Report: Goodell considers Brady's Deflategate role a serious violation

[Jet Fan RI]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25179489/report-goodell-considers-bradys-deflategate-role-a-serious-violation

 

 

In the days following the release of the Wells report, which concluded "that it is more probable than not that [Tom] Brady was at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities" of two Patriots employees who were deflating footballs, one of the big questions was whether commissioner Roger Goodell would go easy on any punishments for Brady and the Pats because of his close ties to owner Robert Kraft.

Not going to happen, according to the New York Daily News' Gary Myers, who writes that Goodell's decision is expected some time next week.

In conversations I've had with several key sources who always have a good sense of what goes on at 345 Park Ave., there is little doubt that Goodell considers Brady's role in DeflateGate a serious violation.

The NFL is convinced, according to sources, that connecting all the dots of the evidence supplied by Ted Wells leads to one conclusion: 

Brady cheated.

The Wells report provides enough information for Goodell to suspend Brady for his part in having footballs deflated as well as not cooperating with investigators, which the NFL views as conduct detrimental to the league.

How long Goodell would suspend Brady is another matter, with lengths ranging from a full season to a handful of games. Whatever the number, it's enough to have the Patriots worried; CSNNE.com's Mike Giardi reports that the Patriots are bracing for a suspension in the 6-8 games range.

And if that turns out to be the case, New England's schedule just got incredibly more difficult with the season opener against the Steelers followed by games with the Bills, Jaguars, Cowboys, Colts, Jets, Dolphins and Redskins -- all possibly coming with Brady on the sidelines in his civvies.

[indygirl4jets]

The fact that he lied and the text messages leads me to believe he will get at least 6 games. His arrogance during that initial press conference is what really stands out.

[Larz]

cheated

lied

didn't cooperate

 

 

that's 8 games

[CaliforniaJet]

Be careful Roger, Pats* fans might sue. 

[faba]

you know Brady will appeal so we can get this settled by the arbitrator

[PatsFanTX]

you know Brady will appeal so we can get this settled by the arbitrator

He'd be foolish to appeal.

[Larz]

you know Brady will appeal so we can get this settled by the arbitrator

 

after reading the report, I don't see how any punishment is reduced to less than 4 game suspension.  This isn't a court of law, and the threshold required to consider him guilty was met.

[RutgersJetFan]

He'd be foolish to appeal.

OYDGTLS

[slats]

cheated

lied

didn't cooperate

 

 

that's 8 games

That's what it should be, yes. The fact that the organization continues to deny any wrong-doing, using scientists who probably once worked claiming that cigarettes are good for you, should also be a factor. They've shown zero remorse for a very serious infraction.

[Jet Fan RI]

cheated

lied

didn't cooperate

 

 

that's 8 games

 

At least. I think it's a season. The main point here is that lots of folks still seem to think the Pats may just get a slap on the wrist or maybe a game or two suspension for Brady. If the article is accurate, it's hard to see how that could be the case.

[Larz]

[Larz]

That's what it should be, yes. The fact that the organization continues to deny any wrong-doing, using scientists who probably once worked claiming that cigarettes are good for you, should also be a factor. They've shown zero remorse for a very serious infraction.

 

 

At least. I think it's a season. The main point here is that lots of folks still seem to think the Pats may just get a slap on the wrist or maybe a game or two suspension for Brady. If the article is accurate, it's hard to see how that could be the case.

 

 

I suggest jets and pats* fans read the report.  brady completely mishandled this and got horrible advice or ignored good advice.  If he had admitted to it right away he probably plays in the SB, or he could a appeal any punishment and play

 

now he is a-rod, armstrong, just a liar and a cheat

[Dcat]

At least. I think it's a season. The main point here is that lots of folks still seem to think the Pats may just get a slap on the wrist or maybe a game or two suspension for Brady. If the article is accurate, it's hard to see how that cold be the case.

 

He tampered with the integrity of the game by altering the device used in the game, giving him, his RBs, TE, and WRs a distinct advantage over their opponents.  Probably did this every game for the last 4 years, since he, himself, lobbied the league to allow individual teams to "prepare" the game balls?  How many game's outcomes could this have affected.  One less fumble... a couple of extra completions...  all could be game changers.  

 

Then, he lied to the public about it and had the audacity to mock the league for even insinuating that he did anything wrong.

 

Then he lied to the league itself and its investigators.

 

Then he impeded the investigation by not turning over the evidence they requested.

 

Finally, he and his team threaten the media if they continue to press on.

 

I'd say he should be suspended for a full season.  Let him appeal it and they'll knock it down to 8 games.  

 

That Brady is a smug, arrogant lying douche.  His stats are padded as a result of his cheating and who knows how many games, including playoff games, for which his cheating altered the outcome.

 

As the saying goes.... "F-ck Tom"

[Larz]

jetsfanRI, you must have really enjoyed the scientific aspect of the report. 

 

it's damning.  100% damning

[Jet Fan RI]

I suggest jets and pats* fans read the report.  brady completely mishandled this and got horrible advice or ignored good advice.  If he had admitted to it right away he probably plays in the SB, or he could a appeal any punishment and play

 

now he is a-rod, armstrong, just a liar and a cheat

 

More than that. He also did not fully cooperate with the investigation, a violation that warrants punishment just for that.

[Jet Fan RI]

He tampered with the integrity of the game by altering the device used in the game, giving him, his RBs, TE, and WRs a distinct advantage over their opponents.  Probably did this every game for the last 4 years, since he, himself, lobbied the league to allow individual teams to "prepare" the game balls?  How many game's outcomes could this have affected.  One less fumble... a couple of extra completions...  all could be game changers.  

 

Then, he lied to the public about it and had the audacity to mock the league for even insinuating that he did anything wrong.

 

Then he lied to the league itself and its investigators.

 

Then he impeded the investigation by not turning over the evidence they requested.

 

Finally, he and his team threaten the media if they continue to press on.

 

I'd say he should be suspended for a full season.  Let him appeal it and they'll knock it down to 8 games.  

 

That Brady is a smug, arrogant lying douche.  His stats are padded as a result of his cheating and who knows how many games, including playoff games, for which his cheating altered the outcome.

 

As the saying goes.... "F-ck Tom"

 

Probably for the last 8 years, if the Sharp fumble rate analysis is accurate.

[Jet Fan RI]

jetsfanRI, you must have really enjoyed the scientific aspect of the report. 

 

it's damning.  100% damning

 

Oh yes. And I've commented on it several times already. But the board is so active that sometimes a post is like shouting from the middle of a stampede-easy to miss.

 

So let me just say once more that, as a professional physicist,  I read the appendices and found the work to be crisp and accurate, and yes, quite damning. And in my judgment, the work reported in those appendices will stand up to serious evaluation by those who are competent to render an opinion. Science is self-correcting though, so it's possible some competent individual will point out a flaw in the work at some point.

 

But I haven't seen any competent objections yet. 

[Vinny16]

We've seen how Goodell handles "serious" issues before (Ray Rice, Greg Hardy, Adrian Peterson), so you can't help but be extremely skeptical that he's going to slap the Pats* and Brady* on the wrist when he has already shown a willingness not to severely punish people who physically abused women and children.

[ylekram]

That's what it should be, yes. The fact that the organization continues to deny any wrong-doing, using scientists who probably once worked claiming that cigarettes are good for you, should also be a factor. They've shown zero remorse for a very serious infraction.

4 games for cheating

4 games for lying

4 games for impeding the investigation

4 games for being a douche bag, in general

sounds like it should be a full season to me

[ylekram]

We've seen how Goodell handles "serious" issues before (Ray Rice, Greg Hardy, Adrian Peterson), so you can't help but be extremely skeptical that he's going to slap the Pats* and Brady* on the wrist when he has already shown a willingness not to severely punish people who physically abused women and children.

these were all off-field issues,tho. brady's were 100% part of the league

[32EBoozer]

Oh yes. And I've commented on it several times already. But the board is so active that sometimes a post is like shouting from the middle of a stampede-easy to miss.

 

So let me just say once more that, as a professional physicist,  I read the appendices and found the work to be crisp and accurate, and yes, quite damning. And in my judgment, the work reported in those appendices will stand up to serious evaluation by those who are competent to render an opinion. Science is self-correcting though, so it's possible some competent individual will point out a flaw in the work at some point.

 

But I haven't seen any competent objections yet. 

You mean like this???

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/10/pressure-gauge-discrepancies-undermine-wells-report/

Pressure gauge discrepancies undermine Wells report

Posted by Mike Florio on May 10, 2015, 10:08 AM EDT

When the NFL dusted off the Ted Wells bat signal in January for an investigation regarding the question of whether the Patriots tampered with footballs used in the AFC championship game, it was believed that the raw measurements of air pressure inside the footballs taken at halftime would point clearly to tampering. Lost in the text messages between Larry and Curly and the question of whether Tom Brady was the Moe Howard periodically clunking their heads together to ensure that the footballs were suited to his preferences is the possibility that the raw measurements don’t point to tampering.

The erroneous report from ESPN that 10 of 12 balls were 2.0 PSI below the 12.5 PSI minimum cemented the early narrative that the amount of air missing from the footballs clearly suggests tampering. The actual numbers, standing alone, say otherwise.

It’s possible that the actual numbers suggest no tampering at all. Which could be the biggest problem with the 243-page report.

Here’s where we try (key word: try) to take something that’s pretty complicated and make it somewhat understandable.

First, the officials had two pressure gauges available — and those pressure gauges generated very different measurements.

One gauge had a Wilson logo on the back. The other didn’t. One had an obviously crooked needle. The other didn’t.

The gauge with the Wilson logo and the longer, crooked needle typically generated higher readings, in the range of 0.3 to 0.45 PSI.

The measurements taken at halftime of the AFC title game by the two available gauges demonstrated this reality.  Here’s the gap in PSI for each of the 11 Patriots footballs, based on the two gauges: (1) 0.3 PSI; (2) 0.35 PSI; (3) 0.35 PSI; (4) 0.3 PSI; (5) 0.35 PSI; (6) 0.35 PSI; (7) 0.45 PSI; (8) 0.45 PSI; (9) 0.4 PSI; (10) 0.4 PSI; and (11) 0.45 PSI.

Second, referee Walt Anderson doesn’t recall which gauge he used to measure PSI at the start of the game.

The absence of a documentation regarding the air pressure in the Patriots footballs prior to kickoff can be justified by Anderson’s clear recollection that he ensured each ball was set to 12.5 PSI. However, Anderson doesn’t clearly recall whether he used the gauge that generates the higher measurement or the one that generates the lower measurement.

It’s an important point because the gauge used before kickoff determines the starting point for the halftime analysis. If the pressures were set by the gauge with the logo and the long, crooked needle, that’s the gauge that should have been used at halftime. If it was the other gauge that was used before the game, that’s the one that should have been used at halftime.

The Wells report concludes that Anderson used the gauge that generates the lower measurement before kickoff, despite Anderson’s lack of specific recollection as to which gauge he used. The reasoning for the decision to assume Anderson used the gauge without the Wilson logo appears in the paragraph contained at the bottom of page 116 of the report.

Frankly, the explanation doesn’t make much sense. If anyone understands it, please let us know.

Here’s the one thing that does make sense: Without knowing which gauge was used to set the pressures before the game, it’s impossible to know which set of readings taken at halftime is the accurate set of readings, and which set of readings should be thrown out.

Third, knowing the gauge that was used before kickoff is critical to proving tampering.

At page 113, the Wells report states: “[T]he Ideal Gas Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room. Most of the individual Patriots measurements recorded at halftime, however, were lower than the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law.”

As those of you who were visiting PFT frequently in the early days of #DeflateGate may recall, the Ideal Gas Law refers to the formula that determines the changes in gases based on various factors, including but not limited to volume, pressure, and temperature. And the Wells report concludes that all Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 PSI at halftime.

But that observation hinges on the question of which gauge was used to set the PSI prior to kickoff. If the gauge that generates the higher numbers was used, the measurements of the Patriots footballs taken by that gauge are mostly consistent with the 11.52-11.32 PSI range at halftime: (1) 11.8; (2) 11.2; (3) 11.5; (4) 11.0; (5) 11.45; (6) 11.95; (7) 12.3; (8) 11.55; (9) 11.35; (10) 10.9; and (11) 11.35.

Based on those readings, three of the footballs were above the predicted range, five were in the predicted range, and three were below the predicted range.

By assuming that the gauge that generates the lower readings was used before the game began, the readings taken by that same gauge at halftime show that one ball was above the predicted range, two were in the predicted range, and eight were below the predicted range. Which is more consistent with the conclusion that some degree of tampering occurred.

So, basically, the scientific proof of tampering hinges on a literal coin flip between the pressure gauge that generated a higher reading and the pressure gauge that generated a lower reading. Apart from the very real problems inherent to the NFL using pressure gauges that generate such dramatically different readings for a key postseason game, the justification used to assume that Walt Anderson used before kickoff the gauge that makes tampering more likely doesn’t feel like the outcome of a scientific experiment. It feels like an effort to work backward to justify a predetermined conclusion.

None of this changes the fact that Larry and Curly exchanged text messages that point to a pattern of tampering during and prior to the 2014 season. None of this changes the fact that Tom Brady a/k/a Moe Howard may have a smoking gun or two lurking somewhere on his cell phone.

Regardless, scientists don’t dabble in probability or inference; even with the 50.1-vs.-49.9 standard of proof that applies both to civil lawsuits and the NFL’s High Court of Cheating, expert witnesses typically must base their opinions on a reasonable degree of scientific certainty. The fact that two gauges were available to Walt Anderson, the fact that those gauges generated such dramatically different readings, and the fact that Anderson specifically doesn’t remember which of the gauges he used to set the pressure prior to kickoff makes it very difficult to conclude with any degree of certainty whether the accurate measurements taken at halftime are the ones that suggest tampering, or the ones that don’t.

While the full scope of the report suggests that something fishy happened, it was believed all along that a conclusion of tampering would be backed up by sound, scientific evidence that tampering occurred. Despite 243-pages of polish, the scientific evidence in this specific case is significantly undermined by the fact that the NFL was using a clearly defective pressure gauge prior to one of its most important football games of the year.

[Charlie Brown]

these were all off-field issues,tho. brady's were 100% part of the league

People don't seem to grasp your key point on the field infractions that seek to determine the outcome of games is the sole responsibility of the NFL.

[Jet Fan RI]

 

You mean like this???

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/10/pressure-gauge-discrepancies-undermine-wells-report/

Pressure gauge discrepancies undermine Wells report

Posted by Mike Florio on May 10, 2015, 10:08 AM EDT

When the NFL dusted off the Ted Wells bat signal in January for an investigation regarding the question of whether the Patriots tampered with footballs used in the AFC championship game, it was believed that the raw measurements of air pressure inside the footballs taken at halftime would point clearly to tampering. Lost in the text messages between Larry and Curly and the question of whether Tom Brady was the Moe Howard periodically clunking their heads together to ensure that the footballs were suited to his preferences is the possibility that the raw measurements don’t point to tampering.

The erroneous report from ESPN that 10 of 12 balls were 2.0 PSI below the 12.5 PSI minimum cemented the early narrative that the amount of air missing from the footballs clearly suggests tampering. The actual numbers, standing alone, say otherwise.

It’s possible that the actual numbers suggest no tampering at all. Which could be the biggest problem with the 243-page report.

Here’s where we try (key word: try) to take something that’s pretty complicated and make it somewhat understandable.

First, the officials had two pressure gauges available — and those pressure gauges generated very different measurements.

One gauge had a Wilson logo on the back. The other didn’t. One had an obviously crooked needle. The other didn’t.

The gauge with the Wilson logo and the longer, crooked needle typically generated higher readings, in the range of 0.3 to 0.45 PSI.

The measurements taken at halftime of the AFC title game by the two available gauges demonstrated this reality.  Here’s the gap in PSI for each of the 11 Patriots footballs, based on the two gauges: (1) 0.3 PSI; (2) 0.35 PSI; (3) 0.35 PSI; (4) 0.3 PSI; (5) 0.35 PSI; (6) 0.35 PSI; (7) 0.45 PSI; (8) 0.45 PSI; (9) 0.4 PSI; (10) 0.4 PSI; and (11) 0.45 PSI.

Second, referee Walt Anderson doesn’t recall which gauge he used to measure PSI at the start of the game.

The absence of a documentation regarding the air pressure in the Patriots footballs prior to kickoff can be justified by Anderson’s clear recollection that he ensured each ball was set to 12.5 PSI. However, Anderson doesn’t clearly recall whether he used the gauge that generates the higher measurement or the one that generates the lower measurement.

It’s an important point because the gauge used before kickoff determines the starting point for the halftime analysis. If the pressures were set by the gauge with the logo and the long, crooked needle, that’s the gauge that should have been used at halftime. If it was the other gauge that was used before the game, that’s the one that should have been used at halftime.

The Wells report concludes that Anderson used the gauge that generates the lower measurement before kickoff, despite Anderson’s lack of specific recollection as to which gauge he used. The reasoning for the decision to assume Anderson used the gauge without the Wilson logo appears in the paragraph contained at the bottom of page 116 of the report.

Frankly, the explanation doesn’t make much sense. If anyone understands it, please let us know.

Here’s the one thing that does make sense: Without knowing which gauge was used to set the pressures before the game, it’s impossible to know which set of readings taken at halftime is the accurate set of readings, and which set of readings should be thrown out.

Third, knowing the gauge that was used before kickoff is critical to proving tampering.

At page 113, the Wells report states: “[T]he Ideal Gas Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room. Most of the individual Patriots measurements recorded at halftime, however, were lower than the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law.”

As those of you who were visiting PFT frequently in the early days of #DeflateGate may recall, the Ideal Gas Law refers to the formula that determines the changes in gases based on various factors, including but not limited to volume, pressure, and temperature. And the Wells report concludes that all Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 PSI at halftime.

But that observation hinges on the question of which gauge was used to set the PSI prior to kickoff. If the gauge that generates the higher numbers was used, the measurements of the Patriots footballs taken by that gauge are mostly consistent with the 11.52-11.32 PSI range at halftime: (1) 11.8; (2) 11.2; (3) 11.5; (4) 11.0; (5) 11.45; (6) 11.95; (7) 12.3; (8) 11.55; (9) 11.35; (10) 10.9; and (11) 11.35.

Based on those readings, three of the footballs were above the predicted range, five were in the predicted range, and three were below the predicted range.

By assuming that the gauge that generates the lower readings was used before the game began, the readings taken by that same gauge at halftime show that one ball was above the predicted range, two were in the predicted range, and eight were below the predicted range. Which is more consistent with the conclusion that some degree of tampering occurred.

So, basically, the scientific proof of tampering hinges on a literal coin flip between the pressure gauge that generated a higher reading and the pressure gauge that generated a lower reading. Apart from the very real problems inherent to the NFL using pressure gauges that generate such dramatically different readings for a key postseason game, the justification used to assume that Walt Anderson used before kickoff the gauge that makes tampering more likely doesn’t feel like the outcome of a scientific experiment. It feels like an effort to work backward to justify a predetermined conclusion.

None of this changes the fact that Larry and Curly exchanged text messages that point to a pattern of tampering during and prior to the 2014 season. None of this changes the fact that Tom Brady a/k/a Moe Howard may have a smoking gun or two lurking somewhere on his cell phone.

Regardless, scientists don’t dabble in probability or inference; even with the 50.1-vs.-49.9 standard of proof that applies both to civil lawsuits and the NFL’s High Court of Cheating, expert witnesses typically must base their opinions on a reasonable degree of scientific certainty. The fact that two gauges were available to Walt Anderson, the fact that those gauges generated such dramatically different readings, and the fact that Anderson specifically doesn’t remember which of the gauges he used to set the pressure prior to kickoff makes it very difficult to conclude with any degree of certainty whether the accurate measurements taken at halftime are the ones that suggest tampering, or the ones that don’t.

While the full scope of the report suggests that something fishy happened, it was believed all along that a conclusion of tampering would be backed up by sound, scientific evidence that tampering occurred. Despite 243-pages of polish, the scientific evidence in this specific case is significantly undermined by the fact that the NFL was using a clearly defective pressure gauge prior to one of its most important football games of the year.

 

 

Don't have the patience to read all of that. But the differences between pressure gauges was accounted for in the report, and those difference do not affect the fact that the Pats' balls were deflated by other-than natural means. The only effect is the extent of the deflation. The fact is that despite the fact that the Colts' and Pats' balls started from different pressures, both sets of balls should have deflated by similar amounts. But the Pats' balls deflated more, as was found on both gauge types. Also, at the half, there were much larger variations between the Pats' balls compared with each other, than between the Colt's' balls, compared with each other, and these variations show up on both gauges types. And this difference between balls is despite the fact that all the Pats' balls were measured to have started from about the same pressure, about 12.5 psi. The Colts' balls also started from about the same pressure as each other. The large variation between the Pats' balls, but not the Colts' balls, is suggestive of a hasty manual deflation of the Pats' balls.

[GREENBEAN]

He tampered with the integrity of the game by altering the device used in the game, giving him, his RBs, TE, and WRs a distinct advantage over their opponents.  Probably did this every game for the last 4 years, since he, himself, lobbied the league to allow individual teams to "prepare" the game balls?  How many game's outcomes could this have affected.  One less fumble... a couple of extra completions...  all could be game changers.  

 

Then, he lied to the public about it and had the audacity to mock the league for even insinuating that he did anything wrong.

 

Then he lied to the league itself and its investigators.

 

Then he impeded the investigation by not turning over the evidence they requested.

 

Finally, he and his team threaten the media if they continue to press on.

 

I'd say he should be suspended for a full season.  Let him appeal it and they'll knock it down to 8 games.  

 

That Brady is a smug, arrogant lying douche.  His stats are padded as a result of his cheating and who knows how many games, including playoff games, for which his cheating altered the outcome.

 

As the saying goes.... "F-ck Tom"

agreed 100%. 

And add to that Brady's lawyer came out and tried to create a conspiracy against Brady and the Pats. Their response has been ridiculous and is surely making things worse.  Which I'm totqlly ok with

[32EBoozer]

Don't have the patience to read all of that. But the differences between pressure gauges was accounted for in the report, and those difference do not affect the fact that the Pats' balls were deflated by other-than natural means. The only effect is the extent of the deflation. The fact is that despite the fact that the Colts' and Pats' balls started from different pressures, both sets of balls should have deflated by similar amounts. But the Pats' balls deflated more, as was found on both gauge types. Also, at the half, there were much larger variations between the Pats' balls compared with each other, than between the Colt's' balls, compared with each other, and these variations show up on both gauges types. And this difference between balls is despite the fact that all the Pats' balls were measured to have started from about the same pressure, about 12.5 psi. The Colts' balls also started from about the same pressure as each other. The large variation between the Pats' balls, but not the Colts' balls, is suggestive of a hasty manual deflation of the Pats' balls.

Thanks.... no wonder why Wells report took so long. Not only investigating, interviewing and writing up the report.... they also had to try and think of every excuse that would be brought up and have that already defended in the report.

[Larz]

Don't have the patience to read all of that. But the differences between pressure gauges was accounted for in the report, and those difference do not affect the fact that the Pats' balls were deflated by other-than natural means. The only effect is the extent of the deflation. The fact is that despite the fact that the Colts' and Pats' balls started from different pressures, both sets of balls should have deflated by similar amounts. But the Pats' balls deflated more, as was found on both gauge types. Also, at the half, there were much larger variations between the Pats' balls compared with each other, than between the Colt's' balls, compared with each other, and these variations show up on both gauges types. And this difference between balls is despite the fact that all the Pats' balls were measured to have started from about the same pressure, about 12.5 psi. The Colts' balls also started from about the same pressure as each other. The large variation between the Pats' balls, but not the Colts' balls, is suggestive of a hasty manual deflation of the Pats' balls.

 

 

bingo. 

 

there is only 1 explanation that makes sense when you consider everything including the text messages from the self described "deflator" who disappears into a locked room and later makes jokes about needles and payments

 

oh yeah, and **** tom, lol

[fastmover]

Don't have the patience to read all of that. But the differences between pressure gauges was accounted for in the report, and those difference do not affect the fact that the Pats' balls were deflated by other-than natural means. The only effect is the extent of the deflation. The fact is that despite the fact that the Colts' and Pats' balls started from different pressures, both sets of balls should have deflated by similar amounts. But the Pats' balls deflated more, as was found on both gauge types. Also, at the half, there were much larger variations between the Pats' balls compared with each other, than between the Colt's' balls, compared with each other, and these variations show up on both gauges types. And this difference between balls is despite the fact that all the Pats' balls were measured to have started from about the same pressure, about 12.5 psi. The Colts' balls also started from about the same pressure as each other. The large variation between the Pats' balls, but not the Colts' balls, is suggestive of a hasty manual deflation of the Pats' balls.

Exactly!

In the world of Motorsports, we always baselined our measuring equipment of the officials equipment, in sense zeroing our equipment to theirs, so after the race and the car was impounded for final tech inspection, our readings would match the officials, because it did not matter if the officials equipment read inaccurate, since their readings are final and absolute.

We also prepped our cars to meet the rules requirements after the race was over, all this was taken into account, weight, ride height, camber and toe readings, fuel levels and AIR PRESSURES in the tires, we were never penalized and we managed to win races and contend for the championship and the end of the season. Go figure.... So football operations clearly should and do the same things in principal.

Semper Fi

[ylekram]

bingo. 

 

there is only 1 explanation that makes sense when you consider everything including the text messages from the self described "deflator" who disappears into a locked room and later makes jokes about needles and payments

 

oh yeah, and **** tom, lol

I didn't bother to read the entire report. you mentioned payments. as in tom paid the equipment managers to alter the balls?

[Jet Fan RI]

Thanks.... no wonder why Wells report took so long. Not only investigating, interviewing and writing up the report.... they also had to try and think of every excuse that would be brought up and have that already defended in the report.

 

Right, If they would actually read the technical appendices, I think they would find the work was very thorough, I also posted previously that the technical appendices are really not all that technically difficult, and I think everyone should take a look at them. Mostly pictures and words. The equations are displayed so those who recognize them will have a pretty quick understanding of what was done. But the equations are not really used in the report. So just skip them if you are unfamiliar with them. It you read through the words, then look at the graphs, I think you will find the graphs quite compelling. 

[Jet Fan RI]

Exactly!

In the world of Motorsports, we always baselined our measuring equipment of the officials equipment, in sense zeroing our equipment to theirs, so after the race and the car was impounded for final tech inspection, our readings would match the officials, because it did not matter if the officials equipment read inaccurate, since their readings are final and absolute.

We also prepped our cars to meet the rules requirements after the race was over, all this was taken into account, weight, ride height, camber and toe readings, fuel levels and AIR PRESSURES in the tires, we were never penalized and we managed to win races and contend for the championship and the end of the season. Go figure.... So football operations clearly should and do the same things in principal.

Semper Fi

 

Nice description. And I think if folks would take a look at the technical appendices, they would find the methods used in the testing of the footballs was as meticulous as you describe here. 

[j4jets]

You mean like this???

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/10/pressure-gauge-discrepancies-undermine-wells-report/ Pressure gauge discrepancies undermine Wells report

Posted by Mike Florio on May 10, 2015, 10:08 AM EDT

When the NFL dusted off the Ted Wells bat signal in January for an investigation regarding the question of whether the Patriots tampered with footballs used in the AFC championship game, it was believed that the raw measurements of air pressure inside the footballs taken at halftime would point clearly to tampering. Lost in the text messages between Larry and Curly and the question of whether Tom Brady was the Moe Howard periodically clunking their heads together to ensure that the footballs were suited to his preferences is the possibility that the raw measurements don’t point to tampering.

The erroneous report from ESPN that 10 of 12 balls were 2.0 PSI below the 12.5 PSI minimum cemented the early narrative that the amount of air missing from the footballs clearly suggests tampering. The actual numbers, standing alone, say otherwise.

It’s possible that the actual numbers suggest no tampering at all. Which could be the biggest problem with the 243-page report.

Here’s where we try (key word: try) to take something that’s pretty complicated and make it somewhat understandable.

First, the officials had two pressure gauges available — and those pressure gauges generated very different measurements.

One gauge had a Wilson logo on the back. The other didn’t. One had an obviously crooked needle. The other didn’t.

The gauge with the Wilson logo and the longer, crooked needle typically generated higher readings, in the range of 0.3 to 0.45 PSI.

The measurements taken at halftime of the AFC title game by the two available gauges demonstrated this reality. Here’s the gap in PSI for each of the 11 Patriots footballs, based on the two gauges: (1) 0.3 PSI; (2) 0.35 PSI; (3) 0.35 PSI; (4) 0.3 PSI; (5) 0.35 PSI; (6) 0.35 PSI; (7) 0.45 PSI; (8) 0.45 PSI; (9) 0.4 PSI; (10) 0.4 PSI; and (11) 0.45 PSI.

Second, referee Walt Anderson doesn’t recall which gauge he used to measure PSI at the start of the game.

The absence of a documentation regarding the air pressure in the Patriots footballs prior to kickoff can be justified by Anderson’s clear recollection that he ensured each ball was set to 12.5 PSI. However, Anderson doesn’t clearly recall whether he used the gauge that generates the higher measurement or the one that generates the lower measurement.

It’s an important point because the gauge used before kickoff determines the starting point for the halftime analysis. If the pressures were set by the gauge with the logo and the long, crooked needle, that’s the gauge that should have been used at halftime. If it was the other gauge that was used before the game, that’s the one that should have been used at halftime.

The Wells report concludes that Anderson used the gauge that generates the lower measurement before kickoff, despite Anderson’s lack of specific recollection as to which gauge he used. The reasoning for the decision to assume Anderson used the gauge without the Wilson logo appears in the paragraph contained at the bottom of page 116 of the report.

Frankly, the explanation doesn’t make much sense. If anyone understands it, please let us know.

Here’s the one thing that does make sense: Without knowing which gauge was used to set the pressures before the game, it’s impossible to know which set of readings taken at halftime is the accurate set of readings, and which set of readings should be thrown out.

Third, knowing the gauge that was used before kickoff is critical to proving tampering.

At page 113, the Wells report states: “[T]he Ideal Gas Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room. Most of the individual Patriots measurements recorded at halftime, however, were lower than the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law.”

As those of you who were visiting PFT frequently in the early days of #DeflateGate may recall, the Ideal Gas Law refers to the formula that determines the changes in gases based on various factors, including but not limited to volume, pressure, and temperature. And the Wells report concludes that all Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 PSI at halftime.

But that observation hinges on the question of which gauge was used to set the PSI prior to kickoff. If the gauge that generates the higher numbers was used, the measurements of the Patriots footballs taken by that gauge are mostly consistent with the 11.52-11.32 PSI range at halftime: (1) 11.8; (2) 11.2; (3) 11.5; (4) 11.0; (5) 11.45; (6) 11.95; (7) 12.3; (8) 11.55; (9) 11.35; (10) 10.9; and (11) 11.35.

Based on those readings, three of the footballs were above the predicted range, five were in the predicted range, and three were below the predicted range.

By assuming that the gauge that generates the lower readings was used before the game began, the readings taken by that same gauge at halftime show that one ball was above the predicted range, two were in the predicted range, and eight were below the predicted range. Which is more consistent with the conclusion that some degree of tampering occurred.

So, basically, the scientific proof of tampering hinges on a literal coin flip between the pressure gauge that generated a higher reading and the pressure gauge that generated a lower reading. Apart from the very real problems inherent to the NFL using pressure gauges that generate such dramatically different readings for a key postseason game, the justification used to assume that Walt Anderson used before kickoff the gauge that makes tampering more likely doesn’t feel like the outcome of a scientific experiment. It feels like an effort to work backward to justify a predetermined conclusion.

None of this changes the fact that Larry and Curly exchanged text messages that point to a pattern of tampering during and prior to the 2014 season. None of this changes the fact that Tom Brady a/k/a Moe Howard may have a smoking gun or two lurking somewhere on his cell phone.

Regardless, scientists don’t dabble in probability or inference; even with the 50.1-vs.-49.9 standard of proof that applies both to civil lawsuits and the NFL’s High Court of Cheating, expert witnesses typically must base their opinions on a reasonable degree of scientific certainty. The fact that two gauges were available to Walt Anderson, the fact that those gauges generated such dramatically different readings, and the fact that Anderson specifically doesn’t remember which of the gauges he used to set the pressure prior to kickoff makes it very difficult to conclude with any degree of certainty whether the accurate measurements taken at halftime are the ones that suggest tampering, or the ones that don’t.

While the full scope of the report suggests that something fishy happened, it was believed all along that a conclusion of tampering would be backed up by sound, scientific evidence that tampering occurred. Despite 243-pages of polish, the scientific evidence in this specific case is significantly undermined by the fact that the NFL was using a clearly defective pressure gauge prior to one of its most important football games of the year.

TL;DR. What a load of crap that science was. Does their science explain the text messages? And what if the refs measured the balls with the lower measuring PSI at the start and the higher measuring PSI at the half time? The discrepancy would be much greater in reality then.

Do we really need science to prove that Justfcuktomski sent those text messages?

[Jet Fan RI]

I didn't bother to read the entire report. you mentioned payments. as in tom paid the equipment managers to alter the balls?

 

I'm still reading the non-technical parts of the report myself. But the texts between the equipment men mention cash, sneakers, and signed game-used paraphernalia from Brady.  

[Larz]

I didn't bother to read the entire report. you mentioned payments. as in tom paid the equipment managers to alter the balls?

 

tom autographed balls and game worn jersies.  they are clearly in exhchange for the deflation.  mcnally clearly s uncomfortable with being told to break the rules, so he makes it clear he wants payments.  they even discuss his shoe size to make sure the expensive kicks are the right size

[Jet Fan RI]

TL;DR. What a load of crap that science was. Does their science explain the text messages? And what if the refs measured the balls with the lower measuring PSI at the start and the higher measuring PSI at the half time? The discrepancy would be much greater in reality then.

Do we really need science to prove that Justfcuktomski sent those text messages?

 

Well, to those who understand the appendices, that science speaks as loudly as the quoted texts. Together, the facts and science more than meet the standard for proving violations of the rules occurred (more probable than not). Again, for those who may have missed it, those words do not mean "maybe the rules were broken." They mean "the rules were proven to have been broken."

[Greensince69]

Regardless of the measurements the equipment guys deflated the balls After they checked initially by the refs for the game.  If they thought they were in the guidelines why the extra deflation after the refs said the balls were ok.  Ahh those 100 seconds in the bathroom.