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For every developmental QB that pans out, there's 50 that fail.  If Mike Glennon ever works out somewhere, he'll be the only mid-round success from the 2013 draft, for instance.  That draft contained Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib and Tyler Wilson in the 4th round.

 

You can say the same thing about those "cant miss" prodigy's. 

Also, Im not caling Bercovici a developmental QB, thats someone elses words. 

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Too valuable as a punt returner.

The Jets will get back on track against the Dolphins. Too many losses lately. In the words of Mick, what are we waiting for? Let's go Jets.

EAD Shane, you moron

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You can say the same thing about those "cant miss" prodigy's. 

Only the media labels a guy a "can't miss".  By and large, early 1st round picks have worked out pretty well at QB.  In the past 20 years we've seen Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and a steadily improving Blake Bortles go in the top 5 picks.  Winston and Mariota aren't looking too bad so far either. 

Busts in that territory include Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford and RG3.  And among that group, how many were labeled "can't miss"?  Leaf and maybe Russell?  

So in that above group I count 9-10 successes and 10 big-time busts.  The ratio of success/fail is about 50 %, making it worth the risk IF there's a guy you feel great about.  I can't even find much fault with us when we traded up and drafted Mark Sanchez, despite his lack of experience at USC.  The much bigger problem was signing him to a contract extension.

In the middle rounds, your success rate is very low.  You might find a Derek Carr or Russell Wilson.  You also will find a lot of these types:  Rohan Davey, Chris Simms, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Kellen Clemens, Brodie Croyle, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Kevin O'Connell, John David Booty, Pat White, Stephen McGee, Jimmy Clausen, John Skelton, Mike Kafka, Ryan Mallett, etc etc etc.

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Only the media labels a guy a "can't miss".  By and large, early 1st round picks have worked out pretty well at QB.  In the past 20 years we've seen Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and a steadily improving Blake Bortles go in the top 5 picks.  Busts in that territory include Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Mark Sanchez and RG3.  And among that group, how many were labeled "can't miss"?  Leaf and maybe Russell?  

The ratio of success/fail is about 50 %, making it worth the risk IF there's a guy you feel great about.  I can't even find much fault with us when we traded up and drafted Mark Sanchez, despite his lack of experience at USC.  The much bigger problem was signing him to a contract extension.

If thats the case then only the media labels a guy a "developmental project". Everything you're saying here regarding the media im in agreement with, but it has nothing to do with Bercovici whatsoever. The bottomline is that the media and the league gets it wrong ALOT. 

Who would you rather have now, Bortles or Derek Carr? 

 

And speaking of that "about 50%" hit-or-miss in the 1st round the past 20 years, you're wrong on that one and I'll take the time to do the breakdown. I'll disregard last years class given that they were rookies. 

 

2013

EJ Manuel: Bust

2012

Andrew Luck (Cant Miss)

RG3 (Cant Miss): Bust

Ryan Tannehill: Mediocre/Average

Brandon Weeden: Bust

2011

Cam Newton 

Jake Locker: Bust

Blaine Gabbert: Bust

Christian Ponder: Bust

2010

Sam Bradford: Bust

Tim Tebow: Bust

2009

Matt Stafford: Borderline Above Average

Mark Sanchez: Bust

Josh Freeman: Bust

2008

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

2007

JaMarcus Russell: Bust

Brady Quinn: Bust

2006

Vince Young (Cant Miss) Bust

Matt Leinart (Cant Miss) Bust (Yes, teams and the media was clawing for him to come out from USC early and Matt Carol convinced him to stay at USC. 

Jay Cutler: Borderline

2005

Alex Smith: Bust for the 49ers

Aaron Rodgers: ELITE (Media didnt see it and neither did the 20+ teams that passed on him). 

Jason Campbell: Bust

 

So, excluding last years draft this is what your QB situation looks like the past 10 years. You have 1 QB on this list considered "Elite" that was drafted in the 1st round, and even he was overlooked by most of the league and Media. 

So out of a total of 24 QB's taken in the first round from 2005 to 2013, 16 of the 24 QB's are busts. That ratio comes out to a 66% chance that you actually draft a bust in the 1st round. 

And of the 24 1st round QB's listed, only 2 have gone to the SB (Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers). 

And of the 4 "Cant Miss" prospects, 3 were busts. 

 

 

Edited by Villain The Foe
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If thats the case then only the media labels a guy a "developmental project". Everything you're saying here regarding the media im in agreement with, but it has nothing to do with Bercovici whatsoever. The bottomline is that the media and the league gets it wrong ALOT. 

Who would you rather have now, Bortles or Derek Carr? 

 

And speaking of that "about 50%" hit-or-miss in the 1st round the past 20 years, you're wrong on that one and I'll take the time to do the breakdown. I'll disregard last years class given that they were rookies. 

 

2013

EJ Manuel: Bust

2012

Andrew Luck (Cant Miss)

RG3 (Cant Miss): Bust

Ryan Tannehill: Mediocre/Average

Brandon Weeden: Bust

2011

Cam Newton 

Jake Locker: Bust

Blaine Gabbert: Bust

Christian Ponder: Bust

2010

Sam Bradford: Bust

Tim Tebow: Bust

2009

Matt Stafford: Borderline Above Average

Mark Sanchez: Bust

Josh Freeman: Bust

2008

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

2007

JaMarcus Russell: Bust

Brady Quinn: Bust

2006

Vince Young (Cant Miss) Bust

Matt Leinart (Cant Miss) Bust (Yes, teams and the media was clawing for him to come out from USC early and Matt Carol convinced him to stay at USC. 

Jay Cutler: Borderline

2005

Alex Smith: Bust for the 49ers

Aaron Rodgers: ELITE (Media didnt see it and neither did the 20+ teams that passed on him). 

Jason Campbell: Bust

 

So, excluding last years draft this is what your QB situation looks like the past 10 years. You have 1 QB on this list considered "Elite" that was drafted in the 1st round, and even he was overlooked by most of the league and Media. 

So out of a total of 24 QB's taken in the first round from 2005 to 2013, 16 of the 24 QB's are busts. That ratio comes out to a 66% chance that you actually draft a bust in the 1st round. 

And of the 24 1st round QB's listed, only 2 have gone to the SB (Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers). 

And of the 4 "Cant Miss" prospects, 3 were busts. 

 

 

I only included top 5 picks because that's where the "Can't Miss" guys you were referring to are found exclusively.  No one drafts a QB at the back end of the 1st round expecting him to be a "Can't Miss" guy.  Not even middle 1st guys are in that category.  Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, for instance, were small school guys with high ceilings, but nothing close to "can't miss", and thus fell to the middle of the round.  Those guys are not labeled as can't miss nor are they developmental guys. 

If they fell to the mid-late 1st, that means the teams in most need of a QB only graded them to be guys they'd be interested in in Round 2 or just before the 2nd round via trade up.  Teams picking in the mid-late part of the 1st generally tend to think they already have a QB. 

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I only included top 5 picks because that's where the "Can't Miss" guys are found exclusively.  No one drafts a QB at the back end of the 1st round expecting him to be a "Can't Miss" guy.  Those guys are not labeled as can't miss nor are they developmental guys.  If they fell that far, that means the teams in most need of a QB only graded them to be guys they'd be interested in in Round 2 or just before the 2nd round via trade up.

Well, if you're going to skew this to your advantage then fine. Im looking at the 1st round in comparison to guys who are considered "developmental projects" by the media and the fans who like to regurgitate most of what they hear. 

You chimed in talking about "for every developmental guy", so on and so forth. If thats the case then the league/media should know who is certainly a developmental project, or at least a 1st round talent. 

To be getting it wrong almost 70% of the time shows that these guys jobs are similar to the weather man's job. No one is ever upset when they get it wrong lol. 

 

I like Bercovici, I'll stick to that. Cant wait for the Bears to get rid of Cutler so I can see how David Fales holds his own. Thats another late round guy that I felt was better than his draft position. No one knows, but skewing the situation to prove a point is nothing more than "skewing" lol. 

Edited by Villain The Foe
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Well, if you're going to skew this to your advantage then fine. Im looking at the 1st round in comparison to guys who are considered "developmental projects" by the media and the fans who like to regurgitate most of what they hear.

You set the goalposts when you stated that developmental guys tend to be a better bet than "can't miss" guys.  Your words.

I'll give you this though:  It's too early to be determining what the prospect pecking order will be.  April is a long ways away.

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You set the goalposts when you stated that developmental guys tend to be a better bet than "can't miss" guys.  Your words.

I'll give you this though:  It's too early to be determining what the prospect pecking order will be.  April is a long ways away.

I didnt call Bercovici a developmental prospect. I simply used the words that you guys presented, while disagreeing with the premise. 

 

All im saying is that 70% of the 1st round picks are busts. And of the 30% only 1 of of those 7 QB's were truly elite "cant miss" players (Aaron Rodgers) yet he wasnt even considered a "cant miss" prospect. lol. 

Im probably wrong, but from the top of my head the only "Cant Miss" prospect to be a truly "cant miss" was Peyton Manning. And even in that draft the media/teams got it only half right because the other "cant miss" went on to be arguably the biggest bust in NFL history. 

 

Sometimes you just have to sit to your gut. I like what Bercovici has brought to the table. I really didnt like ASU's option offense this year but he did his best under the circumstance. 

 

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I dont care about their real estate agent. Has nothing to do with the point im making. 

 

Every year these type QB's are supposed to be "the one", more often than not its the guy who is destined for the developmental role that ends up being a better choice. 

Until now.

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