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Brandon Marshall Re-Structures Contract


JetNation

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This is simply untrue. It happens all the time.

There's a reason teams do this (to acquire such a player). They want the player and want the leverage the original team has, rather than the leverage the player has as a full UFA after the 9 months is up (and they will then be in a bidding war with any number of other teams). Not to mention, they get the player's services immediately rather than next year or later (when coach and/or GM might be out of a job anyway).

It often happens before the draft, but that would only mean there's even more incentive for another team to do this now (rather than 2 months ago) since they get the veteran player now and don't lose any draft picks until the following season and/or beyond.

How come teams wouldn't trade for a proven commodity such as Wilk?

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How come teams wouldn't trade for a proven commodity such as Wilk?

 

Several reasons:

 

1. Asking price in picks is more than they're willing to surrender. Teams - especially GMs - always want to take their shot with their 1st round pick, in hopes they get that all-time great that's typically unavailable (or cost prohibitive) in FA. Generally, overvaluing draft picks. Yes, even 1st rounders have a much higher bust rate than FAs, but then they're also a small fraction of the cost for the next half decade. It's not nothing, the difference between $3M/year and $10M/year (or more). That extra $ could/would be spent on yet another high-priced player (or bridge the gap between a lower-level $3-4M starter and a great one). So if you are on target in the draft, as a GM you get 2 great players for the price of 1. Simply put, it's why teams that draft so well do so well.

 

2. QBs. They're the life blood of a team and it's hardly a secret. Lots of teams are looking for one every year in the draft, and the earlier one is drafted, typically the better player you're going to get. A team that really wants to draft a QB is less likely to trade away a 1st round pick (let alone a 1st and more) on a DE/DT, plus the 8-figure salary he'll need very shortly thereafter (if not immediately thereafter, to avoid the risk of losing a player you just traded so much to acquire). 

 

3. Where in round 1 a team (realistically) thinks they're likely to draft. If it's a team like New England, they know in a terrible off-year they're still not picking in the top 15. But a team like Oakland, Cleveland, the Jets, and others know they could be trading away a top 10 and possibly even a top 5 pick. Not nearly the same as a team, like NE, who would figure to lose around the 22nd pick only if all goes wrong, and highly likely not inside the top 25-27.

 

4. Scheme fit. His value may be highest as a 3-4 DE, and would rationally want to get paid as a top-notch 3-4 DE. Well, not every team's base defense employs a 3-man line. He'd have to either play outside on a 4-man line, where his lack of burner-type speed/quickness is more of a factor (since they get less pass rush from the OLBs), or move inside where his pass-rushing skills are likely to be diminished somewhat (or anyway it's unknown what the results would be).

 

5. Another team's lack of need at the position, even if he fits their scheme perfectly. I'm sure they would still be happy to have him, just like the Jets right now (which is why we're not just dumping him for whatever's the best we can get, even if it's below his value), but they're not giving up a #1 pick and more, plus an 8-figure/year deal with somewhere between $30-50M guaranteed.

 

6. Lack of cap space, or lack of enough cap space to burn through the type of dollars Mo will surely command.

 

 

You take all these things into account (plus any I missed), and there just isn't going to be a huge market of teams looking to trade a 1st rounder plus more for Mo, even though more than 1 will likely draft an identical-type player in the upcoming draft. Every one of these reasons individually takes multiple teams out of the running -- cumulatively, you end up with very few interested parties (if any at all), which is where we are today.

 

Thank you for the open-ended question that invites me to babble. You may get a lot of hate mail PMs as a result, but they won't be from me. lol

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Several reasons:

1. Asking price in picks is more than they're willing to surrender. Teams - especially GMs - always want to take their shot with their 1st round pick, in hopes they get that all-time great that's typically unavailable (or cost prohibitive) in FA. Generally, overvaluing draft picks. Yes, even 1st rounders have a much higher bust rate than FAs, but then they're also a small fraction of the cost for the next half decade. It's not nothing, the difference between $3M/year and $10M/year (or more). That extra $ could/would be spent on yet another high-priced player (or bridge the gap between a lower-level $3-4M starter and a great one). So if you are on target in the draft, as a GM you get 2 great players for the price of 1. Simply put, it's why teams that draft so well do so well.

2. QBs. They're the life blood of a team and it's hardly a secret. Lots of teams are looking for one every year in the draft, and the earlier one is drafted, typically the better player you're going to get. A team that really wants to draft a QB is less likely to trade away a 1st round pick (let alone a 1st and more) on a DE/DT, plus the 8-figure salary he'll need very shortly thereafter (if not immediately thereafter, to avoid the risk of losing a player you just traded so much to acquire).

3. Where in round 1 a team (realistically) thinks they're likely to draft. If it's a team like New England, they know in a terrible off-year they're still not picking in the top 15. But a team like Oakland, Cleveland, the Jets, and others know they could be trading away a top 10 and possibly even a top 5 pick. Not nearly the same as a team, like NE, who would figure to lose around the 22nd pick only if all goes wrong, and highly likely not inside the top 25-27.

4. Scheme fit. His value may be highest as a 3-4 DE, and would rationally want to get paid as a top-notch 3-4 DE. Well, not every team's base defense employs a 3-man line. He'd have to either play outside on a 4-man line, where his lack of burner-type speed is more of a factor (since they get less pass rush from the OLBs), or move inside where his pass-rushing skills are likely to be diminished somewhat (or anyway it's unknown what the results would be).

5. Another team's lack of need at the position, even if he fits their scheme perfectly. I'm sure they would still be happy to have him, just like the Jets right now (which is why we're not just dumping him for whatever's the best we can get, even if it's below his value), but they're not giving up a #1 pick and more, plus an 8-figure/year deal with somewhere between $30-50M guaranteed.

6. Lack of cap space, or lack of enough cap space to burn through the type of dollars Mo will surely command.

You take all these things into account (plus any I missed), and there just isn't going to be a huge market of teams looking to trade a 1st rounder plus more for Mo, even though more than 1 will likely draft an identical-type player in the upcoming draft. Every one of these reasons individually takes multiple teams out of the running -- cumulatively, you end up with very few interested parties (if any at all), which is where we are today.

Thank you for the open-ended question that invites me to babble. You may get a lot of hate mail PMs as a result, but they won't be from me. lol

You're a nerd. I hate you.

:P

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