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Fitz got an insanely high QBR of 91.4 against Miami


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Looking at ESPN's QBR rankings, its clear that they factor in how a QB uses his legs to get first downs as being a pretty big factor.  Right now Fitz is # 1 in the NFL in their "Run EPA" (EPA = Expected Points Added).  They estimate that Fitz's ability to extend drives by running has handed the team an extra "clutch weighted" 3.0 points per game, with Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater next in line at 2.2.

 

The problem with any stats over 4 games is you can have 1 or 2 plays skew more than that in the other direction. 

Not that this is the case with Fitz, but if a QB makes a terrible wobbly short throw, where an easy interception was instead tipped into his speedy receiver, and that receiver ran with it 50+ yards and scored a TD, the QB gets the same credit as a great QB who threw a 40-yard strike on a rope that was taken another 15 yards into the EZ. Over the course of a 16 game season (or a career), an outlier like that will be averaged in so it won't be overly significant. In 1 game, or even in 4 games, a single play where the ball merely bounces his way instead of the other way can result a huge difference in a QB's rank.

There's also rank and significant rank. I haven't looked at it, but even by year's end I often see an offense or defense ranked say #12 but meanwhile they're like a half a point per game from being ranked in the bottom half of teams. That "rank" could be fueled by 1 pile-on, meaningless TD in one blowout game. It doesn't help the team and doesn't mean they're any better. But it definitely helps the ranking. Now if a team had an offense ranked #12 and there was nearly a 3 ppg difference between them and the #18 offense, then there's likely a significant difference between the 2 teams.

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I'll take a top 15 QB after what we've had at the position for the previous 6 years. Gladly. 

Hes been consistantly getting our playmakers the ball.  Marshall and decker are having great season with fitz. hes also has avoided back breaking turnovers and is not coating us games. until petty i

Fitz puts up good stats:  "Throw all numbers out, can't be trusted." Fitz helps the Jets to a 3-1 start:  "A good QB like Geno Smith would have us 4-0". This is beyond comical.

there's something I think we all can agree on but this topic was about how high fitz's quarterback rating was not the team would defend him. 

See its important in this topic because it says that Fitz gives the team leadership, and that is just as important as the numbers he is putting up. 

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The problem with any stats over 4 games is you can have 1 or 2 plays skew more than that in the other direction. 

Not that this is the case with Fitz, but if a QB makes a terrible wobbly short throw, where an easy interception was instead tipped into his speedy receiver, and that receiver ran with it 50+ yards and scored a TD, the QB gets the same credit as a great QB who threw a 40-yard strike on a rope that was taken another 15 yards into the EZ. Over the course of a 16 game season (or a career), an outlier like that will be averaged in so it won't be overly significant. In 1 game, or even in 4 games, a single play where the ball merely bounces his way instead of the other way can result a huge difference in a QB's rank.

There's also rank and significant rank. I haven't looked at it, but even by year's end I often see an offense or defense ranked say #12 but meanwhile they're like a half a point per game from being ranked in the bottom half of teams. That "rank" could be fueled by 1 pile-on, meaningless TD in one blowout game. It doesn't help the team and doesn't mean they're any better. But it definitely helps the ranking. Now if a team had an offense ranked #12 and there was nearly a 3 ppg difference between them and the #18 offense, then there's likely a significant difference between the 2 teams.

All we have is the data in front of us.  And right now, Fitz is looking like an average or slightly below average passer and has a strength of knowing when to run, and doing so effectively.  This opposed to giving games away with pick-6's and fumbles.  Not ideal, not even good, but I'll take it.  You're right that we should wait to see what happens going forward (as has already been said a lot), but we also have 10+ years of data to go on with Fitz.  This type of play is about what he's done his whole career.  So I don't think the outlier plays that get "teased out" over time will make much of an impact on the data.

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See its important in this topic because it says that Fitz gives the team leadership, and that is just as important as the numbers he is putting up. 

Eric Decker has been photoed wearing a Fitzmagic shirt.  Marshall has had 3 straight 100-yard games, something we haven't seen since 1988.  The team is 3-1 and in good spirits.  Safe to say they support the guy.

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All we have is the data in front of us.  And right now, Fitz is looking like an average or slightly below average passer and has a strength of knowing when to run, and doing so effectively.  This opposed to giving games away with pick-6's and fumbles.  Not ideal, not even good, but I'll take it.  You're right that we should wait to see what happens going forward (as has already been said a lot), but we also have 10+ years of data to go on with Fitz.  This type of play is about what he's done his whole career.  So I don't think the outlier plays that get "teased out" over time will make much of an impact on the data.

No that's the point of why it's dumb. We do NOT only have "the data in front of us" -- we also have our eyes. A tipped pass off a defender's hands (should/could have been picked off) that pops up into his receiver's waiting arms is not as good a pass as one that would have hit that open receiver in stride in the first place. Yet the "data" treats them both the same.

Also any rank at this stage of the season is doubly meaningless as it presumes all opponents are the same, all pass protection is equal, all players have equal talent around them, all defensive coverage makes his job equally difficult, and all have equal play design guiding them; in short, despite the claim it does still mostly presume all situations are the same. Would Fitzpatrick have an 18 yard run if there was only a 10 yard window? No, but he would have likely done the same thing, just for fewer yards. It's ridiculous to cite it as anything meaningful. It also ignores missed receivers (wide open receivers he didn't throw to, in favor of one who is covered). They still count it as just an incomplete pass (or an interception). But it's very different to make that pass if everyone is covered and a QB has merely chosen the least of 3-4 evils. 

Lastly, this ranking system makes any good play he makes more magnified because he didn't make the plays that would have resulted in later ones being ultimately insignificant. What that means is by not attempting or making good throws on easy TD passes earlier, he played a big hand in causing a would-be blowout to be a close game. So this QBR therefore penalizes QBs who take care of business in favor of those who do not! It's bullsh*t, and it's particular bullsh*t over a 4 game span against 4 bad defenses (never mind a single game against a bad defense on a downbeat team in total disarray from top to bottom), while he had great protection. 

I'm happy we won, love that we're sitting at 3-1, and certainly am not pushing to rock the boat while it's afloat. But Fitz did a poor job of quarterbacking against Miami no matter what some automated stat formula spits out. 

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Eric Decker has been photoed wearing a Fitzmagic shirt.  Marshall has had 3 straight 100-yard games, something we haven't seen since 1988.  The team is 3-1 and in good spirits.  Safe to say they support the guy.

Used to think Jets were cursed. Now I believe many Jets fans curse themselves by always trying to find a reason to be pissed off.

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the guy that helped us reach 2 title games, why would I ever back him?

unfortunately all those things are subjective, there's no way anyone can watch that game Sunday and come out impressed w/ the way fitz played other than his few nice scrambles.

Once again you utterly fail to see the train from the tunnel about to hit you.  Either you are not bright or just want to avoid being viewed as being illogical or wrong.  I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you are the second one.

 

Sanchez, just an unbelievable amount of holes in his game, never threw for a high comp % or had a really good QBR, turned it over way too often and at the worst times, but two years when he had a top notch supporting unit makes him someone to be veined as a success.

Fitzpatrick, some holes in this game, but having some success and he is being essentially called a scrub by you.  Your arguments are totally inconsistent, but this is nothing new.

 

 

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I'm happy we won, love that we're sitting at 3-1, and certainly am not pushing to rock the boat while it's afloat. But Fitz did a poor job of quarterbacking against Miami no matter what some automated stat formula spits out. 

Poor as in what a standard QB would do?  OK, I can accept that.  Poor as in what a Jet QB would typically do?  Nope.

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Meh, he's lucky he doesnt have more.  He's thrown up more jump balls where either the defender or the receiver could come down with it over a 4 week period than I've ever seen from a QB.  Many of them, with no chance to make a play on the ball.  He literally cant stop throwing the ball up for grabs when there is one on one coverage.  It's like an automatic reaction.  

The guy is terrible.  But when you're used to the worst in the league, terrible works a little bit. 

I actually like that he's doing this.  Let his playmakers make plays...Keep the defense honest.  Yes, he has to connect on them more often, but as he gets to know his receivers he'll do a better job.  If he throws those balls a little deeper - they have a much better chance of being complete or a PI...(Eli has made a living off doing just this)

Even those INT's end up being like punts...long balls, little to no return.  As far as INT's go those are the ones you want.

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Fitz is a great locker room guy.  A family guy with an Ivy League education.  Doesn't get flustered.  Has an excellent sense of humor.  The vets obviously love him.  That has to count for something.  Comical how a big chunk of the fan base is calling for Bowles to allow the arrogant and incompetent ghetto child to lead this team.  

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He played well enough to score 27 points and win the game. He wasn't great (91 QBR does seem insanely high relative to how he played) but I don't think he played poorly at all. If you want to see "poor" QB play, I've got plenty of Geno and Sanchez highlights from the last four years.

And it's hilarious you think Sanchez "helped us" reach to AFCCG but you don't think Fitzpatrick has "helped us" reach 3-1. 

Fitz has helped but he's also helped to keep inferior teams in these games.

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ryan fitzpatrick is not a top 15 qb. Or even top 20. 

 

Lets look at the numbers

 


#29th in the league in quarterback rating (you know the one the nfl uses,not the qbr in the OP that is only recognized by espn)
#25th in yards per game
#3 in most ints
#26th in completition percentage
Tied for #28-30th in yards per attempt

 

These are indisputably bottom 5 qb numbers. This is who fitz is. Hes a bad qb with a weak arm who makes poor decisions with worse throws. We are winning inspite of him. 

 

 

And no,Im no saying geno would be better,he may be worse in fact. But ryan is 32 years old and is on the downside of a horrible career where hes had no success wherever he has been.

Can anyone verify these numbers?  They don't seem right to me.  Those are terrible, absolutely horrible numbers - especially with the all the rookies, second string and back-ups currently playing.

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All QBs (great and crappy) play better and worse in spurts. If we are going to use numbers, than let the numbers stand.  If he sucked in passed years (according the numbers) then it is okay to say he had a statistically good game (more importantly a win).

Great QBs make the receivers better.  But great receivers make average QBs better.  There are only a handful of QBs that are so good they make the WRs better.  More often than not, it is the great receivers (get open, make amazing catches, etc) that make the QB look good.  Consdider this, every one of OBJs great catches happened because Eli had a poor throw.  You can argue whether Eli is great or not, but he has 2 SB wins.  I will take one of those wins easy.

I don't think the Jets are SB ready, but my point is that the stats for teams and QBs should average out; if you have a great game, but got lucky, you still had a great game.  Can't pick and choose - if you live by the stats...

Also, I don't think that throwing the ball up is a 50/50 get lucky situation. The WR always should have the advantage and that is why you pay big money for a 6'5" WR that can go get catches.  That and the back shoulder throw are staples in today's NFL.

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the guy that helped us reach 2 title games, why would I ever back him?

unfortunately all those things are subjective, there's no way anyone can watch that game Sunday and come out impressed w/ the way fitz played other than his few nice scrambles.

here is a little something that you dont know about me since you werent around these forums then.  I fully supported sanchez, even through year 3. I made excuses that he hit his sophmore slump a year late and year 4 I still supported him.  By the end of year 4 it was obvious that he just didnt get it.  I gave the guy nearly 4 years because i saw flashes and yes he did help us in his first 2 years.  He is "not good" and no longer even servicable imo... Fitz is an upgrade, there is no doubt in my mind but to each their own.

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Fitz is a great locker room guy.  A family guy with an Ivy League education.  Doesn't get flustered.  Has an excellent sense of humor.  The vets obviously love him.  That has to count for something.  Comical how a big chunk of the fan base is calling for Bowles to allow the arrogant and incompetent ghetto child to lead this team.  

What does that mean?

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Trent was far better than Fitz, Trent had played in postseason before.  he was perfect for that great D in Bal, he limited TOs(something Fitz does not do) and made big plays.  he was vital to that run.  Fitz is NOT Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Eli Manning or any other mediocre QB that has won a  SB w/ great defense.

Your foam at the mouth anti-Fitzpatrick crusade is bizarre. It's obvious that you just want to be right about your predictions rather than see him perform well. 

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watch the games, if you think we can beat good teams w/ the way Fitz has played then have fun w/ that.

 

I didn't say we would be 4-0 w/ Geno, someone said we'd be 1-3.  I said there's a better chance are 4-0 than 1-3.  QB play has been way down on the list of reasons why we are 3-1.  the QB was a major reason for our only loss and kept Indy and Miami in games that should been major blowouts.

We'd be 0-4 with Geno.

Now go away.

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Eric Decker has been photoed wearing a Fitzmagic shirt.  Marshall has had 3 straight 100-yard games, something we haven't seen since 1988.  The team is 3-1 and in good spirits.  Safe to say they support the guy.

You're confusing not supporting him with not being critical of poor play. They are not the same thing.

The team around him is the best Jets roster we've seen in a long, long time. He hardly gets credit for that, nor is he deserving of extra credit for a healthy, HOF-caliber, game-changer WR simply being there (unless one wants to say Fitzpatrick is making Marshall a great receiver, despite us seeing repeated catches he's hauled in on poor throws).

And with the team supporting him neither I nor anyone actually in the position Bowles is in would make the fool move to switch to a (thus far) career failure because of #physicalupsideofgeno. If Fitzpatrick is injured or causing losses, and the team is starting to grumble about the QB giving away would-be wins, then that would be different. But that isn't the situation the 3-1 2015 Jets are in. No way you bench him now. No way. But we are still permitted to discuss bad things he did and don't need to sugarcoat bad play with a meaningless QBR stat that disproportionately rewards him later for his poor play earlier; poor earlier play (like not throwing to multiple, wide open receivers for easy TDs) that the system never adequately penalized him for in the first place.

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Eric Decker has been photoed wearing a Fitzmagic shirt.  Marshall has had 3 straight 100-yard games, something we haven't seen since 1988.  The team is 3-1 and in good spirits.  Safe to say they support the guy.

but he is not even good????

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You're confusing not supporting him with not being critical of poor play. They are not the same thing.

The team around him is the best Jets roster we've seen in a long, long time. He hardly gets credit for that, nor is he deserving of extra credit for a healthy, HOF-caliber, game-changer WR simply being there (unless one wants to say Fitzpatrick is making Marshall a great receiver, despite us seeing repeated catches he's hauled in on poor throws).

And with the team supporting him neither I nor anyone actually in the position Bowles is in would make the fool move to switch to a (thus far) career failure because of #physicalupsideofgeno. If Fitzpatrick is injured or causing losses, and the team is starting to grumble about the QB giving away would-be wins, then that would be different. But that isn't the situation the 3-1 2015 Jets are in. No way you bench him now. No way. But we are still permitted to discuss bad things he did and don't need to sugarcoat bad play with a meaningless QBR stat that disproportionately rewards him later for his poor play earlier; poor earlier play (like not throwing to multiple, wide open receivers for easy TDs) that the system never adequately penalized him for in the first place.

Is anyone actually saying Fitz is playing well though? 

Even this most staunch supporters of the guy, like 80 and me, are saying he's playing like poopie... but poopie is still better than Geno, if poopie means he's not keeping us from winning. 

For me, it's like this...

Fitz = some bad QB play that doesn't keep us from winning = hope.

Geno = some bad QB play that has historically kept us from winning = giving up on the season.

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Is anyone actually saying Fitz is playing well though? 

Even this most staunch supporters of the guy, like 80 and me, are saying he's playing like poopie... but poopie is still better than Geno, if poopie means he's not keeping us from winning. 

For me, it's like this...

Fitz = some bad QB play that doesn't keep us from winning = hope.

Geno = some bad QB play that has historically kept us from winning = giving up on the season.

Exactly.

But, that's a difficult concept for SAR Edwards to understand.

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Can anyone verify these numbers?  They don't seem right to me.  Those are terrible, absolutely horrible numbers - especially with the all the rookies, second string and back-ups currently playing.

if you go to espn.com then click on the nfl section,then go to stats you can see the numbers they are true. Once youre in the stats section you can click on each category and it organizes it for you and gives the ranking. 

 

Don't let peoples hatred for geno smith cloud what has been very poor qb play by fitzpatrick.

 

Also cracks me up when people keep mentioning how smart fitz is. If he so intelligent why does he force feed the ball to a double covered marshall repeatedly knowing he doesnt have the arm strength to be precise?

 

But I digress. Please do look up the numbers though,theyre very bad.

Edited by Prodigal Syndicate
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it means that poster is racist and using words like ghetto and thug are white peoples way of using the n word without using it,as thats what they really mean.

Supporting the white qb and i'm a racist, got it

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Is anyone actually saying Fitz is playing well though? 

Even this most staunch supporters of the guy, like 80 and me, are saying he's playing like poopie... but poopie is still better than Geno, if poopie means he's not keeping us from winning. 

For me, it's like this...

Fitz = some bad QB play that doesn't keep us from winning = hope.

Geno = some bad QB play that has historically kept us from winning = giving up on the season.

By this theory you're saying "Hope" is really all you want.  Because you must know Fitz doesn't have the skill set to win a Super Bowl...so just having hope in enough.  

I guess it's hard to blame any long suffering Jet fan for having that as a benchmark but I would prefer to take a real shot and fail.

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Can anyone verify these numbers?  They don't seem right to me.  Those are terrible, absolutely horrible numbers - especially with the all the rookies, second string and back-ups currently playing.

They're accurate. The INTs in the Eagles game really hurt his numbers, because he's posted pretty respectable numbers in the other three games.

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I actually like that he's doing this.  Let his playmakers make plays...Keep the defense honest.  Yes, he has to connect on them more often, but as he gets to know his receivers he'll do a better job.  If he throws those balls a little deeper - they have a much better chance of being complete or a PI...(Eli has made a living off doing just this)

Even those INT's end up being like punts...long balls, little to no return.  As far as INT's go those are the ones you want.

It's not a punt if he does it on 1st down.  And 99% of the time this season, it's been a wasted down, so I dont think its keeping any D honest.  Especially when you see his baloon ball in the air for 10 seconds on those throws.  And if half of those balls start getting picked off, I'm pretty confident you wont like that he's doing it anymore because the Jets will start losing ball games.  Eli can make a living out of it because he has a cannon.

 

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It's not a punt if he does it on 1st down.  And 99% of the time this season, it's been a wasted down, so I dont think its keeping any D honest.  Especially when you see his baloon ball in the air for 10 seconds on those throws.  And if half of those balls start getting picked off, I'm pretty confident you wont like that he's doing it anymore because the Jets will start losing ball games.  Eli can make a living out of it because he has a cannon.

 

What's 99% of 6?

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Supporting the white qb and i'm a racist, got it

You know exactly what you meant when you said ghetto child. Grow up. You had no reason to use that term except your own hatred. It wasnt necessary to use that phrase but you couldnt help it and now you want to spin it into something else because youve been called out.

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They're accurate. The INTs in the Eagles game really hurt his numbers, because he's posted pretty respectable numbers in the other three games.

These numbers should make this entire thread null and void.

Having these terrible numbers - with the offensive weapons he has, a top 5 defense, strong running game and huge +TO margin...under these circumstances, It's hard to imagine anyone's numbers being worse.

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You're confusing not supporting him with not being critical of poor play. They are not the same thing.

The team around him is the best Jets roster we've seen in a long, long time. He hardly gets credit for that, nor is he deserving of extra credit for a healthy, HOF-caliber, game-changer WR simply being there (unless one wants to say Fitzpatrick is making Marshall a great receiver, despite us seeing repeated catches he's hauled in on poor throws).

And with the team supporting him neither I nor anyone actually in the position Bowles is in would make the fool move to switch to a (thus far) career failure because of #physicalupsideofgeno. If Fitzpatrick is injured or causing losses, and the team is starting to grumble about the QB giving away would-be wins, then that would be different. But that isn't the situation the 3-1 2015 Jets are in. No way you bench him now. No way. But we are still permitted to discuss bad things he did and don't need to sugarcoat bad play with a meaningless QBR stat that disproportionately rewards him later for his poor play earlier; poor earlier play (like not throwing to multiple, wide open receivers for easy TDs) that the system never adequately penalized him for in the first place.

You're confusing verbosity with intelligence.

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You know exactly what you meant when you said ghetto child. Grow up. You had no reason to use that term except your own hatred. It wasnt necessary to use that phrase but you couldnt help it and now you want to spin it into something else because youve been called out.

Blow me

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