Jets Trade Down on Draft Day Could be More Reality Than Fantasy

[AFJF]

Show me a team that spent 2 high draft picks, which is what you are advocating, on a qb in the same year.

 

So...now you want to have a different discussion?  You said NFL teams "can't hedge their bets". I showed multiple recent examples of teams doing exactly that and having a tremendous amount of success as a result. 

 

Since I've shown that some of the most respected coaches in the NFL have taken that approach, you're now implying that I suggested the Jets spend two high draft picks on QB's.  I never said that.

[Scott Dierking]

So...now you want to have a different discussion?  You said NFL teams "can't hedge their bets". I showed multiple recent examples of teams doing exactly that and having a tremendous amount of success as a result. 

 

Since I've shown that some of the most respected coaches in the NFL have taken that approach, you're now implying that I suggested the Jets spend two high draft picks on QB's.  I never said that.

My discussion has only been on using draft picks.

 

You wanted to trade for Foles- (which would require draft pick compensation).

 

You said you wanted to trade for Glennon-Which would require draft pick compensation.

 

I have said all along I would not want to use DRAFT PICKS to acquire 2 QBs, which is the scenario you pointed out.

 

Now if the Jets  traded for a QB AND spent money on another, I have no problem. But that is not how you acquire Foles and Glennon.

[AFJF]

My discussion has only been on using draft picks.

 

You wanted to trade for Foles- (which would require draft pick compensation).

 

You said you wanted to trade for Glennon-Which would require draft pick compensation.

 

I have said all along I would not want to use DRAFT PICKS to acquire 2 QBs, which is the scenario you pointed out.

 

Now if the Jets  traded for a QB AND spent money on another, I have no problem. But that is not how you acquire Foles and Glennon.

 

Right, but I said acquire Glennon for a mid round pick and Foles in a swap of first rounders whereas you said I suggested trading two high round draft picks.  HUGE difference. 

 

#6 for Foles and #20 as a starting point moves us down in round one, but does not result in the loss of a high round draft pick.  If you meant to say a high first round pick, then you would be correct.  We would add a young, but veteran QB for the price of moving down from no. 6 to no. 20.  I could live with that.

 

Then, using a pick acquired in that deal or an original mid-rounder could be offered to TB for Glennon. 

 

Two QB's who have shown the ability to play well in the NFL for the price of moving down 14 spots and a mid-rounder. 

[Scott Dierking]

Right, but I said acquire Glennon for a mid round pick and Foles in a swap of first rounders whereas you said I suggested trading two high round draft picks.  HUGE difference. 

 

#6 for Foles and #20 as a starting point moves us down in round one, but does not result in the loss of a high round draft pick.  If you meant to say a high first round pick, then you would be correct.  We would add a young, but veteran QB for the price of moving down from no. 6 to no. 20.  I could live with that.

 

Then, using a pick acquired in that deal or an original mid-rounder could be offered to TB for Glennon. 

 

Two QB's who have shown the ability to play well in the NFL for the price of moving down 14 spots and a mid-rounder. 

I have heard that a 3rd rounder for Glennon is expected price. To me, that is a big draft pick (as the Jets are in the upper tier of that round, and they MATY lose a pick based on possibly keeping Harvin). 

 

I don't care what you say, acquiring Foles, and moving down in the draft constitutes losing draft value.

 

Again, I don't care to take 2 draft picks to get 2 different QBs.

[AFJF]

I have heard that a 3rd rounder for Glennon is expected price. To me, that is a big draft pick (as the Jets are in the upper tier of that round, and they MATY lose a pick based on possibly keeping Harvin). 

 

I don't care what you say, acquiring Foles, and moving down in the draft constitutes losing draft value.

 

Again, I don't care to take 2 draft picks to get 2 different QBs.

 

Is it  not okay for two people to disagree?  We each would like a different approach from the front office.

 

At the end of the day, I just want them to be good.  Putting all of their eggs in one basket hasn't worked out so well in all the years I've been a fan.

 

You value fourteen draft slots so much that you don't think it's worth giving up to acquire a QB.  Again, we can disagree, cant we?

 

As far as you not caring about what I say or what I want, that's fine too. I don't come here to look for approval or consensus with my opinions.  It was just yesterday that I said I value the opinions of former NFL players and hall of famers in regards to the game, while you said that doing so made me a lemming and that I was what was wrong with this country. 

 

Again, no idea what your personal issue is with me, but I can roll with it.

[#27TheDominator]

Show me a team that spent 2 high draft picks, which is what you are advocating, on a qb in the same year.

 

In 2012 the Redskins traded their first and 2nd and 2013 and 2014 firsts for Griffin and then took Cousins in the fourth.  I think the Cousins pick was in the top 100. 

 

I know, I know, the Redskins!  But if they would have dealt Cousins after 2012 or 2013 they probably could have at least gotten the 4th back.

[AFJF]

In 2012 the Redskins traded their first and 2nd and 2013 and 2014 firsts for Griffin and then took Cousins in the fourth.  I think the Cousins pick was in the top 100. 

 

I know, I know, the Redskins!  But if they would have dealt Cousins after 2012 or 2013 they probably could have at least gotten the 4th back.

 

I thought about using that example but didn't because the question had nothing to do with what I was proposing, and as your post shows, it would have likely been met with "LOL...the Redskins...LOL"

[Scott Dierking]

In 2012 the Redskins traded their first and 2nd and 2013 and 2014 firsts for Griffin and then took Cousins in the fourth.  I think the Cousins pick was in the top 100. 

 

I know, I know, the Redskins!  But if they would have dealt Cousins after 2012 or 2013 they probably could have at least gotten the 4th back.

And I would claim the Redskins acted in stupidity. And would be right.

[T0mShane]

From a Jets standpoint, I would have to assume that comes with a Foles component of the trade, which I want no part of. So, if the Eagles do it, I do not want it too be with the Jets getting Foles.

If you flip first rounders with the Eagles this year, getting their 2016 first and second, plus Foles, you take that and run, imo.

[Scott Dierking]

Is it  not okay for two people to disagree?  We each would like a different approach from the front office.

 

At the end of the day, I just want them to be good.  Putting all of their eggs in one basket hasn't worked out so well in all the years I've been a fan.

 

You value fourteen draft slots so much that you don't think it's worth giving up to acquire a QB.  Again, we can disagree, cant we?

 

As far as you not caring about what I say or what I want, that's fine too. I don't come here to look for approval or consensus with my opinions.  It was just yesterday that I said I value the opinions of former NFL players and hall of famers in regards to the game, while you said that doing so made me a lemming and that I was what was wrong with this country. 

 

Again, no idea what your personal issue is with me, but I can roll with it.

Stop being so sensitive. All i said that moving down in the draft, is losing draft value.

 

It did not mean that your opinion has no value.

 

You like to play a victim, or something. It's a message board dude. People are not going to always agree with you all the time, nor stroke you. 

[Scott Dierking]

If you flip first rounders with the Eagles this year, getting their 2016 first and second, plus Foles, you take that and run, imo.

Yuch. Foles played like he was shell shocked last year, getting hit after hit. He just started putting the ball up there, without any conscience. I think the kid may have been hit too many times already.

[T0mShane]

Yuch. Foles played like he was shell shocked last year, getting hit after hit. He just started putting the ball up there, without any conscious. I think the kid may have been hit too many times already.

Maybe, but going into this year with Foles+Geno+draft pick at QB, with two firsts next year is as healthy as you can conceivably be at the QB position if you're the Jets right now.

[bitonti]

Jets need a ******* QB. Take Mariota if he's there. 

 

if by some miracle a QB does get to 6, it's an easy pick. Trade him away for what? more draft picks? who friggin cares. I love the draft as much as the next guy but this team needs players now. Not 5 years from now. 

[T0mShane]

if by some miracle a QB does get to 6, it's an easy pick. Trade him away for what? more draft picks? who friggin cares. I love the draft as much as the next guy but this team needs players now. Not 5 years from now.

How does Mariota represent getting a "player now"? They're going to have to teach the kid how to throw a football.

[AFJF]

if by some miracle a QB does get to 6, it's an easy pick. Trade him away for what? more draft picks? who friggin cares. I love the draft as much as the next guy but this team needs players now. Not 5 years from now. 

 

No, trade him away for another QB who has several years in the leauge, winning record, great TD/INT ratio and comp pct, and isn't two years away from being able to get on the field...AND more draft picks. 

[Scott Dierking]

Maybe, but going into this year with Foles+Geno+draft pick at QB, with two firsts next year is as healthy as you can conceivably be at the QB position if you're the Jets right now.

If you compare Foles 2014 numbers to Geno Smith's 2014 numbers, they look eerily similar. 

[AFJF]

How does Mariota represent getting a "player now"? They're going to have to teach the kid how to throw a football.

 

Say what you will about Dilfer as a player, but he's become a hell of an analyst.  His take on Mariota is that he's a year, if not two years away from being able to get on the field.

[AFJF]

Maybe, but going into this year with Foles+Geno+draft pick at QB, with two firsts next year is as healthy as you can conceivably be at the QB position if you're the Jets right now.

 

Correct, and Foles was shell shocked last year.  His starting LT was out for the first four weeks with drug suspension and one of the best centers in the NFL was out with injuries.  He was getting killed back there. If anything, he showed a lot of toughness.  One more reason to like him IMO.

[Scott Dierking]

Correct, and Foles was shell shocked last year.  His starting LT was out for the first four weeks with drug suspension and one of the best centers in the NFL was out with injuries.  He was getting killed back there. If anything, he showed a lot of toughness.  One more reason to like him IMO.

He didn't show toughness. He showed that he is spooked in the pocket. He was winging balls up there. 

[#27TheDominator]

If you compare Foles 2014 numbers to Geno Smith's 2014 numbers, they look eerily similar. 

 

Foles 6-2 59.8% 13TD/10INT, 270ypg, 7 ypa.

Geno 3-10, 59.7%, 13/13, 180ypg, 6.9 ypa 

Eh.  Some of the numbers are almost identical, but the most important ones are pretty heavily in Foles favor. Geno ran a bit better (add a TD) but fumbled twice as much. I can't see how you pass on T0m's deal.

[Scott Dierking]

Foles 6-2 59.8% 13TD/10INT, 270ypg, 7 ypa.

Geno 3-10, 59.7%, 13/13, 180ypg, 6.9 ypa 

Eh.  Some of the numbers are almost identical, but the most important ones are pretty heavily in Foles favor. Geno ran a bit better (add a TD) but fumbled twice as much. I can't see how you pass on T0m's deal.

I watched Foles for the majority of his games last year, as I am in the Philly market. I saw a player regressing. I saw teams pressuring him, and he was making bad decisions.

 

The Chip Kelly offense was caught up to, in some regards. 

 

Name a big win that Foles has had against a great team? The best he has done is beaten a Rodgers less Packer team. That and a win in Indy last year. He hasn't exactly been a world beater.

[Jetster]

If you flip first rounders with the Eagles this year, getting their 2016 first and second, plus Foles, you take that and run, imo.

Damn right!

That's how you rebuild & try to win in 2015.

After our Free Agency binge starting March 10th, having an extra 1 & 2 next year would be amazing!

This new GM won't be afraid to spend some dough. The Free Agent list is littered with young guys that will turn us around pretty quickly I believe. Just not turning the ball over too much & your 8-8.

Damn I'd love to be a fly on the wall to see who they are looking at in Free Agency. Go back & look at most of the free agents that were available in the Tannenbaum years, guys like LT ect.

I can't believe the free agents available this year. Maybe Idzik was just stooge, used to set up this offseason & take all the heat for rolling over all that money.

Maybe Woodys a genius!LOL!

Kraft is a genius because he has Belichick & Brady. Otherwise he's like every other owner in this league.

[Scott Dierking]

This is a pretty fair article on Foles, and what I witnessed:

 

http://articles.philly.com/2014-10-28/sports/55526022_1_nick-foles-chip-kelly-pro-football-focus

    By Mike Sielski, Inquirer Columnist POSTED: October 28, 2014

Nick Foles is a lesser quarterback this season than last in every meaningful regard, and this must change if the Eagles are to be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders. These truths are clear when you watch him on the field, when you examine his statistics, when you listen to Chip Kelly fall back on the tired trope Monday of pointing to Foles' win-loss record as an accurate measure of his play and progress.

"What's our record now, 5-2? Nick's 5-2, in my opinion," Kelly said one day after Foles threw two costly interceptions in the Eagles' 24-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "I think you rate your quarterback in terms of how you're winning and how you're losing."

Kelly is too smart, too forward-thinking, to believe this. All he has to do is look down the bench at Mark Sanchez - whom the New York Jets handed a three-year, $40.5 million extension in 2012, based on two appearances in the AFC championship game - to remember the oft-false hope inherent in judging a quarterback solely by his team's success.

Kelly's words are a convenient cover for a quarterback who has committed the second-most turnovers in the NFL, who isn't playing with enough consistency to keep Kelly's offense humming at optimum effectiveness and efficiency, who has developed a bad habit of backpedaling and throwing off his back foot whenever he senses a blitz.

"At times, he probably shouldn't have gone as far," Kelly said. "You feel something coming. You think it's there. You've got to set your feet and take that hit, and there were times he set his feet and took the hit and delivered the ball on time. It's not just one thing."

If it's still an open question as to why the problems with Foles' throwing mechanics developed (Has he taken too many big hits? Is he unsure of what he's seeing from opposing defenses?), there's no doubt about the drop-off in his quality of play. The traditional measures used to gauge quarterbacks - completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception percentage, passer rating - demonstrate as much, but the concern goes beyond those numbers. The statistical and scouting firm Pro Football Focus isn't infallible, but it does an excellent job of going beyond the basics of a box score or a play-by-play sheet to show a player's growth or regression. And make no mistake: Foles has regressed.

Consider:

Pro Football Focus tracks accuracy percentage - a figure that takes dropped passes, spikes, and throwaways into account when judging whether a quarterback delivers the football on target to a receiver. Foles' accuracy percentage last season was 74.2, the sixth-best among all 27 quarterbacks who took at least 50 percent of their teams' dropbacks. This season, it's 67.6, worst in the league.

Foles' deep-passing accuracy in 2013 was 45.5 percent, the seventh-best mark among the 21 QBs who took half their teams' dropbacks. This season, it's 35.1 percent - the 12th-best mark out of 13 ranked quarterbacks so far.

Despite significant injuries to two starters on the Eagles' offensive line, center Jason Kelce and guard Evan Mathis, Foles hasn't seen a marked increase in pass pressure from opposing defenses. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, defenses have pressured him a bit less frequently this season (33.2 percent of the time) than they did last season (34.3 percent). On average, he's had 2.81 seconds to throw in 2014 - still the sixth-highest time per throw in the league and only a slight recession from last season, when the Eagles' line gave him an average of 3.11 seconds.

Nevertheless, Foles' accuracy when he's been under pressure has plummeted from 68.1 percent last year to 50.0 percent this year. Those downfield overthrows to Jeremy Maclin and Zach Ertz really are happening more frequently. Would Foles' overall accuracy be better if DeSean Jackson were still around? Maybe, but it's difficult to imagine that Jackson's departure is the sole reason for such a pronounced decline.

Look, no one expected, or should have expected, Foles to reproduce what he did last year: the 27 touchdowns, the two interceptions, the Roy Hobbs-like way he played after stepping in for Michael Vick. No one expected him to be that good again, but he has to be better than this. His coach knows it, too, even if he can't say it.

 

msielski@phillynews.com

 

[section314]

I get the fact that some drafts have more talent than others, but I heard a quote from an exec not long ago and for the life of me can't remember who it was.  I think it was somebody quoting Bill Walsh on NFL network.  Basically, "saying the draft isn't deep is admitting you're not good at finding talent".  If we just imported all of these new personnel guys, and they can't fid a few good players out of hundreds, then what's the point in having them around?

I agree with you about the new personnel guys, and being able to find talent. My point is it should be so much easier to find a really good to great player at #6, then it would be at #20.

[HessStation]

How does Mariota represent getting a "player now"? They're going to have to teach the kid how to throw a football.

LOL your confidence that Mariota is Tebow grows stronger by the day.

[Charlie Brown]

Jets need a ******* QB. Take Mariota if he's there.

Jets fans and their FO have been historically to cute (stupid) for their own good. Indeed there are posters out here who will still argue that Obrien is a better QB than Marino and that Chad is just a whisker under Brady.

So no I wouldn't be surprised from a historical perspective that the Jets let Mariota go through their fingers.

[bitonti]

How does Mariota represent getting a "player now"? They're going to have to teach the kid how to throw a football.

 

It's hope. At least there would be hope. Anyone who has hope for Geno is in too deep. 

 

Foles isn't getting traded by the way, so just forget that pipedream. 

[AFJF]

Another mock with Mariota going to the Jets...this time it's Kiper.  Says he doesn't want to project trades but could see the Eagles exploring the possibility of trading up.

 

 

As for Mariota, Kiper has him falling down to the New York Jets at pick No. 6 overall. Last month Kiper had Mariota going at No. 2, so he's dropped a few spots. Kiper is on record saying that Mariota isn't ready to play in the NFL yet, except for the Birds.

[AFJF]

Senior NFL analyst Greg Cosell on Philly radio this morning "I could see the Eagles trading up to seven or eight to get Mariota".  Seemed to think top five or six would have too big a price tag.

[prime21]

if Oakland really wants Cooper then they wouldn't trade with Philly. I can't see Washington making a big trade within the division so if Marriotta gets pass #2 I really think he is available at 6. Then there is instant drama for the ne regime and fans. Is he our savior? Would Chip Kelly pay the price to move up to our spot? Is there a dark horse team that would try and move up for him? i'm still not 100 percent sold on Marriotta but I wouldn't be upset if we picked him.

[FidelioJet]

There's 5 other teams Kelly could make a trade with.

 

This.

 

If Chip is willing to give up so much - How does Mariotta get to six?  As noted in the article, two of the teams above us can very easily make a case that they're taking him (I think Tenn. will ultimately take him and if they don't Washington surely will)  If Kelly is really going to give up a lot to move up - I don't see how he falls to us.  

 

I just don't see how he gets passed either the Titans or Redskins let alone both (with either taking him or a trade) 

 

The only way we get Mariotta - you have to hope the Titans don't take him and then make a deal with Raiders to jump over Washington.  It's actually feasible as the Raiders realistically would be giving up one spot (the Jets won't be taking their guy)

[AFJF]

This.

 

If Chip is willing to give up so much - How does Mariotta get to six?  As noted in the article, two of the teams above us can very easily make a case that they're taking him (I think Tenn. will ultimately take him and if they don't Washington surely will)  If Kelly is really going to give up a lot to move up - I don't see how he falls to us.  

 

I just don't see how he gets passed either the Titans or Redskins let alone both (with either taking him or a trade) 

 

The only way we get Mariotta - you have to hope the Titans don't take him and then make a deal with Raiders to jump over Washington.  It's actually feasible as the Raiders realistically would be giving up one spot (the Jets won't be taking their guy)

 

It might be true and it might not...but here are a couple of theories.

 

- Based on the fact that TB just cut the guy they signed to start last season and are left with a guy they had no interest in giving a shot to start, they're probably going to want a franchise QB.  They're not getting one if they trade down to 20. 

 

- Washington, being a division rival would be less likely to do a deal with the Eagles given the number of reports speculating that Mariota will need a season or two on the bench, unless he goes to Philly where he is most likely to thrive.  Could you imagine the Pats needing a QB in a few years and the Jets swapping picks to allow them to take a guy they believe to be their best choice at QB while the Jets move down 14 spots?

 

- That leaves three teams that could very well do a deal with the Eagles, but of course the higher they go, the more they'll pay.  It all depends on the asking price.  One of Kelly's best chips (no pun intended) is Foles.  The Jets are the only team likely to demand a QB as part of the deal.  One NFL analyst just said on Philly radio that he doesn't think they can afford to move into the top six, so if Mariota is there at seven or eight they could do something.

 

 

- I do wonder about Washington and Tenn though.  Could Tenn. really like their situation that much?  If Mariota is such a lock, then he's absolutely gone at no. 2.  Washington could take him and be okay with the egg on their face for spending four first rounders on 2 QB's in three seasons.  If they believe Mariota is the guy, they have to make that move too.  I've heard enough talk of him being a couple of years from being game ready to make me think they may just pass on him.

 

- Obviously none of know what's going to happen, but I like the fact that there's heavy speculation about Mariota falling anywhere from 6 to 18, and the Jets might get a call from the Eagles offering a nice package of picks and players.

 

 

Can't wait for draft day : o )

[drdetroit]

The jets need players, not a player.

We had 13 picks last year and all of them sucked. Quantity isn't always better than quality

[AFJF]

We had 13 picks last year and all of them sucked. Quantity isn't always better than quality

 

Was that because of the  number of picks or because of who was making the picks?  I would venture to guess the latter. 

[FidelioJet]

 

 

 

- I do wonder about Washington and Tenn though.  Could Tenn. really like their situation that much?  If Mariota is such a lock, then he's absolutely gone at no. 2.  Washington could take him and be okay with the egg on their face for spending four first rounders on 2 QB's in three seasons.  If they believe Mariota is the guy, they have to make that move too.  I've heard enough talk of him being a couple of years from being game ready to make me think they may just pass on him.

 

- Obviously none of know what's going to happen, but I like the fact that there's heavy speculation about Mariota falling anywhere from 6 to 18, and the Jets might get a call from the Eagles offering a nice package of picks and players.

 

 

Can't wait for draft day : o )

 

I agree with much of what you said.  Tampa takes Winston, Jags and Raiders take the best on their board (not Mariotta)  Yes, could Tenn really be that much in love their 6th round QB?

 

Washington is almost ready to cut bait on RGIII and they would be mistaken to not draft a QB they like - because of ego...

 

Personally I want Mariotta and if he falls to us I would say absolutely take him (but that's not the point) Even if they didn't want him I just don't know how he gets passed either the Titans or Redskins.