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Bilal Powell: potential cap casualty?


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It's more of a roster issue than a cap issue.    The Jets have a glut of mediocre wr's including 3 draft picks and only so many roster spots.    At RB, the Jets keep 2 of: TBo, RIchardson, Green, Powell.    My gut says Powell makes the team.  

 

the more interesting position is WR where you have 9 WRs competing for 5 or 6 roster spots. 

 

Possibly. I don't think it's a given that we carry 4 RBs, though it wouldn't surprise me.  But a team with all these WRs, as you point out, may feel the roster spot is better spent on a maybe at WR since there's a lot of ?s just brought in.  We're bringing back Kerley+Hill+Nelson (and I guess Gates) plus they picked up 2 free agents and 3 more in the draft.  Knock off Gates, and unless something surprises, Enunwa may be headed for the PS.  If Hill shows improvement, Nelson appears to remain solid enough, and the 2 other draft picks look good, that would leave Ford as the next odd man out.  But if they don't want to dump Ford so fast do they give that extra roster spot to him or to a 4th RB spot?

 

If they decide to only carry 3 RBs then it comes down to Powell or Richardson.  Richardson is nearly $1M cheaper thanks to the escalators Powell reached (typically 35% of snaps or something; was the same for Kerley). 

 

I don't know how much the compensatory pick factors in with Powell.  In a dream situation, how does Powell end up yielding more than a 6th rounder (if even that much)? As our #3 RB in 2014, he's not getting a bigger contract than Shonn Greene got coming off a 1000 yard season as our #1.  The likely compensatory gain would be a 7th.  Plus we're going to have enough free agents after this season that it doesn't matter:  (assuming we re-sign Kerley), there's Harris, Ellis, Wilson, Vick, Patterson, Nelson, Barnes, and some others...Powell isn't going to be much of a factor on that front, as there's a max of 4 comp picks awarded to a team in a season.  Granted, with $70M or whatever in cap space we're going to be adding some as well, but you don't hold onto a guy for $1M extra in 2016 because he might yield a 7th round compensatory pick in 2016.  You play that UFA timing game with starters, not with 3rd stringers.

 

It's true that the team is hardly cap-strapped. But that's not a reason to overpay a 3rd string RB, who becomes a FA next year anyway, by nearly a million dollars.  Not when so much can be carried over to future caps.  The only things that muddies the decision are (1) what they think of Richardson after seeing him up close for several weeks, and (2) Ivory's injury history.  And not necessarily in that order. 

 

I think Powell needs to have a great camp, or Richardson a crappy one, to guarantee his roster spot.

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camp means nothing for Powell at this stage. The team knows his capabilities and that's what will ultimately be the Judge. I;m not sure if the Jets keep 4 backs and a FB at this stage with so many young receivers in the mix it may come down to what position keeps the extra guy.

 

Training camp never matters till it does.

 

Someone like Green or Richardson has to play daylights out to upsurp Powell.

 

End of the day it would be a idiotic decision to cut him if Powell plays like he did last season.

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Training camp never matters till it does.

 

Someone like Green or Richardson has to play daylights out to upsurp Powell.

 

End of the day it would be a idiotic decision to cut him if Powell plays like he did last season.

 

Perhaps.  But it wasn't long ago that it was idiotic to let Shaun Ellis go to the Patriots as a free agent (Chris Baker before him, and Victor Hobson before Baker). 

 

Powell was merely fine last year. It's entirely possible that Richardson is better.

 

Again, I'm not predicting Powell will get cut.  Only that he's making a LOT for a #3 RB, for a team that has picked up 3 other 7-figure/year players at the position in free agency in the past 2 seasons, not even counting Richardson. If I were him I'd be concerned.

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Perhaps.  But it wasn't long ago that it was idiotic to let Shaun Ellis go to the Patriots as a free agent (Chris Baker before him, and Victor Hobson before Baker). 

 

Powell was merely fine last year. It's entirely possible that Richardson is better.

 

Again, I'm not predicting Powell will get cut.  Only that he's making a LOT for a #3 RB, for a team that has picked up 3 other 7-figure/year players at the position in free agency in the past 2 seasons, not even counting Richardson. If I were him I'd be concerned.

 

Powell got us 48 First downs last season with both his rushing and receiving skills. That is a lot of first downs to replace. He is not going anywhere. What he is making is part of his rookie deal. And dont they go about this by how much they are playing per position. I don't think the JETS are playing a lot for this position.

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Powell got us 48 First downs last season with both his rushing and receiving skills. That is a lot of first downs to replace. He is not going anywhere. What he is making is part of his rookie deal. And dont they go about this by how much they are playing per position. I don't think the JETS are playing a lot for this position.

 

They very well could look at it that way. That the combined $ of CJ+Ivory+Powell is reasonable. They may also view CJ+Ivory+Richardson as more reasonable. 

 

Also in adding a back like CJ (and Goodson before him), they may feel that for as many yards as Powell did get, that he left a lot on the field because he just isn't particularly fast, elusive, or powerful. That 48 first downs should have been 58 (or more) on those same snaps.  Or that a 17 yard scamper was through such a big hole it should have been 50 yards.  Further, they also should realize that only an injury to Chris Johnson - an early, serious one at that - is likely to lead to Powell running for anywhere near 48 first down runs in 2014.

 

He does, however, catch the ball reasonably well and doesn't miss obvious blocking assignments (none stick out that I can recall). The latter point alone may be enough to keep him on, particularly with the playbook being carried over (though I think that point gets overvalued itself unless the RB has an IQ under 60, like Trent Richardson must, since he allegedly never fully picked up the Colts' playbook in 3 months).

 

At the same time, he neither returns punts nor kickoffs. He hasn't spent 1 "snap" on special teams in 2 of his 3 NFL seasons, and the one he did he was on the Jets' worst-performing special teams unit since Westhoff was first hired in 2001.  The team has known what he brings to the table and still has chosen to bring in 4 free agent RBs over the past 2 seasons, 3 of them carrying 7-figure salaries and/or signing bonuses, and 2 of the 4 were added just this spring.

 

I don't think 48 first downs are a lot to replace unless one assumes they would have otherwise disappeared, but for the unique presence of Bilal Powell. 

 

Maybe it's more common than I realize, but I don't know how many teams carry a $1.5M 3rd string RB who doesn't return kicks and isn't a regular/beast anywhere on special teams.

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Powell will not be a cap casualty, I can guarantee that. The reason is very simple: despite signing Eric Decker, the Jets are going to be a run first team. That's Rex's offensive vision. He is going to have a three-pronged running attack that will set up the pass. That's what got the Jets to the AFC title game in 2010 (although that was a two-pronged attack). Thomas Jones is what got them there In 2009. The question is whether the Jets have the offensive to do it.

But seriously, Rex's philosophy on offense is that you can never have enough tailbacks. So don't be thinking Powell will be a casualty, unless he has a really bad camp

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I don't know how much the compensatory pick factors in with Powell.  In a dream situation, how does Powell end up yielding more than a 6th rounder (if even that much)? As our #3 RB in 2014, he's not getting a bigger contract than Shonn Greene got coming off a 1000 yard season as our #1.  The likely compensatory gain would be a 7th.  Plus we're going to have enough free agents after this season that it doesn't matter:  (assuming we re-sign Kerley), there's Harris, Ellis, Wilson, Vick, Patterson, Nelson, Barnes, and some others...Powell isn't going to be much of a factor on that front, as there's a max of 4 comp picks awarded to a team in a season.  Granted, with $70M or whatever in cap space we're going to be adding some as well, but you don't hold onto a guy for $1M extra in 2016 because he might yield a 7th round compensatory pick in 2016.  You play that UFA timing game with starters, not with 3rd stringers.

I don't think the compensatory issue with Powell is what kind of pick he might get you (and I agree, a sixth rounder would be the high end), but rather how he might figure into the total number of comp picks they can possibly get. If the Jets lose five players in free agency, and sign two, they'd be eligible for three comp picks. If they lose those five + Powell in the same scenario, now they're eligible for all four.

If he's beaten out in camp, good riddance. That's fine. But if it's close, the $1M shouldn't be the deciding factor. The fact that he's solid -if unspectacular- at every facet of the position is a nice thing to have at the third RB spot.

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I don't think the compensatory issue with Powell is what kind of pick he might get you (and I agree, a sixth rounder would be the high end), but rather how he might figure into the total number of comp picks they can possibly get. If the Jets lose five players in free agency, and sign two, they'd be eligible for three comp picks. If they lose those five + Powell in the same scenario, now they're eligible for all four.

If he's beaten out in camp, good riddance. That's fine. But if it's close, the $1M shouldn't be the deciding factor. The fact that he's solid -if unspectacular- at every facet of the position is a nice thing to have at the third RB spot.

 

Yeah, it's just under $1M, not just under $3M. And Ivory not exactly being the NFL's iron horse is in Powell's favor.  I just think that it's interesting they brought in Richardson and CJ with Ivory's spot already 100% secure. 

 

We'll see.  Maybe Richardson is just camp fodder himself to make sure Powell doesn't coast through the summer, thinking his spot is written in stone.  But it's not like Powell is THAT good, or they'd have been happy to have him return as the starter this season.

 

I do think it's more likely than not he's still here come September. But I don't think it's any sort of lock.  A guy that far down the depth chart - at a ball-carrier position - would typically be making the league minimum or doubles up as a return specialist.  Or maybe they will have him returning punts (at least as a backup guy) this year.  It's not like he can't catch or has no wiggle to his game.  Last year they understandably wouldn't dare with him being the "1-B" starting RB pretty much the whole season.  But this year he may have to do something else other than act as benchwarmer/insurance in case of injury.  Or he may have to agree to a cut in exchange for a guaranteed roster spot.  If Idzik does go that route, I really hope they don't do it to this kid in the last week of August. That was just awful.

 

Again, we'll see.

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Yeah, it's just under $1M, not just under $3M. And Ivory not exactly being the NFL's iron horse is in Powell's favor.  I just think that it's interesting they brought in Richardson and CJ with Ivory's spot already 100% secure. 

 

We'll see.  Maybe Richardson is just camp fodder himself to make sure Powell doesn't coast through the summer, thinking his spot is written in stone.  But it's not like Powell is THAT good, or they'd have been happy to have him return as the starter this season.

 

I do think it's more likely than not he's still here come September. But I don't think it's any sort of lock.  A guy that far down the depth chart - at a ball-carrier position - would typically be making the league minimum or doubles up as a return specialist.  Or maybe they will have him returning punts (at least as a backup guy) this year.  It's not like he can't catch or has no wiggle to his game.  Last year they understandably wouldn't dare with him being the "1-B" starting RB pretty much the whole season.  But this year he may have to do something else other than act as benchwarmer/insurance in case of injury.  Or he may have to agree to a cut in exchange for a guaranteed roster spot.  If Idzik does go that route, I really hope they don't do it to this kid in the last week of August. That was just awful.

 

Again, we'll see.

 

As far as Richardson goes, I think it will be a matter of straight up competition.  Not that they'll necessarily go into camp playing it out as they're really fighting it out for this spot, but the point being that if Richardson simply outperforms Powell, then that could certainly cost him his job.  I just don't think the money will really be much of a deciding factor, it will be more of a matter of who they feel are their three best options.  Richardson's health would also probably have to be somewhat of a concern, especially with Ivory having his own health problems, so I think even if it's close the job will probably be Powell's even in spite of the extra money.  Richardson will have to outright win the job, which certainly isn't impossible.

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We'll see.  He would be only one of two 3rd string RBs in the NFL with a cap # or salary of $1.1M this season.  

 

The only team with a more expensive 3rd stringer is San Diego.  Whether the depth chart has Woodhead ($2.25M) or Brown ($1.83M) officially at #3 doesn't matter; they each make more than Powell ($1.43M) will this season. Their motivation may be a bit different, though. They're more obvious contenders this year, and with Mathews both injury-prone and entering free agency next season, I think they're going to ride him hard until he falls apart or goes down for the season and then let him go.  Woodhead is a 3rd down back who figures to have a lower injury risk, but is also a FA after the season and turns 30 next year.  Brown is similar to Woodhead (in what areas he's productive).  The difference between Mathews or Woodhead (turning FA in 2015) and Powell is that those 2 probably figure to get more action than Brown (at least until Mathews gets hurt, which should be sometime this afternoon). Brown is the expensive 3rd stringer, but he's in their long term plans I'm sure more than Powell figures to be.

 

After There are only like 2 or 3 teams with a #3 RB making $1.0-1.1M.

 

It's high for a #3.  Not gargantuan, but around the league the typical #3 RB falls in the $500-700K range, and Powell - who is a FA next year anyway - is more than double that.

 

Again, it doesn't mean that he won't be there, and as much as I think it's likely he's here, he's not a lock for the final roster. He can definitely lose his spot to Richardson.  Now if the team is hell-bent on carrying 4 RBs plus a FB, then I would agree he's got nothing to worry about.  They're not replacing him with Green for less than $1M. 

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I think hes a guy that could be in danger. My guess is they want to see how Johnson looks and if Ivory is actually healthy before moving on. I do think they would look to trade him first for like a 7th/conditional 7th which is another reason they would hold on and try to showcase him. If this was Tannenbaum in charge Im sure his salary would have been cut already in return for a roster spot. Not sure of Idziks feelings on those type of players. 

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I think hes a guy that could be in danger. My guess is they want to see how Johnson looks and if Ivory is actually healthy before moving on. I do think they would look to trade him first for like a 7th/conditional 7th which is another reason they would hold on and try to showcase him. If this was Tannenbaum in charge Im sure his salary would have been cut already in return for a roster spot. Not sure of Idziks feelings on those type of players.

If Tannenbaum was in charge we wouldn't have had the cap space to sign both ivory and cj so powell would be higher on the depth chart.

And you know if he was going to cut him over $1M he wouldn't. He'd threaten to cut him if powell didn't agree to a 50% cut...in the last week of August. But if he took it then Tannenbaum would guarantee the (reduced) salary.

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I don't think Daryl Richardson or Alex Green is beating out Powell for anything, and with Ivory's injury history you need a third capable back in this stable.

 

Unless some team losses their back, and their back-up, and are desperate and offer more than his worth ... Powell stays.

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And you know if he was going to cut him over $1M he wouldn't. He'd threaten to cut him if powell didn't agree to a 50% cut...in the last week of August. But if he took it then Tannenbaum would guarantee the (reduced) salary.

 

that was tough to watch.  clemens did fine at other stops, you have to wonder if he regrets not saying F U and testing the open market.  being late to camp isn't a huge deal for the back up, a think some team would have taken a chance and stashed him until he could learn the offense

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that was tough to watch.  clemens did fine at other stops, you have to wonder if he regrets not saying F U and testing the open market.  being late to camp isn't a huge deal for the back up, a think some team would have taken a chance and stashed him until he could learn the offense

 

I don't care if Clemens was 10x worse than Brooks Bollinger.  It was disgusting to watch.

 

I can understand why he didn't test the market.  No one was going to sign him immediately, after the team that knew him best offered him league-minimum or take a hike, and promoted a glorified QB coach ahead of Clemens on the depth chart despite the latter being in his playing prime (age-wise).

 

Pretend you're Clemens in that situation.  You have a take it or leave it offer from the Jets for like $700K or something in that range.  Put aside your knowledge of how much less that is than so many others make, and think of him as an individual with a family not just a QB.  The money is guaranteed.  He has a home in the area.  He has a wife and a son.  School starts in a week.  I get where you're coming from, but it's an emotional position.  In addition to being a QB - one who was benched and buried behind 2 sucky QBs in their own right, and without a big nest egg to fall back upon - he's a homeowner and a husband and a father.  You take the guaranteed money and next year you plan on looking elsewhere.

 

What was really so crappy about it wasn't merely that situation on camera.  But rather, he was a RFA who was tagged at $1.5M (maybe more).  All spring long, no one was going to offer him a contract at any price because they'd then owe the Jets a 2nd round pick.  So he did the only thing he could do, which was to sign the tender.  Unfortunately, he fell victim to what could be the worst part of the CBA, which is that despite being a free agent without a contract, he can't sign with someone else (in practical terms).  And the team that unlike a franchise tag, a RFA tag is not guaranteed.  So after playing out his rookie contract, he has to again sign with his former team, and the team doesn't have to pay.  And ultimately, the reason he was in that situation was that he was drafted too high.  If he was a 5th round pick or later, he wouldn't have had to sign the Jets' tender, as someone who liked him coming out of Oregon may have been willing to fork over a later pick to see him first-hand (and be a backup QB for a year at worst).

 

So yeah, it was tough to watch, and that's a kind word to use.

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I don't care if Clemens was 10x worse than Brooks Bollinger.  It was disgusting to watch.

 

I can understand why he didn't test the market.  No one was going to sign him immediately, after the team that knew him best offered him league-minimum or take a hike, and promoted a glorified QB coach ahead of Clemens on the depth chart despite the latter being in his playing prime (age-wise).

 

Pretend you're Clemens in that situation.  You have a take it or leave it offer from the Jets for like $700K or something in that range.  Put aside your knowledge of how much less that is than so many others make, and think of him as an individual with a family not just a QB.  The money is guaranteed.  He has a home in the area.  He has a wife and a son.  School starts in a week.  I get where you're coming from, but it's an emotional position.  In addition to being a QB - one who was benched and buried behind 2 sucky QBs in their own right, and without a big nest egg to fall back upon - he's a homeowner and a husband and a father.  You take the guaranteed money and next year you plan on looking elsewhere.

 

What was really so crappy about it wasn't merely that situation on camera.  But rather, he was a RFA who was tagged at $1.5M (maybe more).  All spring long, no one was going to offer him a contract at any price because they'd then owe the Jets a 2nd round pick.  So he did the only thing he could do, which was to sign the tender.  Unfortunately, he fell victim to what could be the worst part of the CBA, which is that despite being a free agent without a contract, he can't sign with someone else (in practical terms).  And the team that unlike a franchise tag, a RFA tag is not guaranteed.  So after playing out his rookie contract, he has to again sign with his former team, and the team doesn't have to pay.  And ultimately, the reason he was in that situation was that he was drafted too high.  If he was a 5th round pick or later, he wouldn't have had to sign the Jets' tender, as someone who liked him coming out of Oregon may have been willing to fork over a later pick to see him first-hand (and be a backup QB for a year at worst).

 

So yeah, it was tough to watch, and that's a kind word to use.

 

agreed, isn't he his own agent as well ?  I don't remember him even making a phone call, just took it on the spot

 

could be another factor tanny took advantage of

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agreed, isn't he his own agent as well ?  I don't remember him even making a phone call, just took it on the spot

 

could be another factor tanny took advantage of

 

I don't know. There's also the chance that Clemens knew why he was being called into Tannenbaum's office and that his agent had already spoken with Clemens and approved the contract that Clemens signed.  That while it wasn't staged, necessarily, but as I recall Clemens didn't have the shocked look on his face that one would expect.  Plus that's kind of fast to just sign so quickly afterward if he truly was hearing this for the first time.

 

Or you're right and he was his own agent.

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I don't know. There's also the chance that Clemens knew why he was being called into Tannenbaum's office and that his agent had already spoken with Clemens and approved the contract that Clemens signed.  That while it wasn't staged, necessarily, but as I recall Clemens didn't have the shocked look on his face that one would expect.  Plus that's kind of fast to just sign so quickly afterward if he truly was hearing this for the first time.

 

Or you're right and he was his own agent.

 

I googled it

 

 

The bigger concern arose regarding the riveting scene involving G.M. Mike Tannenbaum and fifth-year quarterback Kellen Clemens, who received a “take-a-pay-cut-or-take-a-hike” ultimatum in Tannenbaum’s office.  Though reasonable minds possibly could differ in this regard, some in the league and the media concluded that Clemens was learning of his fate for the first time, directly from Tannenbaum, with agent David Dunn not involved or previously aware that the conversation was occurring.  That was my own impression upon watching the episode, and the fact that Clemens seemed to be getting the news for the first time made it even more compelling.

As one high-level exec with another team pointed out, direct communications like that between team and player when the player is represented by an agent are strictly prohibited.  Though we could find no language in the CBA that specifically addresses the situation, one provision in the labor deal states that teams may not communicate or negotiate with agents who are not certified by the NFLPA, and that the teams must work instead through a player’s NFLPA-certified representative.  At a minimum, this strongly implies that, when a player is represented by an NFLPA-certified agent, the team must work through the agent when it comes to situations like this.

Several agents with whom we spoke unequivocally agreed.  They said, in often strong, Hard Knocks-style language, that players never should be put in the position of having to address the business aspects of their job directly with team management, especially when it comes to a decision as to whether the player will take less money or risk being cut. 

In this case, the perception created by the show didn’t mesh with reality.  Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation have told us that Dunn and Clemens knew that Clemens would be faced with the decision as to whether he’s accept less money or risk being cut, and that it had been a topic of discussion between Dunn and Tannenbaum for weeks.  Also, Dunn knew that the meeting would be occurring, and he knew the subject matter of it.  So did Clemens.

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Green sucks ass, so it will be a matter if Richardson impresses AND seems healthy that there would be any shot of Powell going anywhere.  I'm guessing that Powell is likely safe though, as he's a jack of all trades (but master of none) type.  While he may not measure up to each in individual skill sets, Powell is still ultimately the primary backup to both Johnson and Ivory, as they are such different players that if one were to get hurt, there's multiple things the other could not simply not handle doing, which Powell could.  The primary example of this, as you referenced, comes in the passing game, where Powell can contribute as both a blocker and receiver, something Ivory cannot do.

 

While CJ made it through the entire season last year, he's still coming off of an injury and combined with Ivory's long injury history, that's more incentive to keep around the healthy backup over another injured mess in Richardson.  The only other difference-maker I could see there is if they think Richardson has some real long-term potential.

While this is true, I can't see CJ, Ivory and Richardson getting hurt in the same season. All the injury talk surrounding CJ2k baffles me.  He's only missed one game in his career...6 years ago. He tore his meniscus in week three and played the next 13 games on it and still rushed for 1000 yards last year. Many say he lost a step because it was his lowest total of his career and he also just missed the 4 yards per carry mark by 0.1. I look at it as he did this on a bum knee that needed surgery 800 yards ago. 

 

Im simply not as concerned about the health of our backs. Ivory showed that he could play a hole season as well, though I can see your point with him based on his history. CJ has no injury history that has kepted him out of games or achieving 1000 yards on the year. 

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