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Jets Trade Down on Draft Day Could be More Reality Than Fantasy


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Maccagnan

By Glenn Naughton

 

It happens every year around this time.  Once football season comes to an end, fans turn their attention to the NFL draft.  It’s a day that represents a new beginning and reason for hope.  Teams that suffered through the worst of the worst during the regular season are given the first crack at getting a struggling franchise back on track and heading in the right direction.

It seems that  no matter the team, no matter the draft slot and no matter prospects, there will always be those fans screaming for their team to “trade down and grab more picks”.  It’s an understandable approach for teams who more often than not need multiple players to fill out a roster that’s lacking talent.  All too often however, the trade down scenario is just a pipe dream.  General managers place a great deal of value on their early round selections and will often steer clear of the price tag attached to a first round trade-up.

If and when it does happen, how often is “your” team going to be in the spot that the team looking to move up covets most?  How reasonable is the scenario being pitched by the fans and pundits?  There are a lot of moving parts with these deals, but in looking at the New York Jets who own the sixth overall pick, they may be in the perfect position to move down and acquire multiple picks, while filling their biggest need and adding a quality young quarterback at the same time.

For months, the number one selection in the draft was expected to be one of two quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota out of Oregon or Jameis Winston of Florida State.  The thought of either one falling to the Jets at number six would have been laughed at not long ago.  However, if you’re willing to put any stock at all into what some draftniks are saying, Mariota may very well be sitting there when the Jets are on the clock.

Three different experts are now projecting Mariota to the Jets at number six while NFL.com analyst Bucky Brooks has him falling all the way to the Chiefs at no. 18.  While a free-fall like that is fairly unlikely, Mariota to the Jets isn’t all that far-fetched.

Of the two players, Winston is considered by many to be the more NFL-ready quarterback, and of course he plays in the state of Florida.  That, plus his on-field production has several outlets claiming that Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith would like nothing more than to take Winston first overall.

Between that top pick and the Jets’ pick at number six, there are four teams who already have what they believe to be their franchise quarterbacks in the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders and Redskins.

Of those teams, the Titans and Redskins are the wild cards on draft day.  Last season the Titans selected quarterback Zach Mettenberger in the sixth round.  That’s hardly a  huge investment, but it’s believed that the Titans are very happy with what they’ve seen from him thus far and would like to stay with him at this point.  With his low salary cap charge, the Titans could afford to take Mariota and opt to trade the loser of a head-to-head competition if they’re that high on the Oregon product.  A very unlikely scenario, but stranger things have happened.

Both the Jaguars and Raiders selected their franchise quarterbacks last season in Blake Bortles and Derek Carr which makes Mariota to either one of those teams a virtual impossibility.  At number five, the Washington Redskins have  embattled quarterback Robert Griffin. While there have been rumblings of a Griffin trade, it’s believed that owner Daniel Snyder would like to hold on to the face of his franchise, especially considering what he gave up to get him.  While Snyder is just the type of owner who might be willing to make a splash and select Mariota, doing so would mean he will have spent four first round picks on two quarterbacks in the last four years…ouch.

Should the Redskins pass, that would leave the Jets on the clock with Mariota  there for the taking.  For any team interested in moving up to take Mariota, they would have to realize that the Jets pose the biggest threat in the top six picks to select him.  Even if he has some of the physical limitations that make him a system quarterback as some claim, Mariota still represents the Jets best option to fill a decades-old vacancy through the draft.  Any effort to make a deal with the Jets would have to be based on a willingness to give up not only draft picks, but a promising young quarterback as well.  Hello, Chip Kelly.

When the Philadelphia Eagles made Kelly their head coach two years ago having built one of the most high-powered offenses in college football history while at Oregon, the hope was that they would get more of the same in the NFL.   In year one under Kelly and with Foles at quarterback, they didn’t disappoint.  The second year quarterback took over for an injured Michael Vick early in the season and went on to post one of the most prolific passing seasons in NFL  history.  In Kelly’s up-tempo offense, Foles threw a staggering 27 touchdowns in just 13 starts, while tossing only 2 interceptions.  Much of this was a product of Kelly’s scheme and the unfamiliarity that NFL defenses had in stopping it, but a 27/2 TD/INT ratio with a 64% completion percentage is just too good to be written off under any circumstance.

In his other fifteen NFL games (7 in 2012 and 8 in 2014) Foles’ numbers aren’t nearly as impressive as his 27/2, but to hold anyone to that type of standard would be foolish.  Minus his mind-blowing numbers of two years ago, Foles has completed 60% of his passes while throwing 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.  He hardly lit the world on fire, but for anyone who saw his play this season with his starting LT suspended, his pro-bowl center missing chunks of time due to  injury, and a wildly inconsistent running game, his production and toughness were what  you would hope to get out of a young quarterback with limited experience.

Foles is still young with plenty of room to grow, but he’s not the ideal fit for Kelly’s offense the way Mariota is.  It’s also no accident that Kelly currently has eight of his former Oregon players on  his roster.  He wants to have his guys run his system, and his guy, the one he recruited to play for him at Oregon might be sitting there for the taking, if he’s willing to pay the price at number six.  It would be foolish to assume Kelly wouldn’t at least make a cursory phone call to Mike Maccagnan, especially since he’s been given full control over personnel decisions with the Eagles.

Unlike last season when the Jets were armed with a dozen draft picks, they’re likely to enter the draft this year with only six selections at their disposal, and plenty of holes to fill. Should the Jets deal for Foles, there would be plenty of talented players at #20 which is where the Eagles currently sit.  So, will this be the season when the pipe dream of hoarding picks to build for the future becomes a reality?  On April 30th, in Chicago, we’ll all find out.

 

 

 

 

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If we are so lucky as for this dream scenario to turn up and If Kelly is that hard up for Mariota he would be ripe for a good old fashioned f*ckin.  We simply tell him we are taking Mariota if he does

Jets need a ******* QB. Take Mariota if he's there. 

This.   If Chip is willing to give up so much - How does Mariotta get to six?  As noted in the article, two of the teams above us can very easily make a case that they're taking him (I think Tenn. w

If we are so lucky as for this dream scenario to turn up and If Kelly is that hard up for Mariota he would be ripe for a good old fashioned f*ckin.  We simply tell him we are taking Mariota if he doesn't pull the trigger. He loses what he considers "his" guy.  The price would be Foles, this years number one and 2 and next years 1 at a minimum.  He doesn't go for it , we get our QB of the future in Mariota.

We aren't the one's who have the boner. He is. Therefore we own all the cards.

it would be a wonderful thing to see the Jets be in the position of power for once. It's been a looooooooong time man.

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If we are so lucky as for this dream scenario to turn up and If Kelly is that hard up for Mariota he would be ripe for a good old fashioned f*ckin.  We simply tell him we are taking Mariota if he doesn't pull the trigger. He loses what he considers "his" guy.  The price would be Foles, this years number one and 2 and next years 1 at a minimum.  He doesn't go for it , we get our QB of the future in Mariota.

We aren't the one's who have the boner. He is. Therefore we own all the cards.

it would be a wonderful thing to see the Jets be in the position of power for once. It's been a looooooooong time man.

 

The number one topic on Philly radio for the past month has been Kelly's desire to add Mariota.  Normally I'd look at something like that as pure speculation, but again, he has EIGHT Oregon players on his roster.  He has shown that he wants as many of his guys as possible, and now the most important one could come be  his if he's willing to do what it takes to get up to #6.  The Jets can't overplay their hand and risk him getting a better offer from a team ahead of us, but I think that's unlikely.  

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If we are so lucky as for this dream scenario to turn up and If Kelly is that hard up for Mariota he would be ripe for a good old fashioned f*ckin.  We simply tell him we are taking Mariota if he doesn't pull the trigger. He loses what he considers "his" guy.  The price would be Foles, this years number one and 2 and next years 1 at a minimum.  He doesn't go for it , we get our QB of the future in Mariota.

We aren't the one's who have the boner. He is. Therefore we own all the cards.

it would be a wonderful thing to see the Jets be in the position of power for once. It's been a looooooooong time man.

 

Doubt we get that much, but im all for a trade framed around getting back Foles and at least a 1st 

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Doubt we get that much, but im all for a trade framed around getting back Foles and at least a 1st 

 

In a perfect world, we get Foles in a swap of firsts, then send a mid-rounder to TB for Glennon.  Let them battle it out.  No matter who wins, our back up QB is likely better than any starter we've had in six years.

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I don't get Jets fans that wouldn't be happy with this scenario?

Foles doesn't have the mobility that Kelly wants but he has the experience & accuracy and here's the most important thing...confidence because he's had some success in the NFL.

We get Foles, resign Harvin, sign Spiller, draft CBs & LBs, we would have as good as chance as anyone to make the playoffs next year with our schedule.

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Go go from 30 to six wil cost the Eagles ALOT ! More than they are willing to give

 

They're at 20.  A young, quality starting QB carries a lot of value IMO.  Fun to talk about...can't wait to see how it all unfolds.

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If we are so lucky as for this dream scenario to turn up and If Kelly is that hard up for Mariota he would be ripe for a good old fashioned f*ckin. We simply tell him we are taking Mariota if he doesn't pull the trigger. He loses what he considers "his" guy. The price would be Foles, this years number one and 2 and next years 1 at a minimum. He doesn't go for it , we get our QB of the future in Mariota.

We aren't the one's who have the boner. He is. Therefore we own all the cards.

it would be a wonderful thing to see the Jets be in the position of power for once. It's been a looooooooong time man.

There's 5 other teams Kelly could make a trade with.

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There's 5 other teams Kelly could make a trade with.

 

While this is true, it's reasonable to expect the asking price to climb as they move up higher in the draft.  They could try to move up to number two, but that would require them to give up more than they would have to give up to get to no. 6.  If the Jets would command the least compensation while posing a real threat as a team that would select Mariota, it should give them an advantage over others who will likely ask for more while having no intention of picking him themselves.

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I live in Philly & i can tell you right now that Chip is obsessed with Marcus Mariota and would trade the farm for him, that's all they talk about & im sick of it.

Yeah and Marronne was definitely taking Nassib in the first round.

The media has no clue, they find a connection and run with it like its a fact. Kelly is one of the smartest guys going, no chance he let's everyone know he's infatuated with Mariota and gives up the farm for him. Now Rex on the other hand.....

Mariota is going to be a bum in the pros, I don't see much difference between him and Geno. System QBs, Mariota is a lot better athlete, but Geno probably has better pocket skills.

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The number one topic on Philly radio for the past month has been Kelly's desire to add Mariota.  Normally I'd look at something like that as pure speculation, but again, he has EIGHT Oregon players on his roster.  He has shown that he wants as many of his guys as possible, and now the most important one could come be  his if he's willing to do what it takes to get up to #6.  The Jets can't overplay their hand and risk him getting a better offer from a team ahead of us, but I think that's unlikely.  

The scenario I was mentioning was if Mariota is actually there at 6. If that happens my logic would apply.  If he trades up to a spot before us it would cost even more IMO.  Buffalo traded two number one's and a 4th to move up 5 spots from 9 to 4 last year to grab Watkins.

This is a much bigger deal coming from 20.

Either way, I don't see this happening for the Jets. It will be the team just before us (the skins would just love to be on the other end of a QB deal like this after RG3 trade) and we will left standing with our dicks in our hands.

No Mariota and no Foles, and no extra picks.

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The more interesting question would be if Marriota loves him some Kelly Sooooo much that he'd be willing to take a dive at the Combine and interviews to scare teams away so that Chip gets his man @ 20?

 

All it would take is pull a Sapp @ the combine with a couple of working girls.

 

Heck, Chip would probably pick up the tab!

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The more interesting question would be if Marriota loves him some Kelly Sooooo much that he'd be willing to take a dive at the Combine and interviews to scare teams away so that Chip gets his man @ 20?

 

All it would take is pull a Sapp @ the combine with a couple of working girls.

 

Heck, Chip would probably pick up the tab!

 

This is somewhat of a "conspiracy theory" that's been floated out in Philly as well.  I think it was actually Sal Pal who suggested it.  Nothing about tanking, but said "what if" Mariota were to pull an Eli and make it clear to any takers that he only wants to play for Chip?  I doubt he'd do that, but I did wonder myself if he'd bomb at the combine or give some reason why he can't throw. 

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The scenario I was mentioning was if Mariota is actually there at 6. If that happens my logic would apply.  If he trades up to a spot before us it would cost even more IMO.  Buffalo traded two number one's and a 4th to move up 5 spots from 9 to 4 last year to grab Watkins.

This is a much bigger deal coming from 20.

Either way, I don't see this happening for the Jets. It will be the team just before us (the skins would just love to be on the other end of a QB deal like this after RG3 trade) and we will left standing with our dicks in our hands.

No Mariota and no Foles, and no extra picks.

 

It's plausible, but every time I look at what Washington gave up to get RGIII I just keep thinking they're gonna' give him one more season.  Obviously I'm just guessing like everyone else, but giving up on him would be a bitter pill to swallow.  That being said, Snyder is the type of owner who just might be willing to do it.

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It's plausible, but every time I look at what Washington gave up to get RGIII I just keep thinking they're gonna' give him one more season.  Obviously I'm just guessing like everyone else, but giving up on him would be a bitter pill to swallow.  That being said, Snyder is the type of owner who just might be willing to do it.

Maybe BECAUSE of what they gave up for RG3 would compel their front office to get back a 2016 #1 plus the #1 and #2 picks from Philadelphia. Try and take away the huge stain on Schneider's face from that terrible deal with St. Louis

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The number one topic on Philly radio for the past month has been Kelly's desire to add Mariota.  Normally I'd look at something like that as pure speculation, but again, he has EIGHT Oregon players on his roster.  He has shown that he wants as many of his guys as possible, and now the most important one could come be  his if he's willing to do what it takes to get up to #6.  The Jets can't overplay their hand and risk him getting a better offer from a team ahead of us, but I think that's unlikely.  

If he gets a better offer from a team ahead of us he has to pay more.  Plus, he knows some of those teams are not taking  Mariota.  So he pays more than he would to us just so he does not feel like we are soaking him?  I don't know. He is not going to offer a deal to a team ahead of us if he thinks they are not taking MM.  If he plays his cards right he does not make offers and waits until the team takes the guy.   Washington still could take him  and offer him in trade.  I know they just picked RGIII and all but he is damaged goods.  And I still do not believe that Tennessee is so all in on Mettenberg.  But hey, if MM is there they should know that it would not be a terrible move for us to take him.  We hope not to have these kind of picks in the near future.  So it would be reasonable, if not preferable, for us to draft him.

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If he gets a better offer from a team ahead of us he has to pay more.  Plus, he knows some of those teams are not taking  Mariota.  So he pays more than he would to us just so he does not feel like we are soaking him?  I don't know. He is not going to offer a deal to a team ahead of us if he thinks they are not taking MM.  If he plays his cards right he does not make offers and waits until the team takes the guy.   Washington still could take him  and offer him in trade.  I know they just picked RGIII and all but he is damaged goods.  And I still do not believe that Tennessee is so all in on Mettenberg.  But hey, if MM is there they should know that it would not be a terrible move for us to take him.  We hope not to have these kind of picks in the near future.  So it would be reasonable, if not preferable, for us to draft him.

 

By better offer I meant a team willing to move down to 20 for less.  Let's say the 'skins have a player they love and feel he'll be around at 20, do they ask for one less pick than the Jets, or same number of picks but one in a lower round?  I'm not talking about something absurd like taking multiple 3rd/4th rounders instead of a first, but if the Jets say they want 2 1's 2 2's and a 3, does Wash say they'll take 2 1's 2 2's and 1 3? 

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Maybe that meaningless win against the Titans could help the Jets here? Making it more viable for the Eagles to move from 20 to 6 than 20 to 2 or 3.

 

All harmless conjecture at this point granted, but it is fun to speculate a little. 

 

I'm sure there will be another twist or two in those mooted mock drafts between now and April. 

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It's plausible, but every time I look at what Washington gave up to get RGIII I just keep thinking they're gonna' give him one more season.  Obviously I'm just guessing like everyone else, but giving up on him would be a bitter pill to swallow.  That being said, Snyder is the type of owner who just might be willing to do it.

I think that's exactly why they would love to make the trade. They will give RG3 another season to see if he can come around and be the guy they hoped he'd be. 

 If they do in fact want to give him another season, they could be aggressively locoing to trade the pick. The only saving grace is that the Eagles are in the division. They may not be so interested in giving the birds a potential franchise QB who works well in Kelly's system. 

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The jets need players, not a player.

 

We have more than 1 draft pick already. Imagine if the Giants had traded down last  year instead of picking Beckham? I am not opposed to trading down, but to trade down to help your depth and possibly pass up on a stud that falls to you is a HUGE mistake. 

 

We already have a great Dline and with Mcdougle/Milliner coming back, Pryor and some cap space to get a guy like Cro I think our secondary will be fine this year. The RBs are not an issue, Amaro looks like a decent pass catcher at TE and our Oline looked pretty decent with an emerging Aboushi to go with Dbrick/Mangold/Breno. 

 

I am not saying we don't have holes (the biggest being at QB), but its not like this team has zero talent. We  have plenty of talent and cap space to plug some holes. We don't NEED to trade down if a player our GM loves falls to us at 6. 

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This is somewhat of a "conspiracy theory" that's been floated out in Philly as well.  I think it was actually Sal Pal who suggested it.  Nothing about tanking, but said "what if" Mariota were to pull an Eli and make it clear to any takers that he only wants to play for Chip?  I doubt he'd do that, but I did wonder myself if he'd bomb at the combine or give some reason why he can't throw. 

Why would a player purposely give up millions? Last year the signing bonust at #6 was 10.2m, the signing bonus at 20 was 4.4m.

 

I would not want a qb that is that stupid

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