Fitzpatrick isnt better than Geno, he just fails more preferably- Football Outsiders

[LWC611]

Well that article really makes me look forward to the season...

 

[Augustiniak]

The writers assertion that Geno had turned some kind of corner and with the additional weapons and Gailey we might have been looking good was the pipe smoking in my opinion.

He sounds like he's pissed off that got taken away and now we're stuck with a pus arm that doesn't really make great decisions.

I'm pissed off too - I wish Geno would have had a spiritual awakening and started to act like a leader instead of an entitled sphincter -  and further that all translated to him being a middle of the pack or better NFL QB.

The only difference is I believe are the writer gave that I much greater chance of happening than I ever did.  

the thing is, everyone based geno's 2015 progress on a few good games and physical attributes.  but what's clearly holding him back is the fallout from the IK incident and the rehashing of his character from the predraft process.  most qbs don't get 3 years to get that part of the nfl right, and usually the only guys who get that long are 1st round picks.  there's just too many qbs coming into the league each year, there should have been a greater sense of urgency to understand the necessity to carry himself differently.

[dbatesman]

Guys, let's do it. Let's have a lengthy debate about the relative merits and demerits, both statistical and philosophical, of dropped interceptions.

[JustInFudge]

I remember when I was excited about the season...

[dbatesman]

YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO

[Jetsfan80]

I appreciate the effort put into this, but where is the similar Geno analysis, to try to identify this upside we keep hearing about?

I admit that it is surprising how much Fitzpatrick checks down.  I thought he'd be more like an Andy Dalton type but the "poor man's Alex Smith" does seem like an apt comparison.  But again, NO ONE is saying Fitz should be a factor in our QB decisions next season.  And that's likely a good thing.  We don't need a journeyman backup/capable spot starter to be handed a sizable contract and made into "the guy".  Nor do I think our GM, HC or OC have any delusions about that.  He's here for 1 year and that's it.

[jgb]

In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.  Failing less awfully... I'll take it!

[slats]

if he does get another chance, it won't be a big one.  fitz will get before the bye to solidify the job.  if he does, geno gets no shot.  if he sucks, geno may get a shot, but if game 9 or 10 rolls around and they're out of contention, they may bring in petty.  geno needs fitz to get hurt, and for the team to be in contention, to get another shot.  and even if that happens, he better look good, b/c at this point he's not on the roster next year.

Yes, Fitz has the opportunity to solidify himself in the job, but I think he has to play well to do so. He's limited physically, so he has to play very intelligently, be the game manager that his legion of fans believes he can be. IMO, that's a 50-50 proposition at best. Geno was outplaying him in camp, and had the starting job locked up before he got literally KO'd out of it. Their original plan was to start and evaluate Geno this year. I'm sure that's something they'd still like to do. The wild card, of course, is how much Geno's role in getting his jaw broken, and the subsequent aftermath (where few teammates came to his defense) affects their thinking. That, and how well Fitz plays. I do agree that it is his job to lose. 

But out if they're out of contention by week 9 or 10, that would mean that Fitz has not played well. Geno would be in the lineup before it got that far, and would probably stay in the lineup for the rest of the year unless they really saw in practice that Petty was massively improved. Being that Petty will probably be running the scout team once the season starts, that's unlikely, too. I also get the feeling that the entire organization wants Petty to sit the entire year. 

[Jet Nut]

 

That's horrible...it looks like a lot of work went in to that article, but that one line pretty much gives the reader no reason to continue.  If you want to say you hope Geno comes around, higher ceiling, etc...then that's fine.  But to describe him in that manner shows there is very little objectivity.

Except that his last 5 games after his return from being benched he finished with a QR over 100, the second highest in the league.  So if youre and outsider, and you go by the way he finished...strictly numbers without the "I'm a Jet fan and want him out of here" agenda it makes perfect sense.  Actually only someone with an agenda would have an issue with the line

[NJ]

Except that his last 5 games after his return from being benched he finished with a QR over 100, the second highest in the league.  So if youre and outsider, and you go by the way he finished...strictly numbers without the "I'm a Jet fan and want him out of here" agenda it makes perfect sense.  Actually only someone with an agenda would have an issue with the line

Can't argue with the numbers but it was obvious there was and needed to be an extremely tight leash on the player when he was allowed to QB again. 

 

On that subject -

Are all these check downs Fitz is throwing really check downs or is he being told to throw only quick slants and drags?  

Looked like he wasn't checking down much of anything last game and those were the play calls. 

[slats]

'13 adjusted interceptions'

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle

Kindly **** right off. 

"Dropped interceptions" was a stat thrown around to discuss Mark Sanchez back in the day, too. Poo-poo'd then, too, but seems pretty telling in retrospect. 

wonder how many geno had.

The article gives you a hint: 

The Texans starter finished as one of the worst players tracked in that [interception] project. He shared a tier with Andy Dalton and Derek Carr, ranking above just four of the 31 charted quarterbacks. Geno Smith ranked five spots higher than Fitzpatrick and was dramatically better over the second half of his season than he was the first. 

[jgb]

I appreciate the effort put into this, but where is the similar Geno analysis, to try to identify this upside we keep hearing about?

I admit that it is surprising how much Fitzpatrick checks down.  I thought he'd be more like an Andy Dalton type but the "poor man's Alex Smith" does seem like an apt comparison.  But again, NO ONE is saying Fitz should be a factor in our QB decisions next season.  And that's likely a good thing.  We don't need a journeyman backup/capable spot starter to be handed a sizable contract and made into "the guy".  Nor do I think our GM, HC or OC have any delusions about that.  He's here for 1 year and that's it.

He could stick on as a backup/mentor after that. But if he is starting next year we're in deep doo doo.

[Jet9]

"Dropped interceptions" was a stat thrown around to discuss Mark Sanchez back in the day, too. Poo-poo'd then, too, but seems pretty telling in retrospect. 

The article gives you a hint: 

The Texans starter finished as one of the worst players tracked in that [interception] project. He shared a tier with Andy Dalton and Derek Carr, ranking above just four of the 31 charted quarterbacks. Geno Smith ranked five spots higher than Fitzpatrick and was dramatically better over the second half of his season than he was the first. 

EH.

 

'If the center fielder was a little taller he wouldn't have hit a home run'

 

'If he was any good at foul shot we would have lost'

 

'If they didn't take a penalty late in the 3rd they wouldn't have lost in OT'

Except that's not what happened, was it?

Sabremetrics and CrystalBalltrics I have lost most respect for. It's a whole lotta shoulda/coulda/wouldas mixed with a pinch of ifs, ands, or buts.

[Maxman]

Fitzpatrick isn't better than Geno, he just sucks less. That is what I take from this.

[slats]

EH.

 

'If the center fielder was a little taller he wouldn't have hit a home run'

 

'If he was any good at foul shot we would have lost'

 

'If they didn't take a penalty late in the 3rd they wouldn't have lost in OT'

Except that's not what happened, was it?

Sabremetrics and CrystalBalltrics I have lost most respect for. It's a whole lotta shoulda/coulda/wouldas mixed with a pinch of ifs, ands, or buts.

 

Straight statistics do a poor job of telling the story of what goes on on a football field, too. None of this is be all, end all, but I appreciate the work put in to look behind the numbers. In this case, it points out some reasons why Fitzpatrick had his statistically best season last year while still basically being the same player he's always been. 

[Jetman55]

Straight statistics do a poor job of telling the story of what goes on on a football field, too. None of this is be all, end all, but I appreciate the work put in to look behind the numbers. In this case, it points out some reasons why Fitzpatrick had his statistically best season last year while still basically being the same player he's always been. 

The breakdown on Fitzpatrick is super easy...

Last season:

Fitzpatrick against the Raiders, jaguars, and titans: 9 TDs and 0 INTs.

Fitzpatrick last season against the rest of the league: 8 TDs and 8 INTs
Geno Smith when not facing the Jags, Titans, and Raiders last year: 11 TDs and 12 INTs, 2 and 1 when he did.

The Texans play in a horrible division, and Fitz had a 6 TD game vs the Titans.  Lets not forget this 10+ year vet got benched at the bye week last year by O'Brien for Mallett, and only played again when Mallet got hurt.  The Texans turned the page on this craptastic QB mid season...we are talking about the Texans here.  Let's not forget the Titans and Rams also cut bait on Fitz.

So the Texans, Rams, Titans, and now the Jets took a flyer on Fitz...what do these teams have in common?  Sh!t at QB for a loooooooooooooooong time...and if those teams quickly cut bait on Fitz...guess what the Jets are very likely to do?  

[Jet9]

Straight statistics do a poor job of telling the story of what goes on on a football field, too. None of this is be all, end all, but I appreciate the work put in to look behind the numbers. In this case, it points out some reasons why Fitzpatrick had his statistically best season last year while still basically being the same player he's always been. 

I just find articles lie this to be a pretentiously nerdy way of sh*tting all over someone who, while an anomaly, had a decent year.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Guys, let's do it. Let's have a lengthy debate about the relative merits and demerits, both statistical and philosophical, of dropped interceptions.

If dropped interceptions were an ice-cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick. 

[Beerfish]

The breakdown on Fitzpatrick is super easy...
Last season:

Fitzpatrick against the Raiders, jaguars, and titans: 9 TDs and 0 INTs.

Fitzpatrick last season against the rest of the league: 8 TDs and 8 INTs
Geno Smith when not facing the Jags, Titans, and Raiders last year: 11 TDs and 12 INTs, 2 and 1 when he did.

The Texans play in a horrible division, and Fitz had a 6 TD game vs the Titans.  Lets not forget this 10+ year vet got benched at the bye week last year by O'Brien for Mallett, and only played again when Mallet got hurt.  The Texans turned the page on this craptastic QB mid season...we are talking about the Texans here.  Let's not forget the Titans and Rams also cut bait on Fitz.

So the Texans, Rams, Titans, and now the Jets took a flyer on Fitz...what do these teams have in common?  Sh!t at QB for a loooooooooooooooong time...and if those teams quickly cut bait on Fitz...guess what the Jets are very likely to do?  

 

I don't disagree with this to any great extent.  Fitzpatrick has never been looked at as the solution but (or Flynn) but at least this version of the Jets is smart enough to get guys who can possibly hold the fort to some extent.  I also do not think the current regime has any big degree of loyalty to Geno or thinks he is the long term solution.  I think both will get playing time this year because neither one will be able to play well enough long term to be a confident starter.

[Jet Nut]

Can't argue with the numbers but it was obvious there was and needed to be an extremely tight leash on the player when he was allowed to QB again. 

 

On that subject -

Are all these check downs Fitz is throwing really check downs or is he being told to throw only quick slants and drags?  

Looked like he wasn't checking down much of anything last game and those were the play calls. 

I agree, not sure how much of Fitz was check downs versus a very dialed back playbook forms guy who has had limited practice time with starters combined with the fact that's it's preseason.  

I dont live live and die with Geno's closing 5 game numbers, have to prove it over the course of a season but the numbers are encouraging.  Especially when taken after he was benched with the purpose of having him sit and learn to come back a better player.  It's what everyone wanted, what everyone cried for.  They benched him, brought him back and it worked at least as good as everyone hoped and now it's back to who cares. 

[Jet9]

The breakdown on Fitzpatrick is super easy...
Last season:

Fitzpatrick against the Raiders, jaguars, and titans: 9 TDs and 0 INTs.

Fitzpatrick last season against the rest of the league: 8 TDs and 8 INTs
Geno Smith when not facing the Jags, Titans, and Raiders last year: 11 TDs and 12 INTs, 2 and 1 when he did.

The Texans play in a horrible division, and Fitz had a 6 TD game vs the Titans.  Lets not forget this 10+ year vet got benched at the bye week last year by O'Brien for Mallett, and only played again when Mallet got hurt.  The Texans turned the page on this craptastic QB mid season...we are talking about the Texans here.  Let's not forget the Titans and Rams also cut bait on Fitz.

So the Texans, Rams, Titans, and now the Jets took a flyer on Fitz...what do these teams have in common?  Sh!t at QB for a loooooooooooooooong time...and if those teams quickly cut bait on Fitz...guess what the Jets are very likely to do?  

The Jets play in a horrible division too.

[#27TheDominator]

If dropped interceptions were an ice-cream flavor, it'd be pralines and dick. 

Dropped interceptions:  The official ice cream flavor of JetNation!

[BroadwayJoe12]

Dropped interceptions:  The official ice cream flavor of JetNation!

 

Max and the mods originally wanted it to be just dick, but they were ensured the pralines were crucial to balancing out the overwhelming bitterness and shame of the dick. 

[#27TheDominator]

 

Max and the mods originally wanted it to be just dick, but they were ensured the pralines were crucial to balancing out the overwhelming bitterness and shame of the dick. 

 

To be fair, I think at JN it is about bag o' dicks more than just dick singular.

[Jetman55]

I don't disagree with this to any great extent.  Fitzpatrick has never been looked at as the solution but (or Flynn) but at least this version of the Jets is smart enough to get guys who can possibly hold the fort to some extent.  I also do not think the current regime has any big degree of loyalty to Geno or thinks he is the long term solution.  I think both will get playing time this year because neither one will be able to play well enough long term to be a confident starter.

Fitz can "hold the fort?"  He had a 1600 total yard back in Foster last year and a top 7 defense and took those weapons to 6-6...he was also throwing to Hopkins and Andre Johnson who combined for 160 receptions and 2,000 yards receiving...

Fiutzpatrick has never won more than 6 games in a season...ever...and never had a winning record as a starting QB played...even when everything around him is perfect like last year, GREAT D, GREAT run game, and GREAT WRs...the best he could do is .500.

I think the best we can do with Fitz, is also .500, as our run game and oline will not be as good as what Fitz had last year, and he wont be facing the Jags and Titans 4 times this year either.

Hoping for better than 8-8 is folly, IMO, from a team led by Fitzpatrick at QB.  He's just not an NFL talent.  If the Patriots had Fitzpatrick at QB this year, jets Nation wouldn't even take them seriously as play-offs contenders...guess how non-Jets fans look at us with Fitz at QB...

[#27TheDominator]

The breakdown on Fitzpatrick is super easy...
Last season:

Fitzpatrick against the Raiders, jaguars, and titans: 9 TDs and 0 INTs.

Fitzpatrick last season against the rest of the league: 8 TDs and 8 INTs
Geno Smith when not facing the Jags, Titans, and Raiders last year: 11 TDs and 12 INTs, 2 and 1 when he did.
 

Yep.  Super easy.  Fitzpatrick > Geno. Thanks for the stats.

[Joe Jets fan]

Fitz can "hold the fort?"  He had a 1600 total yard back in Foster last year and a top 7 defense and took those weapons to 6-6...he was also throwing to Hopkins and Andre Johnson who combined for 160 receptions and 2,000 yards receiving...

Fiutzpatrick has never won more than 6 games in a season...ever...and never had a winning record as a starting QB played...even when everything around him is perfect like last year, GREAT D, GREAT run game, and GREAT WRs...the best he could do is .500.

I think the best we can do with Fitz, is also .500, as our run game and oline will not be as good as what Fitz had last year, and he wont be facing the Jags and Titans 4 times this year either.

Hoping for better than 8-8 is folly, IMO, from a team led by Fitzpatrick at QB.  He's just not an NFL talent.  If the Patriots had Fitzpatrick at QB this year, jets Nation wouldn't even take them seriously as play-offs contenders...guess how non-Jets fans look at us with Fitz at QB...

and he still is better then Geno....

 

as for the Geno was better the 2nd half last year, well a trained monkey would have played better then Geno's first half last year.

[jgb]

Fitzpatrick isn't better than Geno, he just sucks less. That is what I take from this.

Tom-ay-to, tom-ah-to

[Mike135]

Fitz can "hold the fort?"  He had a 1600 total yard back in Foster last year and a top 7 defense and took those weapons to 6-6...he was also throwing to Hopkins and Andre Johnson who combined for 160 receptions and 2,000 yards receiving...

Fiutzpatrick has never won more than 6 games in a season...ever...and never had a winning record as a starting QB played...even when everything around him is perfect like last year, GREAT D, GREAT run game, and GREAT WRs...the best he could do is .500.

I think the best we can do with Fitz, is also .500, as our run game and oline will not be as good as what Fitz had last year, and he wont be facing the Jags and Titans 4 times this year either.

Hoping for better than 8-8 is folly, IMO, from a team led by Fitzpatrick at QB.  He's just not an NFL talent.  If the Patriots had Fitzpatrick at QB this year, jets Nation wouldn't even take them seriously as play-offs contenders...guess how non-Jets fans look at us with Fitz at QB...

Fitz can "hold the fort".  If by that you mean fill in for a few series when needed.  Or perhaps even a game or two MAX.  If we're playing a good team with Fitz as the starter, well that's pretty much a sure loss.  Regardless of how good our D may be, they'll eventually get exhausted after many 3/6 n outs.

Said it before and most likely say it again over the course of the season.

Fitz as a starter:  Horrible.  In the running for, if not the worst in the league.

Fitz as a backup in Gailey's system:  Great!  So long as it means he never has to start vs a decent team.

[#27TheDominator]

Fitz can "hold the fort".  If by that you mean fill in for a few series when needed.  Or perhaps even a game or two MAX.  If we're playing a good team with Fitz as the starter, well that's pretty much a sure loss.  Regardless of how good our D may be, they'll eventually get exhausted after many 3/6 n outs.

Said it before and most likely say it again over the course of the season.

Fitz as a starter:  Horrible.  In the running for, if not the worst in the league.

Fitz as a backup in Gailey's system:  Great!  So long as it means he never has to start vs a decent team.

So you think Fitzpatrick is great as a backup and spot starter, but now that he is forced to spot start you are mortified?  WTF, dude? 

[Beerfish]

Fitz can "hold the fort?"  He had a 1600 total yard back in Foster last year and a top 7 defense and took those weapons to 6-6...he was also throwing to Hopkins and Andre Johnson who combined for 160 receptions and 2,000 yards receiving...

Fiutzpatrick has never won more than 6 games in a season...ever...and never had a winning record as a starting QB played...even when everything around him is perfect like last year, GREAT D, GREAT run game, and GREAT WRs...the best he could do is .500.

I think the best we can do with Fitz, is also .500, as our run game and oline will not be as good as what Fitz had last year, and he wont be facing the Jags and Titans 4 times this year either.

Hoping for better than 8-8 is folly, IMO, from a team led by Fitzpatrick at QB.  He's just not an NFL talent.  If the Patriots had Fitzpatrick at QB this year, jets Nation wouldn't even take them seriously as play-offs contenders...guess how non-Jets fans look at us with Fitz at QB...

Well yeah hold the fort means 8-8, the jets had the top ranked running game last year and will have a solid D this year.  Hold the fort doesn't mean flourish, it means get half assed results while you wait for a real QB.

[Mike135]

So you think Fitzpatrick is great as a backup and spot starter, but now that he is forced to spot start you are mortified?  WTF, dude? 

This is more than a "spot starter" situation.  It could potentially be 6 games.

[Jetman55]

Yep.  Super easy.  Fitzpatrick > Geno. Thanks for the stats.

it just took 10 years more experience to be 1 INT better...guess that's all a Harvard grad can learn in 10 years...to be 1 INT better than Geno Smith.  Not much bang for your buck when you think of the price of WVU education vs Harvard...he must really suck!

[Jetman55]

Well yeah hold the fort means 8-8, the jets had the top ranked running game last year and will have a solid D this year.  Hold the fort doesn't mean flourish, it means get half assed results while you wait for a real QB.

pretty sure they were 3rd ranked run O, but I get what you're saying...

[Jetman55]

This is more than a "spot starter" situation.  It could potentially be 6 games.

the GM, daddy mac, in his presser last week repeated over and over again...4 weeks...wonder why that is?  Do we perhaps havea bye week, week 5?

Unless we are 3-1 or better, I'm guessing there are already plans to go back to Geno.  Not sure mmanagement is excited abut Ivory getting 150 receptions this year with Fitz at QB.

Those 5 punts against the 32nd ranked pass defense last week was a community college effort from Fitz.