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Excelent rundown of the Harvin move


CM28
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At this point, literally the only way Rex is retained is if Woody sweeps in at the end and asserts Executive Privilege, in which case Idzik should quit and the franchise should be contracted.

I truly hope you've convinced yourself of this. That will make the fallout from the announcement that Rex is being retained all the more glorious.

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Slats' text took the last of it.

 

It's like your Edmond Dantes and you went to bed one night after your second straight AFCCCG loss with big promises heading into the next year, only to wake up with everyone you love dead or gone and Mark Sanchez is f*cking your wife.  Except this time, while you may get revenge on Mark, there's no rebirth, fortune or nubile beauty, it's just Slats' phone call telling you that there's more pain...and despair. Forever. 

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It's like your Edmond Dantes and you went to bed one night after your second straight AFCCCG loss with big promises heading into the next year, only to wake up with everyone you love dead or gone and Mark Sanchez is f*cking your wife. Except this time, while you may get revenge on Mark, there's no rebirth, fortune or nubile beauty, it's just Slats' phone call telling you that there's more pain...and despair. Forever.

I would be ok with Mark Sanchez banging my wife. The key to a good relationship is finding good side pieces.

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It's like your Edmond Dantes and you went to bed one night after your second straight AFCCCG loss with big promises heading into the next year, only to wake up with everyone you love dead or gone and Mark Sanchez is f*cking your wife. Except this time, while you may get revenge on Mark, there's no rebirth, fortune or nubile beauty, it's just Slats' phone call telling you that there's more pain...and despair. Forever.

Nice, but who is Danglars?

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If Harvin is on the opening day roster of the 2015 NY Jets, his entire $10.5 million base salary becomes guaranteed (this is true for the base salary of any veteran player on the opening day roster). In such an event, the cost of the Harvin trade goes up quite a bit.  It would then amount to the fourth round pick in the 2015 draft the Jets would owe the Seahawks, PLUS whatever players $16.9 million in 2015 cap space would be able to buy in 2015 and beyond. $16.9 million can buy quite a bit in other players.  As just an example, that kind of money could have netted the Jets Decker,Golden Tate, AND one of the two Kansas City guards on the market last offseason.

 

So THIS is what being fiscally responsible and not mortgaging the future for the present looks like. Ah! Now I get it! So much different than Tannenbaum. So much different.

Edited by stoicsentry
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No one knew that they would be hurt before the fact. It's really as simple as: going into the season, would you rather have Decker, Tate and one of those guards or just Harvin? The answer is obvious.

You're really saying that we should have given Golden Tate $7 mil per year, and in the same breat criticizing John Idzik?

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So THIS is what being fiscally responsible and not mortgaging the future for the present looks like. Ah! Now I get it! So much different than Tannenbaum. So much different.

 

I agree, this move is going against everything Idzik has done to date.  This moves seems like it's straight out of the Woody Johnson playbook.

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I think the Harvin trade allowing evaluation for Geno through the next 9 games is more of a bonus or side affect. One would think that this trade is an attempt to upgrade an offense that needs upgrading with no guarantee a WR like this will be available next year via FA, Trade, or the draft (which is always a crap shoot especially with WRs taking years to develop). But for CM28 and the article there is still some weight to Idzik not giving Ryan much of a chance this year since this move while could help Ryan survive has been done with a start of 1 and 6 and no matter how easy the schedule is already buries Ryan especially if internally he needed to make the playoffs to stay. But, I won't say Idzik really did that since if Milliner, Patterson, and Mcdougle all worked out instead of all didn't dur to injury and Patterson's insubordination, then the D would have been a much different secondary that would have probably netter us a few more wins.  

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I think the Harvin trade allowing evaluation for Geno through the next 9 games is more of a bonus or side affect. One would think that this trade is an attempt to upgrade an offense that needs upgrading with no guarantee a WR like this will be available next year via FA, Trade, or the draft (which is always a crap shoot especially with WRs taking years to develop). But for CM28 and the article there is still some weight to Idzik not giving Ryan much of a chance this year since this move while could help Ryan survive has been done with a start of 1 and 6 and no matter how easy the schedule is already buries Ryan especially if internally he needed to make the playoffs to stay. But, I won't say Idzik really did that since if Milliner, Patterson, and Mcdougle all worked out instead of all didn't dur to injury and Patterson's insubordination, then the D would have been a much different secondary that would have probably netter us a few more wins.  

 

I read this several times and still don´t get it. Sorry but please explain if you were talking to me. :)

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What´s the latest? Haven´t seen anything new today.

 

they would have cut him if they couldn't trade him, which makes them look better to the fans and players upset about the trade because at least they got something for him after giving up 3 picks

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I thought this article was well written and went through all aspects of the trade really well. It made me reevaluate it a bit. It did cost us quite a bit of coin but I´m all for it just because it is the right thing to do from the Geno perspective. They need to now by the end of the year if he´s our guy or not. That for me makes this trade worth it every day of the week.

 

 

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2014/10/18/7001419/ny-jets-harvin-side-effects

 

 

The acquisition of Percy Harvin makes the NY Jets a better team than it was two days ago.  This is beyond dispute.  The ways in which it makes the Jets a better team are fairly obvious and have already been thoroughly discussed here and elsewhere.  This article isn't about that.  In this article we'll explore some of the ways in which the Harvin trade may have wide ranging side effects for the Jets and their personnel.  Let's start with a good, juicy conspiracy theory.

Rex Ryan

John Idzik intended to get Rex Ryan fired.  That was a theory.  I think this trade puts that theory to rest.  If Idzik wanted Rex fired he would certainly not have added a dynamic playmaker to the offense at this stage of the season.  It's true, playoff hopes are pretty much completely gone at this point; it's likely too late to salvage those.  It may be true that if Rex fails to make the playoffs he will be gone no matter how the Jets perform the rest of the way.  But given Woody Johnson's clear affection and respect for Rex Ryan, it is doubtful John Idzik is certain that is the case at this stage of the season.  If Idzik is not yet certain of Rex's fate, and he wants Rex fired, why on earth would he add a weapon of Harvin's caliber to the roster now?   Harvin cannot hurt the chances of this team the rest of the way, he can only help.  How much remains to be seen, but it makes little sense to theorize Idzik is deliberately trying to get Rex fired, and at the same time Idzik is spending $6.4 million this year, money he could have saved for next year and used on his own chosen head coach, to help Rex finish this season as strong as possible.  There was likely no other move available for Idzik to make at this late date that would have anything close to the impact Harvin has the potential to make with the 2014 Jets; why make this move that can only help Rex's chances of retaining his job?  If the unlikely happens and the Jets catch fire down the stretch and finish say 8-8 yet again, does anyone doubt Rex would have a decent chance of being brought back by an owner that has tremendous affection and respect for Rex?  How much would Idzik regret that effect if this were to unfold?  How much would he regret possibly saving Rex's job with the Harvin transaction?   Surely Idzik has thought this through if he really was ever angling to get Rex fired.  Surely having thought it through he would have concluded such a blockbuster move could only help Rex's chances of staying on.  Surely having thought that much about it, if Idzik really wanted Rex fired, he would never have agreed to the Harvin trade.   I just don't think there is any longer any credible argument to be made that John Idzik deliberately sabotaged Rex's season.  Conspiracy theories are fun, but this one has no legs.  Whatever the reason or reasons were for Idzik not spending more sooner, none of them included trying to get Rex fired.

Salary Cap

I'm going to assume for purposes of this article that after the 2014 season there are three possibilities: Harvin is on the Jets roster under the current terms of his contract in 2015;  Harvin is cut after the 2014 season;  or Harvin is traded after the 2014 season.   There is obviously a 4th possibility in that his contract could be restructured, but without knowing how he will perform the rest of this year, whether he will once again be injured, whether he would be amenable to a pay cut, whether he even wants to play for the Jets, and a host of other variables, it is nearly impossible to know what his salary might be in the event a restructure took place.  Consequently I'm going to keep this simple and just assume if Harvin  is on the 2015 Jets roster he will be paid $10.5 million for his services.

If Harvin is cut or traded prior to the start of the 2015 season, then the following consequences occur for the Jets.  First, the Jets will trade their 6th round choice in the 2015 draft to the Seattle Seahawks.  Second, the Jets will have spent $6.4 million (I'm going with Overthecap.com's numbers here, other sources say it's more like $7.1 million) in 2014 and received 9 games from Harvin.  Had the Jets never made this trade, that $6.4 million would have rolled over into the 2015 cap space and beyond, meaning that the cost of this trade in the event Harvin is not on the 2015 Jets roster will be a 6th round pick in the 2015 draft and whatever player or players could have been brought here in 2015 or a later year for the $6.4 million spent on Harvin.   The idea that this trade is without risk, or has a tiny cost of just a 6th round pick, is simply not true.  If Harvin is not on the 2015 Jets roster the cost is a 6th round pick AND some player or players that would have otherwise been signed for the $6.4 million Harvin cost.   That may or may not be worth 9 games of a Harvin tryout, but it is certainly not virtually costless.

If Harvin is on the opening day roster of the 2015 NY Jets, his entire $10.5 million base salary becomes guaranteed (this is true for the base salary of any veteran player on the opening day roster). In such an event, the cost of the Harvin trade goes up quite a bit.  It would then amount to the fourth round pick in the 2015 draft the Jets would owe the Seahawks, PLUS whatever players $16.9 million in 2015 cap space would be able to buy in 2015 and beyond.  All of the $6.4 million paid in 2015 PLUS the $10.5 million paid in 2015 comes off the cap if Harvin is here in 2015, and all of it could have been used for other players if he were never traded to the Jets.  So the Harvin trade, if he is a Jet in 2015, costs a 4th round pick and $16.9 million worth of other players that could have otherwise been signed had the trade never happened.  $16.9 million can buy quite a bit in other players.  As just an example, that kind of money could have netted the Jets Decker,Golden Tate, AND one of the two Kansas City guards on the market last offseason.  Is Harvin worth such a package, PLUS a 4th round draft pick?  I don't know, but this is far from a slam dunk great value move by Idzik.   The idea that this move was without risk basically ignores opportunity costs, otherwise known as what other players could we have gotten if the trade had never happened.  Maybe this was the best way to spend the cap dollars, but that is far from certain and this was hardly a risk free move.

Roster Structure

If Harvin performs well enough to be brought back in 2015, then John Idzik's two biggest moves will have been signing two wide receivers, Decker and Harvin.  Harvin will become the highest compensated Jet in 2015.  The Jets will have the 7th most cap space in the NFL tied up in wide receivers, behind the CardinalsLionsDolphinsRedskins,Falcons and Texans.  One can certainly question whether this represents a sound structure for the Jets cap spending.  It would seem to all but preclude finding another good outside receiver for the Jets in free agency, as it is doubtful Idzik will seek to spend even more money on big contracts at the position.   One can question what this team has for that kind of money.  It is a curiously structured group of receivers, with Harvin, Kerley (if he is re-signed) and even Amaro all operating best out of the slot, while the team remains without a credible #2 outside receiver and a deep threat.  If Kerley is re-signed the Jets would likely jump to 5th on the list of wide receiver cap spending, yet it hardly seems the kind of group that justifies such lavish spending.  If Kerley is not re-signed, there remains a gaping hole at the #2 outside wide receiver position, with likely only the draft available to fill it.  Either way the group remains somewhat ill structured and unbalanced without a legitimate #2 outside wide receiver and deep threat, something you would not expect with such a high cap figure devoted to the position.

Jeremy Kerley

Jeremy Kerley is best suited to be a slot receiver.  Percy Harvin is best suited to be a slot receiver.  Percy Harvin is better than Jeremy Kerley.   Kerley is a free agent in 2015.  Kerley has largely disappeared from the Jets attack with the addition of Decker and the emergence of Amaro.  The addition of Harvin, if he remains a Jet in 2015, likely seals Kerley's fate as a Jet.  It seems unlikely the Jets will  make a strong effort to retain the services of an underpeforming slot receiver who fills many of the same roles as Harvin, only with less talent.  It seems likely that in 2015 either Kerley will be a Jet or Harvin will be a Jet, but not both.

Geno Smith

It has been noted that the Jets may have made this move in order to properly evaluate Geno Smith the rest of the season.  I'm not too sure about that theory, but at a minimum it certainly does remove the excuse that Geno has  no weapons to work with and therefore cannot be properly evaluated.  Another interesting side effect of the Harvin trade could be as follows.  If Harvin lives up to the Jets' best hopes and lights a fire under the Jets offense he could mean the difference between Rex staying another year and Rex getting fired.  If the Jets were to somehow mount something like a 7-2 run to end the season and finish 8-8, that might well be enough to save Rex's job, especially if the offense finally looks like it's NFL quality.  If Rex stays, Marty Mornhinweg stays, and Geno might well get another year based on a presumably strong finish.  If the Harvin trade does not work as planned and the Jets fail to finish strong, Rex and Marty will likely both be fired, and whoever comes in to coach next year will almost certainly want to choose his own quarterback.  Thus Harvin, if he performs really well, could conceivably save the jobs of the entire coaching staff and Geno Smith.  I leave it to you to decide if any or all of those things would be good or bad effects.

The Nature of the Offense

The Jets for Rex's entire tenure have been a run first, ground and pound team.  With Harvin coming aboard and a rather large chunk of the cap being devoted to the wide receiver position, it would make very little sense for that to continue.  You don't spend lavishly on the passing attack and then make it an afterthought in the offense.  If Harvin remains a Jet in 2015 and beyond, the Jets almost certainly will be sporting a brand new, modern pass first attack.  Whether Geno, Rex, Marty or anyone else is still here or not, if Harvin remains, the Jets will be passing the ball, a lot.  If Geno is deemed not to be the answer, then we should expect the Jets to either try to swing a trade for a quarterback they believe could lead such an attack, or select a quarterback early in the 2015 draft.  Continuing the current run first approach seems counterproductive and highly unlikely if Harvin is retained beyond this year.   Consequently, finding a quarterback who can run a modern passing attack would seem to be of the highest priority.

John Idzik

There are so many moving parts to the effects this deal may have on the Jets.  From the structure of the Jets cap to the nature of the offense to the fates of Rex, Marty, Geno and Kerley, this deal feels like the first fateful move John Idzik has made.  If Harvin fails Idzik will have lost a low round pick and $6.4 million of cap space; not great for 9 games, but not devastating.  However, the Jets will likely have also lost Rex, Marty and the entire coaching staff, Geno Smith, and any pretense of not still being in rebuilding mode three years into Idzik's tenure in 2015.  That is a fairly dangerous position for a GM to be in three years in.  If on the other hand Harvin succeeds, Idzik will have lost a 4th round draft pick and $16.9 million in cap space that could have been spent on several other very good players, and very likely will have lost Jeremy Kerley, while gaining a dynamic playmaking, if injury prone, receiver.  Harvin may conceivably also save the jobs of the entire current coaching staff, and if he stays beyond 2014 Harvin very likely will usher in a new pass happy Jets offense, as well as very possibly a new quarterback to run it.  This trade portends so many possible consequences, good and bad, that it really feels like it could mark a turning point in John Idzik's career.  The volatile, dynamic, injury prone, playmaking enigma that is Percy Harvin could well be the butterfly that flaps its wings and sets in motion a whirlwind in Jetsville.

Very insightful.

 

I thought it was funny how this morning ESPN made the story about how Harvin was a cancer in Seattle and all the players hated him, all the trouble he caused. Not one specific story to back that up, but he was just a terror. Then it was all about how the Jets desperately threw away a draft pick on this "troubled" player.

 

Not one word about Seattle blowing all those picks to obtain him and then bailing out a year and a half into it. They actually made it seem like they got over on us. What a joke

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What mortgaging the  future? Harvin might be  aJ et for 9 games only if it does not pan out. He has 9 games to show he is worth it.

 

  That would be the sign of a GM who just wants PR and not building a winning team.  Who trades for a guy they only keep for 9 games?   And what constitutes good or bad?  I mean Harvin has what, 22 receptions this year and people are complaining he isn't having a good season.  

Last time I checked, Decker has what, 24 receptions and injury issues.  So would the Jets cut him or trade him? Probably not, but Harvin has played 6 regular season games for Seattle and that's what they did to him.   

The idea is for Harvin to be on the team next season and he probably will make $10 million or close to it.  If Harvin goes on having a similar season as he's had and Decker goes on like he has,  why would Harvin take less money than Decker makes?

 

 I just think Jets fans live in a fantasy land where Harvin plays well and then renegotiates for no guaranteed money and $4 million a year.  Yeah ok.  The other scenario is the Jets cut him after the season, a season where they could go 6-3 from here on out  and finish 7-9.    So what was the point in trading for Harvin for 9 games on a losing team?

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All the handwringing over cost is hilarious. You know what happens if you only sign bargains? You have a bargain team. Game breakers cost money and you have to "overpay" (not overpaying because it is market price, but that aside for now) in the sense that harvin costs much more than twice as much as a guy with half his ability. This article forgets that you can only play 11 players at a time that is why small increases in skill and production carry huge premiums.

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I thought this article was well written and went through all aspects of the trade really well. It made me reevaluate it a bit. It did cost us quite a bit of coin but I´m all for it just because it is the right thing to do from the Geno perspective. They need to now by the end of the year if he´s our guy or not. That for me makes this trade worth it every day of the week.

 

 

http://www.ganggreennation.com/2014/10/18/7001419/ny-jets-harvin-side-effects

 

 

The acquisition of Percy Harvin makes the NY Jets a better team than it was two days ago.  This is beyond dispute.  The ways in which it makes the Jets a better team are fairly obvious and have already been thoroughly discussed here and elsewhere.  This article isn't about that.  In this article we'll explore some of the ways in which the Harvin trade may have wide ranging side effects for the Jets and their personnel.  Let's start with a good, juicy conspiracy theory.

Rex Ryan

John Idzik intended to get Rex Ryan fired.  That was a theory.  I think this trade puts that theory to rest.  If Idzik wanted Rex fired he would certainly not have added a dynamic playmaker to the offense at this stage of the season.  It's true, playoff hopes are pretty much completely gone at this point; it's likely too late to salvage those.  It may be true that if Rex fails to make the playoffs he will be gone no matter how the Jets perform the rest of the way.  But given Woody Johnson's clear affection and respect for Rex Ryan, it is doubtful John Idzik is certain that is the case at this stage of the season.  If Idzik is not yet certain of Rex's fate, and he wants Rex fired, why on earth would he add a weapon of Harvin's caliber to the roster now?   Harvin cannot hurt the chances of this team the rest of the way, he can only help.  How much remains to be seen, but it makes little sense to theorize Idzik is deliberately trying to get Rex fired, and at the same time Idzik is spending $6.4 million this year, money he could have saved for next year and used on his own chosen head coach, to help Rex finish this season as strong as possible.  There was likely no other move available for Idzik to make at this late date that would have anything close to the impact Harvin has the potential to make with the 2014 Jets; why make this move that can only help Rex's chances of retaining his job?  If the unlikely happens and the Jets catch fire down the stretch and finish say 8-8 yet again, does anyone doubt Rex would have a decent chance of being brought back by an owner that has tremendous affection and respect for Rex?  How much would Idzik regret that effect if this were to unfold?  How much would he regret possibly saving Rex's job with the Harvin transaction?   Surely Idzik has thought this through if he really was ever angling to get Rex fired.  Surely having thought it through he would have concluded such a blockbuster move could only help Rex's chances of staying on.  Surely having thought that much about it, if Idzik really wanted Rex fired, he would never have agreed to the Harvin trade.   I just don't think there is any longer any credible argument to be made that John Idzik deliberately sabotaged Rex's season.  Conspiracy theories are fun, but this one has no legs.  Whatever the reason or reasons were for Idzik not spending more sooner, none of them included trying to get Rex fired.

Salary Cap

I'm going to assume for purposes of this article that after the 2014 season there are three possibilities: Harvin is on the Jets roster under the current terms of his contract in 2015;  Harvin is cut after the 2014 season;  or Harvin is traded after the 2014 season.   There is obviously a 4th possibility in that his contract could be restructured, but without knowing how he will perform the rest of this year, whether he will once again be injured, whether he would be amenable to a pay cut, whether he even wants to play for the Jets, and a host of other variables, it is nearly impossible to know what his salary might be in the event a restructure took place.  Consequently I'm going to keep this simple and just assume if Harvin  is on the 2015 Jets roster he will be paid $10.5 million for his services.

If Harvin is cut or traded prior to the start of the 2015 season, then the following consequences occur for the Jets.  First, the Jets will trade their 6th round choice in the 2015 draft to the Seattle Seahawks.  Second, the Jets will have spent $6.4 million (I'm going with Overthecap.com's numbers here, other sources say it's more like $7.1 million) in 2014 and received 9 games from Harvin.  Had the Jets never made this trade, that $6.4 million would have rolled over into the 2015 cap space and beyond, meaning that the cost of this trade in the event Harvin is not on the 2015 Jets roster will be a 6th round pick in the 2015 draft and whatever player or players could have been brought here in 2015 or a later year for the $6.4 million spent on Harvin.   The idea that this trade is without risk, or has a tiny cost of just a 6th round pick, is simply not true.  If Harvin is not on the 2015 Jets roster the cost is a 6th round pick AND some player or players that would have otherwise been signed for the $6.4 million Harvin cost.   That may or may not be worth 9 games of a Harvin tryout, but it is certainly not virtually costless.

If Harvin is on the opening day roster of the 2015 NY Jets, his entire $10.5 million base salary becomes guaranteed (this is true for the base salary of any veteran player on the opening day roster). In such an event, the cost of the Harvin trade goes up quite a bit.  It would then amount to the fourth round pick in the 2015 draft the Jets would owe the Seahawks, PLUS whatever players $16.9 million in 2015 cap space would be able to buy in 2015 and beyond.  All of the $6.4 million paid in 2015 PLUS the $10.5 million paid in 2015 comes off the cap if Harvin is here in 2015, and all of it could have been used for other players if he were never traded to the Jets.  So the Harvin trade, if he is a Jet in 2015, costs a 4th round pick and $16.9 million worth of other players that could have otherwise been signed had the trade never happened.  $16.9 million can buy quite a bit in other players.  As just an example, that kind of money could have netted the Jets Decker,Golden Tate, AND one of the two Kansas City guards on the market last offseason.  Is Harvin worth such a package, PLUS a 4th round draft pick?  I don't know, but this is far from a slam dunk great value move by Idzik.   The idea that this move was without risk basically ignores opportunity costs, otherwise known as what other players could we have gotten if the trade had never happened.  Maybe this was the best way to spend the cap dollars, but that is far from certain and this was hardly a risk free move.

Roster Structure

If Harvin performs well enough to be brought back in 2015, then John Idzik's two biggest moves will have been signing two wide receivers, Decker and Harvin.  Harvin will become the highest compensated Jet in 2015.  The Jets will have the 7th most cap space in the NFL tied up in wide receivers, behind the CardinalsLionsDolphinsRedskins,Falcons and Texans.  One can certainly question whether this represents a sound structure for the Jets cap spending.  It would seem to all but preclude finding another good outside receiver for the Jets in free agency, as it is doubtful Idzik will seek to spend even more money on big contracts at the position.   One can question what this team has for that kind of money.  It is a curiously structured group of receivers, with Harvin, Kerley (if he is re-signed) and even Amaro all operating best out of the slot, while the team remains without a credible #2 outside receiver and a deep threat.  If Kerley is re-signed the Jets would likely jump to 5th on the list of wide receiver cap spending, yet it hardly seems the kind of group that justifies such lavish spending.  If Kerley is not re-signed, there remains a gaping hole at the #2 outside wide receiver position, with likely only the draft available to fill it.  Either way the group remains somewhat ill structured and unbalanced without a legitimate #2 outside wide receiver and deep threat, something you would not expect with such a high cap figure devoted to the position.

Jeremy Kerley

Jeremy Kerley is best suited to be a slot receiver.  Percy Harvin is best suited to be a slot receiver.  Percy Harvin is better than Jeremy Kerley.   Kerley is a free agent in 2015.  Kerley has largely disappeared from the Jets attack with the addition of Decker and the emergence of Amaro.  The addition of Harvin, if he remains a Jet in 2015, likely seals Kerley's fate as a Jet.  It seems unlikely the Jets will  make a strong effort to retain the services of an underpeforming slot receiver who fills many of the same roles as Harvin, only with less talent.  It seems likely that in 2015 either Kerley will be a Jet or Harvin will be a Jet, but not both.

Geno Smith

It has been noted that the Jets may have made this move in order to properly evaluate Geno Smith the rest of the season.  I'm not too sure about that theory, but at a minimum it certainly does remove the excuse that Geno has  no weapons to work with and therefore cannot be properly evaluated.  Another interesting side effect of the Harvin trade could be as follows.  If Harvin lives up to the Jets' best hopes and lights a fire under the Jets offense he could mean the difference between Rex staying another year and Rex getting fired.  If the Jets were to somehow mount something like a 7-2 run to end the season and finish 8-8, that might well be enough to save Rex's job, especially if the offense finally looks like it's NFL quality.  If Rex stays, Marty Mornhinweg stays, and Geno might well get another year based on a presumably strong finish.  If the Harvin trade does not work as planned and the Jets fail to finish strong, Rex and Marty will likely both be fired, and whoever comes in to coach next year will almost certainly want to choose his own quarterback.  Thus Harvin, if he performs really well, could conceivably save the jobs of the entire coaching staff and Geno Smith.  I leave it to you to decide if any or all of those things would be good or bad effects.

The Nature of the Offense

The Jets for Rex's entire tenure have been a run first, ground and pound team.  With Harvin coming aboard and a rather large chunk of the cap being devoted to the wide receiver position, it would make very little sense for that to continue.  You don't spend lavishly on the passing attack and then make it an afterthought in the offense.  If Harvin remains a Jet in 2015 and beyond, the Jets almost certainly will be sporting a brand new, modern pass first attack.  Whether Geno, Rex, Marty or anyone else is still here or not, if Harvin remains, the Jets will be passing the ball, a lot.  If Geno is deemed not to be the answer, then we should expect the Jets to either try to swing a trade for a quarterback they believe could lead such an attack, or select a quarterback early in the 2015 draft.  Continuing the current run first approach seems counterproductive and highly unlikely if Harvin is retained beyond this year.   Consequently, finding a quarterback who can run a modern passing attack would seem to be of the highest priority.

John Idzik

There are so many moving parts to the effects this deal may have on the Jets.  From the structure of the Jets cap to the nature of the offense to the fates of Rex, Marty, Geno and Kerley, this deal feels like the first fateful move John Idzik has made.  If Harvin fails Idzik will have lost a low round pick and $6.4 million of cap space; not great for 9 games, but not devastating.  However, the Jets will likely have also lost Rex, Marty and the entire coaching staff, Geno Smith, and any pretense of not still being in rebuilding mode three years into Idzik's tenure in 2015.  That is a fairly dangerous position for a GM to be in three years in.  If on the other hand Harvin succeeds, Idzik will have lost a 4th round draft pick and $16.9 million in cap space that could have been spent on several other very good players, and very likely will have lost Jeremy Kerley, while gaining a dynamic playmaking, if injury prone, receiver.  Harvin may conceivably also save the jobs of the entire current coaching staff, and if he stays beyond 2014 Harvin very likely will usher in a new pass happy Jets offense, as well as very possibly a new quarterback to run it.  This trade portends so many possible consequences, good and bad, that it really feels like it could mark a turning point in John Idzik's career.  The volatile, dynamic, injury prone, playmaking enigma that is Percy Harvin could well be the butterfly that flaps its wings and sets in motion a whirlwind in Jetsville.

except now harvin will run the wildcat like rex wants.

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All the handwringing over cost is hilarious. You know what happens if you only sign bargains? You have a bargain team. Game breakers cost money and you have to "overpay" (not overpaying because it is market price, but that aside for now) in the sense that harvin costs much more than twice as much as a guy with half his ability. This article forgets that you can only play 11 players at a time that is why small increases in skill and production carry huge premiums.

I think the point that most people are concerned with isn't overpaying for a good player but paying $7mm for someone this year on a 1-6 team.  This team isn't going to the playoffs and I would much rather have the extra $7mm next year.  $7mm goes a long way in NFL free agency.

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I think the point that most people are concerned with isn't overpaying for a good player but paying $7mm for someone this year on a 1-6 team. This team isn't going to the playoffs and I would much rather have the extra $7mm next year. $7mm goes a long way in NFL free agency.

Unless his leg falls off he will be a jet in 2015. And if he gets hurt or is a major turd in the locker room we have an escape clause. Completely justifiable risk idzik is taking here.

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they would have cut him if they couldn't trade him, which makes them look better to the fans and players upset about the trade because at least they got something for him after giving up 3 picks

 

Yeah, it's all spin. 

 

Marshawn Lynch's reaction will be the one the fans echo. The fact that they are losing games to teams like the Rams will force the issue... spin away Seattle, the Superbowl hangover looks good on you.

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Unless his leg falls off he will be a jet in 2015. And if he gets hurt or is a major turd in the locker room we have an escape clause. Completely justifiable risk idzik is taking here.

 

Still don't get it, under this circumstance it is essentially $17mm for next year.  You could have gone out and offered Dez Bryant $17mm next year and probably got him if you wanted to throw that much money at a WR.

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Still don't get it, under this circumstance it is essentially $17mm for next year. You could have gone out and offered Dez Bryant $17mm next year and probably got him if you wanted to throw that much money at a WR.

It's a one year, $6.7 million dollar deal. That year is 9 games.

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Still don't get it, under this circumstance it is essentially $17mm for next year. You could have gone out and offered Dez Bryant $17mm next year and probably got him if you wanted to throw that much money at a WR.

"Probably", "could have", "maybe"... Harvin was available, we have an scape clause, his talent is unquestioned, bird in hand.

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