Slow down the Andrew Luck hype train?

[Matt39]

As he 

prepares

 for his third season in the NFL, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts is already 

regarded

 as one of the league’s premier quarterbacks. ESPN’s Mike Sando polled 26 NFL front-office and scouting types 

this month

, asking them to sort every current starting quarterback into one of five tiers; Luck was in the top group, ranking fifth overall.

In terms of justifications, the Colts’ record under Luck speaks for itself. Since installing Luck as its starting QB before his rookie season of 2012, the team has won nearly 69 percent of its games (posting a pair of 11-5 campaigns). Luck also looks like a prototypical quarterback. At 6 feet 3 inches tall and 235 pounds, Luck’s size jibes far more with the preconceived notion of what an elite QB should look like than, say, Seattle’s Russell Wilson (who stands 5 feet 11 inches). Further, Sando’s scouts are probably the same people who regarded Luck as “

the top quarterback prospect to come along in the past 30 years

” when he was at Stanford. 

Research

 in psychology has shown that it’s incredibly difficult to alter people’s first impressions, so it might have taken a 

for scouts to change their opinions about Luck’s potential superstardom.

In terms of individual statistics, however, Luck 

has hardly been

 a top-five quarterback. 

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

 (ANY/A) — which quantifies a quarterback’s passing efficiency while taking into account his touchdown passes, interceptions and sacks – ranks Luck

18th in the NFL

 over the past two seasons. He 

finished 16th

 in 2013. By that measure, Luck hasn’t even been an average passer thus far in his career.

Depending on the stat or the scout, Luck is mediocre or good. Or great. Or average.

 

What’s going on?

Even by the standards of individual football statistics, ANY/A is a rough metric. It doesn’t account for strength of schedule, and it treats all yardage as equal regardless of the situation. Other metrics, like ESPN’s 

Total QBR

 (in which Luck ranked ninth a year ago) and 

Brian Burke’s

 

Expected Points Added

 (eighth) and 

Win Probability Added

 (sixth), regard Luck 

more highly

, suggesting that he’s performing well in QB rushing and clutch play, which conventional yardage-based passing metrics don’t effectively measure.

Indeed, Luck’s 

running game

 is often overlooked. In its 

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

 (DYAR) metric, Football Outsiders 

ranked

 Luck as the top rushing QB in the NFL last season. But even if we add Luck’s rushing DYAR to his passing tally over the past two seasons, he ranks 12th among quarterbacks in total value added above replacement.

The same goes for Pro Football Focus’s 

play-by-play grades

 — by their estimation, Luck was third among QBs in rushing value added above average. But those grades also rate Luck as barely better than an average QB as a passer. Again, if we combine passing and rushing (plus penalty avoidance) and convert those grades to assess 

value against replacement

 (instead of average), Luck has been the 14th-ranked quarterback over the past two seasons.

In both sets of value-over-replacement rankings, Luck narrowly places ahead of the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton, who makes for a particularly interesting point of comparison. Statistically, the two quarterbacks offered similar production a year ago, but their reputations couldn’t be more different. Luck is widely known as a “

winner

“; Newton has been dogged by criticism as a “

stat-padder

” who doesn’t deliver in big moments. Those sentiments probably played a large role when Sando’s execs placed Newton in the third tier despite having a quantitative résumé similar to Luck’s. Backing up that viewpoint, Christopher Price writes in Football Outsiders’ 

2014 Almanac

: “Newton is a very talented quarterback, but nobody in the league would take him over Andrew Luck right now.”

Of course, the biggest reason professed by the executives for their high placement of Luck was his team’s success despite a weak supporting cast, which gets at the fundamental limitations of evaluating individual NFL players with metrics and the eye test. “The evaluators think Luck has carried a subpar roster to a 22-10 record without much help,” Sando writes.

Football Outsiders has a great caveat about individual advanced stats that goes along these lines:

“In 2013, Andrew Luck had 650 DYAR. But what we are really saying is ‘In 2013, Andrew Luck, playing in Pep Hamilton’s offensive system with the Indianapolis offensive line blocking for him and Donald Brown and Trent Richardson providing rushing support, had 650 DYAR.’ “

The truth is that in football, perhaps more than any other sport, a player’s statistics depend greatly on the talent around him. And the common perception is that Luck’s supporting cast is similar to that which went 2-14 with Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins under center in 2011. That might not be entirely true, but it’s largely beyond our statistical capabilities to test assertions like those empirically.

We can attempt to measure the 

talent

 and 

experience level

 of isolated parts of an offense, but in the end we’re left with rough estimates. And what do we do if Luck’s early career ends up mirroring 

that of John Elway

 — a prestigious QB with surprisingly ordinary stats? We’ll be left wondering whether it was a coincidence if his stats jump when the 2024 versions of 

Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey

 come along. (Or think of Tom Brady, the 

poster child

 for a quarterback’s statistical production not matching his reputation … 

until Randy Moss arrived

in New England.)

So, in a certain sense, we still don’t know how good Luck is. He’s probably better than his raw efficiency rates suggest, but maybe he’s not quite as good as his top-tier ranking among NFL scouts and executives. It’s a fuzzy picture of individual value that NFL fans have to settle for while we wait for new ways to more effectively disentangle players’ contributions from one another.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-good-is-andrew-luck/

 

 

[Villain The Foe]

You can make numbers do anything you want them to do. Bottomline, The most important stat is wins and losses my friend. Luck wins football games. Do I think the hype train is a bit too loud...yes. But Andrew Luck wins football games. 

[Larz]

The truth is that in football, perhaps more than any other sport, a player’s statistics depend greatly on the talent around him

 

weapinz ?

[RutgersJetFan]

[Larz]

as a side note, how long has it been since a jets QB would show up in a top 20 stat ?

 

10 years ?

[New York Mick]

Can we trade Vick and Geno for him?

[Lupz27]

You can make numbers do anything you want them to do. Bottomline, The most important stat is wins and losses my friend. Luck wins football games. Do I think the hype train is a bit too loud...yes. But Andrew Luck wins football games.

"All I do is win win no matter what"

That's all that matters, end stats, save them for fantasy football opinions.

[Matt39]

"All I do is win win no matter what"

That's all that matters, end stats, save them for fantasy football opinions.

 

Wilson > Luck then?

[JetsFanInDenver]

I hope after reading this article the Colts realize they habe an awful QB on hand  and CUT him. Then the JETS can acquire him because we like to collect mediocre players.

[faba]

Take Luck out as Colt QB- and see what record they end up with

[Integrity28]

Take Luck out as Colt QB- and see what record they end up with

 

That was a 4 win team after all the injuries they had. IMO

[JustInFudge]

The AFC South sucks so some of his winning percentage is based on that but then dude had wins vs. 49'ers, Seahwaks and Broncos last year.  His stats arent astronomical but 23-9 TD vs. INT's is rock solid for a 2nd year player.  He's also had some injuries from a receiving perspective and a mediocre run game.  In terms of coming up big, that 2nd half vs. the Chiefs in playoffs. was unreal.  He was lights out.

 

Bottom line, the guy's really good and he's a baby.

[Obrien2Toon]

They are really wasting his talents with their power O BS.

[JohnnyLV]

Wilson > Luck then?

 

I have always thought so.

[Lupz27]

Wilson > Luck then?

Right now yea. Luck is 22-10, and set the record for most 4th quarter comebacks by a rookie with 7 so when he gets the same help from his D as Wilson has then we might revisit.

[GATA]

Take Luck out as Colt QB- and see what record they end up with

 

Touché

I like the kid I think his hype is justified. I take his over the overbearing nonsense the Tim Tebow wave was.

[Maxman]

Touché

I like the kid I think his hype is justified. I take his over the overbearing nonsense the Tim Tebow wave was.

 

Hi GATA.

 

I thought it was going to take a personal invite to get you posting again. Good thing it didn't come to that. That would be creepy.

[T0mShane]

That would be creepy.

When has that ever stopped you?

[Gastineau Lives]

When has that ever stopped you?

 

So true. By the way, Courtney doing a spot tomorrow, night?

[Maxman]

When has that ever stopped you?

 

It was more of a general observation and wasn't intended to be interpreted as meaning I would stop.

[Maxman]

So true. By the way, Courtney doing a spot tomorrow, night?

 

LOL.

[GATA]

Hi GATA.

I thought it was going to take a personal invite to get you posting again. Good thing it didn't come to that. That would be creepy.

Bahaha

[Larz]

so the jets play the colts in the PS opener

 

Luck will pick on milliner for the feel good opening drive TD so they can all go sit down and take their helmets off

 

and then we can all revisit this thread, lol

[jack48]

I have always thought so.

Maybe----I was thinking that Wilson had much better personnel around him but when you think about it, Wilson's receivers are not exactly a hall of fame collection. So, maybe.

[shawn306]

The AFC South sucks so some of his winning percentage is based on that but then dude had wins vs. 49'ers, Seahwaks and Broncos last year.  His stats arent astronomical but 23-9 TD vs. INT's is rock solid for a 2nd year player.  He's also had some injuries from a receiving perspective and a mediocre run game.  In terms of coming up big, that 2nd half vs. the Chiefs in playoffs. was unreal.  He was lights out.

 

Bottom line, the guy's really good and he's a baby.

 

 

Agreed....

 

The funny thing is is if Geno has a 23-9 TD vs INT to some people here would still be calling for his head.

[Jetsfan80]

Maybe----I was thinking that Wilson had much better personnel around him but when you think about it, Wilson's receivers are not exactly a hall of fame collection. So, maybe.

 

Wilson wasn't exactly the difference maker this postseason.  He more or less just "did enough".  He was awful against the Saints (9/18, 103 yards), got better against the Niners (16/25, 215, 1 TD) and then there was the Denver blowout where the whole team was simply dominant.  He's the NFL's best game manager, like an Alex Smith who takes more shots downfield.  He didn't throw any picks in the postseason so that's certainly a credit to him.

 

Luck, meanwhile, is the driving force behind ALL of Indy's successes.....and failures.  His team doesn't have the capability to win in spite of him.  If the Seahawks had lost that Saints game, we'd be talking about how awful a game Wilson had and why he's overrated. 

[dbatesman]

Agreed....

The funny thing is is if Geno has a 23-9 TD vs INT to some people here would still be calling for his head.

Between this and the Belichick thing, it's stunning how much hypothetical criticism our idiot fans throw at hypothetically talented guys in hypothetical situations.

[Jetsfan80]

Between this and the Belichick thing, it's stunning how much hypothetical criticism our idiot fans throw at hypothetically talented guys in hypothetical situations.

 

Pretty sure if we had a QB who went for 23 TD's and 9 INT's we'd be so deliriously happy we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves.

[Matt39]

Wilson is better than Luck imo. Regardless of what he's "asked" to do. Better pure passer.

[Sperm Edwards]

Wilson wasn't exactly the difference maker this postseason.  He more or less just "did enough".  He was awful against the Saints (9/18, 103 yards), got better against the Niners (16/25, 215, 1 TD) and then there was the Denver blowout where the whole team was simply dominant.  He's the NFL's best game manager, like an Alex Smith who takes more shots downfield.  He didn't throw any picks in the postseason so that's certainly a credit to him.

 

Luck, meanwhile, is the driving force behind ALL of Indy's successes.....and failures.  His team doesn't have the capability to win in spite of him.  If the Seahawks had lost that Saints game, we'd be talking about how awful a game Wilson had and why he's overrated. 

 

Not going to suggest he had his best day, but Seattle ran the ball 60% of the snaps, and Wilson was mostly asked to throw only when the D knew it was coming vs New Orleans. More than 3/4 of his attempts came on 2nd & long or 3rd & long, or 3rd and "not a running down" at least.  (This is the Carroll/Bevell strategy with the capabilities of their running game and their defense).  Note that Bevell doesn't call a lot of designed passes to his backs in the first place and it's not like they have had the Broncos or Bears (or even the Colts') receiving corps.

 

Plus it's hard to know why passes were incomplete just by looking at stats (an isolated game's stats at that).  Who knows how well they run their routes, or frankly who knows how well their receivers are even coached in the first place? They won the SB so everyone assumes everything they did is great, but objectively one has to know that's just ludicrous.

 

Wilson did fumble on his own 20 on the first play of the game vs SF. Like I was saying, you can't judge how a guy played purely from looking up his passing numbers. There's just more to it, particularly for one game.

 

Also when a QB converts 3rd & 22 on the 50 into a TD (15 yard pass, then a 35 yd TD pass on 4th & 7), entering the 4th quarter when the team is down by 4, he's capable of more than just game-managing. Game-managing is only throwing on 2nd & 5, 3rd & 3, and occasionally on 1st & 10 just for the sake of mixing it up a bit, and when he does it's largely making use of his backs. Barely over 10% of Seattle's passes went to their backs, which is pretty anti-game manager stuff. 

 

He throws infrequently because there's no need and because he's been so good at converting on drives where the backs leave them with 8-10 yards to go on 2nd or 3rd down and he's still completing passes at 60-70% on those downs despite under-utilizing his backs as receivers. He buys himself an awful lot of time to throw with his feet; Seattle's pass blocking was pretty bad.

 

I think you're severely underrating Wilson and are confusing what he's been asked to do (in terms of quantity of attempts) with what he's capable of doing.  Not that he doesn't make mistakes, because he does make them like anyone, but I think the kid is awesome and he's still just a baby in the league.  

[Jetsfan80]

Not going to suggest he had his best day, but Seattle ran the ball 60% of the snaps, and Wilson was mostly asked to throw only when the D knew it was coming vs New Orleans. More than 3/4 of his attempts came on 2nd & long or 3rd & long, or 3rd and "not a running down" at least.  (This is the Carroll/Bevell strategy with the capabilities of their running game and their defense).  Note that Bevell doesn't call a lot of designed passes to his backs in the first place and it's not like they have had the Broncos or Bears (or even the Colts') receiving corps.

 

Plus it's hard to know why passes were incomplete just by looking at stats (an isolated game's stats at that).  Who knows how well they run their routes, or frankly who knows how well their receivers are even coached in the first place? They won the SB so everyone assumes everything they did is great, but objectively one has to know that's just ludicrous.

 

Wilson did fumble on his own 20 on the first play of the game vs SF. Like I was saying, you can't judge how a guy played purely from looking up his passing numbers. There's just more to it, particularly for one game.

 

Also when a QB converts 3rd & 22 on the 50 into a TD (15 yard pass, then a 35 yd TD pass on 4th & 7), entering the 4th quarter when the team is down by 4, he's capable of more than just game-managing. Game-managing is only throwing on 2nd & 5, 3rd & 3, and occasionally on 1st & 10 just for the sake of mixing it up a bit, and when he does it's largely making use of his backs. Barely over 10% of Seattle's passes went to their backs, which is pretty anti-game manager stuff. 

 

He throws infrequently because there's no need and because he's been so good at converting on drives where the backs leave them with 8-10 yards to go on 2nd or 3rd down and he's still completing passes at 60-70% on those downs despite under-utilizing his backs as receivers. He buys himself an awful lot of time to throw with his feet; Seattle's pass blocking was pretty bad.

 

I think you're severely underrating Wilson and are confusing what he's been asked to do (in terms of quantity of attempts) with what he's capable of doing.  Not that he doesn't make mistakes, because he does make them like anyone, but I think the kid is awesome and he's still just a baby in the league.  

 

As I said, he's the best game manager in the league who also takes shots downfield.  Those aren't knocks.  I'm just saying I'd prefer to have Andrew Luck.  They're both two of the 5 or 10 most valuable players in the league to have right now so nothing wrong with either.

[Lizard King]

I'm but even going to pretend I bothered reading this. Andrew Luck is probably the Johnny Unitas of our day. Some articles are edgy, this article is idiotic.

[Sperm Edwards]

As I said, he's the best game manager in the league who also takes shots downfield.  Those aren't knocks.  I'm just saying I'd prefer to have Andrew Luck.  They're both two of the 5 or 10 most valuable players in the league to have right now so nothing wrong with either.

Then you missed my point completely. Let me put it another way: if Luck was on Seattle he'd be the best game manager in the league.

[slats]

Then you missed my point completely. Let me put it another way: if Luck was on Seattle he'd be the best game manager in the league.

Yeah, I actually think Wilson has the harder job only throwing on obvious passing downs the majority of the time. To maintain a passer rating above 100 when your opponent knows the pass is coming 90% of the time is damn impressive.

[Sperm Edwards]

Yeah, I actually think Wilson has the harder job only throwing on obvious passing downs the majority of the time. To maintain a passer rating above 100 when your opponent knows the pass is coming 90% of the time is damn impressive.

 

It's probably the best case for my least favorite, recent Jets QB being better than he seemed. The margin for error is smaller when you're getting 1.5 pass attempts per 1st-2nd-3rd down sequence instead of 2.  Of course that ignores the additional turnovers that would have occurred, but it still has some merit.

 

Even if a dumpoff is there for a sure 3-6 yards he has to pass up on the opportunity on 3rd & 10. When that's the situation, he's more likely to get sacked, throw an incomplete pass, or turn it over because he's not able to just play it safe without conceding the end of the drive.

 

Alex Smith passing on 2nd & 4 after Charles gets 6 yards on 1st down, or dumping it off to Charles on 1st & 10 ≠ WIlson passing on 3rd & 8 after Lynch got stuffed twice.

 

Game managers - the ones who are generally capable of only that - don't finish in the top 3 in the NFL in yards per completion.