LIJetsFan Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Seems like Football Outsider doesn't like Petty much. I hope they're wrong of course. I thought the Jets killed the draft but I did wanted Grayson in the third. Does anyone know what his QBASE is? http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/5/5/8557615/bryce-petty-and-qbase Every year the statistical website, Football Outsiders, looks at quarterback prospects before the Draft. They present a formula which is tweaked annually to try and project how well quarterbacks will adapt to the NFL. This year, they really revamped it, and came up with a new name, QBASE. I thought it was worth taking a look at what they had to say about Bryce Petty, the Jets' fourth round pick. You can click here for a thorough explanation of the formula. For a summary, they base this formula on three pieces of criteria. 1. College performance, adjusted for opposition and teammates: The strongest predictor of NFL success. To account for a changing college game, we look across three aspects of performance: completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and team passing efficiency from Football Outsiders' S&P ratings. The best prospects succeed across all three of these areas, so we take the minimum performance across the three areas. A quarterback who has an inflated completion percentage because of a screen-heavy offense (e.g., Brandon Weeden) will score lower in QBASE due to his lower adjusted yards per attempt. 2. College experience, adjusted for quality: Our previous measure of total games started has been replaced with a measure that counts seasons with at least 150 attempts, with adjustments to count poor seasons less than good ones. Experience counts, but successful experience counts more. This variable can capture the better quality of players who get more starts and more opportunities to improve, as well as the underappreciated idea that players who succeed in a smaller sample may not live up to that short-term success. Mark Sanchez could have gotten lucky to do so well in his one season as a starter. Four-year starter Russell Wilson? Not so much. 3. Projected draft slot: Based in large part on scouts' ratings of quarterbacks' intangibles, accuracy, and other attributes for recent years, the draft slot accounts for how scouting information predicts players' NFL success. We used mock drafts to project draft slot for this year's quarterbacks. They offer a look at how various Draft prospects hold up against their rankings through the years. Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Russell Wilson are at the top. Trent Edwards, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and Josh McCown are at the bottom. How does Petty stack up? Before we get there, I'd like to address two complaints people usually have about projections like this. Football Outsiders didn't put this list together with any bias against the Jets. This was published before the Draft. This is only a projection. Every player is different. Some players end up way better than their projection. Others end up way worse. This projection says there is over a 60% chance Jameis Winston will be a bust purely based on his on field ability. My guess is this particular one is high. These projections should be taken as a ballpark. With that said, here is how Petty rates. Click the link above for a thorough explanation and read out of their ratings for the entire class. Bryce Petty Mean Projection (Years 3-5 of career): -292 DYAR Odds: Bust: 80.2% Adequate Starter: 13.7% Upper Tier: 5.2% Elite: 0.9% Petty projects to be substantially worse than replacement level, in large part because QBASE questions the opposition that he faced in 2014. Petty accumulated his college stats against the 70th-toughest slate of opposing defenses. His 6.1 percent chance of developing into an upper-tier quarterback makes Petty unworthy of a third-round selection. edit: found it. Grayson's score is -427 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJetsFan Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 Are you talking to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Thought he was hot garbage all year long and still haven't changed my mind. He has obvious tools, maybe with a year or two of holding a clipboard he can be developed. Crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 How was Romo's competition level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Thought he was hot garbage all year long and still haven't changed my mind. He has obvious tools, maybe with a year or two of holding a clipboard he can be developed. Crazier things have happened. He'll never make it. These guys never do. I cant hate the pick. I get it. You got to take swings but this dude will never be a starter. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 He'll never make it. These guys never do. I cant hate the pick. I get it. You got to take swings but this dude will never be a starter. Ever. Who are "these dudes"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I saw where Baylor is preseason top 5 despite losing Petty. That probably says something about what college football experts think of Petty's influence on the team....and the residual level of talent on their roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 My issue with Petty is that we are currently going through the "development" of another QB from a spread offense who put up far superior college numbers to Petty and it isn't going as well as we had hoped when he was drafted. What makes me think that Petty does any better? Geno was more accurate in college and a better athlete and is still not an average level NFL QB entering year 3. To me, the Petty pick is just a nod to taking someone and hoping they bust out and exceed expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Who are "these dudes"? Are we not talking about Bryce Petty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I saw where Baylor is preseason top 5 despite losing Petty. That probably says something about what college football experts think of Petty's influence on the team....and the residual level of talent on their roster. Oregon and FSU are also preseason top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Seems like Football Outsider doesn't like Petty much. I hope they're wrong of course. I thought the Jets killed the draft but I did wanted Grayson in the third. Does anyone know what his QBASE is? http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/5/5/8557615/bryce-petty-and-qbase Every year the statistical website, Football Outsiders, looks at quarterback prospects before the Draft. They present a formula which is tweaked annually to try and project how well quarterbacks will adapt to the NFL. This year, they really revamped it, and came up with a new name, QBASE. I thought it was worth taking a look at what they had to say about Bryce Petty, the Jets' fourth round pick. You can click here for a thorough explanation of the formula. For a summary, they base this formula on three pieces of criteria. They offer a look at how various Draft prospects hold up against their rankings through the years. Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Russell Wilson are at the top. Trent Edwards, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and Josh McCown are at the bottom. How does Petty stack up? Before we get there, I'd like to address two complaints people usually have about projections like this. Football Outsiders didn't put this list together with any bias against the Jets. This was published before the Draft. This is only a projection. Every player is different. Some players end up way better than their projection. Others end up way worse. This projection says there is over a 60% chance Jameis Winston will be a bust purely based on his on field ability. My guess is this particular one is high. These projections should be taken as a ballpark. With that said, here is how Petty rates. Click the link above for a thorough explanation and read out of their ratings for the entire class.This is the same website that compare Geno Smith to Russell Wilson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Hey! How about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Hey! How about that. this chicken came before that egg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 this chicken came before that egg 6.1 percent chance. Whoulda thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoop24 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 These kinds stats are too deep for me. This is Still Football, a game played on the Field. if people could predict players so easy there wouldn't be so many draft bust . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Jet Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 how is brady rated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Seems like Football Outsider doesn't like Petty much. I hope they're wrong of course. I thought the Jets killed the draft but I did wanted Grayson in the third. Does anyone know what his QBASE is? http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/5/5/8557615/bryce-petty-and-qbase Every year the statistical website, Football Outsiders, looks at quarterback prospects before the Draft. They present a formula which is tweaked annually to try and project how well quarterbacks will adapt to the NFL. This year, they really revamped it, and came up with a new name, QBASE. I thought it was worth taking a look at what they had to say about Bryce Petty, the Jets' fourth round pick. You can click here for a thorough explanation of the formula. For a summary, they base this formula on three pieces of criteria. They offer a look at how various Draft prospects hold up against their rankings through the years. Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Russell Wilson are at the top. Trent Edwards, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and Josh McCown are at the bottom. How does Petty stack up? Before we get there, I'd like to address two complaints people usually have about projections like this. Football Outsiders didn't put this list together with any bias against the Jets. This was published before the Draft. This is only a projection. Every player is different. Some players end up way better than their projection. Others end up way worse. This projection says there is over a 60% chance Jameis Winston will be a bust purely based on his on field ability. My guess is this particular one is high. These projections should be taken as a ballpark. With that said, here is how Petty rates. Click the link above for a thorough explanation and read out of their ratings for the entire class. Someone tell them to plug in his 2013 season instead of his 2014 season when he was healthy, and played tougher opponents, I'd like to see the difference. Would be nice to see if anything changes. I would like to also see the difference it would make for Winston from 2013, and 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obrien2Toon Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Thought he was hot garbage all year long and still haven't changed my mind. He has obvious tools, maybe with a year or two of holding a clipboard he can be developed. Crazier things have happened.My thoughts exactly. But the 4th round is exactly where you take a shot on a guy with his tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obrien2Toon Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 These kinds stats are too deep for me. This is Still Football, a game played on the Field. if people could predict players so easy there wouldn't be so many draft bust .These things only work for baseball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obrien2Toon Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 To me, the Petty pick is just a nod to taking someone and hoping they bust out and exceed expectations.Yep and this is what we should continue to do every 2 to 3 years until we find the right one or are bad enough to get a top 3 pick and get the sure thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RSJ Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I saw where Baylor is preseason top 5 despite losing Petty. That probably says something about what college football experts think of Petty's influence on the team....and the residual level of talent on their roster. The 2000 Michigan team lost only one more game than the 1999 team and put up better offensive stats despite missing Tom Brady. None of this has to do with how hard Brady worked after getting drafted and no stat will even predict that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickJetFan Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Seems like Football Outsider doesn't like Petty much. I hope they're wrong of course. I thought the Jets killed the draft but I did wanted Grayson in the third. Does anyone know what his QBASE is? http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/5/5/8557615/bryce-petty-and-qbase Every year the statistical website, Football Outsiders, looks at quarterback prospects before the Draft. They present a formula which is tweaked annually to try and project how well quarterbacks will adapt to the NFL. This year, they really revamped it, and came up with a new name, QBASE. I thought it was worth taking a look at what they had to say about Bryce Petty, the Jets' fourth round pick. You can click here for a thorough explanation of the formula. For a summary, they base this formula on three pieces of criteria. 1. College performance, adjusted for opposition and teammates: The strongest predictor of NFL success. To account for a changing college game, we look across three aspects of performance: completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and team passing efficiency from Football Outsiders' S&P ratings. The best prospects succeed across all three of these areas, so we take the minimum performance across the three areas. A quarterback who has an inflated completion percentage because of a screen-heavy offense (e.g., Brandon Weeden) will score lower in QBASE due to his lower adjusted yards per attempt. 2. College experience, adjusted for quality: Our previous measure of total games started has been replaced with a measure that counts seasons with at least 150 attempts, with adjustments to count poor seasons less than good ones. Experience counts, but successful experience counts more. This variable can capture the better quality of players who get more starts and more opportunities to improve, as well as the underappreciated idea that players who succeed in a smaller sample may not live up to that short-term success. Mark Sanchez could have gotten lucky to do so well in his one season as a starter. Four-year starter Russell Wilson? Not so much. 3. Projected draft slot: Based in large part on scouts' ratings of quarterbacks' intangibles, accuracy, and other attributes for recent years, the draft slot accounts for how scouting information predicts players' NFL success. We used mock drafts to project draft slot for this year's quarterbacks. They offer a look at how various Draft prospects hold up against their rankings through the years. Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Russell Wilson are at the top. Trent Edwards, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, and Josh McCown are at the bottom. How does Petty stack up? Before we get there, I'd like to address two complaints people usually have about projections like this. Football Outsiders didn't put this list together with any bias against the Jets. This was published before the Draft. This is only a projection. Every player is different. Some players end up way better than their projection. Others end up way worse. This projection says there is over a 60% chance Jameis Winston will be a bust purely based on his on field ability. My guess is this particular one is high. These projections should be taken as a ballpark. With that said, here is how Petty rates. Click the link above for a thorough explanation and read out of their ratings for the entire class. Bryce Petty Mean Projection (Years 3-5 of career): -292 DYAR Odds: Bust: 80.2% Adequate Starter: 13.7% Upper Tier: 5.2% Elite: 0.9% Petty projects to be substantially worse than replacement level, in large part because QBASE questions the opposition that he faced in 2014. Petty accumulated his college stats against the 70th-toughest slate of opposing defenses. His 6.1 percent chance of developing into an upper-tier quarterback makes Petty unworthy of a third-round selection. edit: found it. Grayson's score is -427 http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/384/1579/1600/howto1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
win4ever Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Eh, not really surprised. Petty as the current product is going to be a bust, however, it remains to be seen how they develop him or the system around him. If we can install a more fast paced system with mostly shotgun snaps, his transition would be easier. He's pretty much a project at this point, but does have some tools like a good arm, size, and seems like an good clubhouse guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thshadow Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 If their predictions are accurate (and I'm sure as hell they're not), and there's a 6.1% chance he becomes an "upper tier" or "elite" QB and another 14% chance he's an adequate starter - isn't that a fine use of a 4th round pick? Do that for 5 years and you'd expect to get 1 QB who's better than any QB we've had for the longest friggin' time... Anyone with half a brain should know that his chances of becoming even adequate isn't good. But that's different than "he sucks" "why is he still on the team" "we should cut him". No one knows anything for sure right now - about him or pretty much any draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JETSfaninNE Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Someone tell them to plug in his 2013 season instead of his 2014 season when he was healthy, and played tougher opponents, I'd like to see the difference. Would be nice to see if anything changes. I would like to also see the difference it would make for Winston from 2013, and 2014. Bryce Petty Mean Projection (Years 3-5 of career): -292 DYAR Looks like they are counting his 2013 season here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Thought he was hot garbage all year long and still haven't changed my mind. He has obvious tools, maybe with a year or two of holding a clipboard he can be developed. Crazier things have happened. As a 4th round pick, even if he only develops into a backup that doesn't scare the fudge out of you, he's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComfortablyNumb Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Omg. John Beck was ahead of Andrew Luck in that metric. Junk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Don't understand the outrage. Petty is an average at best qb prospect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Omg. John Beck was ahead of Andrew Luck in that metric. Junk!!! Would take Glenn Beck over John Beck at qb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComfortablyNumb Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Don't understand the outrage. Petty is an average at best qb prospect Indeed. You may be right about that but not because this silly metric tells us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Indeed. You may be right about that but not because this silly metric tells us. Metrics are for unemployed 20 something's in the suburbs with bachelor degrees and internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Metrics are for unemployed 20 something's in the suburbs with bachelor degrees and internet prolly majored in french poetry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Bryce Petty Mean Projection (Years 3-5 of career): -292 DYAR Looks like they are counting his 2013 season here as well. I thought that ment his mean projection of years 3-5 in the NFL, he only played 2 years as a starter in College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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