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Welcome Bryce Petty!!


JetBlue

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Kid went to the movies instead of a team meeting in San Diego. Sign him up for Mensa. Also, he doesn't even complete 58% of his passes. Geno still sucks.

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lol.  Geno ain't playing this year and will get cut. 

 

We didn't just bring in an expensive free agent class and draft the best player in the whole draft at a non-need position just so we can send Geno out there and hope he figures out what the game of football is actually about.  It'd be like handing a ferrari to a 12 year old.

 

lol, you can wish for that all you want but it ain't happening.  He may not win the job but he will be on the team.  Right now you do realize he is number 1 on the depth charts heading into camp, right?  

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It's funny, that you think Petty can learn from Gailey and Geno can't? Last year he didn't have a true number 1; now he has a #1, a 2 and a bonafide deep threat.   I personally am rooting for Geno but if Fitz outplays him I have no problem with that.  

Of course you don't. its your out.  You defend Geno nail and tooth and yet leave yourself room to slither out of your little hole like the worm you are when Fitz becomes the starter.  You are making many friends here. I can see why you are so fond of Geno, birds of a feather flock together.  Keep talking out of the side of your mouth, you'll develop Bell's Palsy by the time camp opens.   

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Play nice kids,,,,

all Jets fans should hope that Geno finally steps up this year. If he does then the last two years were not wasted and our franchise QB is on the team already. If not we will all have to suffer for it. One or two years of Fitz and then we will have to begin all over again with Petty. There certainly no guarantees that he will be any better then Geno and if he isn't then 5 years from now we could be in the se boat.

I really believe that Chan Gailey will help Geno tremendously. He will put Geno in an offense that he is comfortable in. Yet, this is Geno's last hurrah, if he doesn't get it this year he will become an average backup for the rest of his career.

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It's funny, that you think Petty can learn from Gailey and Geno can't? Last year he didn't have a true number 1; now he has a #1, a 2 and a bonafide deep threat.   I personally am rooting for Geno but if Fitz outplays him I have no problem with that.  

 

I think Geno can learn too, and I'm excited to see what Chan can do with our offense.  When Geno is good, he's good.  When he's bad, he's bad. Hopefully Chan can get some (good) consistency out of him.

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Petty's pick helps expedite that process, another positive to this selection.  New regimes always mean new QB's.  We now have 2 of them, Fitz and Petty. 

 

Geno will start the year as Fitzmagic's backup and be phased out of snaps in practice as Petty progresses.  He will then be safely cut after the season is over, when we pick up another QB or 2.  Hopefully Brees/Rivers/1st round stud.

Your calling this journeyman Fitzmagic - I guess your TV was broken last year . Throw out the Titans game and tell me you believe he's a capable starting QB. He's here to mentor Geno in Chan's system and to fill in if Geno gets injured. 

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Play nice kids,,,,

all Jets fans should hope that Geno finally steps up this year. If he does then the last two years were not wasted and our franchise QB is on the team already. If not we will all have to suffer for it. One or two years of Fitz and then we will have to begin all over again with Petty. There certainly no guarantees that he will be any better then Geno and if he isn't then 5 years from now we could be in the se boat.

I really believe that Chan Gailey will help Geno tremendously. He will put Geno in an offense that he is comfortable in. Yet, this is Geno's last hurrah, if he doesn't get it this year he will become an average backup for the rest of his career.

 

You would think.... 

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Don't be a butt hurt bitch just because we don't all share your point of view.

No I'm cool. Just don't know why you think he is dumber than you or anybody else for that matter.  By the way whats up with the personal attacks?  Did I call you out of your name? 

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lol, you can wish for that all you want but it ain't happening.  He may not win the job but he will be on the team.  Right now you do realize he is number 1 on the depth charts heading into camp, right?  

 

I said he'd get cut NEXT offseason not this one.

 

And he's only # 1 on the depth chart (in May no less) because Fitzpatrick is coming back from an injury.  Get ready for the Fitzmagic era to officially begin sometime in June/July.

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Your calling this journeyman Fitzmagic - I guess your TV was broken last year . Throw out the Titans game and tell me you believe he's a capable starting QB. He's here to mentor Geno in Chan's system and to fill in if Geno gets injured. 

 

Throw out the Titans game and he still had 11 TD's, 8 INT's, 5 fumbles (13 total turnovers).  Throw out Geno's game against Miami (only fair, right?  Miami's heart wasn't in that game at all) and he's sitting at 10 TD's, 13 INT's, with 8 fumbles (21 total turnovers).

 

And we should be so glad to have a QB with the kind of upside where he can have a 6-TD game.  Geno has nowhere close to that kind of upside.  If he can have a 6-TD game with a 33-year old Andre Johnson (who only caught 1 of them; 2 went to DeAndre Hopkins and one apiece went to Ryan Griffin and JJ Watt), imagine how he'll do with Decker, Marshall, Amaro, Kerley and now Devin Smith?

 

"Journeyman" is a lot better than "F*cking terrible."  Fitzmagic's role is very clear.  He's a stop-gap starter before we find a real QB in 2016 (or hope that Petty turns into one).  And there's nothing wrong with that. 

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Don't be a butt hurt bitch just because we don't all share your point of view.

 

Faba :Stop right now with this back and forth- ignore someone if you can not discuss it the right way

JetBlue: Already done. The amount of hatred and venom is just silly. 

 

The lil balls on this dude is downright pathetic. Here he goes again talking on both sides of his mouth again.  This guy would buy a $110 steak dinner while you get a burger and expect you to split the bill.  Faba just told him to cut it and now calls me venomous after numerous insults towards me for not agreeing with his delusional obsession of Geno. Unbelievable.   

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Think Winston is the best QB in this draft right now. His bad decisions may keep him from achieving that. After Winston I think Mariota, and Petty are tied for the next best chance to be a franchise player. Mariota gets a lot more hype because of his running ability.

IMO, down the road, Petty will be the best QB in this draft and be the Jets starting QB in 2016. I don't want to see him anywhere near the field this year though

Petty starting in '16? Highly unlikely.

Just for some perspective. The 4th round QBs in '14 were Logan Thomas and Tom Savage.

The 2013 4ths were Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones.

And Petty is not an even bet with Mariota to be a franchise QB. Not even close in my opinion. Petty has talent... but many 4th rounders have had talent. Petty is a long shot, but worth a try. McElroy and Boyd were a waste, one had no arm and the other couldn't hit an elephant at 25 yards.

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Petty starting in '16? Highly unlikely.

Just for some perspective. The 4th round QBs in '14 were Logan Thomas and Tom Savage.

The 2013 4ths were Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones.

And Petty is not an even bet with Mariota to be a franchise QB. Not even close in my opinion. Petty has talent... but many 4th rounders have had talent. Petty is a long shot, but worth a try. McElroy and Boyd were a waste, one had no arm and the other couldn't hit an elephant at 25 yards.

 

I prefer to look at it like this:  Petty was given a late 2nd-3rd round grade.  As was Russell Wilson.  

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Petty starting in '16? Highly unlikely.

Just for some perspective. The 4th round QBs in '14 were Logan Thomas and Tom Savage.

The 2013 4ths were Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones.

And Petty is not an even bet with Mariota to be a franchise QB. Not even close in my opinion. Petty has talent... but many 4th rounders have had talent. Petty is a long shot, but worth a try. McElroy and Boyd were a waste, one had no arm and the other couldn't hit an elephant at 25 yards.

The 13 stat is an interesting bit of trivia, but unrelated.

 

The Mariota, Petty conclusion is your opinion.  I have seen both players on several occasions, and IMO their general talent level is about the same, with the same basic problem.  They haven't played in pro sets.

 

Mariota has great mobility.  Petty has more natural arm talent.  We'll see which of them picks up the pro system quicker.   if either do. 

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Sure. One fourth rounder never makes or breaks you. But bomb enough over a long enough period and it's definitely detrimental. Even Maccagnan said in his PC that a GM's most important responsibility is hitting on mid and late rounders.

I completely disagree with you on Petty, btw.  He's not a prospect with a known limitation; he hasn't failed at a necessary mental aspect of the game (i.e. a Devin Gardner or a Jevan Snead, who displayed poor decision making in his college games) and he doesn't have any real physical limitations that hold back guys like McElroy or McCarron (he has prototype size, a strong arm, fast enough, good release, etc.).  He's a guy who simply hasn't shown one way or the other that he can read a defense, take a snap from center, and work through his progressions - because he wasn't asked to do it in college.  And it's not like he wasn't asked to do it because Baylor coached around his limitations; he was limited by the system Baylor runs.

 

In other words, Petty's eventual outcome depends on how well he can develop skills needed for NFL success, and we have no college game experience that tells us one way or the other whether he's capable of doing that.  Which means that needs to be assessed based on other information that we as fans simply don't have access to - his interview/testing by the team's decision makers, reports from coaches and scouts, etc.  That the Jets took him high in the fourth round suggests that they have some level of confidence that he has serious potential to develop those skills; that they waited that long confirms they are under no illusion that he's a lock to do so.

 

In other words, this is a pure risk-reward. boom or bust pick.  If Petty develops his ability to read defenses and work through progressions to the level of even an average NFL starter, his physical gifts make him a potential top 10 QB in the league.  If he doesn't, he's completely useless except as a below average backup.  Given the importance of the QB position, the upside, and the lack of any indicators that he can't be coached up (based on work ethic and personality he seems like the type that will take to coaching if he's at all capable of learning it), I'm ok with the pick in that slot.

 

And that's particularly true given that unlike Geno - a QB who came out of college with a similar profile - there's essentially no chance Petty will be forced to start Day 1, before he's actually ready.  He wasn't taken with a premium pick, and he has 2 QBs ahead of him on the depth chart who have started in the NFL, one of whom at least has a fairly high floor (Fitzpatrick has shown the ability to be a 15-20 ranked starter in the league; sad to say that would be an upgrade over the last few years of NYJ QB play).  This isn't Geno Smith coming in with a premium pick (a high second rounder should be meaningfully contributing to his team by the early part of the season, and a QB can only do that by starting), competing against a bottom of the barrel starter (Sanchez) who the fan-base hates (again, having Fitz here changes the dynamic immeasurably).  Geno basically had to rebuild his mechanics and mentality (learning how to take snaps from center, read defenses etc.) while facing live bullets in regular season NFL games.  When he inevitably struggled, it impacted his confidence, and spiraled (Geno's mental makeup is a big problem; when something goes wrong, he sulks, and it leads to other errors - hence the horrific games like Buffalo).

 

Petty's going to sit, work, and soak up coaching without pressure to immediately translate it into on-field results.  That gives him a much better chance of turning into a top tier starter than you seem to be allowing for.

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I'll tell you what.....this is my same sentiment. But thank you for having the 'gaul' to state it.  It just seems to follow suit with Mac's moves and persona.  Smith is a lingering, putrid odor of the previous regime that has been symbolic of their ineptitude.  What stronger statement for Mac to make than rid this organization of this petulant wannabe. 

 

Gall.

 

Gaul would be having a cheese eating surrender monkey, and I don't see how that helps.

 

Or an Aiel, which I guess would.

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After watching some footage on Bryce it's clear he can make all the throws, really good arm strength and maintains an incredible amount of velocity on his ball when throwing off his back leg. What's even more clear is that this kid is nowhere near ready to lead a pro style offense in the nfl, but that doesn't mean he can't one day. Patience.

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I completely disagree with you on Petty, btw.  He's not a prospect with a known limitation; he hasn't failed at a necessary mental aspect of the game (i.e. a Devin Gardner or a Jevan Snead, who displayed poor decision making in his college games) and he doesn't have any real physical limitations that hold back guys like McElroy or McCarron (he has prototype size, a strong arm, fast enough, good release, etc.).  He's a guy who simply hasn't shown one way or the other that he can read a defense, take a snap from center, and work through his progressions - because he wasn't asked to do it in college.  And it's not like he wasn't asked to do it because Baylor coached around his limitations; he was limited by the system Baylor runs.

 

In other words, Petty's eventual outcome depends on how well he can develop skills needed for NFL success, and we have no college game experience that tells us one way or the other whether he's capable of doing that.  Which means that needs to be assessed based on other information that we as fans simply don't have access to - his interview/testing by the team's decision makers, reports from coaches and scouts, etc.  That the Jets took him high in the fourth round suggests that they have some level of confidence that he has serious potential to develop those skills; that they waited that long confirms they are under no illusion that he's a lock to do so.

 

In other words, this is a pure risk-reward. boom or bust pick.  If Petty develops his ability to read defenses and work through progressions to the level of even an average NFL starter, his physical gifts make him a potential top 10 QB in the league.  If he doesn't, he's completely useless except as a below average backup.  Given the importance of the QB position, the upside, and the lack of any indicators that he can't be coached up (based on work ethic and personality he seems like the type that will take to coaching if he's at all capable of learning it), I'm ok with the pick in that slot.

 

And that's particularly true given that unlike Geno - a QB who came out of college with a similar profile - there's essentially no chance Petty will be forced to start Day 1, before he's actually ready.  He wasn't taken with a premium pick, and he has 2 QBs ahead of him on the depth chart who have started in the NFL, one of whom at least has a fairly high floor (Fitzpatrick has shown the ability to be a 15-20 ranked starter in the league; sad to say that would be an upgrade over the last few years of NYJ QB play).  This isn't Geno Smith coming in with a premium pick (a high second rounder should be meaningfully contributing to his team by the early part of the season, and a QB can only do that by starting), competing against a bottom of the barrel starter (Sanchez) who the fan-base hates (again, having Fitz here changes the dynamic immeasurably).  Geno basically had to rebuild his mechanics and mentality (learning how to take snaps from center, read defenses etc.) while facing live bullets in regular season NFL games.  When he inevitably struggled, it impacted his confidence, and spiraled (Geno's mental makeup is a big problem; when something goes wrong, he sulks, and it leads to other errors - hence the horrific games like Buffalo).

 

Petty's going to sit, work, and soak up coaching without pressure to immediately translate it into on-field results.  That gives him a much better chance of turning into a top tier starter than you seem to be allowing for.

 

That's all fine. My point was and always has been that the odds of finding a prospect that develops into a starter in the NFL after the 3rd round are astronomically bad. The mid-late round developmental prospect is a myth. It's not something that happens often enough to justify that it's an actual thing. The results say it isn't. There's a reason these guys drop.

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Petty starting in '16? Highly unlikely.

Just for some perspective. The 4th round QBs in '14 were Logan Thomas and Tom Savage.

The 2013 4ths were Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones.

And Petty is not an even bet with Mariota to be a franchise QB. Not even close in my opinion. Petty has talent... but many 4th rounders have had talent. Petty is a long shot, but worth a try. McElroy and Boyd were a waste, one had no arm and the other couldn't hit an elephant at 25 yards.

 

So let's take a look at the negatives in the scouting report on those 4th rounders (these are from Walter Football except Jones, who didn't have the same type of profile there):

 

Thomas: Inaccurate, poor ball placement, poor decision-making ...

 

Savage: Lack of commitment/intangibles, needs to improve progressions, immobile, inconsistent, needs to improve accuracy and footwork ...

 

Barkley: Poor arm strength, lacks mobility, may not have NFL accuracy ...

 

Nassib: Throwing motion, may not have NFL accuracy, poor size, not great arm strength ...

 

Wilson: Arm strength, decision making, can't make all the throws

 

Jones: Gets rattled under pressure, poor downfield accuracy, can't make pre-snap adjustments

 

Of all those guys, Savage and Jones are the only ones with potentially "correctable" flaws; players who demonstrated poor decision making in college (Thomas, Wilson) are generally not accurate QBs for NFL windows (Barkley, Nassib), or who lack NFL arm strength (Nassib, Barkley, Wilson) aren't likely to overcome those flaws through coaching.

 

Now how about Petty?  He also doesn't have a Walter Football scouting profile, so let's use the NFL profile we used for Landry.  Here's his total "Weaknesses" section:

 

 

Scouts concerned he could be product of Baylor's one-read system. Has tendency to spray the ball against zone coverage on intermediate routes. Can extend plays but won't make many plays downfield once he extends. Mistakes happen when forced to come off of first read. Struggles when defenders are near his feet. Yards per attempt declined in 2014 and screens were a much higher percentage of his passes. Struggles to pull himself from the doldrums when having a poor game. Nose of the ball dives when he doesn't drive throws with his lower body. Must learn to read defenses and get through his progressions when he joins the NFL.

 

Basically, it's all about the one-read system he was in.  Does that mean he can definitely learn to be a pro-style QB?  No, of course not.  But it does mean that his major flaw is one that is potentially correctable with good coaching and experience.  That's a big difference from the typical 4th round QB, and the reason I'm excited about this pick.

 

(BTW, in synagogue on Shabbos afternoon, not knowing anything about who the Jets had taken Friday or Saturday, I got third hand word that the Jets had taken Brett Hundley, I assumed in the second or third round, and I was pretty damn pissed at the possibility.  And on balance, I'd rather they have drafted Harold than traded down in the third. So it's not like I'm a "everything the Jets do is awesome!" type of guy.  I just like the Petty pick given the risk-reward).

 

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That's all fine. My point was and always has been that the odds of finding a prospect that develops into a starter in the NFL after the 3rd round are astronomically bad. The mid-late round developmental prospect is a myth. It's not something that happens often enough to justify that it's an actual thing. The results say it isn't. There's a reason these guys drop.

 

Sure.  But the real question (to me, anyway, and what do I know?) is "what is the reason"?

 

Is it a physical limitation (i.e. lacks height, poor arm strength, pocket statue, generally inaccurate)?  Those aren't likely to go away when you go up a level in competition, which means I don't want you as my "developmental" QB.  (Though I'm quite happy with you as my "competent backup" if your limitation is arm strength)

 

Is it a mental limitation that has been demonstrated in college games (poor decision making, inability to work through progressions in a system that demands it, etc.)?  Same thing; if you couldn't do it in college, there's no reason to think you'll figure it out in the pros.

 

Or is it an unknown - you have the physical tools, but haven't been asked to perform some of the key mental aspects of QB play (reading defenses, adjusting at the line, running a huddle, etc.) because of the college system?  I'd bet those guys are the ones who have the highest success rate as developmental guys.  That's where you get your Tony Romos (small school, needed to develop reading defenses) or Matt Cassels (no college tape or game experience to validate his tools).

 

Since Petty falls in that last bucket, and the bulk of the "4th round or later" QBs fall in one of the first two buckets, I don't think the "8/130" success rate (or whatever it was) is really the relevant one to look at in evaluating the risk/reward

 

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Sure.  But the real question (to me, anyway, and what do I know?) is "what is the reason"?

 

Is it a physical limitation (i.e. lacks height, poor arm strength, pocket statue, generally inaccurate)?  Those aren't likely to go away when you go up a level in competition, which means I don't want you as my "developmental" QB.  (Though I'm quite happy with you as my "competent backup" if your limitation is arm strength)

 

Is it a mental limitation that has been demonstrated in college games (poor decision making, inability to work through progressions in a system that demands it, etc.)?  Same thing; if you couldn't do it in college, there's no reason to think you'll figure it out in the pros.

 

Or is it an unknown - you have the physical tools, but haven't been asked to perform some of the key mental aspects of QB play (reading defenses, adjusting at the line, running a huddle, etc.) because of the college system?  I'd bet those guys are the ones who have the highest success rate as developmental guys.  That's where you get your Tony Romos (small school, needed to develop reading defenses) or Matt Cassels (no college tape or game experience to validate his tools).

 

Since Petty falls in that last bucket, and the bulk of the "4th round or later" QBs fall in one of the first two buckets, I don't think the "8/130" success rate (or whatever it was) is really the relevant one to look at in evaluating the risk/reward

 

I don't really see the need to try to talk ourselves into Petty. DYAR and DVOA are far from perfect, but they are a gazillion more times reliable than narratives. The numbers are what they are. Why bother with any of this until sh*t happens?

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I don't really see the need to try to talk ourselves into Petty. DYAR and DVOA are far from perfect, but they are a gazillion more times reliable than narratives. The numbers are what they are. Why bother with any of this until sh*t happens?

That would be a sensible argument if someone was drafting Petty based on his college numbers. But that's not what's happening - he's being drafted for his tools and traits. A qb like that is much more scout-analysis dependent than number-analysis dependent. QBASE, DVOA & DYAR are important tools for understanding statistics, but they aren't the only elements that need consideration, and the pendulum can swing too far in the direction of statistical analysis as easily as it can swing too far in the direction of scouting
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I don't really see the need to try to talk ourselves into Petty. DYAR and DVOA are far from perfect, but they are a gazillion more times reliable than narratives. The numbers are what they are. Why bother with any of this until sh*t happens?

 

We've tried to talk ourselves into Chad Pennington, Quincy Carter, Brooks Bollinger, Kellen Clemens, Mark Sanchez, Brett Ratliff, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms and Geno Smith.  Do you really expect that we won't discuss Bryce Petty for the next several years?   You can never quell discussion about a Jet QB.  Hell, this thread is 12 pages long already.

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That would be a sensible argument if someone was drafting Petty based on his college numbers. But that's not what's happening - he's being drafted for his tools and traits. A qb like that is much more scout-analysis dependent than number-analysis dependent. QBASE, DVOA & DYAR are important tools for understanding statistics, but they aren't the only elements that need consideration, and the pendulum can swing too far in the direction of statistical analysis as easily as it can swing too far in the direction of scouting

I'm not talking about Petty's numbers, I'm talking about the 140 other guys. I get wanting to be optimistic, but assuming he's different than the rest when the sample is this big over this long a period of time isn't logical at all.

You like Petty. Great. But these are what the results are.

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I'm not talking about Petty's numbers, I'm talking about the 140 other guys. I get wanting to be optimistic, but assuming he's different than the rest when the sample is this big over this long a period of time isn't logical at all.

You like Petty. Great. But these are what the results are.

 

There's a difference between "assuming he's different" (which would be asinine) and "being willing to risk a 4th round pick on the chance that he's different" (which is a completely different calculus).

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