Kiper's latest Mock (4.)

[Sperm Edwards]

A guard is not going to be the difference-maker between a champion and trash. Even if the alternative is no better than Willie Colon as a worst-case scenario, he's still a serviceable starter. And if Colon truly is the alternative, then trade down half a round to take one, or draft a guard in round 2 if you want a truly top notch guard prospect.

 

At #6 it should be a rare game-changer type. This is supposed to be the luxury of not drafting for need by filling in holes in FA before the draft. You don't pass up on a potential game-changer because there was this one year, when we had below-average talent at QB, when we wanted to upgrade one of the guard positions. 

 

Good grief. Guards - good ones - are available in free agency every year. Stud free agent "#1" WRs aren't (which is what made the low compensation transaction for Marshall so unique).  Demon pass rushers generally aren't either. And top franchise QBs need a perfect storm of circumstances, where another team has two of them and they're letting go of the older/injured one (Brees, P.Manning). CBs do become available in free agency but they're so expensive now (relative to other positions) that teams understandably try to draft a great one as a dual-effort to clear up massive amounts of cap space to use on others.

 

Drafting him at #6 isn't just passing up on the other player we could have had (take your pick). It's also the extra pick(s) we're passing up on by not trading down out of the slot. 

 

He should be no higher than 15 overall on any GMs ranking sheet. Again, if another wants to draft him higher, let them.

[faba]

At 6 no way- Giants will take him further down

[T0mShane]

Mariota is going between 10-20

[peebag]

Mariota is going between 10-20

Lolz.

[#27TheDominator]

Yes he is a guard. A guard that is going in the top 10 if we take him or not, he's that good of a lineman. If the FO is fine with Willie Colon and his false starts and turnstyle ways we're in trouble. Our receiving core is pretty damn solid at this point with the addition of Marshall and while I still want a speedster to add to it, that O-Line needs antoher stud on it. O-Lines are only as good as its weakest link and we need to shore that up. I'm tired of hoping developmental players step up and take that spot because it is going to get our QB's killed along with the season.

 

Um... WIllie Colon is not a starter on this depth chart.  Carpenter was signed to take his spot.  They also have Brewer, Aboushi, Winters, Dozier and a host of other dudes and that is pre-draft.  Scherff should probably be considered a developmental prospect too. 

[Mike135]

Obviously not a flashy pick but I'd be fine with it. Of course, like most people, if the pick isn't Mariota, I was figuring pass rusher or WR. But given the great FA period, it's tough to go wrong in this draft. Hell, they could take Tre Jackson in the 2nd or 3rd in addition to Scherff and I'd still be happy with it. Just so long as they get a Duke Johnson type to fill the receiving/explosive RB role.

Upgrading the oline is almost never a bad pick.

[flgreen]

Mariota is going between 10-20

Mariota is most likely going at #2, and don't be stunned if it's by the Jets.  i really think the Jets are going to do something to surprise us.  I'm not ruling out Peat at 6 if Mariota and cooper are both gone

[AFJF]

Seems like these guys are required to change at least 24 predictions w/ each mock.  I used to look so forward to mock drafts because there used to be just a few that changed very little...now there are a billion of them and no two are the same. 

[jgb]

Yep.

 

One of the advantages of having a Marshall/Decker duo is that we can afford to swing and miss (if White is even a miss) if we swing for the fences at WR.

 

A freaking guard who could play tackle? No thanks. I remember the last time a guard - two guards, actually - were presented as good value that high. That Cooper in particular was going to be a sure HOFer even if it's at an unsexy position. If he didn't illustrate how there aren't any sure things I don't know what to tell anyone (whatever the leading cause, he's started 2 games in 2 seasons). 

 

If they want Scherf, fine. But trade down at least 10 slots to do it and if he's not there he's not there. At least in the process we'd pick up another 2nd rounder and more. If someone else wants to draft a guard that high then let them. 

 

Taking an offensive lineman that high in the draft, the player should be a pure, unadulterated left tackle prospect and nothing else.

 

one could point to a million examples of "sure fire" picks at every position that busted. your cited examples hardly dispel the notion that guards are poor top 10 selections.

[#27TheDominator]

Mariota is going between 10-20

 

Trade down with Browns for both firsts.  Take Scherff and Mariota.  BOOM!

 

one could point to a million examples of "sure fire" picks at every position that busted. your cited examples hardly dispel the notion that guards are poor top 10 selections.

 

Um... Dispel?  That is exactly what his cited examples were saying.

[SouthernJet]

Trade down with Browns for both firsts.  Take Scherff and Mariota.  BOOM!

 

 

Um... Dispel?  That is exactly what his cited examples were saying.

I think he is saying maybe there have been Guards drafted in Top10 that succeeded 

 

but dropping to 9 and getting picks/sherff would be best

 

new GM, no one knows, since he never ran his own draft before,,we will find out

[derp]

If they want to go offense - which makes sense to me a. given Kiper's point regarding the defense being good and the offense having some question marks and b. because the only defensive prospect that makes sense at 6 is an edge rusher and as much as we'd all like one, Bowles is another defensive guy who schemes to get free rushers and may not see as much value in having an edge guy - I think a WR and/or a trade down makes the most sense.

 

I would have zero issue taking a tackle. If they truly believe that Scherff is a tackle who can start over Giacomini year one and eventually take over for Ferguson, fine. If he's a guard, that's a problem. Zach Martin was great last year and I get that the NFL is a copycat league, but he was a mid first round selection. If that's where Scherff goes, fine. But not at #6 overall. I think it has to be a guy you want to play at tackle. Really the best case scenario at tackle is finding someone they like long-term developmentally on day 2 or day 3. I wouldn't be surprised with one at #37. I don't think the value is there at #6 though. So, tackle or guard in a trade down would be fine.

 

Quarterback would be tremendous in the right scenario - I don't think the right scenario presents itself this year.

 

Running back could work in a trade down I guess. I'm not big on first round running backs though, this history if awful. Another position that could make sense at #37 or later, particularly if guys slide out of the first round.

 

There isn't a first round tight end in this class.

 

Wide receiver is intriguing. You've got two starting caliber guys in Marshall and Decker and a solid slot in Kerley. Marshall's getting up there in years and isn't going to be around forever. So long-term #1 is a question. Gailey also ran 3 wide sets on something absurd like 85% of his plays up in Buffalo. He spreads things out. I love Kerley, but he can be upgraded. At #6 overall in either Cooper or White (or with another WR in a trade down) you can slot in a #3 receiver who will have an opportunity to play a bunch of snaps right off the bat while not being relied upon to be a true #1 right away. But long-term, there's a need for a #1 receiver which that player can theoretically fill down the road. And it addresses the offense which is the big need for the team. Quarterback is still a question mark, but a Marshall, Decker, Cooper/White, Kerley receiver group with Amaro at tight end gives plenty of options for whoever it is to throw to. I think it's a good short-term and long-term move.

[jack48]

 Why he thinks this would be a good pick is beyond me.  There are a lot of pretty good O lineman around whpo were not top 10 picks. It is one of those positions that does not require a primo pick.

[Jolot]

If Cooper is on the board he's gotta be the pick imo...if he's gone then one of those edge pass rushers.

[jack48]

Yes he is a guard. A guard that is going in the top 10 if we take him or not, he's that good of a lineman. If the FO is fine with Willie Colon and his false starts and turnstyle ways we're in trouble. Our receiving core is pretty damn solid at this point with the addition of Marshall and while I still want a speedster to add to it, that O-Line needs antoher stud on it. O-Lines are only as good as its weakest link and we need to shore that up. I'm tired of hoping developmental players step up and take that spot because it is going to get our QB's killed along with the season.

Then take Collins. He is more of a left tackle prospect than Scherf.

[slats]

one could point to a million examples of "sure fire" picks at every position that busted. your cited examples hardly dispel the notion that guards are poor top 10 selections.

  

He explains it better in this one:

A guard is not going to be the difference-maker between a champion and trash. Even if the alternative is no better than Willie Colon as a worst-case scenario, he's still a serviceable starter. And if Colon truly is the alternative, then trade down half a round to take one, or draft a guard in round 2 if you want a truly top notch guard prospect.

 

At #6 it should be a rare game-changer type. This is supposed to be the luxury of not drafting for need by filling in holes in FA before the draft. You don't pass up on a potential game-changer because there was this one year, when we had below-average talent at QB, when we wanted to upgrade one of the guard positions. 

 

Good grief. Guards - good ones - are available in free agency every year. Stud free agent "#1" WRs aren't (which is what made the low compensation transaction for Marshall so unique).  Demon pass rushers generally aren't either. And top franchise QBs need a perfect storm of circumstances, where another team has two of them and they're letting go of the older/injured one (Brees, P.Manning). CBs do become available in free agency but they're so expensive now (relative to other positions) that teams understandably try to draft a great one as a dual-effort to clear up massive amounts of cap space to use on others.

 

Drafting him at #6 isn't just passing up on the other player we could have had (take your pick). It's also the extra pick(s) we're passing up on by not trading down out of the slot. 

 

He should be no higher than 15 overall on any GMs ranking sheet. Again, if another wants to draft him higher, let them.

You can always sign a good/great guard in free agency. The other positions the Jets will be looking at there as legitimate top six selections will be WR, pass rusher, and potentially QB. You don't take a guard/RT over those positions. The only OL that should go that high is a franchise LT.

[JetsHex]

Um... WIllie Colon is not a starter on this depth chart.  Carpenter was signed to take his spot.  They also have Brewer, Aboushi, Winters, Dozier and a host of other dudes and that is pre-draft.  Scherff should probably be considered a developmental prospect too. 

Colon is the incumbent starter with experience. Carpenter is an LG and really isn't that great. The other guys you mentioned are people I hope never to see the field as a starter. The only one may be Aboushi and that if he makes the same amount of improvement from his first year to his second because that guy was lost and hopeless in his first. We need another stud at RG. Don't get me wrong, I'm defending the Scherff pick because Cooper and Fowler are off the board here in this mock which I would rather have. The other OLBs and pass rushers scream Vernon Gholston to me. Kevin White? Ok I would take him as well. I guess that's the beauty of our position is that we are improving the team either way we go.

[SouthernJet]

If Cooper is on the board he's gotta be the pick imo...if he's gone then one of those edge pass rushers.

which is what kiper said.. he said jets may take edge rusher over scherff is mariota gone..

 

kiper doesnt have us w/WR since he has cooper gone and us passing on white,,must feel w/marshall signing, its isnt our highest priority to putting winning team on field in 2015..who the hell knows, a crapshoot, lol

[SouthernJet]

  

He explains it better in this one:

You can always sign a good/great guard in free agency. The other positions the Jets will be looking at there as legitimate top six selections will be WR, pass rusher, and potentially QB. You don't take a guard/RT over those positions. The only OL that should go that high is a franchise LT.

actually there was a bit on NFL Network saying game has changed and LT's not primo OL spot anymore..

[SouthernJet]

actually there was a bit on NFL Network saying game has changed and LT's not primo OL spot anymore..

Ultimately, more teams are utilizing precision passing attacks that require quarterbacks to get rid of the ball much faster than ever before. With clubs using variations of four-receiver and/or two-tight end sets, quarterbacks don't necessarily need their linemen to hold their blocks as long. Increasingly, teams are devoting more resources at guard to keep the quarterback from getting rushed quickly up the middle.

"The pass rush is more about straight lines now," New York Jets coach Rex Ryan said. "In the past, you would loop an end inside, take a longer route, to confuse the blocking scheme, but you don't have time for that now. It's get there and get there fast."

Ryan's approach is a great example. Many of his best pass-rush schemes are "overloads," where he may only bring three or four rushers, but they all come from the same side of the offensive formation.

The Patriots are a great example of how protection is now focused on the middle of the line rather than the classic "blindside" protection led by the left tackle. New England's best offensive lineman is Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins, who teamed with veteran Brian Waters on the inside. New England suffered most on offense last season when it was forced to replace injured center Dan Koppen. Tuck indicated there's an obvious reason for that.

"The time we kept  Brady in the pocket and didn't allow him to step up, that's when we had the most success against him," Tuck said. "Now, that's any quarterback, but it's especially [true of] Brady. All he needs is one step. Not even one step, just be able to plant that front foot and deliver and he's a different quarterback.

 

"You can rush him off the edges all you want and he'll slide and step forward away from that. You have to have forward pressure in his face."

Likewise, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has benefitted in recent years from the play of guards Jhari Evans and Carl Nicks. The interesting question for Brees, whenever he signs a new contract, is what impact the loss of Nicks to free agency will have. The Saints signed veteran Ben Grubbs to replace him.

The bottom line: The premium that used to be paid for a left tackle is no longer the case. When the Minnesota Vikings took left tackle Matt Kalil with the No. 4 overall pick this year, many executives understood the logic but questioned the importance.

[New York Mick]

I think Scherff is going to be a stud but I'd rather them trade down and get him or draft White in that situation.

[jgb]

Trade down with Browns for both firsts.  Take Scherff and Mariota.  BOOM!

 

 

Um... Dispel?  That is exactly what his cited examples were saying.

 

So all it takes is one example of a bust at a position in top 10 to say one should never draft X position in top 10. That's interesting. I guess teams should only draft kickers, gunners and punters in top 10 since there has never been a top 10 bust for those positions.

 

Edit: oh wait I see, ya I said that backwards. More coffee needed.

[jgb]

  

He explains it better in this one:

You can always sign a good/great guard in free agency. The other positions the Jets will be looking at there as legitimate top six selections will be WR, pass rusher, and potentially QB. You don't take a guard/RT over those positions. The only OL that should go that high is a franchise LT.

 

That is a better argument then bringing up Tony Mandarich as proof that one shouldn't draft OL in top 10, IMHO.

[slats]

I think he is saying maybe there have been Guards drafted in Top10 that succeeded 

 

but dropping to 9 and getting picks/sherff would be best

 

new GM, no one knows, since he never ran his own draft before,,we will find out

Probably not many, though, being that so few get drafted in the top ten. You had Warmack and Cooper two years ago, and those teams would probably like their picks back.

You'd have to go back to '97 to find another guard taken in the top ten in Chris Naeole. Then you'd have to go back to '86 when John Rienstra was taken #9. A couple guards went top ten in '82 & '83, and you'd have to go all the way back to 1975 to find a guard taken higher than #7 overall.

It would be a bad pick. Poor value. Especially with the other players who will be on the board.

[#27TheDominator]

So all it takes is one example of a bust at a position in top 10 to say one should never draft X position in top 10. That's interesting. I guess teams should only draft kickers, gunners and punters in top 10 since there has never been a top 10 bust for those positions.

 

No.  His point was guards are a poor top 10 choice AND they also bust.  In all honesty, I think it has been 30+ years since a G was taken any higher than Cooper, so you kicker, gunner, punter argument is one thing you have in favor of picking a guard there.

 

EDIT:  Deal with Slats.  He is covering it and has the facts down.  I don't really have a dog in this fight.  I was just confused by your initial post.  I understand it now and it doesn't much matter.

[jgb]

No.  His point was guards are a poor top 10 choice AND they also bust.  In all honesty, I think it has been 30+ years since a G was taken any higher than Cooper, so you kicker, gunner, punter argument is one thing you have in favor of picking a guard there.

 

k

[Beerfish]

That is a better argument then bringing up Tony Mandarich as proof that one shouldn't draft OL in top 10, IMHO.

The examples of mandrich and the others are simply counters to the people wanting to avoid WR and olb because they are bigger bust risks and oline is 'safer'.

[Shockwave]

Where is the 

 

"Jonathon Cooper is the next Hutchinson"

"Decastro is the next Hutchinson"

"Womack is the next Hutchinson"

 

That was all the reason  to draft these guys in the teens. Teams drafted those players wayy to high and they all look like terrible picks right now. 

 

No way is Scherff as good as those players as a prospect, and the idea of taking him in the top 6 as a guard is just ridiculous. 

[SouthernJet]

Probably not many, though, being that so few get drafted in the top ten. You had Warmack and Cooper two years ago, and those teams would probably like their picks back.

You'd have to go back to '97 to find another guard taken in the top ten in Chris Naeole. Then you'd have to go back to '86 when John Rienstra was taken #9. A couple guards went top ten in '82 & '83, and you'd have to go all the way back to 1975 to find a guard taken higher than #7 overall.

It would be a bad pick. Poor value. Especially with the other players who will be on the board.

history will tell as usual

[OuttaSightPF]

Shane Rays the pick in that scenario. All though I love me some Schreff LOL

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SouthernJet]

 

Ultimately, more teams are utilizing precision passing attacks that require quarterbacks to get rid of the ball much faster than ever before. With clubs using variations of four-receiver and/or two-tight end sets, quarterbacks don't necessarily need their linemen to hold their blocks as long. Increasingly, teams are devoting more resources at guard to keep the quarterback from getting rushed quickly up the middle.

"The pass rush is more about straight lines now," New York Jets coach Rex Ryan said. "In the past, you would loop an end inside, take a longer route, to confuse the blocking scheme, but you don't have time for that now. It's get there and get there fast."

Ryan's approach is a great example. Many of his best pass-rush schemes are "overloads," where he may only bring three or four rushers, but they all come from the same side of the offensive formation.

The Patriots are a great example of how protection is now focused on the middle of the line rather than the classic "blindside" protection led by the left tackle. New England's best offensive lineman is Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins, who teamed with veteran Brian Waters on the inside. New England suffered most on offense last season when it was forced to replace injured center Dan Koppen. Tuck indicated there's an obvious reason for that.

"The time we kept  Brady in the pocket and didn't allow him to step up, that's when we had the most success against him," Tuck said. "Now, that's any quarterback, but it's especially [true of] Brady. All he needs is one step. Not even one step, just be able to plant that front foot and deliver and he's a different quarterback.

 

"You can rush him off the edges all you want and he'll slide and step forward away from that. You have to have forward pressure in his face."

Likewise, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has benefitted in recent years from the play of guards Jhari Evans and Carl Nicks. The interesting question for Brees, whenever he signs a new contract, is what impact the loss of Nicks to free agency will have. The Saints signed veteran Ben Grubbs to replace him.

The bottom line: The premium that used to be paid for a left tackle is no longer the case. When the Minnesota Vikings took left tackle Matt Kalil with the No. 4 overall pick this year, many executives understood the logic but questioned the importance.

 

very interesting take on 'new NFL and guards vs tackles'

[Sperm Edwards]

one could point to a million examples of "sure fire" picks at every position that busted. your cited examples hardly dispel the notion that guards are poor top 10 selections.

 

OK how about this:

 

Name all the superbowl winners, superbowl losers, championship game winners, and championship game losers in the last quarter century who drafted a guard with a top 10 pick (borderline top 5 at that).

[JetsFanInDenver]

First of all Scherff sounds like Shrek's German cousin.

 

But a Guard at #6 while you have a Kevin White still on the board per this mock is head scratching choice. It just sounds like Kiper is trying to create some pre-draft controversy for more eyeballs. Even he is too smart to make that pick.

[Ghost]

I don't mind the player, I mind where we pick him. Picking a guard at 6 is absolutely ridiculous. We cannot pass up on Kevin White for a guard at 6.

[jgb]

OK how about this:

 

Name all the superbowl winners, superbowl losers, championship game winners, and championship game losers in the last quarter century who drafted a guard with a top 10 pick (borderline top 5 at that).

 

Name me this--how many teams that finished last place in their division have done the same?