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Is Mariota THAT Much Better than Hundley?


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Hundley is a good athlete, and a God awful QB even by college standards. At the combine he just reinforced his inability to make NFL throws. His accuracy makes Geno look like a neurosurgeon. DB's will

Yes Mariota is!

No, I actually don't think he's that much better. I think it's close.

I don't think Mike McChicken is going to waste a high pick on Hundley.  He knows drafting a QB in a high round is a GM defining move (might've gotten Idzik fired taking Geno in the 2nd round). 

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I don't think Mike McChicken is going to waste a high pick on Hundley. He knows drafting a QB in a high round is a GM defining move (might've gotten Idzik fired taking Geno in the 2nd round).

How is he McChicken already?

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Are there really posters in this thread that don't that get that sacks aren't always 100% on the O-Line?

I'm just asking.

No, but to blame them on a mobile qb is even less accurate. He tries to extend plays, when you do that you get sacked more than a Brady manning - 1-2-3 throw. When you are a running qb and you run qb draws you get caught behind the LOS.  When you play in a spread and the RB releases after a chip, you take sacks. When you play behind a oline that does not have one guy drafted in the 3 years your there, and you play in the pac ten, you get sacks.

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No, but to blame them on a mobile qb is even less accurate. He tries to extend plays, when you do that you get sacked more than a Brady manning - 1-2-3 throw. When you are a running qb and you run qb draws you get caught behind the LOS. When you play in a spread and the RB releases after a chip, you take sacks. When you play behind a oline that does not have one guy drafted in the 3 years your there, and you play in the pac ten, you get sacks.

A smart QB gets outside the tackle box and throws it away and lives to play another down.

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I've not seen a lot of him, no. Watched here and there and the whole Utes game. They mentioned the sacks and the way he just stood in the pocket holding onto the ball was surprising. Yes, oline can of course play into the sacks. But he had no thoughts of getting rid of the ball and just took a beating.

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Exactly.  It will be very interesting to see when and where he is drafted.  The guy has a very good head on his shoulders and and is nothing like Kaep from a mental standpoint.  Like Mariota, he needs to sit and learn but he has all the tools. 

 

I think Hundley is probably the more, natural passer. 

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Hundley is a good athlete, and a God awful QB even by college standards. At the combine he just reinforced his inability to make NFL throws. His accuracy makes Geno look like a neurosurgeon. DB's will feast on his always late throws outside. My rating on him is a solid "Oh, hell no!".

 

Both Mariota and Hundley struggle with accuracy. Will basically be their major crux if they don't succeed in the NFL. 

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Both Mariota and Hundley struggle with accuracy. Will basically be their major crux if they don't succeed in the NFL. 

 

 

I have seen Hundley play on numerous occasions.  He is wildly inaccurate, especially on throws outside.  He will never be able to fit the ball into NFL windows.  Very bad feet as a drop back passer and a poor throwing motion, the ball does not get out quickly enough.  And those are just the problems below the neck.  He has limited ability for making pre-snap reads and is worse with progressions. Yes, Mariotta absolutely has to make similar adjustments to the pro game, but he will starting out light years ahead of Hundley.  Even so, he is going to have to grow into a starting job.  MM has a shot, Hundley has no chance at QB.  

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I have seen Hundley play on numerous occasions.  He is wildly inaccurate, especially on throws outside.  He will never be able to fit the ball into NFL windows.  Very bad feet as a drop back passer and a poor throwing motion, the ball does not get out quickly enough.  And those are just the problems below the neck.  He has limited ability for making pre-snap reads and is worse with progressions. Yes, Mariotta absolutely has to make similar adjustments to the pro game, but he will starting out light years ahead of Hundley.  Even so, he is going to have to grow into a starting job.  MM has a shot, Hundley has no chance at QB.  

 

Really? To each their own but I always thought great arm, good mechanics, quick release, good feet, great mobility. Just not consistent...mechanics and accuracy comes and goes.  

 

A lot better prospect than Geno Smith was IMO. 

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Really? To each their own but I always thought great arm, good mechanics, quick release, good feet, great mobility. Just not consistent...mechanics and accuracy comes and goes.  

 

A lot better prospect than Geno Smith was IMO. 

 

I forget the exact stat, but the majority of his completions were well under 10 yards.   He cannot read the defense before or after the snap.  I will say, he is decisive and athletic when he decides to take off and run but is useless from the pocket where he looks completely out of synch.  Absolutely cannot throw with any degree of accuracy from outside the pocket, so its run or bust.  Watch this guy a few times in the flesh (not his highlight reel) and see what I mean.  Some systems help to create a QB's success, like Mariotta.  Others are designed to minimize their warts, like Hundley.  We've got a kid coming in next year as a freshman named Josh Rosen -- he will be a top pro prospect when he is done.  

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I have seen Hundley play on numerous occasions.  He is wildly inaccurate, especially on throws outside.  He will never be able to fit the ball into NFL windows.  Very bad feet as a drop back passer and a poor throwing motion, the ball does not get out quickly enough.  And those are just the problems below the neck.  He has limited ability for making pre-snap reads and is worse with progressions. Yes, Mariotta absolutely has to make similar adjustments to the pro game, but he will starting out light years ahead of Hundley.  Even so, he is going to have to grow into a starting job.  MM has a shot, Hundley has no chance at QB.  

 

Although I guess I like Hundley more than most people here I get it. I remember killing Mike Glennon because I thought he couldn't make an accurate throw outside the numbers either. 

 

All I'm saying on Hundley is...yeah, this is a weak QB class....but the Jets desperately need a QB for the future....it's, like, the most important position etc....and out of this crop...Mariota (in the 1st) or Hundley (in the 2nd) are the only two prospects that have all the tools or, at least potential, to be really good in the NFL. Winston too but he seems like suuuuuuch a douche.  So I don't see how anyone complains with either pick. Mariota is obv the better prospect but I don't think by that much. Their pros and cons aren't too far apart imo. 

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I forget the exact stat, but the majority of his completions were well under 10 yards.   He cannot read the defense before or after the snap.  I will say, he is decisive and athletic when he decides to take off and run but is useless from the pocket where he looks completely out of synch.  Absolutely cannot throw with any degree of accuracy from outside the pocket, so its run or bust.  Watch this guy a few times in the flesh (not his highlight reel) and see what I mean.  Some systems help to create a QB's success, like Mariotta.  Others are designed to minimize their warts, like Hundley.  We've got a kid coming in next year as a freshman named Josh Rosen -- he will be a top pro prospect when he is done.  

 

Can't argue because I'm partially in agreement with you and I know you've seen Hundley play a lot more than me. 

 

Still think the only two potential QBs worth a damn in this draft are one of Mariota or Hundley. 

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I forget the exact stat, but the majority of his completions were well under 10 yards.   He cannot read the defense before or after the snap.  I will say, he is decisive and athletic when he decides to take off and run but is useless from the pocket where he looks completely out of synch.  Absolutely cannot throw with any degree of accuracy from outside the pocket, so its run or bust.  Watch this guy a few times in the flesh (not his highlight reel) and see what I mean.  Some systems help to create a QB's success, like Mariotta.  Others are designed to minimize their warts, like Hundley.  We've got a kid coming in next year as a freshman named Josh Rosen -- he will be a top pro prospect when he is done.  

 

Rosen looks pretty good. Watched a couple of his high school games. He absolutely shredded teams in high school. As for Hundley, guy is raw as ****. He's a lot like Ej Manuel, a guy you draft solely on potential despite having many problems.

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Can't argue because I'm partially in agreement with you and I know you've seen Hundley play a lot more than me. 

 

Still think the only two potential QBs worth a damn in this draft are one of Mariota or Hundley. 

 

Winston is the best qb in this draft, and this is coming from someone who hated him cause of the rape charges (which after reading the investigation, he's innocent). Here's a good video on why's he a damn good prospect.

 

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I was never really high on Hundley but I do like his mentality and confidence which I feel is very important in a QB. It's appears his personality is very genuine unlike Sanchez and especially Geno who to me appeared to be insecure but portrayed a false image of confidence. It's seems that Hundley displays some good leadership qualities and has a commanding presence, now whether he can read defenses and preform under pressure remains to be seen.

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Winston is the best qb in this draft, and this is coming from someone who hated him cause of the rape charges (which after reading the investigation, he's innocent). Here's a good video on why's he a damn good prospect.

 

 

I said it in another post in this thread, Winston too. But Winston is such a douche. meh.

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This idea that if you take Mariota you HAVE TO PLAY is so stupid.

 

The idea that if you take Mariota you HAVE TO SIT HIM is equally as stupid.  I don't believe in anointing or limiting prospects before they step on to a NFL practice and/or game field.  Let his play determine whether or NOT he sits or starts.  If I had guess one way or the other I would think Mariota would be able to play and be somewhat effective early because of his mobility.  When in doubt, run it out.

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2015's Quarterback Conundrum [Numbers suggest Mariota more NFL ready than expected]
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Greg Peshek Out of the Box Rotoworld
 
Another year, another crop of Quarterbacks. Although this year there appears to be less controversy over whom is the signal caller, the underlying statistics to their passes are still more than worth examining. Of course stats are not and should not be the final word for judging a QB, but we can analyze each QB and find out how those traits we see on film may translate to the NFL. We may even be surprised by the outcomes.
 
To get this data, I’ve charted every pass from every game by these quarterbacks. Looking at everything from down and distance to release location, we can break down the underlying stats to what we see when watching them play. You may note that not all stats will match with other stats services, since we’ve included drops as completions and taken out irrelevant throws like throw-aways and hail-marys.
 
Where Did They Throw the Ball?
QHpgdOo.png
- Immediately, the number of screens each QB threw stands out as interesting. Much is made of system quarterbacks who throw an inordinate amount of screens and in this case, only Hundley fits that bill. Both Winston and Mariota come in under average in percentage of screens thrown.
 
- With that, Hundley threw downfield in the 10+ yard range significantly less than both of the other QBs. Just about 16% of his passes were in the critical 11-20 yard intermediate zone and only 10.6% of his passes made it past 20 yards.
 
Jameis Winston had a fairly normal distribution of passes, only swapping slightly less screens for more short 1-5 yard passes. Although the comparison can’t be made based on this stat alone, the average distribution of throws is similar to Andrew Luck’s senior year.
 
Standing out in Mariota’s charts is how often he threw to the pro-level 11-20 yard zone. 33.4% of his total passes were directed there, nearly 11% more than average. Although that did come as the expense of the long ball – where he only placed 9.7% of his passes.
 
How Accurately Did They Throw It?
dOqLYSQ.png
- Through these three quarterbacks, Mariota was the only one that exceeded average on the intermediate and long throws. By our stats, Mariota’s 70.1% in the 11-20 yard zone would have been near tops in last year’s class. Even more encouraging is that these quality completion percentages were on a larger than average amount of his passes – meaning he didn’t just rack up stats on a small sample size
 
- Somewhat surprisingly, Winston’s accuracy in the 11-20 yard range was lacking in his last season. Although we can see him make quality, professional throws on tape in that intermediate zone, it didn’t translate on the whole to his completion percentage.
 
- Not a surprise is Hundley’s ability on short throws, but complete lack of accuracy on the intermediate and long balls. His 11-20 yard and 20+ yard completion percentages are among the worst we’ve seen in the past three to four classes.
 
How Did They Do Under Pressure?
YYXLART.png
- Hundley’s struggles against pressure and the blitz stick out like a sore thumb. While his completion percentage of 65.7% was only 6% below Winston, his accuracy facing pressure was drastically below both Winston and Mariota.
 
- Winston’s numbers in these two categories are a bit of a dichotomy as he performed admirably against the blitz, but did not do quite as well under pressure. His 57.7% completion rate against pressure would have been close to the top of last year’s class but still behind both Bridgewater and Bortles.
 
- Meanwhile, our numbers have Mariota competing 10% more of his passes when pressured than Winston at a completion rate of 67.7%. That would be nearly 5% above last year’s leader throwing against pressure – Teddy Bridgewater.
 
What Type of Throws Were They?
 
This year I tracked locations on the field to see what type of results would come out of it. I look specifically at initial snap location, release location and catch location which has given me the ability to break down pocket movement, actual throw length and success as throwing to different locations.
8Ejsd37.png
- Winston was most successful throwing outside the numbers with a completion rate of 67.7% which is impressive given that the scheme he played in asked him to do that more often than the others.
 
- Mariota on the other hand found his receivers accurately when throwing between the numbers and the hashes which lines up with Oregon’s propensity to throw down the seam. When we combine this knowledge with Mariota’s 11-20 yard accuracy from above, it paints a clear picture of where his strengths lie.
 
This one requires a little bit of explaining. These are throws sorted by actual throw distance from one spot on the field to the catch point. To simplify, you could call any throw in the Far Left and Mid Left bucket as throwing across their body. While any throw in the Mid Right and Far Right groups would mean having to turn their body substantially the make the throw. Any throw in the Slight Left, Middle or Slight Right are throws right in front of the QB. This differs from actual target location because it takes into account the release point of the pass. These are a bit experimental, but still potentially interesting.
CRMPOZb.png
- Mariota was extremely successful at throwing to his right at all levels – hitting 74% of his Far Right passes and consistently connecting with his receivers in the Mid and Slight passes as well.
 
- Both Winston and Hundley had opposite experiences of Mariota, they were both more accurate overall throwing to their left than their right.
 
- Both Winston and Hundley struggled with sub 60% completion percentages on passes where they had to open up their body and throw far to the right.
 
Passing Charts
 
Below we’ve included throw location charts for each quarterback. These map out where each targeted pass was thrown. These can give you a feel for where a quarterback targeted and how successful he was in those areas.
 
CsBQb2i.png
 
 
epjafBw.png
 
 
bCA4dTT.png

 

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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/52722/349/2015s-quarterback-conundrum?pg=1

2015's Quarterback Conundrum [Numbers suggest Mariota more NFL ready than expected]

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Greg Peshek Out of the Box Rotoworld

Another year, another crop of Quarterbacks. Although this year there appears to be less controversy over whom is the signal caller, the underlying statistics to their passes are still more than worth examining. Of course stats are not and should not be the final word for judging a QB, but we can analyze each QB and find out how those traits we see on film may translate to the NFL. We may even be surprised by the outcomes.

To get this data, I’ve charted every pass from every game by these quarterbacks. Looking at everything from down and distance to release location, we can break down the underlying stats to what we see when watching them play. You may note that not all stats will match with other stats services, since we’ve included drops as completions and taken out irrelevant throws like throw-aways and hail-marys.

Where Did They Throw the Ball?

QHpgdOo.png

- Immediately, the number of screens each QB threw stands out as interesting. Much is made of system quarterbacks who throw an inordinate amount of screens and in this case, only Hundley fits that bill. Both Winston and Mariota come in under average in percentage of screens thrown.

- With that, Hundley threw downfield in the 10+ yard range significantly less than both of the other QBs. Just about 16% of his passes were in the critical 11-20 yard intermediate zone and only 10.6% of his passes made it past 20 yards.

- Jameis Winston had a fairly normal distribution of passes, only swapping slightly less screens for more short 1-5 yard passes. Although the comparison can’t be made based on this stat alone, the average distribution of throws is similar to Andrew Luck’s senior year.

- Standing out in Mariota’s charts is how often he threw to the pro-level 11-20 yard zone. 33.4% of his total passes were directed there, nearly 11% more than average. Although that did come as the expense of the long ball – where he only placed 9.7% of his passes.

How Accurately Did They Throw It?

dOqLYSQ.png

- Through these three quarterbacks, Mariota was the only one that exceeded average on the intermediate and long throws. By our stats, Mariota’s 70.1% in the 11-20 yard zone would have been near tops in last year’s class. Even more encouraging is that these quality completion percentages were on a larger than average amount of his passes – meaning he didn’t just rack up stats on a small sample size

- Somewhat surprisingly, Winston’s accuracy in the 11-20 yard range was lacking in his last season. Although we can see him make quality, professional throws on tape in that intermediate zone, it didn’t translate on the whole to his completion percentage.

- Not a surprise is Hundley’s ability on short throws, but complete lack of accuracy on the intermediate and long balls. His 11-20 yard and 20+ yard completion percentages are among the worst we’ve seen in the past three to four classes.

How Did They Do Under Pressure?

YYXLART.png

- Hundley’s struggles against pressure and the blitz stick out like a sore thumb. While his completion percentage of 65.7% was only 6% below Winston, his accuracy facing pressure was drastically below both Winston and Mariota.

- Winston’s numbers in these two categories are a bit of a dichotomy as he performed admirably against the blitz, but did not do quite as well under pressure. His 57.7% completion rate against pressure would have been close to the top of last year’s class but still behind both Bridgewater and Bortles.

- Meanwhile, our numbers have Mariota competing 10% more of his passes when pressured than Winston at a completion rate of 67.7%. That would be nearly 5% above last year’s leader throwing against pressure – Teddy Bridgewater.

What Type of Throws Were They?

This year I tracked locations on the field to see what type of results would come out of it. I look specifically at initial snap location, release location and catch location which has given me the ability to break down pocket movement, actual throw length and success as throwing to different locations.

8Ejsd37.png

- Winston was most successful throwing outside the numbers with a completion rate of 67.7% which is impressive given that the scheme he played in asked him to do that more often than the others.

- Mariota on the other hand found his receivers accurately when throwing between the numbers and the hashes which lines up with Oregon’s propensity to throw down the seam. When we combine this knowledge with Mariota’s 11-20 yard accuracy from above, it paints a clear picture of where his strengths lie.

This one requires a little bit of explaining. These are throws sorted by actual throw distance from one spot on the field to the catch point. To simplify, you could call any throw in the Far Left and Mid Left bucket as throwing across their body. While any throw in the Mid Right and Far Right groups would mean having to turn their body substantially the make the throw. Any throw in the Slight Left, Middle or Slight Right are throws right in front of the QB. This differs from actual target location because it takes into account the release point of the pass. These are a bit experimental, but still potentially interesting.

CRMPOZb.png

- Mariota was extremely successful at throwing to his right at all levels – hitting 74% of his Far Right passes and consistently connecting with his receivers in the Mid and Slight passes as well.

- Both Winston and Hundley had opposite experiences of Mariota, they were both more accurate overall throwing to their left than their right.

- Both Winston and Hundley struggled with sub 60% completion percentages on passes where they had to open up their body and throw far to the right.

Passing Charts

Below we’ve included throw location charts for each quarterback. These map out where each targeted pass was thrown. These can give you a feel for where a quarterback targeted and how successful he was in those areas.

CsBQb2i.png

epjafBw.png

bCA4dTT.png

Yeah but I saw this YouTube clip where at the 7 minute mark he threw a pass I didn't like so...

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2015's Quarterback Conundrum [Numbers suggest Mariota more NFL ready than expected]
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Greg Peshek Out of the Box Rotoworld
 
Another year, another crop of Quarterbacks. Although this year there appears to be less controversy over whom is the signal caller, the underlying statistics to their passes are still more than worth examining. Of course stats are not and should not be the final word for judging a QB, but we can analyze each QB and find out how those traits we see on film may translate to the NFL. We may even be surprised by the outcomes.
 
To get this data, I’ve charted every pass from every game by these quarterbacks. Looking at everything from down and distance to release location, we can break down the underlying stats to what we see when watching them play. You may note that not all stats will match with other stats services, since we’ve included drops as completions and taken out irrelevant throws like throw-aways and hail-marys.
 
Where Did They Throw the Ball?
QHpgdOo.png
- Immediately, the number of screens each QB threw stands out as interesting. Much is made of system quarterbacks who throw an inordinate amount of screens and in this case, only Hundley fits that bill. Both Winston and Mariota come in under average in percentage of screens thrown.
 
- With that, Hundley threw downfield in the 10+ yard range significantly less than both of the other QBs. Just about 16% of his passes were in the critical 11-20 yard intermediate zone and only 10.6% of his passes made it past 20 yards.
 
Jameis Winston had a fairly normal distribution of passes, only swapping slightly less screens for more short 1-5 yard passes. Although the comparison can’t be made based on this stat alone, the average distribution of throws is similar to Andrew Luck’s senior year.
 
Standing out in Mariota’s charts is how often he threw to the pro-level 11-20 yard zone. 33.4% of his total passes were directed there, nearly 11% more than average. Although that did come as the expense of the long ball – where he only placed 9.7% of his passes.
 
How Accurately Did They Throw It?
dOqLYSQ.png
- Through these three quarterbacks, Mariota was the only one that exceeded average on the intermediate and long throws. By our stats, Mariota’s 70.1% in the 11-20 yard zone would have been near tops in last year’s class. Even more encouraging is that these quality completion percentages were on a larger than average amount of his passes – meaning he didn’t just rack up stats on a small sample size
 
- Somewhat surprisingly, Winston’s accuracy in the 11-20 yard range was lacking in his last season. Although we can see him make quality, professional throws on tape in that intermediate zone, it didn’t translate on the whole to his completion percentage.
 
- Not a surprise is Hundley’s ability on short throws, but complete lack of accuracy on the intermediate and long balls. His 11-20 yard and 20+ yard completion percentages are among the worst we’ve seen in the past three to four classes.
 
How Did They Do Under Pressure?
YYXLART.png
- Hundley’s struggles against pressure and the blitz stick out like a sore thumb. While his completion percentage of 65.7% was only 6% below Winston, his accuracy facing pressure was drastically below both Winston and Mariota.
 
- Winston’s numbers in these two categories are a bit of a dichotomy as he performed admirably against the blitz, but did not do quite as well under pressure. His 57.7% completion rate against pressure would have been close to the top of last year’s class but still behind both Bridgewater and Bortles.
 
- Meanwhile, our numbers have Mariota competing 10% more of his passes when pressured than Winston at a completion rate of 67.7%. That would be nearly 5% above last year’s leader throwing against pressure – Teddy Bridgewater.
 
What Type of Throws Were They?
 
This year I tracked locations on the field to see what type of results would come out of it. I look specifically at initial snap location, release location and catch location which has given me the ability to break down pocket movement, actual throw length and success as throwing to different locations.
8Ejsd37.png
- Winston was most successful throwing outside the numbers with a completion rate of 67.7% which is impressive given that the scheme he played in asked him to do that more often than the others.
 
- Mariota on the other hand found his receivers accurately when throwing between the numbers and the hashes which lines up with Oregon’s propensity to throw down the seam. When we combine this knowledge with Mariota’s 11-20 yard accuracy from above, it paints a clear picture of where his strengths lie.
 
This one requires a little bit of explaining. These are throws sorted by actual throw distance from one spot on the field to the catch point. To simplify, you could call any throw in the Far Left and Mid Left bucket as throwing across their body. While any throw in the Mid Right and Far Right groups would mean having to turn their body substantially the make the throw. Any throw in the Slight Left, Middle or Slight Right are throws right in front of the QB. This differs from actual target location because it takes into account the release point of the pass. These are a bit experimental, but still potentially interesting.
CRMPOZb.png
- Mariota was extremely successful at throwing to his right at all levels – hitting 74% of his Far Right passes and consistently connecting with his receivers in the Mid and Slight passes as well.
 
- Both Winston and Hundley had opposite experiences of Mariota, they were both more accurate overall throwing to their left than their right.
 
- Both Winston and Hundley struggled with sub 60% completion percentages on passes where they had to open up their body and throw far to the right.
 
Passing Charts
 
Below we’ve included throw location charts for each quarterback. These map out where each targeted pass was thrown. These can give you a feel for where a quarterback targeted and how successful he was in those areas.
 
CsBQb2i.png
 
 
epjafBw.png
 
 
bCA4dTT.png

 

 

Thanks lot for all the data.  The stat on the preponderance of very short passes by Hundley that I alluded to in an earlier post (but could not locate) was 54.6% of his completions being 6 yards or less.

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