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Bryce Petty and QBASE


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Metrics are for unemployed 20 something's in the suburbs with bachelor degrees and internet

And guys making lots of money playing daily fantasy sports. Wish they had that when I was a single 20 something loser, I'd be rich.

Instead it was poker on line, and I got robbed of a lot of money on black Monday.

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The 2000 Michigan team lost only one more game than the 1999 team and put up better offensive stats despite missing Tom Brady. None of this has to do with how hard Brady cheated after getting drafted and no stat will even predict that,

 

Fixed

 

im  just going to put this baseless prediction here now Bryce Petty looked terrible at the Senior Bowl, he's garbage he'll be lucky to be a backup. 

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Petty projects to be substantially worse than replacement level, in large part because QBASE questions the opposition that he faced in 2014. Petty accumulated his college stats against the 70th-toughest slate of opposing defenses. His 6.1 percent chance of developing into an upper-tier quarterback makes Petty unworthy of a third-round selection.
 
 
 

 

 

How highly ranked would those defenses be if they didn't suffer from the Baylor Effect? Almost every team Baylor plays gives up record numbers on defense. Even in losing efforts like the Cotton Bowl they make the opposing defense look uncharacteristically bad. The majority of those teams I guarantee would rank considerably higher defensively if you removed the Baylor game from their stats. Baylor scored over 40 points in all but 3 games last year and scored 60+ in four of the games, one of them being against TCU which is considered to be a strong defensive team. I think Petty can be a solid starter and couldn't ask for a better situation with Gailey coaching him.

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If their predictions are accurate (and I'm sure as hell they're not), and there's a 6.1% chance he becomes an "upper tier" or "elite" QB and another 14% chance he's an adequate starter - isn't that a fine use of a 4th round pick?  Do that for 5 years and you'd expect to get 1 QB who's better than any QB we've had for the longest friggin' time...

 

Anyone with half a brain should know that his chances of becoming even adequate isn't good.  But that's different than "he sucks" "why is he still on the team" "we should cut him".  No one knows anything for sure right now - about him or pretty much any draft pick.

 

This whole thing is stupid.  He has a 6.1% chance of becoming upper tier, and 14% he's an adequate starter.

 

Hmmm, what are the odds on anyone taken in the 4th round becoming upper tier?    What are the odds on someone in the 4th being an adequate starter?   Probably not that different than the numbers they gave. 

 

For a 5% chance, a 1 in 20 chance of getting an upper tier QB, I'd spend a 4th rounder every year, forever on that.  Every 20 years I luck into an upper tier QB, who can take care of my team for 15 years.

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Eh, not really surprised.  Petty as the current product is going to be a bust, however, it remains to be seen how they develop him or the system around him.  If we can install a more fast paced system with mostly shotgun snaps, his transition would be easier.  He's pretty much a project at this point, but does have some tools like a good arm, size, and seems like an good clubhouse guy.

Exactly the kind of system Gailey might employ to get the most out of Geno.

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These kinds stats are too deep for me. This is Still Football, a game played on the Field. if people could predict players so easy there wouldn't be so many draft bust .

Its complete over doing most of the time. I've seen people treat info from places like PFF as if it was the gospel. I dont like Petty, but my opinion has in no way been influenced by what these guys put out. 

 

I had someone disgree with a player that I liked and they presented me with some metrics from this site that was negatively criticizing the player, and they were presenting it to me as if "these metrics cant be argued". So after checking out the link I look further on the website and I came across a page where their metrics had Dawan Landry ranked as the 9th best Safety in 2014. All I could do is laugh. 

 

Metrics has its place, but like you said, it can get way too deep, especially when people use it as some sort of confirmation on a player, when watching the player shows something totally different. 

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It's too bad the games are played on football fields with actual players. Otherwise we could just forget about playing and let the computers pick the winners. Petty is a QB and he has a chance to be a good one. No doubt that RIGHT NOW, on talent alone he is better than Geno Smith.

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It's too bad the games are played on football fields with actual players. Otherwise we could just forget about playing and let the computers pick the winners. Petty is a QB and he has a chance to be a good one. No doubt that RIGHT NOW, on talent alone he is better than Geno Smith.

No he's not. Let the dude throw a pass in practice then in preseason first. He was a 4th round pick in a week QB class. He can certainly silence the critics (such as myself) but at this moment he is not better than any of the 3 other QB's on this roster right now. 

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And guys making lots of money playing daily fantasy sports. Wish they had that when I was a single 20 something loser, I'd be rich.

Instead it was poker on line, and I got robbed of a lot of money on black Monday.

Give me a break I saw that real sports episode I could crush those guys in fantasy baseball and football. Bunch of rich boys betting their trust funds on fan duel of course eventually they'd make money

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Give me a break I saw that real sports episode I could crush those guys in fantasy baseball and football. Bunch of rich boys betting their trust funds on fan duel of course eventually they'd make money

real fantasy sports players had to scrap and claw for every dollar of their entry fee

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Fixed

 

im  just going to put this baseless prediction here now Bryce Petty looked terrible at the Senior Bowl, he's garbage he'll be lucky to be a backup.

He was a 4th round pick so that's hardly a bold prediction. Btw the senior bowl is total horsesh*t. Christian Ponder was once the MVP, while other eventual greats struggled. I do like Pettys chances of being good. And I think if it weren't for the in vogue thing of finding the next Russell Wilson, he would have been picked ahead of Marriotta. Teams should be trying to give their entire team Adderall like the Seahawks instead of trying to find the next Tigers 2nd baseman.

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