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2015 Mets thread!


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Now, let’s assume Ethier lets it drop. Ethier lets it drop, the count runs 0-2 to d’Arnaud, and runners are still on first and third with one out. In this situation, Murphy is no longer expected to score, because, in an 0-2 count, Greinke will likely retire d’Arnaud, and as long as d’Arnaud makes a non-advancing out, the Mets’ chances of scoring a run with runners on first-and-third plummets from 7-out-of-10 with one out, to 3-out-of-10 with two outs, due largely to the elimination of the potential sacrifice fly.

This is kind of where I stood with that one. With how heavily LA relies on metrics, you'd think the count would matter that much in that situation and be at the forefront of the fielders. I still say he should have let it drop. "You have to take the out" is too cliche, situations matter and in a tight playoff game you play the odds rather than handing them your opponent the run. Take into account how d'Arnaud had been hitting in this series against Kershaw and Greinke and I say you roll the dice.

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This is kind of where I stood with that one. With how heavily LA relies on metrics, you'd think the count would matter that much in that situation and be at the forefront of the fielders. I still say he should have let it drop. "You have to take the out" is too cliche, situations matter and in a tight playoff game you play the odds rather than handing them your opponent the run. Take into account how d'Arnaud had been hitting in this series against Kershaw and Greinke and I say you roll the dice.

My first reaction was to make a half-serious statement that Ethier should've let it drop and told my friend as much.  He disagreed and said you can't do it in that spot, so early in the game.  Realistically though, Greinke being ahead 0-2 on d'Arnaud is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 75% chance of a non-run scoring out.  It's a tough call in real life, but in the vacuum of analyzing the numbers, letting it drop and preserving the lead (with a stud pitcher against a lineup that was basically helpless outside of 2 guys) was probably the smart play.

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My first reaction was to make a half-serious statement that Ethier should've let it drop and told my friend as much.  He disagreed and said you can't do it in that spot, so early in the game.  Realistically though, Greinke being ahead 0-2 on d'Arnaud is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 75% chance of a non-run scoring out.  It's a tough call in real life, but in the vacuum of analyzing the numbers, letting it drop and preserving the lead (with a stud pitcher against a lineup that was basically helpless outside of 2 guys) was probably the smart play.

With the way Greinke was throwing too, now that I think more about it I say you have to let that drop. You've got this year's Cy Young winner on the mound and he's been having a great postseason, if that's not worth risking an automatic out for to prevent a run, I don't know what is.

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Not sure you get how this works.  They're analyzing discrete events to show how they affect the outcome of the game, or rather, how they alter the probability of the possible outcomes.  Nobody is suggesting that they have some uber nerd crystal ball that allows them to see into the future.

If Familia hits a 3-run homer after Mattingly chose to walk Flores in the 9th, does that make it a bad decision? 

Thing is, they attempt to know the outcome of the game by statistics and probabilities. Doesn't work that way. Know way an OF is even going to process that that way, in that instance. Pure riduculousness

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With the way Greinke was throwing too, now that I think more about it I say you have to let that drop. You've got this year's Cy Young winner on the mound and he's been having a great postseason, if that's not worth risking an automatic out for to prevent a run, I don't know what is.

With the way Greinke was throwing too, now that I think more about it I say you have to let that drop. You've got this year's Cy Young winner on the mound and he's been having a great postseason, if that's not worth risking an automatic out for to prevent a run, I don't know what is.

Yikes

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My first reaction was to make a half-serious statement that Ethier should've let it drop and told my friend as much.  He disagreed and said you can't do it in that spot, so early in the game.  Realistically though, Greinke being ahead 0-2 on d'Arnaud is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 75% chance of a non-run scoring out.  It's a tough call in real life, but in the vacuum of analyzing the numbers, letting it drop and preserving the lead (with a stud pitcher against a lineup that was basically helpless outside of 2 guys) was probably the smart play.

I would ask you to show me ONE example, ONE of that strategy, working before the 6th inning, in mlb history. Show me one. I would be interested.

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The 30 for 30 that they did on him was very good. There were 7 other fans that went for that ball, he just happened to be the guy that it got closest to. The ordeal that guy went through that evening had to be nothing short of terrifying. Beers thrown on him, his life threatened, the guy had to move.

The sh*ttiest part about it is that he was there with 3 friends, and they just left him to fend for himself with stadium staff after the game. Some friends.

I'd be shocked if they hadn't already extended some sort of invite for the NLDS. He's gotten opening day offers multiple times. From what his agent says he just wants to be left alone and not known for this anymore.

 

I think security isolated him and took charge/responsibility of getting him home so the friends went separately and probably on the advice of security for their own safety.

Stilli- a very f'd up situation of how that guys life was ruined due to fans taking things too far. To his credit he was pretty calm in the months and years after.

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Daniel Murphy has very much a feel of what Ray Knight did with the Mets '86 run. Not a guy that gets all of the acclaim, but a guy who is gritty and battles through.

Like Knight, Murphy is a free agent. I hope like Knight, Murphy gets to be an MVP.

I know he will not be a Met next year, but I do admire what he has done for this team.

I'd hate to see him go.

Francesa was saying Sandy doesn't consider him in their long term plan at 2B and also that Cespedes is not his type of player....high on base pct...yada, yada , yada.

I really consider Murphy to be a core piece of the team leadership wise but with a staff like ours Sandy is probably correct in going after a superior defensive 2nd Baseman.  Would love to see him stay with us on a 3 or 4 year deal and play all over (1st, 2nd, 3rd) while getting 450 AB's a season.

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why isnt Noah starting game 1, why start behind the 8 ball with harvey

Noah cannot start game 1 (and possibly game two) after all the times he got up in the pen Thursday in addition to throwing his one inning.

Cubbies have a loaded line-up that K's a lot so it will be an interesting series from a "their strength versus ours" perspective. The Cubs SP's are not getting enough hype leading into the series in my opinion. At the same time their line-up is talked about as if far superior than the Mets which is interesting considering the stats the Mets put up after the Cespedes deal.

Harvey in games one and five.....deGrom in games three and seven is how Terry will likely lay it out.

We need Wright to come out of his coma. He's been too aggressive at the plate. A Duda sighting would also be nice.

We miss the option of Uribe's bat. 

Tonight's game I'd like to see Terry try and take advantage of Lester's issue of throwing over to 1st with runners on.

Should be a fun series.

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Noah cannot start game 1 (and possibly game two) after all the times he got up in the pen Thursday in addition to throwing his one inning.

Cubbies have a loaded line-up that K's a lot so it will be an interesting series from a "their strength versus ours" perspective. The Cubs SP's are not getting enough hype leading into the series in my opinion. At the same time their line-up is talked about as if far superior than the Mets which is interesting considering the stats the Mets put up after the Cespedes deal.

Harvey in games one and five.....deGrom in games three and seven is how Terry will likely lay it out.

We need Wright to come out of his coma. He's been too aggressive at the plate. A Duda sighting would also be nice.

We miss the option of Uribe's bat. 

Tonight's game I'd like to see Terry try and take advantage of Lester's issue of throwing over to 1st with runners on.

Should be a fun series.

Big story yesterday when all the dust settled was how tired Thor was. He's a gametime decision for game 2 now and if he can't throw he'd go game 4. I'm torn on this one, on the one hand I think if he can't go, it puts us in as heavy favorites for both games 3 and 4, but it also means he'll only get one start this series.

Puts a lot more pressure on Harvey too, he has to pitch two quality games if this is how it goes down.

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good reason lol

This has been the story of the season for the Mets. The chink in the armor of this rotation has been its youth; which has been cause for 6-man rotations, constant spot-starts by long relief pitchers...etc. Harvey isn't the only one that has struggled with fatigue. Thor was dog-tired towards the end of the season and they had to give him almost two weeks off because of it. Even deGrom got a week off in September.

As much as the Mets are going for it this year, they have to be some degree of reasonable if someone's arm is fatigued. These guys are the future of the franchise and they've already been plagued with Tommy John surgeries enough.

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Gilmartin replacing Goedell. Odd that he wasn't on the NLDS roster considering how much Collins leaned on him in September and the fact that Goedell sucks donkey balls.

 

Mets’ NLCS Roster

Position Players (14) Pitching Staff (11)
Starters (8) Bench (6) Rotation (4) Bullpen (7)
Travis d’Arnaud Kelly Johnson Jacob deGrom Jeurys Familia
Lucas Duda Kevin Plawecki Noah Syndergaard Tyler Clippard
Daniel Murphy Wilmer Flores Matt Harvey Addison Reed
Matt Reynolds Michael Conforto Steven Matz Bartolo Colon
David Wright Juan Lagares   Jon Niese
Michael Cuddyer Kirk Nieuwenhuis   Hansel Robles
Curtis Granderson     Sean Gilmartin
Yoenis Cespedes      
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Curtis Granderson, RF

David Wright, 3B

Daniel Murphy, 2B

Yoenis Cespedes, LF

Travis d’Arnaud, C

Cuddyer, 1B

Wilmer Flores, SS

Juan Lagares, CF

Matt Harvey, RHP

Had a feeling he'd be starting Cuddyer over Duda after the way Game 5 played out. I'm sure Collins might take some heat for sacrificing Conforto's bat again, but Lagares has been hitting this postseason and from what I remember earlier in the year he had some good ABs against Lester.

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I have caught quite a bit of Dodger games the past few years and honestly that is the last thing you want. He's terrible.

I understand the Yank fan/Mattingly love. But big red flag-Puig is a tremendous talent. Understand he can be a total pain in the ass, but Mattingly's failure to figure it out is a really bad omen . Appears Mattingly is more worried about things off the field (and really minor things) instead of putting Puig in the lineup and harnessing his bat. The whole Showalter  old school thing only goes so far. 

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I understand the Yank fan/Mattingly love. But big red flag-Puig is a tremendous talent. Understand he can be a total pain in the ass, but Mattingly's failure to figure it out is a really bad omen . Appears Mattingly is more worried about things off the field (and really minor things) instead of putting Puig in the lineup and harnessing his bat. The whole Showalter  old school thing only goes so far. 

Maybe he's just better suited for AL ball? The only guy I've seen that's been worse with the double switch was Willie Randolph.

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