team between offense and defense.

I agree. We are living the Sanchez sins again through the head coach. The GM shouldn't be sitting in his office saying "Whos going to coach my offense" , that's a HC job, but that's exactly the problem we currently have and it's because, I think, that Woody is holding onto Rex to the detriment of the club