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***Jets trade for Brandon Marshall (pending a physical)***


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Ughhh Brandon Marshall is good. This sucks. -ilk

Start making up your shortlists for our next GM and coach, because this group is clueless.

Boy, I'm so glad the Jets finally wised up and got Rex out of town. Now the Jets are no longer a circus!   Oops, spoke too soon.

7mill is very cheap for a 1#, the guys not what he was but he's a Major upgrade on any player we've have at receiver for a very long time.

A 5th is a bargain. Jalon Saunders was our 4th round pick last year. I don't get the hate about Marshall he's no Saint but I don't give a sh@t.

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I didn't know Marshall Dropped 75 balls last year . Don't be silly

 

 

Some fun reading for you. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2014/

 

I guess the top 10 on that list really suck eh ??

It doesn't matter what does and doesn't get scored as a drop. Marshall's catch rate is a black hole. It's so consistently terrible that it just isn't everybody else's fault.

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The way Brandon Marshall's contract is currently, I would guess we'll have him this and next season. His cap hit in 2017 in something like Harvin's is now. Unless he has back-to-back 1k yd seasons I don't think he'll be worth it by then, especially if we still don't have a quarterback by then.

 

It isn't. It's still a couple million less. Regardless, unless we're going to be up against the cap every year with no room left, carrying nothing over to the following season, you should look at his (remaining) 3 year deal as a whole instead of a series of "what is it this year?" numbers. It's 3 years $24.3M.

But if you want to look at an isolated season you also need to look at it relative to that season's cap limit set by the league:

 

Harvin's present deal (just for this year) is $10.5M under a $143M cap limit. That's 7.3% of the NFL's cap limit for 2015.

 

Marshall will count $8.5M when the cap limit should be pushing $160M (and maybe more) in 2017. Neighborhood of 5.3% (give or take) of the expected 2017 cap limit.

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It doesn't matter what does and doesn't get scored as a drop. Marshall's catch rate is a black hole. It's so consistently terrible that it just isn't everybody else's fault.

when you get targeted 150 to 200 times per year and you catch balls in traffic as much as Marshall does your going to have drops. Hilarious how you are attacking one of the better WR's in the game and your also a Jets fan :P

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when you get targeted 150 to 200 times per year and you catch balls in traffic as much as Marshall does your going to have drops. Hilarious how you are attacking one of the better WR's in the game and your also a Jets fan :P

I'm equally baffled by the people who are talking about the guy who's going to end up the all-time leader in incomplete targets like he's self-evidently awesome.

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when you get targeted 150 to 200 times per year and you catch balls in traffic as much as Marshall does your going to have drops. Hilarious how you are attacking one of the better WR's in the game and your also a Jets fan :tongue:

 

Dumbass, don't you know Cutler doesn't throw into traffic? He waits until guys get open after the play develops, and if they're not then he throws it away. 

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I'm equally baffled by the people who are talking about the guy who's going to end up the all-time leader in incomplete targets like he's self-evidently awesome.

so you would trade 100 catches per year and 10 drops with what we've had the past 10 years ? Lets add the ten Td's to that as well that Marshall gets since we're in the discussion.

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so you would trade 100 catches per year and 10 drops with what we've had the past 10 years ? Lets add the ten Td's to that as well that Marshall gets since we're in the discussion.

He's not talking about drops, Isaac Newton.

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It isn't. It's still a couple million less. Regardless, unless we're going to be up against the cap every year with no room left, carrying nothing over to the following season, you should look at his (remaining) 3 year deal as a whole instead of a series of "what is it this year?" numbers. It's 3 years $24.3M.

But if you want to look at an isolated season you also need to look at it relative to that season's cap limit set by the league:

 

Harvin's present deal (just for this year) is $10.5M under a $143M cap limit. That's 7.3% of the NFL's cap limit for 2015.

 

Marshall will count $8.5M when the cap limit should be pushing $160M (and maybe more) in 2017. Neighborhood of 5.3% (give or take) of the expected 2017 cap limit.

It is, in 2017 he's getting paid 8 million but his cap hit is over 10.375 million. Percy's cap hit this season is 10.5. The reason I bring up his 2017 is because if his ankle injury this past season continues to be a problem, or he stays healthy but it takes a toll on him, 2016 will probably be his last season here. I'm also not sure about his guaranteed specifics. 

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so you would trade 100 catches per year and 10 drops with what we've had the past 10 years ? Lets add the ten Td's to that as well that Marshall gets since we're in the discussion.

 

Marshall's catch percentage (60%) is higher than Larry Fitzgerald's (57%). And Megatron's (55%). AJ Green (57%).

 

I take for granted that when a receiver's QB forces passes towards a receiver even if the play isn't there, due to confidence in the receiver or paired with a less accurate or more gunslinging QB (by nature or by need to catch up to the opponent) or both, there are going to be more incomplete passes.

 

Most of Marshall's career has been spent with a chuck & duck Favre-lite QB in Cutler. What catch percentage would anyone expect from his WRs? Alshon Jeffery has about the same catch percentage as Marshall the last 2 seasons. Who seriously wouldn't want Chicago's (healthy) WR duo the past 2 seasons?

He had one full season catching passes from a less-careless QB (Orton), who wasn't particularly good or accurate but also isn't the type to force everything/anything in there no matter what (he doesn't have the arm to do that). It could be coincidence, I suppose, but Marshall's catch percentage was up around 66% that year.

Greg Olsen 66% in 2008 (also with Orton). Dropped immediately to 55% the next year with Cutler then 58.5% the next season. Past 3 seasons in Carolina it's been back in the 66-68% range again.

I'm sure Marshall has made and will make some mistakes on the field. But that low catch percentage is a good amount of because of who he's played with. Pointing at a low catch rate just on its face can wrongly assume that a high percentage of those passes were catchable in the first place.

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It is, in 2017 he's getting paid 8 million but his cap hit is over 10.375 million. Percy's cap hit this season is 10.5. The reason I bring up his 2017 is because if his ankle injury this past season continues to be a problem, or he stays healthy but it takes a toll on him, 2016 will probably be his last season here. I'm also not sure about his guaranteed specifics.

I wouldn't worry about lingering ankle issue or his lung re-collapsing. He passed a physical or I have to believe we'd have nixed the trade if it looked worrisome (otherwise there's no point of making the deal pending a physical, as they did).

Guarantees aren't a concern. This year is meaningless, since there is approximately a 0% chance of us cutting him before September. So whether it's $0 guaranteed or all $7.5M of his salary guaranteed it wouldn't matter for 2015. I can't remember exactly but I think about half of it ($4M?) becomes guaranteed in like a week; but again, even if I'm wrong on this season's guaranteed amount, it's effectively meaningless.

But the type of guaranteed $ you're thinking of I'm guessing is beyond this season if we don't even want him past 2015. If he sucks this year I'm pretty sure we can cut (or trade) him with no cap hits in 2016 or 2017. His bonus money was all paid to him by Chicago so that has nothing to do with us.

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I wouldn't worry about lingering ankle issue or his lung re-collapsing. He passed a physical or I have to believe we'd have nixed the trade if it looked worrisome (otherwise there's no point of making the deal pending a physical, as they did).

Guarantees aren't a concern. This year is meaningless, since there is approximately a 0% chance of us cutting him before September. So whether it's $0 guaranteed or all $7.5M of his salary guaranteed it wouldn't matter for 2015. I can't remember exactly but I think about half of it ($4M?) becomes guaranteed in like a week; but again, even if I'm wrong on this season's guaranteed amount, it's effectively meaningless.

But the type of guaranteed $ you're thinking of I'm guessing is beyond this season if we don't even want him past 2015. If he sucks this year I'm pretty sure we can cut (or trade) him with no cap hits in 2016 or 2017. His bonus money was all paid to him by Chicago so that has nothing to do with us.

Wow, I actually forgot about his lung collapsing. I guess that's slightly worrisome too. But yeah I expect him to play fine, and get paid while he's on the Jets. The first post was pretty much a prediction.

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It is, in 2017 he's getting paid 8 million but his cap hit is over 10.375 million. Percy's cap hit this season is 10.5. The reason I bring up his 2017 is because if his ankle injury this past season continues to be a problem, or he stays healthy but it takes a toll on him, 2016 will probably be his last season here. I'm also not sure about his guaranteed specifics.

No it isn't. That's what his cap hit would have been in 2017 if he stayed on Chicago, because they also paid him a signing bonus.

The only money that ever hits a team's cap is money they actually pay to a player. In Marshall's case on the Jets, for 2017, that's his $8.3M salary plus a $200K workout bonus ($8.5M total). The extra $1.875M you see is amortized signing bonus Chicago already paid him. That doesn't count on any of his cap hits on the Jets, since we're not the ones who wrote that check, but it still needs to come off Chicago's cap because it's money they already paid him and it's the amount that hasn't come off their prior caps yet. (Signing bonus gets amortized over the life of the deal so teams can pay a player a big lump sum without blowing out their whole cap for that season. e.g. a $10M signing bonus on a 5 year deal hits the cap at $2M per year for 5 years.)

(Using Jason's #s from overthecap.com), had Marshall stayed on Chicago, $1.875M would hit their cap each year (on top of his annual salaries and workout bonuses). Because they traded him, all 3 of those remaining $1.875M hits will now accelerate to this year's cap since they can't keep dragging a player's cap hits out for 3 more years if he's not on their team anymore.

 

In 2015 he counts $7.7M on the Jets' cap and $5.625M on Chicago's cap (all 3 of those $1.875M hits accelerate to this year for them, but they pay no salary). So they realize a "net" savings of what he would have hit their cap ($9.575M) minus the accelerated "dead cap" amount ($5.625M), or $3.95M. After this year he's off their cap for good. Plus they get our 5th round pick next month.

 

It's also possible they could have designated him as being traded after June 1st. They can do that if he was cut, but I'm not sure if they can if it was a trade before June 1st. Same thing as far as the Jets are concerned, but Marshall's accelerated hit to Chicago's cap would/could get spread over 2 years instead of all this year. 

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No it isn't. That's what his cap hit would have been in 2017 if he stayed on Chicago, because they also paid him a signing bonus.

The only money that ever hits a team's cap is money they actually pay to a player. In Marshall's case on the Jets, for 2017, that's his $8.3M salary plus a $200K workout bonus ($8.5M total). The extra $1.875M you see is amortized signing bonus Chicago already paid him. That doesn't count on any of his cap hits on the Jets, since we're not the ones who wrote that check, but it still needs to come off Chicago's cap because it's money they already paid him and it's the amount that hasn't come off their prior caps yet. (Signing bonus gets amortized over the life of the deal so teams can pay a player a big lump sum without blowing out their whole cap for that season. e.g. a $10M signing bonus on a 5 year deal hits the cap at $2M per year for 5 years.)

(Using Jason's #s from overthecap.com), had Marshall stayed on Chicago, $1.875M would hit their cap each year (on top of his annual salaries and workout bonuses). Because they traded him, all 3 of those remaining $1.875M hits will now accelerate to this year's cap since they can't keep dragging a player's cap hits out for 3 more years if he's not on their team anymore.

 

In 2015 he counts $7.7M on the Jets' cap and $5.625M on Chicago's cap (all 3 of those $1.875M hits accelerate to this year for them, but they pay no salary). So they realize a "net" savings of what he would have hit their cap ($9.575M) minus the accelerated "dead cap" amount ($5.625M), or $3.95M. After this year he's off their cap for good. Plus they get our 5th round pick next month.

Ah ha. I see. I was using OTC as well but didn't realize that aspect. I stand corrected

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Ah ha. I see. I was using OTC as well but didn't realize that aspect. I stand corrected

 

A good rule of thumb for the future, if you can't remember all that is just simply 1 line from my post: the only money that ever hits the Jets' cap is money Woody Johnson actually will pay or has already paid to a player. No more, no less.

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He's not talking about drops, Isaac Newton.

looks like I got off track a bit with drops vs catch rate either way to bash a 100 + a year WR on a team that's not had a number 1 WR for about 15 years is ridiculous no matter how the hell you spin it.

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looks like I got off track a bit with drops vs catch rate either way to bash a 100 + a year WR on a team that's not had a number 1 WR for about 15 years is ridiculous no matter how the hell you spin it.

Not really. Those 100 catches have an opportunity cost. Think of it like field goal percentage in basketball. There's a denominator, too.

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Update on compensation:

 

Actual trade compensation in Brandon Marshall trade: Jets get Chicago’s 7th-round pick plus Marshall for NY's 5th-round pick, per NFL source

 

Really was happy when I read they are getting the 7th. Let's see if the new guys can make something happen in Round 7!

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Really was happy when I read they are getting the 7th. Let's see if the new guys can make something happen in Round 7!

 

7th rounders are good throw-ins for moving around in the draft too. More ammo, more flexibility.

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so I saw its a football life brandon marshall last night.  really interesting.  I really like having him on the team.  he was such a collossal ass with miami, but seems to have genuinely turned his life around though awareness of his issues

 

he didn't turn his life around for football, for endorsements, he did it to stay alive

 

sure, he could implode and kill mehta, but I think he is beyond that now

 

the limegreen on his shoes is for mental health awareness

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/a-football-life/0ap3000000395252/Brandon-Marshall-A-Football-Life-trailer

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