Larz Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 You're missing my point. My point is that the methods used to evaluate these guys' potential value in the league is grossly out of proportion to their actual value. It happens over and over and over. you have to also look at the business side of the NFL. owners care about the QB. Owners sometimes tell GM's they want a QB that will sell tickets. Being on ESPN everyday gets owners eyes attention and they get over drafted As fans we like to think GM's make the call all the time, but the reality is owners interfere all the time and celebrity QB's get over-drafted to sell tickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 you have to also look at the business side of the NFL. owners care about the QB. Owners sometimes tell GM's they want a QB that will sell tickets. Being on ESPN everyday gets owners eyes attention and they get over drafted As fans we like to think GM's make the call all the time, but the reality is owners interfere all the time and celebrity QB's get over-drafted to sell tickets Good point. And that point may also contribute to an explanation of why Heisman winners are drafted with picks that seem to go well beyond the value of the selected player. In fact, it might contribute a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Right. But he was drafted with the #1 overall pick. Has his career justified that pick? Did the pick return to the Bengals the value of investing that pick? Did Plunkett return the value to the Pats of investing the #1 overall pick that year? Did Testaverde return the value to the Bucs of investing the #1 overall pick that year? If the Bucs spend this year's #1 overall pick on WInston, is that a wise investment? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Yes So you're predicting Winston will become a franchise QB? Pretty bold prediction, considering only about 21% of non-Heisman QB first-round selections become franchise QB's. Even if Winston's chances are as good as historical non-Heisman QB's selected in the first round, you have only about a 1 in 5 chance of being right. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 So you're predicting Winston will become a franchise QB? Pretty bold prediction, considering only about 21% of non-Heisman QB first-round selections become franchise QB's. Even if Winston's chances are as good as historical non-Heisman QB's selected in the first round, you have only about a 1 in 5 chance of being right. Good luck. False. Whether he is successful or otherwise in the future has nothing to do with how many sportswriters voted for him to win the Heisman 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 False. Whether he is successful or otherwise in the future has nothing to do with how many sportswriters voted for him to win the Heisman 2 years ago. Of course it does. As one enterprising board member has pointed out, his selection may be due to a meddling owner. It could also be due to whichever GM/HC team selects him placing an irrationally high value on a Heisman winner. One thing we know for sure is that no Heisman QB drafted in the first round since the AFL/NFL merger has become a franchise QB. Almost no question that selecting him in the first round will be a huge mistake. History says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 No Super Bowl winning quarterback has ever been caught stealing crab legs. Your move, Buccaneers. I am a fan of Alaskan king crab legs, but if I am anywhere in Florida I am going for stone crab claws. Hopefully, he did not get pincjed with something as pedestrian as snow crab. The whole crab legs episode is deliciously implausible. Maybe when Jameis has his own sports apparel line he can incorporate a crab leg into the logo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 But the real question is, why was he drafted so high? What we need to explain is why have Heisman winners been getting dratfed in the first round with alarmingly increasing frequency in recent years? And why are this year's two Heisman QB's expected to go with very high picks? It would seem a reasonable conclusion is that drafters, and draft evaluators, are smitten with the Heisman and thus induced into spending a much higher draft pick than is justified by the player’s real potential. The answer is amazingly simple, and in all your intense research studying the effects of winning the Heisman Trophy on becoming a successful QB you should've been able to figure it out: there are more of them. From 2000 - 2014, 13 QBs won the Heisman. From 1985 - 99, 6 QBs won the Heisman. From 1970 - 84, 3 QBs won the Heisman. Mystery solved, let's go get a goddamned snack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I am a fan of Alaskan king crab legs, but if I am anywhere in Florida I am going for stone crab claws. Hopefully, he did not get pincjed with something as pedestrian as snow crab. The whole crab legs episode is deliciously implausible. Maybe when Jameis has his own sports apparel line he can incorporate a crab leg into the logo. Your move, Jet Fan RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 The answer is amazingly simple, and in all your intense research studying the effects of winning the Heisman Trophy on becoming a successful QB you should've been able to figure it out: there are more of them. From 2000 - 2014, 13 QBs won the Heisman. From 1985 - 99, 6 QBs won the Heisman. From 1970 - 84, 3 QBs won the Heisman. Mystery solved, let's go get a goddamned snack. Actually, it is your answer that is amazingly simplistic. And sorry bud, mystery not solved: Looking at the 2000-2014 data, it is worthwhile subdividing it a bit. There were 13 Heisman QB winners during that period. But looking at 2007-2014, there were 7 QB winners. Assuming the two in this year's draft are selected in the first round, which appears overwhelmingly likely,that will be 6 out of 7 Heisman QB winners who were drafted in the first round. An alarming 85+ % rate. But looking at the period 2000-2006, when 6 QB's won the Heisman, only 2 were drafted in the first round, or just 33+%. Continuing back, in the 1985-1999 period, when there were 6 Heisman QB's, again only 2 were drafted in the 1st round, or again just 33+%. So the Heisman QB draft rate from 1985-2006 was flat. Looking now at the 1970-1984 period, of the 3 QB's who won the Heisman, one was drafted in the first round, or again 33+%. This shows that over the stretch from 1970-2006, the Heisman QB first-round draft rate was flat at 33+%. Whereas, in the 2007-2014. period, the rate has leapt up to 85+%. Even if you want to exclude the 2 guys from this year's draft, that would be 4 out of 5 Heisman QB's drafted prior to the 2 who are in this year's draft, or an alarming 80%. Clearly, there has been a huge upswing in the rate at which Heisman QB's are being drafted in the first round since 2007. And the on-field performances clearly do not support this hysteria in selecting Heisman QB's at a much higher draft level than is warranted. And the huge leap in the rate of first-round selection of these guys is not because there were more QB's who won the Heisman. The percentage of Heisman QB's selected in the first round was flat up to 2006, and then that percentage leapt up. So the overall number has nothing to do with it. So much for the simplistic analysis. Case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 as you look at the "data" how to adjust for the bazillion variables that go into a QB's success in the NFL ? and my point about the owners over drafting these kids just goes to my point that they wind up on crappy teams as an owners shiny new toy, and that they aren't always drafted where they "should" be until you show and cause and effect relationship, there is no curse and there is no reason to stay away from a heisman QB the take away is if you take a heisman QB, don't take him for his celebrity status, surround him with weapons, and don't play him until he is ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 as you look at the "data" how to adjust for the bazillion variables that go into a QB's success in the NFL ? and my point about the owners over drafting these kids just goes to my point that they wind up on crappy teams as an owners shiny new toy, and that they aren't always drafted where they "should" be until you show and cause and effect relationship, there is no curse and there is no reason to stay away from a heisman QB the take away is if you take a heisman QB, don't take him for his celebrity status, surround him with weapons, and don't play him until he is ready Never said there was any curse. Please do not attempt to put words into my mouth. What I am saying is that the methods being used to decide that selecting Heisman QB's in the first round is worthwhile are defective. And the history bears that out. And is also borne out by the very poor performance of these guys on the field. Most of them should be selected 3rd round or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Never said there was any curse. Please do not attempt to put words into my mouth. What I am saying is that the methods being used to decide that selecting Heisman QB's in the first round is worthwhile are defective. And the history bears that out. And is also borne out by the very poor performance of these guys on the field. Most of them should be selected 3rd round or later. Plenty of the methods employed to select players in the NFL draft are broken. There's no basis for your insistence that Heisman quarterbacks bust for reasons unidentified but specific to being Heisman quarterbacks rather than for the same reasons that teams screw up anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Plenty of the methods employed to select players in the NFL draft are broken. There's no basis for your insistence that Heisman quarterbacks bust for reasons unidentified but specific to being Heisman quarterbacks rather than for the same reasons that teams screw up anything else. Well, that is something we can both agree on. I admit no precise cause for Heisman QB's turning into NFL busts has been offered by me. But it would not surprise me that there is something about that award that causes those who are making the draft decisions to lean in the direction of selecting those players at a higher draft level than their expected NFL performance actually warrants. And I think it is reasonable that owners may put pressure on the draft team for reasons that have nothing to do with expected football performance. It is also possible that Heisman winners feel an especially high level of pressure to perform owing to having won that award, and some may respond poorly to such pressure. And then again, there may be some Heisman QB's who feel the fact that they won that award means they're so good they need not put in the level of effort needed to learn the pro game. These are just some suggested possibilities for an explanation, which others may agree with or not. But please note there is no attempt here to attribute what I think is clear historical evidence to any kind of curse, jinx, or other irrational cause. I feel strongly the history can be explained rationally, but I make no claim that I will be able to offer that explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Of course it does. As one enterprising board member has pointed out, his selection may be due to a meddling owner. It could also be due to whichever GM/HC team selects him placing an irrationally high value on a Heisman winner. One thing we know for sure is that no Heisman QB drafted in the first round since the AFL/NFL merger has become a franchise QB. Almost no question that selecting him in the first round will be a huge mistake. History says so. And nobody cares about your dumbass point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Of course it does. As one enterprising board member has pointed out, his selection may be due to a meddling owner. It could also be due to whichever GM/HC team selects him placing an irrationally high value on a Heisman winner. One thing we know for sure is that no Heisman QB drafted in the first round since the AFL/NFL merger has become a franchise QB. Almost no question that selecting him in the first round will be a huge mistake. History says so. History is based on too many factors and too few numbers of individuals. Your attempt to draw mathematical proof is silliness. For example, you're citing significant digits to the hundredths or thousandths place when your # of subjects, n, is nowhere near a hundred (let alone multiple hundreds, or thousands). The cause and effect is nonsensical, unless you believe every one of these Heisman QBs - but for winning this award - would have otherwise been selected in rounds 4 or lower (if at all). If Mariota or Winston fail it has nothing to do with winning the Heisman Trophy. I don't know why you find this so unacceptable. If Charles Woodson broke his leg in the 4th game of his junior season (and therefore wouldn't have edged out a Heisman victory), it would not have therefore made Peyton Manning a bust of an NFL QB instead of one of the best (if not the best) NFL QBs ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I'm glad this thread about not wanting Mariota has gone on this long, but the reason it's gone on this long is mind-boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I'm glad this thread about not wanting Mariota has gone on this long, but the reason it's gone on this long is mind-boggling. I'm enjoying myself. Shush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I'm enjoying myself. Shush. This is your wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 This is your wheelhouse. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 "Data." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 And nobody cares about your dumbass point Oh, people do care about it. That's why there have been lots of replies. They just don't agree with it. But that's OK, because the board is for expressiong opinions, right? Dumbass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 History is based on too many factors and too few numbers of individuals. Your attempt to draw mathematical proof is silliness. For example, you're citing significant digits to the hundredths or thousandths place when your # of subjects, n, is nowhere near a hundred (let alone multiple hundreds, or thousands). The cause and effect is nonsensical, unless you believe every one of these Heisman QBs - but for winning this award - would have otherwise been selected in rounds 4 or lower (if at all). If Mariota or Winston fail it has nothing to do with winning the Heisman Trophy. I don't know why you find this so unacceptable. If Charles Woodson broke his leg in the 4th game of his junior season (and therefore wouldn't have edged out a Heisman victory), it would not have therefore made Peyton Manning a bust of an NFL QB instead of one of the best (if not the best) NFL QBs ever. Well, it's silliness to you, but a serious idea to me. You think the future performance of Heisman QB's cannot be estimated by the past performance of previous Heisman QB's, while I do. We'll never see eye to eye on this, so I guess what we should do now is to agree to disagree, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prime21 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 From Rotoworld ESPN's Ron Jaworski is hearing from his sources around the league that Oregon QB Marcus Mariota will go No. 1 to the Bucs. Jaws is not a reporter and has no history of breaking news. He also made the comments on a local Philadelphia sports show, not nationally on ESPN. Still, it's a reminder that we wouldn't completely rule out the Bucs pulling a surprise and taking Mariota over Jameis Winston. The Glazer family has the final say on the pick and they reportedly are taking community relations into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 From Rotoworld ESPN's Ron Jaworski is hearing from his sources around the league that Oregon QB Marcus Mariota will go No. 1 to the Bucs. Jaws is not a reporter and has no history of breaking news. He also made the comments on a local Philadelphia sports show, not nationally on ESPN. Still, it's a reminder that we wouldn't completely rule out the Bucs pulling a surprise and taking Mariota over Jameis Winston. The Glazer family has the final say on the pick and they reportedly are taking community relations into account. Solid football reason for picking the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony The Wiz Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 I'm confused as to why there's been so much commotion over taking Mariota lately. Some people are suggesting moving up to #2 to take him ? Are they f high ? I understand the argument for moving down but moving up ? I just don't think they really know what they're talking about. Having fitz and Geno at the quarterback position is enough drama to handle. Adding Mariota will not improve the team whatsoever this year- why pick him when you can add a starter on the o line or at OLB?!? It makes no sense to pick him! I mean I understand why the jets are pretending to be interested- from what I've seen it seems like a total bluff at this point. You don't want Mariota but you rather have Geno. Now that is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Solid football reason for picking the guy. Lol This is the same franchise that traded a 1st rd pick to rent Revis for 1 season and gave Josh McCown a big contract because Brandin Marshall made him look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Solid football reason for picking the guy. Eh, I get it. Rice, AP, Greg Hardy, haven't exactly been doing the NFL any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Speaking of which... http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/04/13/former-49ers-running-back-lawrence-phillips-suspected-of-killing-prison-cellmate/ Former 49ers Running Back Lawrence Phillips Suspected Of Killing Prison Cellmate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Speaking of which... http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/04/13/former-49ers-running-back-lawrence-phillips-suspected-of-killing-prison-cellmate/ Former 49ers Running Back Lawrence Phillips Suspected Of Killing Prison Cellmate Maybe they can put Phillips and Hernandez together in a cell with Rae Carruth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Re Mariota, 1st mayock moves him up to 1, then Jaws saws one of his 'sauces' says Mariota will be going 1st and Kelly is saying he will winner multiple super bowls. This all reeks of a massive smoke screen to push up the value of mariota. Kelly has all sorts of reasons of over pumping this guys tires. The big question is which team is going to fall for this charade and trade up to get him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Fan RI Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Lol This is the same franchise that traded a 1st rd pick to rent Revis for 1 season and gave Josh McCown a big contract because Brandin Marshall made him look good. Same franchise that wasted its #1 overall pick on Testaverde, and will probably similarly waste their current #1 overall pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsmanjb Posted April 14, 2015 Author Share Posted April 14, 2015 You don't want Mariota but you rather have Geno. Now that is sad. Do you think Mariota is ready to play for ANY team in the 2015 season ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony The Wiz Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Do you think Mariota is ready to play for ANY team in the 2015 season ?Yes, in the right situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsmanjb Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 Yes, in the right situation. No scenario where this will happen and especially not for the Jets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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