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Bellicheat Speaks 1/24/15~~


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Well, as I have said, the pressure increase needs to be independently verified. But it is certainly possible that rubbing the balls could increase the inside temperature enough to cause an increase in pressure. Does not seem likely to me, but it's possible and somebody other than the Pats should test it out, hopefully the league guys conducting the investigation.

They'd really have to be rubbing the sh*t out of those balls right before they handed them to the refs for verification. Do you honestly believe there are a few guys rubbing the sh*t out of the balls to heat them up enough for this immediately before handing them over?

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I would presume the procedure is not done "all week," but rather just before they give the balls to the officials for testing. That way if the rubbing process really does increase the pressure, that increased pressure would still be present when the officials do the testing. In that case, the officials would actually have to let air out of the balls if they honor the Pats' request of 12.5 psi.

So maybe you should take your own advice, as bolded above,

I don't think you realize how much rubbing they would have to do and for an extended time period to heat them up enough for the heat to transfer to the air and heat it up enough to increase the psi. Leather is not even close to having good heat transfer properties either, not to mention the rubber or polyurethane bladder is even worse for heat transfer.

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Once the officials place the footballs on the sideline, there are only two people who handle the balls; the ball boy and the officials themselves.

I highly doubt the officials deflated them, so that leaves the ball boy.

If anyone on the Patriots approached the ball boy during the game it would definitely be captured on video, as CBS used 21 cameras for the AFCCG.

So if the ball boy didn't do it, someone else had to manipulate the balls during the game. Video of that would be the smoking gun that the Patriots cheated.

So then Belichick lied last night is what you're saying?

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Bill Nye "The Science Guy" says Bill Belichick made no sense

Posted by Mike Florio on January 25, 2015, 10:27 AM EST
nye.jpg?w=250Getty Images

We’ll be posting the entire transcript of Bill Belichick’s Saturday press conference so that anyone interested in reading the whole thing can review it, process it, understand it.  One fairly famous scientist who presumably listened to the entire press conference and/or read the transcript already has issued a verdict.

Bill Nye, a mechanical engineer who worked at Boeing before becoming TV’s “Bill Nye The Science Guy,” appeared on Sunday’s Good Morning America to say Belichick’s explanation “doesn’t make any sense.”

Another group based in Pittsburgh that includes brainiacs from Carnegie Mellon (somehow, I was admitted there and graduated with a degree a metallurgical engineering and materials sciences and a degree in engineering and public policy) claims that the conditions of the AFC title game would have caused a significant drop in air pressure.

“We took 12 brand new authentic NFL footballs and exposed them to the different elements they would have experienced throughout the game.” said Thomas Healy, founder of HeadSmart Labs and a masters student in mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon.  “Out of the twelve footballs we tested, we found that on average, footballs dropped 1.8 PSI when being exposed to dropping temperatures and wet conditions.”

As explained by the group that conducted the simulation:  “During testing, twelve brand new footballs were inflated to 12.5 PSI in a 75 degree Fahrenheit room.  This was to imitate the indoor conditions where the referees would have tested the footballs 2 hours and 15 minutes before kickoff.  The footballs were then moved to a 50 degree Fahrenheit environment to simulate the temperatures that were experienced throughout the game.  In addition, the footballs were dampened to replicate the rainy conditions.”

It’s unclear whether the footballs were placed in a wet, 50-degree environment immediately after testing for a full 135 minutes before kickoff or whether they waited until just before kickoff to move the footballs to the simulated game conditions.  It’s also unclear whether the various balls were exposed to the same external forces to which a dozen footballs used by an NFL offense would be exposed when rotated through the first half of a game.  It’s also unclear whether re-testing of the footballs was done following the precise duration of the first half of the Colts-Patriots game.

Precision is critical for any scientific experiment.  For example, the official kickoff temperature in Foxboro on Sunday was 51 degrees, not 50.  To fully simulate the conditions, the test should have occurred at 51 degrees.  Also, room temperature typically is 72 degrees, not 75.  That results in a four-degree variance, which surely had an impact on the ultimate findings, since pressure and temperature are directly related.

Overlooked by the CMU folks (and Belichick, and others) was the reported ability of the Colts’ footballs to remain within the accepted range of 12.5 to 13.5 PSI after the same duration of exposure to the same elements and conditions.  If, on average, the footballs tested at a starting PSI lost 1.8 pounds on average (i.e., 14.4 percent of their air pressure), footballs pumped even to the maximum of 13.5 PSI would have lost 1.94 PSI on average, taking them to 11.56, nearly a full bound below the minimum limit.

Look for more scientists in the coming days to emerge from their labs with more experiments and more explanations.  Ultimately, the NFL will need to offer a convincing explanation for whatever it was that caused the NFL to hire the guy who performed the Dolphins bullying investigation to get to the bottom of why the Patriots footballs were not within the required specifications.

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But it is certainly possible that rubbing the balls could increase the inside temperature enough to cause an increase in pressure

this kind of science can only occur in pats land. Foxboro is considered part of the bermuda triangle. 1 of 3 places on earth where science does not add up.fact

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Wow.....just wow.

 

Let's just even assume the story concocted by Belichick is true. Even then the pressure drop would be percentages and not drop absolute 1 psi and say enough. I am sure it doesn't take a mathematical genius to figure that the percentage drop from 12.5 to 11.5 is not the same as percentage drop from 13.5 to 12.5. Right there even is you ASSUME that Belichick was correct his argument falls through. Not to mention that stubborn 12th ball which just smacks the argument back in Belichick's face.

 

At the end of the day Belichick's statement's sounds like getting the pressure of the ball right is such a hard thing to do which the Colts and all other teams in football who also prepare the ball seem to get  repeatedly right with remarkable consistency.

 

This is just Beli trying to create some doubt. I would have never thought anyone would fall for that such BS. But looks like he has succeeded.

 

Right now Bellichik's claim regarding his testing are all we have to go on. But I have said repeatedly this needs to be independently verified. If it can't be verified the explanation does not hold. As for the percent drop, I think the difference between the starting pressures is close enough to fall within the measurement error. To use the percentage argument, you need to use the absolute pressure in the balls, meaning you need to add the earth's atmospheric pressure of 14.7 psi to each pressure. So the Pats' ball started at 12.5 +14.7 =27.2 psi, while the Colt's ball started at 13.5 + 14.7=28.2psi. So the two balls start at less than  4% different pressure. So if 1 psi temperature drop occurs for the 12.5 psi ball, a 1.04 psi drop occurs for the 13.5 psi ball. Almost an identical drop in both cases, and it probably isn't possible to see the difference using the gauges used to test the balls.

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They'd really have to be rubbing the sh*t out of those balls right before they handed them to the refs for verification. Do you honestly believe there are a few guys rubbing the sh*t out of the balls to heat them up enough for this immediately before handing them over?

I am extremely skeptical that the rubbing procedure increases the pressure as much as Bellichik claimed. But it should be easy enough for someone else to try it and see what happens. Let's hope the league guys do.

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I don't think you realize how much rubbing they would have to do and for an extended time period to heat them up enough for the heat to transfer to the air and heat it up enough to increase the psi. Leather is not even close to having good heat transfer properties either, not to mention the rubber or polyurethane bladder is even worse for heat transfer.

 

Great. Then when the method is tested independently what Bellichik said will be found to be false. I really do hope you are right and that's exactly what they find.

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(Forgive me in advance for possibly too scientific a post.)

 

Presumably many of you are aware of PV = nRT

 

The Volume of the ball is constant.  If n (the amount of air molecules) is also constant, then pressure is proportional to temperature.

 

Note that T needs to be specified *in Kelvin*.

 

70 F is 294 K.  50F is 283 K.  That's a 4% difference.  IOW, if the temperature of the *air* in the football drops from 70 to 50, the PSI drops by 4%.  (12.5 PSI -> 12 PSI)  I do not know anything about the insulation qualities of a football - so I don't know how quickly the temperature of the air in the football would reach the ambient temperature - especially when the footballs were being agitated constantly.  We've heard that the PSI actually dropped to 10.5 PSI, so even that full 4% isn't enough to explain.

 

Here's what I think.  Bellichick talked about their team's "preparation" of the footballs.  If they were to "prepare" the footballs with air heated to 161 F (345 K), they could use approximately 16% less air to get 12.5 PSI.    With such a high temperature gradient, I believe the hot air in the football would cool considerably in the 2 hours until game time.  If it reached say 290 K (62 F), its PSI would be 10.5.

 

No tampering with the footballs would be required - you just wait 2 hours for them to cool.  Would the footballs have felt suspiciously warm to the refs?  I have no idea - it depends on how well the leather of the ball conducts the heat.  And maybe the balls *do* feel warm to the refs, but the ball boy says something like "yeah, we rub them up, blah blah blah"...

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If anyone on the Patriots approached the ball boy during the game it would definitely be captured on video, as CBS used 21 cameras for the AFCCG.

So if the ball boy didn't do it, someone else had to manipulate the balls during the game. Video of that would be the smoking gun that the Patriots cheated.

They would not have had to contact the ball boy on that Sunday. It's obviously been standard procedure for the last 8 seasons.

I don't think anyone has any problem with what happened at the AFCCG. The fact that the Colts reported this after their game earlier in the season, and the Ravens warned the Colts of this last week, and then looking at the statistical data since 2007, it is pretty obvious that this action has been habitual.

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I am extremely skeptical that the rubbing procedure increases the pressure as much as Bellichik claimed. But it should be easy enough for someone else to try it and see what happens. Let's hope the league guys do.

As I said above - my guess is that their "preparation" is actually the injection of 160 F air into the football.  (Or just heating its existing air, while draining enough air so that the PSI is 12.5)

 

Which would mean that Bellichick was not technically lying in what he said!  (He didn't specifically say *how* he prepared the balls, did he?)  Go figure...

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(Forgive me in advance for possibly too scientific a post.)

Presumably many of you are aware of PV = nRT

The Volume of the ball is constant. If n (the amount of air molecules) is also constant, then pressure is proportional to temperature.

Note that T needs to be specified *in Kelvin*.

70 F is 294 K. 50F is 283 K. That's a 4% difference. IOW, if the temperature of the *air* in the football drops from 70 to 50, the PSI drops by 4%. (12.5 PSI -> 12 PSI) I do not know anything about the insulation qualities of a football - so I don't know how quickly the temperature of the air in the football would reach the ambient temperature - especially when the footballs were being agitated constantly. We've heard that the PSI actually dropped to 10.5 PSI, so even that full 4% isn't enough to explain.

Here's what I think. Bellichick talked about their team's "preparation" of the footballs. If they were to "prepare" the footballs with air heated to 161 F (345 K), they could use approximately 16% less air to get 12.5 PSI. With such a high temperature gradient, I believe the hot air in the football would cool considerably in the 2 hours until game time. If it reached say 290 K (62 F), its PSI would be 10.5.

No tampering with the footballs would be required - you just wait 2 hours for them to cool. Would the footballs have felt suspiciously warm to the refs? I have no idea - it depends on how well the leather of the ball conducts the heat. And maybe the balls *do* feel warm to the refs, but the ball boy says something like "yeah, we rub them up, blah blah blah"...

For the benefit of the entire board, Rutgers needs to put this post in laymans terms.

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So then Belichick lied last night is what you're saying?

No , impossible ...he raised his voice and put meanie face on...so I'm almost positive according to the coverage I've been watching that means he could not have been lying .
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(Forgive me in advance for possibly too scientific a post.)

 

Presumably many of you are aware of PV = nRT

 

The Volume of the ball is constant.  If n (the amount of air molecules) is also constant, then pressure is proportional to temperature.

 

Note that T needs to be specified *in Kelvin*.

 

70 F is 294 K.  50F is 283 K.  That's a 4% difference.  IOW, if the temperature of the *air* in the football drops from 70 to 50, the PSI drops by 4%.  (12.5 PSI -> 12 PSI)  I do not know anything about the insulation qualities of a football - so I don't know how quickly the temperature of the air in the football would reach the ambient temperature - especially when the footballs were being agitated constantly.  We've heard that the PSI actually dropped to 10.5 PSI, so even that full 4% isn't enough to explain.

 

Here's what I think.  Bellichick talked about their team's "preparation" of the footballs.  If they were to "prepare" the footballs with air heated to 161 F (345 K), they could use approximately 16% less air to get 12.5 PSI.    With such a high temperature gradient, I believe the hot air in the football would cool considerably in the 2 hours until game time.  If it reached say 290 K (62 F), its PSI would be 10.5.

 

No tampering with the footballs would be required - you just wait 2 hours for them to cool.  Would the footballs have felt suspiciously warm to the refs?  I have no idea - it depends on how well the leather of the ball conducts the heat.  And maybe the balls *do* feel warm to the refs, but the ball boy says something like "yeah, we rub them up, blah blah blah"...

 

I think you did the calculation incorrectly, possibly not using the absolute pressure inside the ball (which includes an extra 14.7 psi for each ball). Using all absolute numbers, a temperature drop from 70 F to 50 F results in a 1 psi drop. I checked that result myself, but that is the amount of drop indicated by the physics prof who commented on this recently. I didn't check his second claim, which was that a 2 psi drop would occur starting from 80 F and dropping to 50 F, but I don't have any reason to doubt it is right. So the balls would only have to be prepared to 80 F for the 2 psi drop to occur. 

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As I said above - my guess is that their "preparation" is actually the injection of 160 F air into the football.  (Or just heating its existing air, while draining enough air so that the PSI is 12.5)

 

Which would mean that Bellichick was not technically lying in what he said!  (He didn't specifically say *how* he prepared the balls, did he?)  Go figure...

Don't think your results are correct.

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For the benefit of the entire board, Rutgers needs to put this post in laymans terms.

It's easy. If bellicheat filled the balls to 12.5 psi using air heated to 161F when the air cooled to normal the pressure would be about 2 psi less. It would still be cheating. I didn't check the math but thats what he is saying

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LOLZ MT @KNegandhiESPN: "What he said didn't make any sense." - Bill Nye the Science Guy on GMA today weighing in on Belichick's presser

Bill Nye says Bill Belichick made no sense

Posted by Mike Florio on January 25, 2015, 10:27 AM EST

Nye

Getty Images

We’ll be posting the entire transcript of Bill Belichick’s Saturday press conference so that anyone interested in reading the whole thing can review it, process it, understand it. One fairly famous scientist who presumably listened to the entire press conference and/or read the transcript already has issued a verdict.

Bill Nye, a mechanical engineer who worked at Boeing before becoming TV’s “Bill Nye The Science Guy,” appeared on Sunday’s Good Morning America to say Belichick’s explanation “doesn’t make any sense.”

Another group based in Pittsburgh that includes brainiacs from Carnegie Mellon (somehow, I was admitted there and graduated with a degree a metallurgical engineering and materials sciences and a degree in engineering and public policy) claims that the conditions of the AFC title game would have caused a significant drop in air pressure.

“We took 12 brand new authentic NFL footballs and exposed them to the different elements they would have experienced throughout the game.” said Thomas Healy, founder of HeadSmart Labs and a masters student in mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon. “Out of the twelve footballs we tested, we found that on average, footballs dropped 1.8 PSI when being exposed to dropping temperatures and wet conditions.”

As explained by the group that conducted the simulation: “During testing, twelve brand new footballs were inflated to 12.5 PSI in a 75 degree Fahrenheit room. This was to imitate the indoor conditions where the referees would have tested the footballs 2 hours and 15 minutes before kickoff. The footballs were then moved to a 50 degree Fahrenheit environment to simulate the temperatures that were experienced throughout the game. In addition, the footballs were dampened to replicate the rainy conditions.”

It’s unclear whether the footballs were placed in a wet, 50-degree environment immediately after testing for a full 135 minutes before kickoff or whether they waited until just before kickoff to move the footballs to the simulated game conditions. It’s also unclear whether the various balls were exposed to the same external forces to which a dozen footballs used by an NFL offense would be exposed when rotated through the first half of a game. It’s also unclear whether re-testing of the footballs was done following the precise duration of the first half of the Colts-Patriots game.

Precision is critical for any scientific experiment. For example, the official kickoff temperature in Foxboro on Sunday was 51 degrees, not 50. To fully simulate the conditions, the test should have occurred at 51 degrees. Also, room temperature typically is 72 degrees, not 75. That results in a four-degree variance, which surely had an impact on the ultimate findings, since pressure and temperature are directly related.

Overlooked by the CMU folks (and Belichick, and others) was the reported ability of the Colts’ footballs to remain within the accepted range of 12.5 to 13.5 PSI after the same duration of exposure to the same elements and conditions. If, on average, the footballs tested at a starting PSI lost 1.8 pounds on average (i.e., 14.4 percent of their air pressure), footballs pumped even to the maximum of 13.5 PSI would have lost 1.94 PSI on average, taking them to 11.56, nearly a full bound below the minimum limit.

Look for more scientists in the coming days to emerge from their labs with more experiments and more explanations. Ultimately, the NFL will need to offer a convincing explanation for whatever it was that caused the NFL to hire the guy who performed the Dolphins bullying investigation to get to the bottom of why the Patriots footballs were not within the required specifications.

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(Forgive me in advance for possibly too scientific a post.)

Presumably many of you are aware of PV = nRT

The Volume of the ball is constant. If n (the amount of air molecules) is also constant, then pressure is proportional to temperature.

Note that T needs to be specified *in Kelvin*.

70 F is 294 K. 50F is 283 K. That's a 4% difference. IOW, if the temperature of the *air* in the football drops from 70 to 50, the PSI drops by 4%. (12.5 PSI -> 12 PSI) I do not know anything about the insulation qualities of a football - so I don't know how quickly the temperature of the air in the football would reach the ambient temperature - especially when the footballs were being agitated constantly. We've heard that the PSI actually dropped to 10.5 PSI, so even that full 4% isn't enough to explain.

Here's what I think. Bellichick talked about their team's "preparation" of the footballs. If they were to "prepare" the footballs with air heated to 161 F (345 K), they could use approximately 16% less air to get 12.5 PSI. With such a high temperature gradient, I believe the hot air in the football would cool considerably in the 2 hours until game time. If it reached say 290 K (62 F), its PSI would be 10.5.

No tampering with the footballs would be required - you just wait 2 hours for them to cool. Would the footballs have felt suspiciously warm to the refs? I have no idea - it depends on how well the leather of the ball conducts the heat. And maybe the balls *do* feel warm to the refs, but the ball boy says something like "yeah, we rub them up, blah blah blah"...

I had read this possible explanation the other day, and there's one major reason why I don't believe it: I believe that if this is what the Pats were doing, they'd freely admit it. The rules state that the ball has to be inflated to a certain pressure, with no mention of the temperature. They would still be following the letter of the law (one of Beli's favorite phrases) if they took the balls out of a football kiln for the refs to inspect, then let them soften naturally in the colder weather.

Belichick is an innovator in that the league seems to have to address their rules based on his abuse of them. I'd look for the football pressure rule to be amended to 12.5-13.5 psi at the temperature on the field at the start of the game.

But no, I'm pretty sure someone is just letting some air out of them after the refs inspect them at the direction of Tom Brady, with the consent of Bill Belichick.

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I had read this possible explanation the other day, and there's one major reason why I don't believe it: I believe that if this is what the Pats were doing, they'd freely admit it. The rules state that the ball has to be inflated to a certain pressure, with no mention of the temperature. They would still be following the letter of the law (one of Beli's favorite phrases) if they took the balls out of a football kiln for the refs to inspect, then let them soften naturally in the colder weather.

Belichick is an innovator in that the league seems to have to address their rules based on his abuse of them. I'd look for the football pressure rule to be amended to 12.5-13.5 psi at the temperature on the field at the start of the game.

I think that artificially heating the balls in an attempt to get them to a lower game time psi would still be considered cheating

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Since there are a lot of questionable calculations  in this thread, it may be worthwhile to post the quote from the physics prof I mentioned earlier:

 

“Say you inflate the ball to 12.5 PSI — the NFL minimum — in a room at 70 degrees, and then used the ball outside where it was 50 degrees. That 12.5 PSI would eventually become 11.5 PSI,” Naughton said. “If you inflate the ball to 12.5 PSI in an even warmer room where it was, say, 80 degrees, and then played outdoors at 40 degrees, that 12.5 PSI would become 10.5 PSI — a drop of two PSIs.”

I checked his result for the 70 deg to 50 deg drop, and I also got a 1 psi drop in pressure for that case. Just noticed that his second result is for a drop to 40 degrees, so it does not really apply. 

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I think you did the calculation incorrectly, possibly not using the absolute pressure inside the ball (which includes an extra 14.7 psi for each ball). Using all absolute numbers, a temperature drop from 70 F to 50 F results in a 1 psi drop. I checked that result myself, but that is the amount of drop indicated by the physics prof who commented on this recently. I didn't check his second claim, which was that a 2 psi drop would occur starting from 80 F and dropping to 50 F, but I don't have any reason to doubt it is right. So the balls would only have to be prepared to 80 F for the 2 psi drop to occur. 

 

Huh?  I'm not following you.

 

I'm stating that the pressure inside the ball is proportional to the temperature (in Kelvin).  That's not a "calculation" - it's a direct consequence of the Ideal gas law.

 

A 70 F to 50 F drop is a 4% decrease in Kelvin.  1 PSI is 8%, not 4%.  Please explain how your calculation is different.

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I had read this possible explanation the other day, and there's one major reason why I don't believe it: I believe that if this is what the Pats were doing, they'd freely admit it. The rules state that the ball has to be inflated to a certain pressure, with no mention of the temperature. They would still be following the letter of the law (one of Beli's favorite phrases) if they took the balls out of a football kiln for the refs to inspect, then let them soften naturally in the colder weather.

Belichick is an innovator in that the league seems to have to address their rules based on his abuse of them. I'd look for the football pressure rule to be amended to 12.5-13.5 psi at the temperature on the field at the start of the game.

But no, I'm pretty sure someone is just letting some air out of them after the refs inspect them at the direction of Tom Brady, with the consent of Bill Belichick.

 

I think his comments were "we've followed all the rules" etc.  He knows he'll get totally skewered if he just admits "Oh, sure, we super-heat the balls before their weigh-in".

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That's like having Joran van der Sloot conduct his own polygraph test.

Yeah really. It's hysterical that bellicheat comes out and says "hey guys I looked into out procedures and I found that we don't cheat at all". Are we just supposed to say "ok that settles that, bill says he's not guilty"
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I think you did the calculation incorrectly, possibly not using the absolute pressure inside the ball (which includes an extra 14.7 psi for each ball). Using all absolute numbers, a temperature drop from 70 F to 50 F results in a 1 psi drop. I checked that result myself, but that is the amount of drop indicated by the physics prof who commented on this recently. I didn't check his second claim, which was that a 2 psi drop would occur starting from 80 F and dropping to 50 F, but I don't have any reason to doubt it is right. So the balls would only have to be prepared to 80 F for the 2 psi drop to occur.

I haven't looked at the equation but I'm wondering why are we adding 14.7? The atmospheric pressure is the same inside and outside the ball Resulting in a net of zero.

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Huh?  I'm not following you.

 

I'm stating that the pressure inside the ball is proportional to the temperature (in Kelvin).  That's not a "calculation" - it's a direct consequence of the Ideal gas law.

 

A 70 F to 50 F drop is a 4% decrease in Kelvin.  1 PSI is 8%, not 4%.  Please explain how your calculation is different.

 

In the ideal gas law you need to use all absolute numbers. So you need to add the 14,7 psi atmospheric pressure to the 12.5 psi value, getting the starting absolute pressure to be 27.2 psi. Also, using percents is not correct. You need to set up an equation using the starting pressure and starting temperature and the ending pressure and ending temperature. Both pressures and temperatures need to be in absolute measurements. Then you solve that equation for the ending pressure. The result is a 1 psi drop in pressure resulting from a temperature drop from 70 F to 50 F.

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