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IMO #6 is where you get the type of player that never hits free agency because they're too valuable at any price.
 
Guards hit free agency all the time. Even the very best ones, and none of them have ever received a $10M/year deal. Maybe Iupati will be the first, maybe not. But even if he does, it still shows that this type of player can clearly be had in free agency. Most top 10 guards are playing on $6-7M/year deals.
 
What slats is saying about it not being a premium position is correct. If this was accepted throughout the league, it would be commonplace for the top FA guards to see $10-12M/year deals instead of it never having happened even once. Well that still doesn't fit, since if it was such a premium position it would be a rarity for any GM to allow that caliber of guard to hit free agency in the first place.
 

  • How often does a top, franchise-player level QB hit free agency? Never, except for perfect storm situations and uncertain player health (Manning, Brees while their former teams had or were about to have younger, top-4 pick, franchise-player level QBs on the roster already in Luck/Rivers)
  • How often does a top, franchise-player level WR hit free agency? Never, unless they're dirtbags the original team wants no part of (Wallace, Holmes)
  • How often does a top, franchise-player level LT hit free agency? It happens, but not very often.
  • How often does a top, franchise-player level DE/OLB pass rusher hit free agency? Rarely, if the player is on the right side of 30 and is therefore a good bet to play out a 5yr deal.
  • How often does a top G hit free agency? All the time. It happens virtually every season. Most of the top-paid guards don't play for the teams that drafted them.

 
This is why GMs don't take guards that highly in the draft. They know if they really have a big hole there and really want to fill it with the best of the best (or find someone who's good enough that an improvement would be insignificant) it can be done in free agency in any offseason one wishes, because there's always a top-ranked guard whose team doesn't think he's worth to them what he'll get on the open market in free agency. 

That list of cap hits for guards this year is slanted. Single-year cap hits don't exist in a vacuum anymore (to the extent that they ever did). The average per season - which doesn't even include the highest-salary seasons, that the player often doesn't see - is what you look at. Not the highest single season cap hit scheduled. But oddly enough, when looking at that one snapshot in time, one sees that the Saints allowed their guards to count for over $20M of their cap in 2014. How'd that work out for them? There isn't a GM in football that would sign up for that, including Loomis if he was granted a do-over. 

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Talking about taking an OT at #6 in the first round is not "sexy", but Brandon Scherff out of Iowa is very impressive. While at the gym I watched him play against Tenn:   - He's as big as a barn   - H

That's oldhead talk.  since 2000 the Jets have had 5 picks in the top ten.  Dwayne Robertson, Vernon Gholston, Mark Sanchez and Dee Milliner.  The only other top ten pick we had was D'Brickashaw Fergu

Zack Martin's first team all pro...   If that's the way they went and then signed Iupati...that's the quickest way to turn this team around. Our guard play as been dismal.

How often does a top, franchise-player level QB hit free agency? Never, except for perfect storm situations and uncertain player health (Manning, Brees while their former teams had or were about to have younger, top-4 pick, franchise-player level QBs on the roster already in Luck/Rivers)

How often does a top, franchise-player level WR hit free agency? Never, unless they're dirtbags the original team wants no part of (Wallace, Holmes)

How often does a top, franchise-player level LT hit free agency? It happens, but not very often.

How often does a top, franchise-player level DE/OLB pass rusher hit free agency? Rarely, if the player is on the right side of 30 and is therefore a good bet to play out a 5yr deal. How often does a top G hit free agency? All the time. It happens virtually every season. Most of the top-paid guards don't play for the teams that drafted them.

 

So we need to get the best available: QB, WR, maybe a LT, or a pass rusher. (at least, according to this break down)

 

QB: Lets pretend that the big two are not available (and if one gets past two QB-needy teams that maybe there is a reason for it).  Do we value the position enough to draft the "third best" QB (and at 6 overall)?  If we find a kid in the draft process that lights it up for the FO, do they take (Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty, Kevin Hogan) at 6 overall? In this case the talent differential of the three doesn't warrant taking one of them this high, because at least one of the tier would still be around at the top of round-2, maybe consider a late round trade-up. 

 

WR: Everyone keeps raving about Amari Cooper, and rightly so.  But nobody has suggested drafting any other WRs at the 6 spot.  Is it a far gone conclusion that if we draft a "hard-to-find" play maker it should be Cooper?  He has consistency, and he's safe.  But if we ascribe to the--lets get the expensive freaks high in the draft--mantra, shouldn't we go for a young super-stud with either stoopid speed, or size, or hands, or route-running, and not the safe pick that has a little of everything?  It seems to me that a WR (or two) that are just like Cooper come out in free agency every year.  If that a reason to not take an OG at 6, it should be the criteria for not taking a (however highly touted) WR.   Jalen Strong, Kevin White, Davante Parker and even Dorial Green-Beckham, have the hands AND the size AND the speed.

 

LT: I agree.

If you want a top-10 LT--arguably the most important piece of the OL given it's responsibility to protect your QB's career-ending blind side--drafting him at 6 overall is completely reasonable. That's why Brandon Scherff is an excellent candidate to draft at 6 overall.

His ability to "red-shirt" on the right side of our OL (the easier side) and get up to speed while our Franchise QB is on the bench learning for a year, means you not only get to bring him along slowly, but you get a year to evaluate the possibility of him moving to LT.  

 

DE/OLB Pass Rusher:

The most successful recent draftees at the pass rushing positions have gone to teams that run a 4-3. Anthony Barr came from a hybrid 3-4 defense at UCLA to a DE in a 4-3, aside from him the other notable players came from a 4-3 to a 4-3, and it is in these seamless transitions that the players are finding success.  

Randy Gregory is this year's "stud" but is he going to Barkevious Mingo in the league or Khalil Mack? The hit-or-miss with these guys is so frequent, and given our recent attention to drafting pass rush, it would just seem like a redundancy with poor timing.  You say these guys rarely hit the market, but the truth is: they come out every single year. And for every big-name pass rusher that gets a big contract... some "no-name" up-and-comer also hits his stride on the stat-sheet.  So they can be found outside of 6 overall.   

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1. Jahri Evans, Saints, $11M 

2. Ben Grubbs, Saints, $9.1M

3. Andy Levitre, Titans, $8.6M

4. Marhal Yanda, Ravens, $8.45M

5. Justin Blalock, Falcons, $7.6M

6. Zane Beadles, Jaguars, $7.5M

7. Louis Vasquez, Broncos, $7.2M

8. Josh Sutton, Packers, $6.4M

9. Logan Makins, Buccaneers, $6.25M

10. Evan Mathis, Eagles, $6.1M

Jahri Evans = pick #108 (round 4)

Ben Grubbs = pick #29 (very end of round 1)

Andy Levitre = #51 (round 2)

Marshall Yanda = #86 (round 3)

Justin Blalock = #39 (round 2)

Zane Beadles = #45 (round 2)

Louis Vasquez = #78 (round 3)

Josh Sutton = #135 (round 4)

Logan Mankins = #32 (very end of round 1)

Evan Mathis = #79 (round 3)

I would use your post to illustrate why you would NEVER take a guard with a #10 overall pick (let alone a #6 overall pick). You want a guard? Fine. Trade down 20-30 places first or use our 2nd round pick on a great one plus pay $5-8M/year for Iupati or Carpenter or Boling or whoever similar hits free agency. #6 overall is mindless when top-notch guards are so easy to find. #6 is where you fill positions that are impossible to fill nearly as adequately in free agency.

If he is a pure beast who is specifically a LT prospect with lightning-fast feet who locks on to DEs who can't get off or get around or overpower him, AND who is a far better run blocker than Ferguson was in his prime, then I can get behind this kid as the pick. But not if he's a G/RT tweener prospect that possibly could slide over to LT or RT but where he's less-ideally suited. Not at #6. Never.

Answer this: if we had a pair of top 10 type guards locked up at an average of $6M apiece would you still advocate burning a #6 overall pick on one? Because GM Spermie can get you that pair of guards in free agency before draft day this year, locked up until the 2020 season is upon us at least, and they wouldn't have any rookie to second year growing pains; they're both already top 10 sure things right now.

 

Then you, GM Greenseed4, go get the me and the rest of us non-scout Jets fans a (non-RB) prospect who puts up fantasy football type stats at #6. At #6 I want to see passing yards, receiving yards, marching us down the field in big chunks, and I want to see touchdowns. Lots of touchdowns. If not, I want to see interceptions/passes defensed or QB sacks/hurries/hits that prevent opponents from making those types of plays. Because we either can't get those players in free agency or they're $12-16M/year players in free agency. And if those players aren't going to be available at #6, then trade down 7-10 slots, pick up another 2nd round pick, and you can use that one on a guard (and he should be a great or nearly-great guard if he's selected in the top 50). Or trade down 20 slots for another 1st round pick in 2016 and you can take a guard at #26 (but he'd better be Logan Mankins level if you do).

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#6 is way to high for a Guard, it's L.T territory.

If you believe this guys a future L.T and you red shirt him at R.T I'm cool with that, but #6 on a Guard no way. On a side note, the Saints spent 20 Million on their Guards!!!

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Jahri Evans = pick #108 (round 4)

Ben Grubbs = pick #29 (very end of round 1)

Andy Levitre = #51 (round 2)

Marshall Yanda = #86 (round 3)

Justin Blalock = #39 (round 2)

Zane Beadles = #45 (round 2)

Louis Vasquez = #78 (round 3)

Josh Sutton = #135 (round 4)

Logan Mankins = #32 (very end of round 1)

Evan Mathis = #79 (round 3)

I would use your post to illustrate why you would NEVER take a guard with a #10 overall pick (let alone a #6 overall pick). You want a guard? Fine. Trade down 20-30 places first or use our 2nd round pick on a great one plus pay $5-8M/year for Iupati or Carpenter or Boling or whoever similar hits free agency. #6 overall is mindless when top-notch guards are so easy to find. #6 is where you fill positions that are impossible to fill nearly as adequately in free agency.

If he is a pure beast who is specifically a LT prospect with lightning-fast feet who locks on to DEs who can't get off or get around or overpower him, AND who is a far better run blocker than Ferguson was in his prime, then I can get behind this kid as the pick. But not if he's a G/RT tweener prospect that possibly could slide over to LT or RT but where he's less-ideally suited. Not at #6. Never.

Answer this: if we had a pair of top 10 type guards locked up at an average of $6M apiece would you still advocate burning a #6 overall pick on one? Because GM Spermie can get you that pair of guards in free agency before draft day this year, locked up until the 2020 season is upon us at least, and they wouldn't have any rookie to second year growing pains; they're both already top 10 sure things right now.

 

Then you, GM Greenseed4, go get the me and the rest of us non-scout Jets fans a (non-RB) prospect who puts up fantasy football type stats at #6. At #6 I want to see passing yards, receiving yards, marching us down the field in big chunks, and I want to see touchdowns. Lots of touchdowns. If not, I want to see interceptions/passes defensed or QB sacks/hurries/hits that prevent opponents from making those types of plays. Because we either can't get those players in free agency or they're $12-16M/year players in free agency. And if those players aren't going to be available at #6, then trade down 7-10 slots, pick up another 2nd round pick, and you can use that one on a guard (and he should be a great or nearly-great guard if he's selected in the top 50). Or trade down 20 slots for another 1st round pick in 2016 and you can take a guard at #26 (but he'd better be Logan Mankins level if you do).

 

That is some Vlad Ducasse talk right there. 

 

The last time we had a dominant LG, Pete Kendall, we were good.

Our RBs ran better, our WRs caught more passes, our QB stayed up-right longer.

Since then, trying to scrape by with Adrian Clarke, or the easy-to-find late round heroes that you speak of, or the second-rate second-round (discount, bargain OG) pick...The team can improve it's offensive play by upgrading the OL and setting it up for continued success.  

IF you can get that handled in this free agency for $6M a pop, that's great. The job is yours.  If Brick were to go down, what's the contingency plan? Ijalana? Move Breno over? What happens if Mangold gets injured again? The two new guys get to receive blocking assignments from Dalton Freeman?

 

Scherff is a LT, who at the very worst becomes a pro-bowl OG/RT  

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Slats I agree with you with your opinion on guards, however the way I look at Scherff at #6 would be the following. Put him at RT and move Breno inside to RG. Once Bricks done then you transition him to LT. If I'm the Jets and Cooper and Mariota are gone by 6(they will be) the next thing I'd go for is the best O-lineman in the draft.

I said earlier in this thread or another one that I'd do exactly that - primarily because Brick is unsuited for any other position other than LT, and he's gonna be here for another year or two (at least). But the guy they take has to be a lock to be a franchise LT type, not some guy who might be a tackle, might be a guard.

I understand the need for OL. I'm all for the Jets spending on a guard in free agency. They've taken four OL in the last two drafts, maybe one of them is worthy (Dozier?). And I'm okay with drafting OL again this year, too.

But I don't put need on the OL above all else at the #6 pick. If Cooper and the QBs are gone, I'm looking at the BAP or trading down. The BAP is probably gonna be the pass rusher over the G/T.

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Slats I agree with you with your opinion on guards, however the way I look at Scherff at #6 would be the following. Put him at RT and move Breno inside to RG. Once Bricks done then you transition him to LT. If I'm the Jets and Cooper and Mariota are gone by 6(they will be) the next thing I'd go for is the best O-lineman in the draft. 

Good take, he is drafted to play tackle- that is what warrants the top 10 selection. That he has the strength to play inside is a bonus that give the team flexibility.

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Zack Martin...terrible pick right?

 

You understand that Zach Martin was drafted at pick 16. There have been a few Guards taken in the middle of the first , but very few have ever been taken in the top 6.  Just because one team hit big taking on  guard/tackle prospect is not any reason to ignore 40 years of historical positional draft value

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I think being at #6 in this draft is a bad spot for us if we were at 4 we would at least have a shot at Cooper or the one of the top pass rushers. With the Redskins and Oakland ahead of us I think that limits us to an OL or the second or third best pass rusher. As of know as I see it this not really a strong draft class, even if we wanted to trade back who would want to move to 6 for someone we wouldn't take?

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I think being at #6 in this draft is a bad spot for us if we were at 4 we would at least have a shot at Cooper or the one of the top pass rushers. With the Redskins and Oakland ahead of us I think that limits us to an OL or the second or third best pass rusher. As of know as I see it this not really a strong draft class, even if we wanted to trade back who would want to move to 6 for someone we wouldn't take?

 

Coop is too short and slow to be selected at #6... take BAP in this slot or trade down. Take a QB in rd 2

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Mocks are and have always been a stupid way to learn about the draft. Read other draft material!

Peat's stud stratus if he declares. Shaw comped him to Ogden.

I don't place much stock in where they put guys, it's just an easy way to find a list and then click names so I can find scouting reports. I gotta start somewhere :)

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Coop is too short and slow to be selected at #6... take BAP in this slot or trade down. Take a QB in rd 2

So you don't see Oalkang taking Cooper? If Cooper is there at 6 I hope we take him. I don't see him falling out of the top 10. Who would u like at 6?

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Does he project as a LT or a RT in the NFL.

The reports say he is flexible. can play LT or RT or even Guard.  We could use him;  then get a WR in 2nd; CB in 3rd.

 

I am sure we will find some good players in FA-- maybe Iupati from 49's.

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So you don't see Oalkang taking Cooper? If Cooper is there at 6 I hope we take him. I don't see him falling out of the top 10. Who would u like at 6?

 

The big ? will be, if Shameus slips to #6 will Jets bite?

 

The Jets should take highest rated player on board for these positions  QB, OT,  CB, LB or  WR.

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Iupoti is a top five guard and a free agent. How about we just do that instead of drafting someone and hoping they develop into Iupoti?

If Scherff projects as a franchise tackle, then draft him. But, he seems to project as a tweener. We have the choice of any draft eligible college player except for five. Surely, we can find one that has a f*cking definitive position.

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Zack Martin's first team all pro...

 

If that's the way they went and then signed Iupati...that's the quickest way to turn this team around. Our guard play as been dismal.

If we drafted Scherff and signed Iupati we have a top 3 Offensive Line.

 

Enough with the stupid amateur hour nonsense that you can't draft a Guard with a top 10 pick.  Who'd you rather have Zack Martin or Calvin Pryor?  Nuff Said.

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I still get confused when people try to paint TE as a non-premium position. That position has absolutely blown up in the past decade.

 

Guard's a premium spot too - the top guys get paid and tons of recognition.

 

 

Anyone who plays every down is a premium position.  TE's used to not play every down now they do.  Guards play 100% of snaps how is that not a premium position?

 

People are acting like we're drafting a Fullback or Punter at 6.  Just nonsense.

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Enough with the stupid amateur hour nonsense that you can't draft a Guard with a top 10 pick. Who'd you rather have Zack Martin or Calvin Pryor? Nuff Said.

Well, I wouldn't draft a safety with a top ten pick either. Both were picked in the teens, anyway. So was Odell Beckham. Can I choose him in this exercise?

By the way, someone should tell NFL GMs that amateur hour is over, since not a single one of them has used a top 6 pick on a guard in nearly 40 years.

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Talking about taking an OT at #6 in the first round is not
"sexy", but Brandon Scherff out of Iowa is very impressive.
While at the gym I watched him play against Tenn:
 
- He's as big as a barn
 
- He has excellent feet
 
- Good quickness to get to the 2nd & 3rd level
 
- Good flexibility to bend and block speedy edge rushers
 
- And maybe his most impressive trait was the nastiness
he was playing with as his team was getting blown out.  You
couldn't tell what the score was with how hard he was playing
 
If we took him I could see him playing guard until Brick's
play declines.  So far from what I've seen if our first
two picks were Brandon Scherff and Bryce Petty I would be
happy 

 

He'll be our best left guard since Alan Faneca or our best RT since Woody. I'd take him at 6 for sure.  I dont think he's as good as Faneca or Woody at the moment, but he's an upgrade. 

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Iupoti is a top five guard and a free agent. How about we just do that instead of drafting someone and hoping they develop into Iupoti?

If Scherff projects as a franchise tackle, then draft him. But, he seems to project as a tweener. We have the choice of any draft eligible college player except for five. Surely, we can find one that has a f*cking definitive position.

 

This. 

 

Getting Iupoti is a must this off-season. Anyone remember how signing Faneca in free agency worked out?

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I am a big OL fan. But there's several drawbacks to the Scherff at 6 idea

 

 Zack Martin to Scherff is a comparison that makes sense. He will start right away, be a stud, and is a safe pick. Like Martin, Scherff may or may not grade out as a top 5 pick in terms of physical upside.  Unlike Martin, Scherff appears to be big timing the Senior Bowl. I think that's  a mistake. The ghost of Robert Gallery haunts the Iowa OL. Bulaga has been ok at RT (hurt a bunch) but the stat for Scherff that will determine his value is going to be arm length.

 

But the only reason it makes a damn bit of diff in Dallas is because of Tony Romo. 

 

the Jets worst need, by far, is QB. Adding another stud, even if he's a PRO Bowl LT (idealistic best case) doesn't change their fate on game day.  For example the Browns have Joe Thomas blocking for Hoyer/Manziel that's not a problem that needs more OL to fix. MORE and Better Offensive line doesn't fix the Jets. 

 

QB should be the target, even if there isn't supposedly a perfect prospect available. If it's Petty or some other "reach" so be it. I wish the Jets had "reached" on Bridgewater, Carr, Jimmy G last year. Give the team a chance.  They need another live body at the position. Winston would be a huge luxury i don't think he makes it to 6 and could just play baseball. 

 

Other needs: CB is a tire fire. WR will be a problem after they cut Harvin. even tho IK and his 12 snaps a game are ok, OLB is not ideal having Pace/Babin getting all those snaps.

 

for me, best "Reach" QB, Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory or Shane Ray pick might make more sense than a Scherff pick.

 

 OL is like 10th on the list of needs. They need to replace Colon mostly and a Winters vs Dozier training camp battle could be interesting. at least to me. 

 

and finally I did not float the Mangold to LG idea but it is somewhat interesting. Why mess with success. He's the best center in football. 

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I am a big OL fan. But there's several drawbacks to the Scherff at 6 idea

 

 Zack Martin to Scherff is a comparison that at least makes some sense. He will start right away, be a stud, and is a safe pick. He also will not grade out as a top 5 pick in terms of physical upside. But the only reason it makes a damn bit of diff in Dallas is because of Tony Romo. 

 

the Jets worst need, by far, is QB. Adding another stud, even if he's a PRO Bowl LT (idealistic best case) doesn't change their fate on game day.  For example the Browns have Joe Thomas blocking for Hoyer/Manziel that's not a time to add more OL.

 

QB should be the target, even if there isn't supposedly a perfect prospect available. CB is a tire fire. WR also will be a problem after they cut Harvin. OLB is not ideal having Pace getting all those snaps. OL is like 10th on the list of needs. 

 

and finally I did not float the Mangold to LG idea but it is somewhat interesting. Why mess with success. He's the best center in football. 

 

True. However the Jets won a lot of games with a sh*tty QB and a great oline in 09/10. It's the quickest way to turn this ship around. Granted, if the Jets fall in love with Jameis I have no issues with it...but a combo of Colon, Winters and Aboushi cant happen next year if they expect to be competitive.

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Talking about taking an OT at #6 in the first round is not
"sexy", but Brandon Scherff out of Iowa is very impressive.
While at the gym I watched him play against Tenn:
 
- He's as big as a barn
 
- He has excellent feet
 
- Good quickness to get to the 2nd & 3rd level
 
- Good flexibility to bend and block speedy edge rushers
 
- And maybe his most impressive trait was the nastiness
he was playing with as his team was getting blown out.  You
couldn't tell what the score was with how hard he was playing
 
If we took him I could see him playing guard until Brick's
play declines.  So far from what I've seen if our first
two picks were Brandon Scherff and Bryce Petty I would be
happy 

 

Took the words right out of my mouth. Both are excellent prospects and it makes sense for Jets to go OT in round one with the porous OL they have now. I would put him at RT to replace Giacomini and go after G Mike Iupati and get Petty in second round. Awesome

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 a combo of Colon, Winters and Aboushi cant happen next year if they expect to be competitive.

 

a combo of Geno Smith, Matt Simms and no one isn't gonna work either.  They can find a guard in other rounds. 

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