Excelent rundown of the Harvin move

[CM28]

I thought this article was well written and went through all aspects of the trade really well. It made me reevaluate it a bit. It did cost us quite a bit of coin but I´m all for it just because it is the right thing to do from the Geno perspective. They need to now by the end of the year if he´s our guy or not. That for me makes this trade worth it every day of the week.

 

 

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2014/10/18/7001419/ny-jets-harvin-side-effects

 

 

The acquisition of Percy Harvin makes the NY Jets a better team than it was two days ago.  This is beyond dispute.  The ways in which it makes the Jets a better team are fairly obvious and have already been thoroughly discussed here and elsewhere.  This article isn't about that.  In this article we'll explore some of the ways in which the Harvin trade may have wide ranging side effects for the Jets and their personnel.  Let's start with a good, juicy conspiracy theory.

Rex Ryan

John Idzik intended to get Rex Ryan fired.  That was a theory.  I think this trade puts that theory to rest.  If Idzik wanted Rex fired he would certainly not have added a dynamic playmaker to the offense at this stage of the season.  It's true, playoff hopes are pretty much completely gone at this point; it's likely too late to salvage those.  It may be true that if Rex fails to make the playoffs he will be gone no matter how the Jets perform the rest of the way.  But given Woody Johnson's clear affection and respect for Rex Ryan, it is doubtful John Idzik is certain that is the case at this stage of the season.  If Idzik is not yet certain of Rex's fate, and he wants Rex fired, why on earth would he add a weapon of Harvin's caliber to the roster now?   Harvin cannot hurt the chances of this team the rest of the way, he can only help.  How much remains to be seen, but it makes little sense to theorize Idzik is deliberately trying to get Rex fired, and at the same time Idzik is spending $6.4 million this year, money he could have saved for next year and used on his own chosen head coach, to help Rex finish this season as strong as possible.  There was likely no other move available for Idzik to make at this late date that would have anything close to the impact Harvin has the potential to make with the 2014 Jets; why make this move that can only help Rex's chances of retaining his job?  If the unlikely happens and the Jets catch fire down the stretch and finish say 8-8 yet again, does anyone doubt Rex would have a decent chance of being brought back by an owner that has tremendous affection and respect for Rex?  How much would Idzik regret that effect if this were to unfold?  How much would he regret possibly saving Rex's job with the Harvin transaction?   Surely Idzik has thought this through if he really was ever angling to get Rex fired.  Surely having thought it through he would have concluded such a blockbuster move could only help Rex's chances of staying on.  Surely having thought that much about it, if Idzik really wanted Rex fired, he would never have agreed to the Harvin trade.   I just don't think there is any longer any credible argument to be made that John Idzik deliberately sabotaged Rex's season.  Conspiracy theories are fun, but this one has no legs.  Whatever the reason or reasons were for Idzik not spending more sooner, none of them included trying to get Rex fired.

Salary Cap

I'm going to assume for purposes of this article that after the 2014 season there are three possibilities: Harvin is on the Jets roster under the current terms of his contract in 2015;  Harvin is cut after the 2014 season;  or Harvin is traded after the 2014 season.   There is obviously a 4th possibility in that his contract could be restructured, but without knowing how he will perform the rest of this year, whether he will once again be injured, whether he would be amenable to a pay cut, whether he even wants to play for the Jets, and a host of other variables, it is nearly impossible to know what his salary might be in the event a restructure took place.  Consequently I'm going to keep this simple and just assume if Harvin  is on the 2015 Jets roster he will be paid $10.5 million for his services.

If Harvin is cut or traded prior to the start of the 2015 season, then the following consequences occur for the Jets.  First, the Jets will trade their 6th round choice in the 2015 draft to the Seattle Seahawks.  Second, the Jets will have spent $6.4 million (I'm going with Overthecap.com's numbers here, other sources say it's more like $7.1 million) in 2014 and received 9 games from Harvin.  Had the Jets never made this trade, that $6.4 million would have rolled over into the 2015 cap space and beyond, meaning that the cost of this trade in the event Harvin is not on the 2015 Jets roster will be a 6th round pick in the 2015 draft and whatever player or players could have been brought here in 2015 or a later year for the $6.4 million spent on Harvin.   The idea that this trade is without risk, or has a tiny cost of just a 6th round pick, is simply not true.  If Harvin is not on the 2015 Jets roster the cost is a 6th round pick AND some player or players that would have otherwise been signed for the $6.4 million Harvin cost.   That may or may not be worth 9 games of a Harvin tryout, but it is certainly not virtually costless.

If Harvin is on the opening day roster of the 2015 NY Jets, his entire $10.5 million base salary becomes guaranteed (this is true for the base salary of any veteran player on the opening day roster). In such an event, the cost of the Harvin trade goes up quite a bit.  It would then amount to the fourth round pick in the 2015 draft the Jets would owe the Seahawks, PLUS whatever players $16.9 million in 2015 cap space would be able to buy in 2015 and beyond.  All of the $6.4 million paid in 2015 PLUS the $10.5 million paid in 2015 comes off the cap if Harvin is here in 2015, and all of it could have been used for other players if he were never traded to the Jets.  So the Harvin trade, if he is a Jet in 2015, costs a 4th round pick and $16.9 million worth of other players that could have otherwise been signed had the trade never happened.  $16.9 million can buy quite a bit in other players.  As just an example, that kind of money could have netted the Jets Decker,Golden Tate, AND one of the two Kansas City guards on the market last offseason.  Is Harvin worth such a package, PLUS a 4th round draft pick?  I don't know, but this is far from a slam dunk great value move by Idzik.   The idea that this move was without risk basically ignores opportunity costs, otherwise known as what other players could we have gotten if the trade had never happened.  Maybe this was the best way to spend the cap dollars, but that is far from certain and this was hardly a risk free move.

Roster Structure

If Harvin performs well enough to be brought back in 2015, then John Idzik's two biggest moves will have been signing two wide receivers, Decker and Harvin.  Harvin will become the highest compensated Jet in 2015.  The Jets will have the 7th most cap space in the NFL tied up in wide receivers, behind the Cardinals, Lions, Dolphins, Redskins,Falcons and Texans.  One can certainly question whether this represents a sound structure for the Jets cap spending.  It would seem to all but preclude finding another good outside receiver for the Jets in free agency, as it is doubtful Idzik will seek to spend even more money on big contracts at the position.   One can question what this team has for that kind of money.  It is a curiously structured group of receivers, with Harvin, Kerley (if he is re-signed) and even Amaro all operating best out of the slot, while the team remains without a credible #2 outside receiver and a deep threat.  If Kerley is re-signed the Jets would likely jump to 5th on the list of wide receiver cap spending, yet it hardly seems the kind of group that justifies such lavish spending.  If Kerley is not re-signed, there remains a gaping hole at the #2 outside wide receiver position, with likely only the draft available to fill it.  Either way the group remains somewhat ill structured and unbalanced without a legitimate #2 outside wide receiver and deep threat, something you would not expect with such a high cap figure devoted to the position.

Jeremy Kerley

Jeremy Kerley is best suited to be a slot receiver.  Percy Harvin is best suited to be a slot receiver.  Percy Harvin is better than Jeremy Kerley.   Kerley is a free agent in 2015.  Kerley has largely disappeared from the Jets attack with the addition of Decker and the emergence of Amaro.  The addition of Harvin, if he remains a Jet in 2015, likely seals Kerley's fate as a Jet.  It seems unlikely the Jets will  make a strong effort to retain the services of an underpeforming slot receiver who fills many of the same roles as Harvin, only with less talent.  It seems likely that in 2015 either Kerley will be a Jet or Harvin will be a Jet, but not both.

Geno Smith

It has been noted that the Jets may have made this move in order to properly evaluate Geno Smith the rest of the season.  I'm not too sure about that theory, but at a minimum it certainly does remove the excuse that Geno has  no weapons to work with and therefore cannot be properly evaluated.  Another interesting side effect of the Harvin trade could be as follows.  If Harvin lives up to the Jets' best hopes and lights a fire under the Jets offense he could mean the difference between Rex staying another year and Rex getting fired.  If the Jets were to somehow mount something like a 7-2 run to end the season and finish 8-8, that might well be enough to save Rex's job, especially if the offense finally looks like it's NFL quality.  If Rex stays, Marty Mornhinweg stays, and Geno might well get another year based on a presumably strong finish.  If the Harvin trade does not work as planned and the Jets fail to finish strong, Rex and Marty will likely both be fired, and whoever comes in to coach next year will almost certainly want to choose his own quarterback.  Thus Harvin, if he performs really well, could conceivably save the jobs of the entire coaching staff and Geno Smith.  I leave it to you to decide if any or all of those things would be good or bad effects.

The Nature of the Offense

The Jets for Rex's entire tenure have been a run first, ground and pound team.  With Harvin coming aboard and a rather large chunk of the cap being devoted to the wide receiver position, it would make very little sense for that to continue.  You don't spend lavishly on the passing attack and then make it an afterthought in the offense.  If Harvin remains a Jet in 2015 and beyond, the Jets almost certainly will be sporting a brand new, modern pass first attack.  Whether Geno, Rex, Marty or anyone else is still here or not, if Harvin remains, the Jets will be passing the ball, a lot.  If Geno is deemed not to be the answer, then we should expect the Jets to either try to swing a trade for a quarterback they believe could lead such an attack, or select a quarterback early in the 2015 draft.  Continuing the current run first approach seems counterproductive and highly unlikely if Harvin is retained beyond this year.   Consequently, finding a quarterback who can run a modern passing attack would seem to be of the highest priority.

John Idzik

There are so many moving parts to the effects this deal may have on the Jets.  From the structure of the Jets cap to the nature of the offense to the fates of Rex, Marty, Geno and Kerley, this deal feels like the first fateful move John Idzik has made.  If Harvin fails Idzik will have lost a low round pick and $6.4 million of cap space; not great for 9 games, but not devastating.  However, the Jets will likely have also lost Rex, Marty and the entire coaching staff, Geno Smith, and any pretense of not still being in rebuilding mode three years into Idzik's tenure in 2015.  That is a fairly dangerous position for a GM to be in three years in.  If on the other hand Harvin succeeds, Idzik will have lost a 4th round draft pick and $16.9 million in cap space that could have been spent on several other very good players, and very likely will have lost Jeremy Kerley, while gaining a dynamic playmaking, if injury prone, receiver.  Harvin may conceivably also save the jobs of the entire current coaching staff, and if he stays beyond 2014 Harvin very likely will usher in a new pass happy Jets offense, as well as very possibly a new quarterback to run it.  This trade portends so many possible consequences, good and bad, that it really feels like it could mark a turning point in John Idzik's career.  The volatile, dynamic, injury prone, playmaking enigma that is Percy Harvin could well be the butterfly that flaps its wings and sets in motion a whirlwind in Jetsville.

[Clementi49]

That was terrible. We got Percy Harvin. Period. Who cares about any of that. Why would anyone need to read into every small detail? It's football. It's a game. Let it play out and enjoy the fact the Jets did something good for once this season.

[FidelioJet]

That was terrible. We got Percy Harvin. Period. Who cares about any of that. Why would anyone need to read into every small detail? It's football. It's a game. Let it play out and enjoy the fact the Jets did something good for once this season.

Because there is more to it than we simply got a good football player.  Paying $7mm to pick up a WR on a 1-6 win team (that you have no intention of keeping after this year) is about as a bad a "football" decision as anyone can make.  Unless they plan to pay him the $10mm next year (or KNOW he will restructure) this deal makes ZERO sense.  

 

This is so clearly a Woody move - Woody not supporting his GM and demanding this bad trade to calm the media and fold to public pressure.

[CM28]

That was terrible. We got Percy Harvin. Period. Who cares about any of that. Why would anyone need to read into every small detail? It's football. It's a game. Let it play out and enjoy the fact the Jets did something good for once this season.

 

Sure that is one way to see it and i respect that. For me that is only true a few hours a week, when the game is on I will be pumped that we have additional talent, after that it´s all about analysing the roster and what ways to improve until next week / next year. And I guess a lot of folks will agree with me, otherwise it would be a very boring site, no? Never understood those who only focus on the result of the last game and complain about it and the HC/QB/GM and owner without actually have an own idea of how to get better.

 

What I especially liked about this article was that it highlighted all aspects of the trade. Then it´s for you to take whatever you want from it going forward. But at least you can´t say anymore that we only gave up a 6th at the worst. We gave up quite a bit of flexibility  for 2015 also.

[CM28]

Because there is more to it than we simply got a good football player.  Paying $7mm to pick up a WR on a 1-6 win team (that you have no intention of keeping after this year) is about as a bad a "football" decision as anyone can make.  Unless they plan to pay him the $10mm next year (or KNOW he will restructure) this deal makes ZERO sense.  

 

This is so clearly a Woody move - Woody not supporting his GM and demanding this bad trade to calm the media and fold to public pressure.

 

If this was the case, it clearly worked. I´ve read numerous comments of people saying they can´t beleive how pumped they are for the bills game, i.e. tickets sold, merch sold.

[FidelioJet]

Sure that is one way to see it and i respect that. For me that is only true a few hours a week, when the game is on I will be pumped that we have additional talent, after that it´s all about analysing the roster and what ways to improve until next week / next year. And I guess a lot of folks will agree with me, otherwise it would be a very boring site, no? Never understood those who only focus on the result of the last game and complain about it and the HC/QB/GM and owner without actually have an own idea of how to get better.

 

What I especially liked about this article was that it highlighted all aspects of the trade. Then it´s for you to take whatever you want from it going forward. But at least you can´t say anymore that we only gave up a 6th at the worst. We gave up quite a bit of flexibility  for 2015 also.

Agreed.  I liked the article a lot and also agree that talent evaluation certainly comes into play here - but I've seen nothing in Geno that tells me he's going to be better with Harvin.  Hopefuly, Rex, MM and Idzik see something different and this sparks the kid...

 

But yes most of us that were in the Idzik has a plan camp - are a little disappointed in this move as I wanted to keep the money rolled over to next year and not make any rash moves.  Now, if Idzik believes he was going to have to pay $10mm for a receiver next year and this was the best he was going to do (we def. needed to upgrade anyway) then I'm all for the trade.  But $7mm to evaluate Geno is way too much - that's the job of a GM, evaluate talent and make hard decisions.

[FidelioJet]

If this was the case, it clearly worked. I´ve read numerous comments of people saying they can´t beleive how pumped they are for the bills game, i.e. tickets sold, merch sold.

I'm sure it would work but if he's not on the team next year it's a setback for the NYJ organization and harmful to the chances of building a competitive team.

[CM28]

Agreed.  I liked the article a lot and also agree that talent evaluation certainly comes into play here - but I've seen nothing in Geno that tells me he's going to be better with Harvin.  Hopefuly, Rex, MM and Idzik see something different and this sparks the kid...

 

But yes most of us that were in the Idzik has a plan camp - are a little disappointed in this move as I wanted to keep the money rolled over to next year and not make any rash moves.  Now, if Idzik believes he was going to have to pay $10mm for a receiver next year and this was the best he was going to do (we def. needed to upgrade anyway) then I'm all for the trade.  But $7mm to evaluate Geno is way too much - that's the job of a GM, evaluate talent and make hard decisions.

 

Yes of course it has to be more than just evaluate Geno. But even if that was the case I wouldn´t complain since that is one of the two most important questions going into the offseason. Will he be our guy next year and will Rex survive the axe once again?

[CM28]

I'm sure it would work but if he's not on the team next year it's a setback for the NYJ organization and harmful to the chances of building a competitive team.

 

Yeah if they cut him and can´t get him back on a new deal or doesn´t want him back, that would be a big setback money wise. Not so much else. On the flip side, they should have an answer on Geno at least.

[FidelioJet]

Yeah if they cut him and can´t get him back on a new deal or doesn´t want him back, that would be a big setback money wise. Not so much else. On the flip side, they should have an answer on Geno at least.

 

This is assuming Idzik is still up in the air on Geno - and that he believes he needs to give him one more weapon to properly evaluate his talent.

 

That is kind of worrisome to me - The GM of an NFL football should not require 9 more games with one more receivers to make that determination.

 

Sorry, but I've been a HUGE Idzik supporter but this move makes little sense to me (unless it's a Woody move or Idzik plans to keep him - and I can't imagine paying 10mm a year for Harvin.

[CM28]

This is assuming Idzik is still up in the air on Geno - and that he believes he needs to give him one more weapon to properly evaluate his talent.

 

That is kind of worrisome to me - The GM of an NFL football should not require 9 more games with one more receivers to make that determination.

 

Sorry, but I've been a HUGE Idzik supporter but this move makes little sense to me (unless it's a Woody move or Idzik plans to keep him - and I can't imagine paying 10mm a year for Harvin.

 

I do assume that he is still uncertain, that is a part of the deal that make sence for me, if true. But that and the future of Harvin is for us to speculate on and for Idzik to show when that time comes around. One thing is clear, it will be a most interesting offseason.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Yeah if they cut him and can´t get him back on a new deal or doesn´t want him back, that would be a big setback money wise. Not so much else. On the flip side, they should have an answer on Geno at least.

 

Harvin's salary isn't guaranteed past this year. If he blows donkey dick or gets hurt with a big injury or kills someone the Jets are on the hook for $0 if they just cut him. They're out on the 6th round pick. In no scenario does it make sense to cut him without a plan in place for resigning him right away or just letting him walk away without the intent for resigning him.

 

If Harvin is awesome and they want to keep him then the Jets have about 16-17 million in cap space that's still transferring over and they have about 13 million coming off the books from dead money (according to overthecap). Explain to me why the Jets can't carry a 10 million cap charge on Harvin? If they want to lower the cap hit, there's this magical thing gms can do called restructuring a contract. 

[Larz]

worst case scenario, we have a new guy to hate !

[CM28]

Harvin's salary isn't guaranteed past this year. If he blows donkey dick or gets hurt with a big injury or kills someone the Jets are on the hook for $0 if they just cut him. They're out on the 6th round pick. In no scenario does it make sense to cut him without a plan in place for resigning him right away or just letting him walk away without the intent for resigning him.

 

If Harvin is awesome and they want to keep him then the Jets have about 16-17 million in cap space that's still transferring over and they have about 13 million coming off the books from dead money (according to overthecap). Explain to me why the Jets can't carry a 10 million cap charge on Harvin? If they want to lower the cap hit, there's this magical thing gms can do called restructuring a contract. 

 

Yes I am fully aware that we aren´t on the hook for anything if they decide to cut him. My point was that we could have carried the salary for 2014 into next season (6-7mil) as well. That is for me the worst part. But as I´ve said before, worth it if that is what they need in order to make a decision on Geno. 

 

I hope they will find a way to restructure his deal if they want to keep him.

[T0mShane]

Yes I am fully aware that we aren´t on the hook for anything if they decide to cut him. My point was that we could have carried the salary for 2014 into next season (6-7mil) as well. That is for me the worst part. But as I´ve said before, worth it if that is what they need in order to make a decision on Geno.

I hope they will find a way to restructure his deal if they want to keep him.

*** EDIT CHRONOLOGICAL ERROR***

Harvin isn't going to play with no guaranteed money backing him up next year, and his value is at an all-time low, so Idzik has all the leverage here unless Harvin returns 5 kicks for TDs the rest of the way.

As for how this impacts Geno and Rex, Idzik knows what he has in both. Harvin, while he's a nice complementary piece, isn't a transformative offense player that's going to raise Geno's completion percentage by ten points.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Idzik negotiated Harvin's Seattle contract, so I'm pretty confident

Larz. Please.

[CM28]

Idzik negotiated Harvin's Seattle contract, so I'm pretty confident he knows what it'll take to restructure him at this point. Harvin isn't going to play with no guaranteed money backing him up next year, and his value is at an all-time low, so Idzik has all the leverage here unless Harvin returns 5 kicks for TDs the rest of the way.

As for how this impacts Geno and Rex, Idzik knows what he has in both. Harvin, while he's a nice complementary piece, isn't a transformative offense player that's going to raise Geno's completion percentage by ten points.

 

Sure that is probably right. Then you´ll have to add the X factor of the players mind. Maybe he has another idea of his worth and where his future should be. Hopefully this is a non issue.

 

He should know where he has Rex but are you sure he has already decided what to do with Geno? I have to trust you there, haven´t seen enough of Harvin myself to judge but it should go up just based on quality improvement and the fact that the coverage he will draw away from Decker & Co.

[Larz]

Larz. Please.

 

so now I'm the idzk lover.   great

 

I just hate whining.  that's all it is.  and lazy scapegoating, that too

[T0mShane]

Larz. Please.

LOLIOKIOOLOL

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

so now I'm the idzk lover.   great

 

I just hate whining.  that's all it is.  and lazy scapegoating, that too

I'm an Idzik fan. I just don't think it's especially likely that he negotiated Harvin's Seattle contract while he was our GM.

[T0mShane]

Sure that is probably right. Then you´ll have to add the X factor of the players mind. Maybe he has another idea of his worth and where his future should be. Hopefully this is a non issue.

He should know where he has Rex but are you sure he has already decided what to do with Geno? I have to trust you there, haven´t seen enough of Harvin myself to judge but it should go up just based on quality improvement and the fact that the coverage he will draw away from Decker & Co.

What's interesting with Harvin is that he's won titles on every level--HS, college, and pro. I'm sure he'll help the team, but I don't think he helps it enough to turn Geno into a lock NFL starter by the end of the year.

[Integrity28]

I feel like someone said all these things right after the trade happened.

[T0mShane]

I'm an Idzik fan. I just don't think it's especially likely that he negotiated Harvin's Seattle contract while he was our GM.

Oh sh*t. My bad

[Larz]

I'm an Idzik fan. I just don't think it's especially likely that he negotiated Harvin's Seattle contract while he was our GM.

 

ok now I'm confused. 

 

LOLIOKIOOLOL

 

should have waited another minute bro, lol

[T0mShane]

ok now I'm confused.

should have waited another minute bro, lol

I screwed up, Larz. I made a mistake. I'm just a man.

[Larz]

I screwed up, Larz. I made a mistake. I'm just a man.

 

I just can't wait to see how this all makes me look dumb, lol

[T0mShane]

I just can't wait to see how this all makes me look dumb, lol

You're in the clear on this one, my friend

[Larz]

You're in the clear on this one, my friend

 

maybe.  just waiting for the other shoe to drop as they say.

[T0mShane]

maybe. just waiting for the other shoe to drop as they say.

MissLonelyHearts, in his subtle way, cleaned it out pretty thoroughly. I don't think we have to worry about sniper fire

[Larz]

MissLonelyHearts, in his subtle way, cleaned it out pretty thoroughly. I don't think we have to worry about sniper fire

 

 

lol

[slats]

Because there is more to it than we simply got a good football player.  Paying $7mm to pick up a WR on a 1-6 win team (that you have no intention of keeping after this year) is about as a bad a "football" decision as anyone can make.  Unless they plan to pay him the $10mm next year (or KNOW he will restructure) this deal makes ZERO sense.  

 

This is so clearly a Woody move - Woody not supporting his GM and demanding this bad trade to calm the media and fold to public pressure.

  

No, I really think this is an Idzik move. He likes acquiring talented guys with injury histories that he can get a little cheaper. Ivory for a fourth, Milliner slipping in the draft a bit. The guy likes value. I also think it's highly unlikely that he plays here next year under his current deal.

*** EDIT CHRONOLOGICAL ERROR***

Harvin isn't going to play with no guaranteed money backing him up next year, and his value is at an all-time low, so Idzik has all the leverage here unless Harvin returns 5 kicks for TDs the rest of the way.

As for how this impacts Geno and Rex, Idzik knows what he has in both. Harvin, while he's a nice complementary piece, isn't a transformative offense player that's going to raise Geno's completion percentage by ten points.

Well, Harvin signed a contract that left him without guaranteed money the rest of the way, and I think he'd be pleased as punch to make it to opening day next season under his current deal (when his 2015 salary would become guaranteed), but I don't think it's gonna happen, either. Harvin's stock has fallen. A lot. He may not want to even play for the Jets, but if he wants to get paid, the Jets are probably his best option - even when Idzik comes at him with a straight up pay cut. Unless he blows up over the next nine games, and is a locker room gem in the process, he's probably not going to be a huge draw in free agency. I think Idzik will want to lock him up for less than what he's paying Decker, and I think he'll be able to do it, too. The reality is that he's just unlikely to have great stats the rest of the way in this offense with Geno throwing him the ball.

As for Rex, the author is making suppositions based on a possible 7-2 finish down the stretch. Some of our more optimistic fans were talking about such a finish (or better) before the Jets picked up Harvin. The schedule does soften up. Is it possible? Yeah, maybe. In that somewhat unlikely scenario, I think the writer is correct when he says it might be tough to fire Rex. The owner still loves him. And philosophically, I've always said that Idzik and Ryan want the same kind of team, with strong defense and a running game being at the core.

That said, I still think it's unlikely that Rex is retained.

[JerryK]

What I love about the article as that we might just get lucky and go 8-8! 

 

 

"..and with the 15th selection in every round of the 2015 draft, the Jets select:  Nevaherdovim Gonasuk, from the University of Southern North Dakota"

[T0mShane]

No, I really think this is an Idzik move. He likes acquiring talented guys with injury histories that he can get a little cheaper. Ivory for a fourth, Milliner slipping in the draft a bit. The guy likes value. I also think it's highly unlikely that he plays here next year under his current deal.

Well, Harvin signed a contract that left him without guaranteed money the rest of the way, and I think he'd be pleased as punch to make it to opening day next season under his current deal (when his 2015 salary would become guaranteed), but I don't think it's gonna happen, either. Harvin's stock has fallen. A lot. He may not want to even play for the Jets, but if he wants to get paid, the Jets are probably his best option - even when Idzik comes at him with a straight up pay cut. Unless he blows up over the next nine games, and is a locker room gem in the process, he's probably not going to be a huge draw in free agency. I think Idzik will want to lock him up for less than what he's paying Decker, and I think he'll be able to do it, too. The reality is that he's just unlikely to have great stats the rest of the way in this offense with Geno throwing him the ball.

As for Rex, the author is making suppositions based on a possible 7-2 finish down the stretch. Some of our more optimistic fans were talking about such a finish (or better) before the Jets picked up Harvin. The schedule does soften up. Is it possible? Yeah, maybe. In that somewhat unlikely scenario, I think the writer is correct when he says it might be tough to fire Rex. The owner still loves him. And philosophically, I've always said that Idzik and Ryan want the same kind of team, with strong defense and a running game being at the core.

That said, I still think it's unlikely that Rex is retained.

At this point, literally the only way Rex is retained is if Woody sweeps in at the end and asserts Executive Privilege, in which case Idzik should quit and the franchise should be contracted.

[jorge o8]

Agreed.  I liked the article a lot and also agree that talent evaluation certainly comes into play here - but I've seen nothing in Geno that tells me he's going to be better with Harvin.  Hopefuly, Rex, MM and Idzik see something different and this sparks the kid...

 

But yes most of us that were in the Idzik has a plan camp - are a little disappointed in this move as I wanted to keep the money rolled over to next year and not make any rash moves.  Now, if Idzik believes he was going to have to pay $10mm for a receiver next year and this was the best he was going to do (we def. needed to upgrade anyway) then I'm all for the trade.  But $7mm to evaluate Geno is way too much - that's the job of a GM, evaluate talent and make hard decisions.

how can it not help Geno teams have to be aware of Harvin it would help Decker, Amaro and the run game. you are going to have somebody open

[CM28]

What's interesting with Harvin is that he's won titles on every level--HS, college, and pro. I'm sure he'll help the team, but I don't think he helps it enough to turn Geno into a lock NFL starter by the end of the year.

 

Then at least Geno has no excuses about targets and we can safely go on to the next project or FA QB.