Jump to content

JN Official Mock Draft V 1: On Avoiding Mariota


T0mShane

Recommended Posts

amari cooper strikes me as this type of prospect that people mock high, until about 2 weeks before the draft when insiders put him in the teens/twenties.. and thats where he really goes. 

 

good all around player but he's not that explosive or huge and the top end of the draft is about upside

 

I don't make the rules.

 

Which of the rules says that comparative analysis of draft season narrative arcs is a good way to evaluate players?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 84
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I just think it's unlikely that 1. the Eagles would actually mortgage their balls off for him, and 2. We end being the trading partner when it's all said and done. As derp implied, they'll either go all in on him (and trade it all to move up to 2-4) or they won't, and see how it plays out. In the mock, I envisioned a scenario where the Jets hold a gun to Chip Kelly's head, and Kelly kinda calls their bluff. I'm operating under the assumption that the actual market for Mariota is Chip Kelly, then a significant empty space, then some other dopey team whose owner liked Oregon's uniforms, then the Jets, Browns, Texans, and St. Louis. When you take away the running, the flashy offensive system, the good-guy attitude, and the Heisman, Mariota simply isn't that good at throwing the football, and nobody ever figures out how to throw a football on the NFL level. 

 

 

 

Agreed, but I also think that the Raiders and Tennessee are the only ones who realistically have the ability to drop down.

 

Tennessee could do it, especially if Whisenhunt gets a hard-on for Foles, but the cost of moving up to two could be an extreme hindrance. Foles, this year's entire draft, and a few picks next year (including the 1)? Maybe the Titans offer a discount just to make it more practical, but why should they, really? From the Philly side, they're on the verge of having a bad team pretty soon. Their last two drafts (other than Jordan Matthews) have been awful, and that roster was already showing signs of attrition last year. While I don't think Chip loves being in the NFL anyway, I think he understands that giving away too much would kill his team even if Mariota is really good in three years.  

 

In Jacksonville, they'd be trading for picks that the next regime was going to profit from after they got whacked for for three years of putrid football. They may have gambled on the wrong QB last year, and the only thing saving them (other than a Bortles 180) is getting an elite pass rusher right away. They have a metric ton of cap space, so it's possible that they take a run at Justin Houston if he doesn't get tagged, or maybe they pick up Orakpo and pray he's not completely shot. Other than that, their best hope is to draft Gregory, Fowler, or Beasley and hope he becomes Von Miller.

 

The Raiders are the interesting one, imo, because I think Del Rio has a honeymoon year and could afford to drop down. If Mariota is there and Kelly comes calling, this could be the spot, I'd think. 

 

 

Well, yeah, but I think it's fair to call Calvin Johnson an outlier. Cooper has the size, speed, quickness, production, etc. Literally the only thing bumming people out about him is his vertical leap, which is silly.

 

 

 

 

Definitely. It's going to take huge balls either way. If Mariota comes down the board, we're going to learn a lot about the future of the franchise right off the bat. The worst thing they could do, imo, is draft him even if they're not deeply in love with him, then try to figure out what to do with him. 

 

 

 

I think there's only one huge-money pass rusher on the market right now anyway, and that's Houston, and he's going to get tagged or re-signed. I can see someone overpaying Jerry Hughes or Pernell McPhee, but if anyone wants to give them $10 mil plus, more power to them. I think if you added two guys like Sam Acho and Brooks Reed--both of should come in that $3-$5 mil per range, you'd have you two bigger OLBs that Bowles seems to prefer, making Pace and Babin expendable. The guy I like is Bruce Carter from the Cowboys, but I don't think he's a fit. 

 

Do you think they'll sit on Harvin? I could see them doing so if Idzik was still in residence, but now there's really no justification for giving him $10 mil, especially if he's scratching at the door to test free agency. I understand the logic that states "we have $50 mil in cap room even with the $10 mil..." but it's still a dicey play if you hold him here against his will. I don't mind giving up the 4th if you're able to get him on a 3-year, $20 mil deal, but anything more than that and he can hit the bricks. I think Maccagnan will make big-ticket purchases at CB and on the OL. I don't think he'll try and buy a RB or a WR because the draft is loaded with both. 

 

End of the day, the gobs of cap space will spent front-loading Mo's extension, on Kareem Jackson, and chasing down a guard like Iupati or James Carpenter. As we saw with Tannenbaum, it won't be hard to spend the $40 mil to get to the cap floor.

Too many Bama players in that narrative mon

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, great job on the mock draft. I think we still need to draft Mariota, though. Something tells me, however, with the imminent cutting of Harvin, Cooper May be the guy if he's still there, otherwise, Trae as our CB situation is worse than our WR situation. QB is still the top need, however.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't be modest. You make up the rules.

 

few people know this but it was me in the war room pounding the table for Vernon Gholston. The jets were all set to do something else, something much smarter and I was like "hey, wooah guys. Let's just take the workout warrior instead." 

 

true story 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

few people know this but it was me in the war room pounding the table for Vernon Gholston. The jets were all set to do something else, something much smarter and I was like "hey, wooah guys. Let's just take the workout warrior instead." 

 

true story 

Don't forget the Bowling Ball with Butcher knifes too,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

few people know this but it was me in the war room pounding the table for Vernon Gholston. The jets were all set to do something else, something much smarter and I was like "hey, wooah guys. Let's just take the workout warrior instead." 

 

true story 

have to give you credit for Butcher with bowling balls as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting info from Howie Roseman (deposed Eagles GM) on the cluster**** that occurred last year, which led to the Eagles drafting Marcus Smith. The article has embedded tweets, so I couldn't cut and paste, but he says, basically, he didn't want to move up last year because it wasn't cost-effective, and as a result they settled on a player they didn't really want. They had six players on their wish list, and they all went ahead of the Eagles pick. Safe to assume that Odell Beckham was one of them, and every play he made for the Giants was another scoop of dirt on Roseman's moneyball program.

This sort of gives credence to the idea that Chip Kelly won't hesitate to trade up if he actually wants Mariota.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/3/1/8128621/howie-roseman-eagles-trade-marcus-mariota-chip-kelly-power

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting info from Howie Roseman (deposed Eagles GM) on the cluster**** that occurred last year, which led to the Eagles drafting Marcus Smith. The article has embedded tweets, so I couldn't cut and paste, but he says, basically, he didn't want to move up last year because it wasn't cost-effective, and as a result they settled on a player they didn't really want. They had six players on their wish list, and they all went ahead of the Eagles pick. Safe to assume that Odell Beckham was one of them, and every play he made for the Giants was another scoop of dirt on Roseman's moneyball program.

This sort of gives credence to the idea that Chip Kelly won't hesitate to trade up if he actually wants Mariota.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/3/1/8128621/howie-roseman-eagles-trade-marcus-mariota-chip-kelly-power

They wanted Ha Ha Clinton Dix very badly

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting info from Howie Roseman (deposed Eagles GM) on the cluster**** that occurred last year, which led to the Eagles drafting Marcus Smith. The article has embedded tweets, so I couldn't cut and paste, but he says, basically, he didn't want to move up last year because it wasn't cost-effective, and as a result they settled on a player they didn't really want. They had six players on their wish list, and they all went ahead of the Eagles pick. Safe to assume that Odell Beckham was one of them, and every play he made for the Giants was another scoop of dirt on Roseman's moneyball program.

This sort of gives credence to the idea that Chip Kelly won't hesitate to trade up if he actually wants Mariota.

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/3/1/8128621/howie-roseman-eagles-trade-marcus-mariota-chip-kelly-power

Accountant GMs suck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really Excellent Work on the Mock TS, and Glenn. 

 

-I think theres going to be a million people that mock a trade between Washington and Philidelphia. But you bring up a great point of how often do divisional deals like that happen? These teams hate eachother. I can even see Washington trading the pick to Chicago just to make sure Philly doesn't get Mariota. 

 

- Whats interesting is Washington, The Jets and the Bears all have new GM's and there going to determine the whole first round. I would assume the whole Mariota sweepstakes gets determined by one of these teams. Thats alot of pressure on a first year GM unless....

 

-It would make a ton of sense for JAX to trade back a few spots and land Brandon Scherff.  Do people really think another Bears GM is going to let Jay Cutler lose him his job?

 

-SF seems like a team that would not draft a WR early. Crabtree didn't work out, nor did the guy they traded for Jon Baldwin. They get Vet receivers on the cheap and they seem to do well.  Which is what most of the better NFL teams do. Which is always why I can't see NE taking a WR in round 1. 

 

-I think it would be awesome to see the Bengals draft DGB and pair him with AJ Green. 

 

-Its interesting to see Collins lasting so long. I do love the pairing of him to Pitt. 

 

-I think my favorite pairing of a team and a player is Gurley to Baltimore. Close second is giving David Carr Kevin White as a number 1 WR. 

 

In the end this was a really good read especially the rationale's for each pick. It seems like a year where 99 percent of mocks are going to be wrong. Mariota is going to change the whole draft. To me it feels similar to the year Jay Cutler came out and we mocked him everywhere( JI draft forum) only to have the rat trade up and get him out of no where. It seems like Winston to Tampa is a lock as well as Williams to Tennessee. So the draft starts with Jax and I am sure they are going to want to be involved in this Mariota situation. If they can trade back and land a Scherff or Gregory I would think they would jump on it. 

 

Lastly I just can't see Mariota lasting past 6.  The Bears are certainly a landing spot as are the Jets. If we don't want him it seems likely that we will be getting trade offers from several teams that need QB's. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed, but I also think that the Raiders and Tennessee are the only ones who realistically have the ability to drop down.

 

Tennessee could do it, especially if Whisenhunt gets a hard-on for Foles, but the cost of moving up to two could be an extreme hindrance. Foles, this year's entire draft, and a few picks next year (including the 1)? Maybe the Titans offer a discount just to make it more practical, but why should they, really? From the Philly side, they're on the verge of having a bad team pretty soon. Their last two drafts (other than Jordan Matthews) have been awful, and that roster was already showing signs of attrition last year. While I don't think Chip loves being in the NFL anyway, I think he understands that giving away too much would kill his team even if Mariota is really good in three years.  

 

In Jacksonville, they'd be trading for picks that the next regime was going to profit from after they got whacked for for three years of putrid football. They may have gambled on the wrong QB last year, and the only thing saving them (other than a Bortles 180) is getting an elite pass rusher right away. They have a metric ton of cap space, so it's possible that they take a run at Justin Houston if he doesn't get tagged, or maybe they pick up Orakpo and pray he's not completely shot. Other than that, their best hope is to draft Gregory, Fowler, or Beasley and hope he becomes Von Miller.

 

The Raiders are the interesting one, imo, because I think Del Rio has a honeymoon year and could afford to drop down. If Mariota is there and Kelly comes calling, this could be the spot, I'd think. 

 

 

Well, yeah, but I think it's fair to call Calvin Johnson an outlier. Cooper has the size, speed, quickness, production, etc. Literally the only thing bumming people out about him is his vertical leap, which is silly.

 

I'm not sure Jacksonville's getting an elite edge guy at #3 anyway though. There are a bunch of really good ones but it's kind of a mess to figure out who's the best. You could make a pretty legitimate argument for 4 guys or so. They can always move down and hop back up once a couple are off the board - but the draft isn't that strong at the top so I think they'd move out of #3 if the Eagles came calling with a huge package of picks.

 

 

The offense Cooper played in concerns me as well. Kiffin just peppers the #1 receiver and guys (Woods, Lee) who came out of that system as supposed studs a. fell in the draft because their athleticism didn't match their production and b. haven't outperformed that status. I think Cooper definitely is better than those two, but it's still a negative.

 

Kiffin does a great job getting his receivers favorable matchups - Cooper crushed them when he got them, but if he's a true #1 receiver NFL DC's are going to make sure he doesn't get matched up in man coverage on safeties in the slot. He's going to need to beat quality corners and double teams that in the games I watched - and I still need to watch more - he doesn't need to do that a lot so it's hard to figure out if he can. Similar to Mariota in that way I guess.

 

A good chunk of his yards are just him running by guys and I wonder how often that's going to happen in the NFL. He's going to need to be able to get open because of his elite quickness - almost in an Antonio Brown type manner IMO. It'll be interesting to see if he's as good of a deep threat at the next level and if he continues to fill out because he's extremely young. The projection with him is one of the more interesting ones in the last few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure Jacksonville's getting an elite edge guy at #3 anyway though. There are a bunch of really good ones but it's kind of a mess to figure out who's the best. You could make a pretty legitimate argument for 4 guys or so. They can always move down and hop back up once a couple are off the board - but the draft isn't that strong at the top so I think they'd move out of #3 if the Eagles came calling with a huge package of picks.

 

I guess. I'm not sure how Shad Khan runs that operation, but they've won 7 games in two years and there's not a ton of light at the end of the tunnel for them. Dumping down would signal to me that Bradley is on his last legs, unless the package they're getting back is absurd massive. There was a crazy rumor making the rounds in Philly that Chip had a deal worked out with Tampa that would have sent Foles, Shady McCoy, and three firsts in exchange for the first overall. IMO, that would be suicide for Kelly. That Eagles team is pretty close to the brink talent-wise, they don't have tons of cap space, and if Kelly is looking to burn that many resources for one player, then the Eagles are doomed.

The offense Cooper played in concerns me as well. Kiffin just peppers the #1 receiver and guys (Woods, Lee) who came out of that system as supposed studs a. fell in the draft because their athleticism didn't match their production and b. haven't outperformed that status. I think Cooper definitely is better than those two, but it's still a negative.

 

Kiffin does a great job getting his receivers favorable matchups - Cooper crushed them when he got them, but if he's a true #1 receiver NFL DC's are going to make sure he doesn't get matched up in man coverage on safeties in the slot. He's going to need to beat quality corners and double teams that in the games I watched - and I still need to watch more - he doesn't need to do that a lot so it's hard to figure out if he can. Similar to Mariota in that way I guess.

 

A good chunk of his yards are just him running by guys and I wonder how often that's going to happen in the NFL. He's going to need to be able to get open because of his elite quickness - almost in an Antonio Brown type manner IMO. It'll be interesting to see if he's as good of a deep threat at the next level and if he continues to fill out because he's extremely young. The projection with him is one of the more interesting ones in the last few years.

What makes me confident in Cooper besides the production is the 40+the short shuttle, plus the 3-cone. I didn't see him running by DBs as much as he just consistently crossed them up with his quickness, and that'll translate. And unlike Lee and Woods (and a lot of these high-volume collegiate receivers) Cooper doesn't seem phased by physical play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess. I'm not sure how Shad Khan runs that operation, but they've won 7 games in two years and there's not a ton of light at the end of the tunnel for them. Dumping down would signal to me that Bradley is on his last legs, unless the package they're getting back is absurd massive. There was a crazy rumor making the rounds in Philly that Chip had a deal worked out with Tampa that would have sent Foles, Shady McCoy, and three firsts in exchange for the first overall. IMO, that would be suicide for Kelly. That Eagles team is pretty close to the brink talent-wise, they don't have tons of cap space, and if Kelly is looking to burn that many resources for one player, then the Eagles are doomed.

What makes me confident in Cooper besides the production is the 40+the short shuttle, plus the 3-cone. I didn't see him running by DBs as much as he just consistently crossed them up with his quickness, and that'll translate. And unlike Lee and Woods (and a lot of these high-volume collegiate receivers) Cooper doesn't seem phased by physical play.

 

Yeah, that would be absolutely awful for the Eagles - but I guess that kind of gets to the point I was trying to make. I think Kelly either really wants Mariota and he's going to do whatever it takes to get him or he's relatively cool on him and he won't. I don't think the scenario where he's half interested and moves up to 6 is that realistic - still costs a lot to move up that far but you run the risk of another team leapfrogging you. And with how weak the top of the draft is, I think teams are going to want to move down so they shouldn't struggle to find a trade partner.

 

I think the quickness should translate, and then it's just a question of role. Does he get a QB who can put the ball in the right spots when he does get open? Is he going to be in a high volume situation like Antonio Brown? If he fills out as he gets older does that end up helping? He doesn't seem to mind physical play but a lot of those catches are when he's wide open because of that quickness - less effective when there's a defender right there (which makes sense) but I think he'll see that more at the next level. I guess I wonder if he's more bigger Antonio Brown - who guys just can't stay in front of (though I think Brown is better after the catch and does havea  QB) and so he can get his as the top dog on an offense - or Victor Cruz who wasn't really capable of carrying that Giants passing game when he didn't have a top receiver to take attention away from him. I don't think you want Cruz in the top 10, bigger Antonio Brown on the other hand...and metrics wise from an age/production standpoint Cooper is money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...