Let's talk Wilkerson deal

[DaBallhawk]

The #1 priority this offseason will be re-signing Mo Wilkerson of course but doing so will be tricky. He's not a free agent, he's locked up for at least another year and we can still tag him the year after. So technically he'd be playing on a 1 year deal for the next 2 years unless he takes less money (compared to what he'd make as a UFA) to get a long term deal done now. He'll be paid less than he's worth. But if Watt does it with the Texans there's no reason for Mo not to do it here. So let's look at some of the contracts signed by other elite D-Linemen in a similar situation. Age around 25, Pro Bowl worthy, still under contract, re-signed by their drafted team and so on...

 

JJ Watt (25, HOU)

Obviously this isn't going to happen, Wilk is not going to even come close to those numbers. Watt signed a 6 year, 100 mil. contract with 51.8 mil. guaranteed. Annual average of 16.6 mil.

 

Robert Quinn (24, STL)

He was in the DPOY running last year, posted 19 sacks. In terms of value to his team him and Mo are similar. His stats are obviously "better" playing in a 4-3 defense as a pure pass rusher. The Rams signed him to a 4 year, 57 mil. deal with over 41 mil. guaranteed. So overall he averages around 14.2 mil. per year. Wilk won't be touching that but it's a benchmark I guess.

 

Gerald McCoy (26, TB)

Signed a 6 year, 95 mil. contract a couple months ago with over 51 mil. guaranteed. Averages around 15.8 mil. per year. He is/was considered to be one of the top DT's in the league, he was basically as a 4-3 DT what Wilk is in a 3-4 defense, very comparable. Wilk is more valuable in my book because of how much he can do, he's much more versatile. McCoy is just good at rushing from the inside and I thought the Buccs overpaid for him but whatever. Look at all the other terrible deals they've done in the past (Michael Johnson, McCown, Vincent Jackson, Revis). Just a mess.

 

Marcell Dareus (25, BUF)

Would have been a good guy to compare to, but he's in a similar situation and waiting for a long term deal. I think they got drafted in the same year. Plus he's not exactly the sharpest apple in the crayon box. There's no way he makes more than Mo.

 

Geno Atkins (26, CIN)

Very similar to McCoy. He was considered the best pass rushing DT when he signed the deal, now it's probably McCoy. Either way, the Bengals did a better job. He got a 5 year, 53 mil. contract two years ago with 15 mil. guaranteed. Averages 10.6 mil. per year.

 

Personally if I were [insert whoever is going to be our GM] I'd offer Wilk a 4 year, 50 mil. deal with around 30 mil. guaranteed. While I love Wilk, he just has no leverage right now. He's not gonna play on a 1 year deal for the nex 2 years. It makes no sense. His play could fall off, he could get hurt, he's getting older. It wouldn't make sense for him to get his first big contract at age 27 or 28. He's not gonna get another big deal after that. If he signs a slightly smaller deal now he's gonna be way better off. He will be taken care of and he can shoot for another big deal 3-4 years later if he outplays his contract. Sounds reasonable to me.

[FidelioJet]

4 years and 50 is just too much.  We all love this guy and he's very good - but not as good as Jet fans make him..He's a good player but not worth $12.5 a year

 

4 years 40 - with 20mm

or 5 and 50 with - 25mm

 

That's a lot of money for a guy that doesn't regularly get to the QB...

[AFJF]

4 years and 50 is just too much.  We all love this guy and he's very good - but not as good as Jet fans make him..He's a good player but not worth $12.5 a year

 

4 years 40 - with 20mm

or 5 and 50 with - 25mm

 

That's a lot of money for a guy that doesn't regularly get to the QB...

 

Outside of Watt, 3-4 DE's don't get to the QB.  No other 3-4 DE in the  NFL had double-digit sacks last season per pff.  Sheldon was second to Watt with 9, and Mo missed several games and finished with 7.  Go to a 4-3 and those numbers will increase significantly IMO.

[DaBallhawk]

Wilk does all the things Watt does, just not quite as good. They both get moved around a lot, they both do more than just play DE in the 3-4 and stuff the run. The play so many different positions, they contribute in a lot of ways. But like I said, Watt does it better, he has the numbers to back it up. Calais Campbell makes 11 mil. per year and he signed that deal 3 years ago. There's no way Wilk takes less or even the same type of deal now with more money to spend and when he's just a way better player than Campbell.

[KRL]

Wilkerson missing the last few games hurt his "stats" which may shave some $$$ of his

deal.  He's getting around 7 million next year, I could see the new GM tacking on 4 more

years at 40 million.  So in total his deal could be 5 years 47 million with around 20 million

guaranteed

[FidelioJet]

Outside of Watt, 3-4 DE's don't get to the QB.  No other 3-4 DE in the  NFL had double-digit sacks last season per pff.  Sheldon was second to Watt with 9, and Mo missed several games and finished with 7.  Go to a 4-3 and those numbers will increase significantly IMO.

 

That's my point - I realize the position isn't designed to get to the QB - but the fact is that's not what he does and we know how far a top run defense gets us...

 

Again - he's a nice player and I want him and willing to pay a lot but I wouldn't go a penny over $10mm a year.

[FidelioJet]

Wilkerson missing the last few games hurt his "stats" which may shave some $$$ of his

deal.  He's getting around 7 million next year, I could see the new GM tacking on 4 more

years at 40 million.  So in total his deal could be 5 years 47 million with around 20 million

guaranteed

 

And how much did the defense miss him in those games?  

[AFJF]

And how much did the defense miss him in those games?  

 

That's a different discussion.  My point was to your comment about his inability to get to the QB.  The best player on the planet gets to the QB from that spot, but nobody else does.

[AFJF]

That's my point - I realize the position isn't designed to get to the QB - but the fact is that's not what he does and we know how far a top run defense gets us...

 

Again - he's a nice player and I want him and willing to pay a lot but I wouldn't go a penny over $10mm a year.

 

I'd go between 12-13 mil, but no more than that.

[BallinPB]

10-11  per year sounds about right. 

[BroadwayJoe12]

He already saw what a toe injury can due, he could gamble on his health and play like Suh did, but he should be receptive to ~$30 mill guaranteed and comparative annual. Most avg are artificially inflated, but ~$10 sounds good. I love the guy and he's amazing, but he's not as disruptive as Watt, Quinn or Suh and I don't think he should see $40-$50 mill guaranteed. But a deal would be nice.

[#27TheDominator]

This is what Jason had to say about Wilkerson:

 

 

Defensive End Muhammad Wilkerson is not coming off the kind of season he had in 2013, which should make for an easier negotiation. If they work quickly to extend him they can roll his $6.969 million salary into his new contract guarantee, giving them more long term protection if he plays poorly. It’s a hard position to gauge but he will likely end up as an $11M-$12M a year player and the Jets gain nothing by waiting to extend him.

http://overthecap.com/jets-2015-salary-cap-outlook/

 

He is usually spot on with these evaluations.  

[DaBallhawk]

This is what Jason had to say about Wilkerson:

http://overthecap.com/jets-2015-salary-cap-outlook/

 

He is usually spot on with these evaluations.  

 

Sounds like he knows what he's talking about. I also agree with many of the points he made in regards to Harvin, CJ, Wilkerson etc.

[vincenzo69]

Do not extend. We have way too many holes in the secondary, LB and on offense. Let Wilk earn his pay day going nuts for us next season and worse comes to worse we franchise him after next year.

[vincenzo69]

And how much did the defense miss him in those games?

We didnt. Coples filled in at DE and was excellent and Babin played capably at Olb. If we change to 4-3 we end up with 4 guys (ellis, snacks, richardson, wilk) for 2 DT spots yes you are supposed to do rotations but we'd still have enough depth for that anyway.

[#27TheDominator]

Isn't the franchise tag for DE like $15M? Nothing to sneeze at.  Wilkerson is an excellent player.  They should make every effort to lock him up.  

[vincenzo69]

Isn't the franchise tag for DE like $15M? Nothing to sneeze at.  Wilkerson is an excellent player.  They should make every effort to lock him up.

So we should rush and commit $12 mil of our cap space this year when we have holes galore on the roster and then commit another $50 mil over the next 5 years. The 49ers need a DE see if they give us something.

[#27TheDominator]

So we should rush and commit $12 mil of our cap space this year when we have holes galore on the roster and then commit another $50 mil over the next 5 years. The 49ers need a DE see if they give us something.

 

This argument might have merit if the team had cap problems.  They have to spend on somebody.  Mo has shown no indication he will slack after his contract.  These constant Madden trade scenarios are silly. 

[JiF]

Always cracks me up how our fanbase is so obsessed with the price tag of a player.  Its not your money.  Why do you care?  Any decent GM can figure out how to make the cap work with a couple of expensive pieces.  You really want to see Mo Wilk in another jersey?  Like Revis?  No.

 

Mo Wilk is really ******* good.  He's home grown. Pay the man and move the **** on already. Though we're probably waiting for the GM and that's the first move he makes (assuming Casserly has already picked our Head Coach). lulz

[Jetsfan80]

So we should rush and commit $12 mil of our cap space this year when we have holes galore on the roster and then commit another $50 mil over the next 5 years. The 49ers need a DE see if they give us something.

 

So, to you, the best strategy for a team with a lot of holes is to trade our best player away for unknown pieces and create another hole?  lol.  If we deal him away we'd be having to replace him and hope his replacement puts up equal productivity for a lesser pricetag.  Not happening.

 

The best teams draft quality players AND keep them around rather than always taking the "grass is greener" approach.  Mo is one you bite the bullet on and spend to keep.  He's versatile and a fit for whatever defense our next regime wants to run.  Those guys don't grow on trees.

[Savage69]

Wilk does all the things Watt does, just not quite as good. They both get moved around a lot, they both do more than just play DE in the 3-4 and stuff the run. The play so many different positions, they contribute in a lot of ways. But like I said, Watt does it better, he has the numbers to back it up. Calais Campbell makes 11 mil. per year and he signed that deal 3 years ago. There's no way Wilk takes less or even the same type of deal now with more money to spend and when he's just a way better player than Campbell.

How many TD's does he have?? Sheldon has 2 rushing td's..

[FidelioJet]

This argument might have merit if the team had cap problems.  They have to spend on somebody.  Mo has shown no indication he will slack after his contract.  These constant Madden trade scenarios are silly. 

 

This large cap space that everyone's is making out to be an endless supply of money is going to get spent very quickly.  The Jets have a lot of holes....

 

We need  quality starters/upgrades at at least these spots ...CB, OT, Guard, MLB, QB, WR.  $40mm doesn't go all that far when you have that many holes.  If you give $12mm to Mo that least about $28mm for 6 players...

[vincenzo69]

This argument might have merit if the team had cap problems.  They have to spend on somebody.  Mo has shown no indication he will slack after his contract.

yeah spend it fixing the umpteen holes at Wr, Cb, Olb, FS, SS, LG, RG, Qb and Tight End.

[sg3]

I'm going to just let our new GM from the Texans handle this.

The only possible change is that the Dolphins new hire might offer us a trade for him along the lines of their first and second this year and firsts in 16 and 17 so can sign Mo to a 6 year 100 mill deal with 70 mill guaranteed and successfully begin his mission of blowing their cap to smithereens

[DaBallhawk]

How many TD's does he have?? Sheldon has 2 rushing td's..

 

Scoring TD's (on offense) is hardly something I'd consider when judging or grading defenders. It's not like a decent TE or FB/RB can't catch the passes Watt caught or score the way Sheldon scored. Wilkerson played basketball, with his size, athletic & ball skills he could easily score touchdowns on offense as a receiver the way Watt does. Not sure why we don't use him in that capacity. Maybe that will change. Maybe it's just pointless.

[roscoeword]

We always had a good DL with Rex, whether with Pouha or Devito... we should have drafted offensive players during the Rex years, because Rex is good at scheming on defense, and we don't need 4 all pros on the DL. Oh well, I guess it's too late.

[#27TheDominator]

This large cap space that everyone's is making out to be an endless supply of money is going to get spent very quickly.  The Jets have a lot of holes....

 

We need  quality starters/upgrades at at least these spots ...CB, OT, Guard, MLB, QB, WR.  $40mm doesn't go all that far when you have that many holes.  If you give $12mm to Mo that least about $28mm for 6 players...

 

 

yeah spend it fixing the umpteen holes at Wr, Cb, Olb, FS, SS, LG, RG, Qb and Tight End.

 

I think it is closer to $50M.  Guards, TEs and safeties should be fairly cheap.  I know I touted his site before, but Jason knows what he is talking about.  I don't always agree with his player evals, but he is rarely far off on contracts.  Check the graphs.  The Jets are below NFL average spending at every level on defense.  They are way above NFL average at two positions:  O line and WR.  Throwing money at a problem does not constitute fixing it.  Wilkerson is not a problem.  Letting him walk certainly might be.  I'm not saying to sign him at any cost, but he is an excellent player, captive as far as negotiations and has been anything but a problem as far as effort and the lockerroom.  To automatically let him walk or trade him is pretty ******* dopey. 

 

http://overthecap.com/jets-2015-salary-cap-outlook/

[FidelioJet]

I think it is closer to $50M.  Guards, TEs and safeties should be fairly cheap.  I know I touted his site before, but Jason knows what he is talking about.  I don't always agree with his player evals, but he is rarely far off on contracts.  Check the graphs.  The Jets are below NFL average spending at every level on defense.  They are way above NFL average at two positions:  O line and WR.  Throwing money at a problem does not constitute fixing it.  Wilkerson is not a problem.  Letting him walk certainly might be.  I'm not saying to sign him at any cost, but he is an excellent player, captive as far as negotiations and has been anything but a problem as far as effort and the lockerroom.  To automatically let him walk or trade him is pretty ******* dopey. 

 

http://overthecap.com/jets-2015-salary-cap-outlook/

 

Agreed - just letting him walk and not making an attempt to keep him would be terrible...But when it's your deepest position and you have a lot of holes, where are you thin, you do have to look at what else you can get for that same money.  If you can spend it more wisely you should certainly consider it.

[Savage69]

We always had a good DL with Rex, whether with Pouha or Devito... we should have drafted offensive players during the Rex years, because Rex is good at scheming on defense, and we don't need 4 all pros on the DL. Oh well, I guess it's too late.

Drafted maybe but the players Tanny brought in on offense Braylon,Holmes,LT,Harvin,Woody,Faneca were all former 1st rd picks. Granted some were on the tail end of their careers but they were good players.. In Rex's time with the Jets more O players where drafted then D players the problem was all the high picks were D except for Ducasse,Hill and Amaro and the whole 3 pick 2009 draft..

[DaBallhawk]

Agreed - just letting him walk and not making an attempt to keep him would be terrible...But when it's your deepest position and you have a lot of holes, where are you thin, you do have to look at what else you can get for that same money.  If you can spend it more wisely you should certainly consider it.

 

On a Tackle? Are you out of your mind?

[jetrider]

Drafted maybe but the players Tanny brought in on offense Braylon,Holmes,LT,Harvin,Woody,Faneca were all former number 1 picks. Granted some were on the tail end of their careers but they were good players.. In Rex's time with the Jets more O players where drafted then D players the problem was all the high picks were D except for Ducasse,Hill and Amaro and the whole 3 pick 2009 draft..

 

You mean all were 1st rounders. But that's a good point.

[Savage69]

You mean all were 1st rounders. But that's a good point.

Yep what you said..I'll correct it good catch..

[FidelioJet]

On a Tackle? Are you out of your mind?

 

I'm confused?

 

You don't think Jets have a lot of holes? and don't think they need to upgrade at OT?  

[DaBallhawk]

I'm confused?

 

You don't think Jets have a lot of holes? and don't think they need to upgrade at OT?  

 

At tackle? We just signed Breno to a big contract. Brick is a rock solid LT, still playing at a high level and shutting pass rushers down. I agree with the rest. QB & CB are #1 priority in my book, then we should look at some LB's (MLB & OLB) and maybe a receiver.

[FidelioJet]

At tackle? We just signed Breno to a big contract. Brick is a rock solid LT, still playing at a high level and shutting pass rushers down. I agree with the rest. QB & CB are #1 priority in my book, then we should look at some LB's (MLB & OLB) and maybe a receiver.

I don't know the parameters of Giacomini's deal - I know it was 4 years - something less than $20mm (I think ) - don't know the guarantee's and cap hit if cut.

 

But I would love to upgrade there...