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JN Official Mock Draft V 1: On Avoiding Mariota


T0mShane
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I personally think this is how it plays out with Mariota: The Jets let Kelly know exactly how much it'd cost to get the six pick--and trade down to 20-- if Mariota is still on the board, then it'll be on Chip Kelly to call their bluff in the event that transpires. In the end, I think the Jets decide it's not worth it to dump all the way down the board to 20, hang on to the pick, and pick a guy that they think is safe® in either Cooper or the best OL available. I really believe that they're going to go big in free agency for corners and LBs, so it won't be as much of a need by the time the draft rolls around, but I do believe that Harvin will be gone, so a playmaking WR will be a big deal. The question they have to answer is whether or not Mariota is the type of guy that they can build around. I'm guessing he's not, and that he'll slide when the draft comes around. 

 

If this is how it shakes out, it is a major check of the new GM's balls right off the bat.  If Philly is that high on Mariota and willing to trade up to #7, you have the option of picking him which forces Philly's hand.  You can always trade him after -  I think that is what the Giants and Chargers did with Rivers/Eli, though that was in place before the picks IIRC.  Takes balls to do that though.

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I can't find the link, but one of the beat guys said this was the plan, too--that Maccagnan and Bowles were going to re-stock the defense in free agency and use the draft for offense. I like Fowler, but there are real concerns over how good a pass rusher he'll end up being because he's not particularly powerful or quick. He's more of a Courtney Upshaw-type, imo. You draft him to run around, be physical, and knock TEs and RBs down, but he's not giving you 12 sacks. And if that's not the case, why burn a 6 on him?

 

I'm not sure I buy that, but I am pretty sure I don't particularly like that plan. Top pass rushers -if they hit the market- are second only to QBs when it comes to cost. At WR, they could stick with Harvin for a year at $10.5M or go after a guy like Cobb at his dream value of $9M. Interior OL are one of the cheapest positions to fill in free agency. Quality RBs come even cheaper. I know they need to spend money, but they also have a lot of holes to fill and should spend it wisely. I do expect them to break the bank a little bit at the CB position only because it is such a dire area of need, but they have a couple hold the fort LBs, and a couple late draft picks to compete there. I wouldn't spend big at that position free agency, instead I'd target it at #6 and hope to land a true stud.

 

I haven't seen the Cleveland rumors anywhere but on a fan blog, though. And that organization tends to leak everything. It would be wonderful if Cleveland ever took a serious interest in trading up for Mariota, but how can Pettine and Farmer sell that after taking Manziel last year? I could see it if they fired Farmer last week for the texting thing, but I think he'd be cutting his own throat by, in essence, burning three firsts (the two this year, and the one used on Manziel) to draft Mariota. 

If not Cleveland, and even if not Mariota, I still see Washington as a prime candidate to trade down in an effort to recoup some of the picks they gave up for RGIII - but that's if Tennessee, Jacksonville, or Oakland doesn't beat them to the punch. I still think team's interested in trading for a QB will be trading ahead of the QB needy Jets, not with them.

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If this is how it shakes out, it is a major check of the new GM's balls right off the bat.  If Philly is that high on Mariota and willing to trade up to #7, you have the option of picking him which forces Philly's hand.  You can always trade him after -  I think that is what the Giants and Chargers did with Rivers/Eli, though that was in place before the picks IIRC.  Takes balls to do that though.

IIRC, it wasn't in place beforehand. San Diego was trying to trade with the Giants before the draft, but the Giants balked knowing that Eli was refusing to play for the Chargers. SD defied Eli and his dad and took him anyway. Thus, a trade was born.

It would be much more ballsy for a questionable QB prospect like Mariota. Not excited about the team overplaying their hand and getting stuck with a QB they don't love.

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    This is working out perfect for us.  The Jets wait the whole draft and talk about retooling their offensive line in

the first round.  Chicago works out a trade with Philly, the trap is set. BOOM!  Mike Maccagnan makes the call and

Mariota is wearing "another" Nike green jersey in Fall Camp.  Philly fans have another reason to hate New Yorkers for

another century.

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you and me both all i ever hear. i need to just face it one way or another next year i am likely to know everything about the kid

I'm out here too (central NJ) too far for NY sports to come in clearly) and Mariotta is pretty much the only thing they talk about.

Most fans I'm hearing are ready to give away the house to get this guy.

The NFL coach that knows the most about the player desperately wants him yet most Jet fans can't wait to trade him away. Kind of amazes me.

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I'm out here too (central NJ) too far for NY sports to come in clearly) and Mariotta is pretty much the only thing they talk about.

Most fans I'm hearing are ready to give away the house to get this guy.

The NFL coach that knows the most about the player desperately wants him yet most Jet fans can't wait to trade him away. Kind of amazes me.

 

It shouldn't. Just look at the history of Heisman QB's in the NFL. Winning a Heisman as a QB is a virtual guarantee that QB will fail at QB in the NFL. Looking at it from the other direction, think of all the great NFL QB's you know. Any of them win a Heisman? Nope. If you're looking for the next Montana, Brady, or Rodgers, look elsewhere.

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It shouldn't. Just look at the history of Heisman QB's in the NFL. Winning a Heisman as a QB is a virtual guarantee that QB will fail at QB in the NFL. Looking at it from the other direction, think of all the great NFL QB's you know. Any of them win a Heisman? Nope. If you're looking for the next Montana, Brady, or Rodgers, look elsewhere.

 

Really Roger Staubauch was a failure?

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This is how we ended up picking Sanchez.

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with Cooper as prospect. He's got literally everything you want in a receiver. 

 

 

 

I can't find the link, but one of the beat guys said this was the plan, too--that Maccagnan and Bowles were going to re-stock the defense in free agency and use the draft for offense. I like Fowler, but there are real concerns over how good a pass rusher he'll end up being because he's not particularly powerful or quick. He's more of a Courtney Upshaw-type, imo. You draft him to run around, be physical, and knock TEs and RBs down, but he's not giving you 12 sacks. And if that's not the case, why burn a 6 on him?

 

 

 

I haven't seen the Cleveland rumors anywhere but on a fan blog, though. And that organization tends to leak everything. It would be wonderful if Cleveland ever took a serious interest in trading up for Mariota, but how can Pettine and Farmer sell that after taking Manziel last year? I could see it if they fired Farmer last week for the texting thing, but I think he'd be cutting his own throat by, in essence, burning three firsts (the two this year, and the one used on Manziel) to draft Mariota. 

 

 

 

 

I personally think this is how it plays out with Mariota: The Jets let Kelly know exactly how much it'd cost to get the six pick--and trade down to 20-- if Mariota is still on the board, then it'll be on Chip Kelly to call their bluff in the event that transpires. In the end, I think the Jets decide it's not worth it to dump all the way down the board to 20, hang on to the pick, and pick a guy that they think is safe® in either Cooper or the best OL available. I really believe that they're going to go big in free agency for corners and LBs, so it won't be as much of a need by the time the draft rolls around, but I do believe that Harvin will be gone, so a playmaking WR will be a big deal. The question they have to answer is whether or not Mariota is the type of guy that they can build around. I'm guessing he's not, and that he'll slide when the draft comes around. 

 

And that's how we ended up passing on Bridgewater and Carr.

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It shouldn't. Just look at the history of Heisman QB's in the NFL. Winning a Heisman as a QB is a virtual guarantee that QB will fail at QB in the NFL. Looking at it from the other direction, think of all the great NFL QB's you know. Any of them win a Heisman? Nope. If you're looking for the next Montana, Brady, or Rodgers, look elsewhere.

What does winning the Heisman Trophy have to do with how you'll perform in the NFL?  I'm not saying because you win one you'll be good.  What I am saying is you need a franchise QB to win in the NFL.  There is no way around it - when there's a QB with the potential to be one (not a lock to be one) you absolutely MUST take him

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What does winning the Heisman Trophy have to do with how you'll perform in the NFL?  I'm not saying because you win one you'll be good.  What I am saying is you need a franchise QB to win in the NFL.  There is no way around it - when there's a QB with the potential to be one (not a lock to be one) you absolutely MUST take him

 

I don't know why winning a Heisman at QB is such a strong predictor of NFL failure. But the history is so overwhelming I don't think it can be ignored. I'd far prefer for the Jets to trade down, then use the extra picks to fill the many holes. And yes, pick a QB in the middle rounds.

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amari cooper strikes me as this type of prospect that people mock high, until about 2 weeks before the draft when insiders put him in the teens/twenties.. and thats where he really goes. 

 

good all around player but he's not that explosive or huge and the top end of the draft is about upside

 

I don't make the rules. 

 

as for the Jets they can't pass on Mariota if he's there. Chances are he won't be, so it doesn't really matter 

I agree with everything you just said. 

:D

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Roger won but had to finish his military service first so he didn't start a game till years later so I guess some forgot about the Heisman.. Many don't know that Paul Hornung won the Heisman as a QB in 1956 as a QB..

 

Thanks for that info. So now the list grows to 3 non-failing Heisman QB's in the NFL: Hornung, Staubach, and Plunkett. History still says spending a high draft pick on a Heisman QB is extraordinarily risky. A team should chance it only if they don't have a lot of holes to fill. 

 

So the Jets shouldn't risk it.

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If Mariotta is there I'm taking him. Build the O towards his strengths to help ease the learning curve (Chan is a perfect fit for him). It may not work out , but I'd rather take a chance. Every QB prospect has his flaws outside of Manning/Luck types , and I'm not willing to wait 15 more years for the next one and pray we have the #1 pick that year

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Excellent work gents. Thank you for the time and effort put into this. 

 

I  do not see the Eagles sitting until pick 7 "if" they are indeed head over heels for Mariota. Why would they chance QB needy teams like the Skins and the Jets taking him? I don't think the Skins will draft Mariota for all the reasons you noted but if I'm the Eagles I am still calling teams with picks 2 through 4.

 

As for the Jets, part of me thinks we should just keep drafting and signing QB's until we get it right.

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amari cooper strikes me as this type of prospect that people mock high, until about 2 weeks before the draft when insiders put him in the teens/twenties.. and thats where he really goes. 

 

good all around player but he's not that explosive or huge and the top end of the draft is about upside

 

I don't make the rules. 

Don't be modest. You make up the rules.

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Washington is not a trade partner for the Eagles. You don't trade franchise QB's within your division and you don't send a haul of picks within the division, it just doesn't happen.

I'm too lazy to research if it has ever happened. I know it hasn't in the last ten years.

Washington needs a QB too. Not like they would pass on Mariota either.
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Excellent work gents. Thank you for the time and effort put into this. 

 

I  do not see the Eagles sitting until pick 7 "if" they are indeed head over heels for Mariota. Why would they chance QB needy teams like the Skins and the Jets taking him? I don't think the Skins will draft Mariota for all the reasons you noted but if I'm the Eagles I am still calling teams with picks 2 through 4.

 

As for the Jets, part of me thinks we should just keep drafting and signing QB's until we get it right.

+1000000000000000000000000000000000000000

 

If Mariota is somehow on the board when the Jets pick, you take him... after making sure the Eagles aren't interested in being fleeced. (but, if they were, like GS said, they'd already have traded up into the top 5)

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Great article and well thought out mock but if MM is there at 6, the Jets have to take him or trade the pick

 

Agree on the huge questions and I am not advocating trading up for MM but you need a QB to win and have to take that chance, again and again until you find a QB

 

Drafting Sanchez was questionable in hindsight but it was the right decision at the time, the mistake was that stupid contract extension and not benching him (coaching him) when he threw 3-5 picks in a game or was clearly lost, Mark should have been on the bench before the buttfumble and on a back up contract, can't blame the pick for that

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Max Willians in the first? Why? Do you think that when the jets GM left the Texans he took all the intelligence with him? The guy can not even block in line. Last year they picked

Fiedorowicz with the first pick in the 3rd and they still have Graham as the move TE. To take a move TE this high, when guys like Thomas, Clay, Cameron,  does not seem prudent.  Peat so that they can kick Newton to the curb, or Bud Dupree

 

Can not see Indy passing on Gordon. 

 

As you mention, it is just a guess, but he never drafted a WR in the first. And WR is not a pressing need. If McCourty and Revis stay.  But with you Having Malcolm Brown on the board and Wilfork a likely cut

 

I see the Ravens smiling if they get their hands on Gurley,

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Max Willians in the first? Why? Do you think that when the jets GM left the Texans he took all the intelligence with him? The guy can not even block in line. Last year they picked

Fiedorowicz with the first pick in the 3rd and they still have Graham as the move TE. To take a move TE this high, when guys like Thomas, Clay, Cameron,  does not seem prudent.  Peat so that they can kick Newton to the curb, or Bud Dupree

 

Can not see Indy passing on Gordon. 

I can ...take a RB in rd 2 3 or 4

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I believe we can get a Devin Smith (worst case; best case would be J. Strong or DGB) at 20 and still have additional picks this year and perhaps next.  As much as I would like Cooper, White or Parker, unless we are set on getting one of the premier pass rushers, who probably don't make it to 20, I can't see how we don't trade down if Philly really wants Mariota.  I hope McCags decides to be bold and not "play it safe".    

 

I just think it's unlikely that 1. the Eagles would actually mortgage their balls off for him, and 2. We end being the trading partner when it's all said and done. As derp implied, they'll either go all in on him (and trade it all to move up to 2-4) or they won't, and see how it plays out. In the mock, I envisioned a scenario where the Jets hold a gun to Chip Kelly's head, and Kelly kinda calls their bluff. I'm operating under the assumption that the actual market for Mariota is Chip Kelly, then a significant empty space, then some other dopey team whose owner liked Oregon's uniforms, then the Jets, Browns, Texans, and St. Louis. When you take away the running, the flashy offensive system, the good-guy attitude, and the Heisman, Mariota simply isn't that good at throwing the football, and nobody ever figures out how to throw a football on the NFL level. 

 

 

More buzz on Philly trading up for Mariota today. There are basically three scenarios: they really want Mariota, they kind of want Mariota, or they don't want Mariota. I happen to think it's either really or not at all.

 

While that theoretical Eagles trade would be great for the Jets - if Kelly really wants Mariota he's not going to stand pat and wait until 6 to go get him. In that scenario he's moving up to 2 to ensure he gets his guy. Or he doesn't move up at all - but I don't think he's going to risk losing him and then give up whatever it's going to take to move up.

 

So I think it's pretty reasonable that they move up and leapfrog the Jets to get Mariota. Maybe they do it at 3 if Tennessee really wants to take Williams and has no interest in moving down. But I bet Jacksonville does the deal in that case. And Tennessee may want to do a Foles/Mettenberger competition. That's the only place besides the Jets that Foles actually sweetens the pot.

 

The Eagles moving up to 2 for Mariota is probably best case scenario for this regime. They don't have to worry about what happens if they pass on him since he won't be on the board.

 

1. Winston

2. Mariota

3. Williams

4. Cooper

5. Fowler

6. White

 

?

 

Agreed, but I also think that the Raiders and Tennessee are the only ones who realistically have the ability to drop down.

 

Tennessee could do it, especially if Whisenhunt gets a hard-on for Foles, but the cost of moving up to two could be an extreme hindrance. Foles, this year's entire draft, and a few picks next year (including the 1)? Maybe the Titans offer a discount just to make it more practical, but why should they, really? From the Philly side, they're on the verge of having a bad team pretty soon. Their last two drafts (other than Jordan Matthews) have been awful, and that roster was already showing signs of attrition last year. While I don't think Chip loves being in the NFL anyway, I think he understands that giving away too much would kill his team even if Mariota is really good in three years.  

 

In Jacksonville, they'd be trading for picks that the next regime was going to profit from after they got whacked for for three years of putrid football. They may have gambled on the wrong QB last year, and the only thing saving them (other than a Bortles 180) is getting an elite pass rusher right away. They have a metric ton of cap space, so it's possible that they take a run at Justin Houston if he doesn't get tagged, or maybe they pick up Orakpo and pray he's not completely shot. Other than that, their best hope is to draft Gregory, Fowler, or Beasley and hope he becomes Von Miller.

 

The Raiders are the interesting one, imo, because I think Del Rio has a honeymoon year and could afford to drop down. If Mariota is there and Kelly comes calling, this could be the spot, I'd think. 

 

Better description for Calvin Johnson than Cooper.

 

Well, yeah, but I think it's fair to call Calvin Johnson an outlier. Cooper has the size, speed, quickness, production, etc. Literally the only thing bumming people out about him is his vertical leap, which is silly.

 

 

If this is how it shakes out, it is a major check of the new GM's balls right off the bat.  If Philly is that high on Mariota and willing to trade up to #7, you have the option of picking him which forces Philly's hand.  You can always trade him after -  I think that is what the Giants and Chargers did with Rivers/Eli, though that was in place before the picks IIRC.  Takes balls to do that though.

 

 

Definitely. It's going to take huge balls either way. If Mariota comes down the board, we're going to learn a lot about the future of the franchise right off the bat. The worst thing they could do, imo, is draft him even if they're not deeply in love with him, then try to figure out what to do with him. 

 

 

 

I'm not sure I buy that, but I am pretty sure I don't particularly like that plan. Top pass rushers -if they hit the market- are second only to QBs when it comes to cost. At WR, they could stick with Harvin for a year at $10.5M or go after a guy like Cobb at his dream value of $9M. Interior OL are one of the cheapest positions to fill in free agency. Quality RBs come even cheaper. I know they need to spend money, but they also have a lot of holes to fill and should spend it wisely. I do expect them to break the bank a little bit at the CB position only because it is such a dire area of need, but they have a couple hold the fort LBs, and a couple late draft picks to compete there. I wouldn't spend big at that position free agency, instead I'd target it at #6 and hope to land a true stud.

 

If not Cleveland, and even if not Mariota, I still see Washington as a prime candidate to trade down in an effort to recoup some of the picks they gave up for RGIII - but that's if Tennessee, Jacksonville, or Oakland doesn't beat them to the punch. I still think team's interested in trading for a QB will be trading ahead of the QB needy Jets, not with them.

 

I think there's only one huge-money pass rusher on the market right now anyway, and that's Houston, and he's going to get tagged or re-signed. I can see someone overpaying Jerry Hughes or Pernell McPhee, but if anyone wants to give them $10 mil plus, more power to them. I think if you added two guys like Sam Acho and Brooks Reed--both of should come in that $3-$5 mil per range, you'd have you two bigger OLBs that Bowles seems to prefer, making Pace and Babin expendable. The guy I like is Bruce Carter from the Cowboys, but I don't think he's a fit. 

 

Do you think they'll sit on Harvin? I could see them doing so if Idzik was still in residence, but now there's really no justification for giving him $10 mil, especially if he's scratching at the door to test free agency. I understand the logic that states "we have $50 mil in cap room even with the $10 mil..." but it's still a dicey play if you hold him here against his will. I don't mind giving up the 4th if you're able to get him on a 3-year, $20 mil deal, but anything more than that and he can hit the bricks. I think Maccagnan will make big-ticket purchases at CB and on the OL. I don't think he'll try and buy a RB or a WR because the draft is loaded with both. 

 

End of the day, the gobs of cap space will spent front-loading Mo's extension, on Kareem Jackson, and chasing down a guard like Iupati or James Carpenter. As we saw with Tannenbaum, it won't be hard to spend the $40 mil to get to the cap floor.

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