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How we get in at 10-6


nico002
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I'm just pissed off we never get to play in a division as bad as the AFC South or NFC East.  And yes, I'm also pissed we lost those Buffalo and Houston games; win one of those and our playoff chances look significantly better.  But we can't do much about that now.

In the end I'll still be really happy with a 10-6 or 11-5 season whether we make the playoffs or not, because as crazy as it sounds, it may well mean we have the GM/HC/QB combo to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  You can't win 10 or 11 games one year and not be considered a dangerous team the following year.  A nice draft and a few sneaky pickups and who knows? 

Sure...but that's the problem.  Who knows?  We could go 4-12, I doubt it but you truly never know.  Sure would be nice to capitalize on this season when its going pretty damn well. 

And I dont think going 10-6 or 11-5 means any of those things you just claimed.  We've seen it before and it definitely didnt those times.  Herm, Mangini, Rex.  All had 10-11 win seasons.

If we make the playoffs, nobody wants anything to do with us... we'd be that "playing with house money" team. No pressure on us, because nobody expects anything from us... we could definitely make noise. 

That and they're a very talented Football team playing really good ball right now.  The no pressure is always nice but helps when your team is good. 

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This isnt the same team as last year so 4-12 is irrelevant.  This team, was 4-1.  78% of the time, those teams get into the playoffs.  The Jets are a top 10 team on offense and defense.  Every team in the league that can make that claim, are locks for the playoffs.  Missing the playoffs would be a failure.  I assure you, if you ask this team that question, they'd agree.

 

Then they should have beaten Buffalo or Houston.   I am resigned to the fact that the numbers wont fall our way.  Tie breaks etc..  I am hopeful however.

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Sadly, at 11-5 we still would have to worry.  We lose tiebreakers vs KC and Pitt if we're all at 11-5 so either one of those two teams need to lose a game. And if they don't, we'd need Denver or Cincy to lose at least 2 out 3.. And even with Denver and or Cincy at 11-5, I'm not sure whether we have either one of those tiebreakers.

How do we lose a tiebreaker to Pitt? They're currently 7th seed right now with the same record. Maybe im missing something here. Not sure. 

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This isnt the same team as last year so 4-12 is irrelevant.  This team, was 4-1.  78% of the time, those teams get into the playoffs.  The Jets are a top 10 team on offense and defense.  Every team in the league that can make that claim, are locks for the playoffs.  Missing the playoffs would be a failure.  I assure you, if you ask this team that question, they'd agree.

 

I will point you in the direction of Atlanta. 5-0 teams = 90% of the time make the playoffs.

And I don't think we are a top ten team in O and D. Before yesterday we were 11th in both ranks.

If it turned out that we had to go 12-4 to make the playoffs, then it's not a failure because this was not projected to be a 12 win team, even if we started 4-1

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How do we lose a tiebreaker to Pitt? They're currently 7th seed right now with the same record. Maybe im missing something here. Not sure. 

as of this moment we are the 6 seed b/c we have a better AFC record than Pitt b/c we have played more AFC games.  if both of us(and KC) win out and there is qa 3 way tie Pitt would get the spot over us based on next tiebreaker.  we'd tie w/ conf record and they'd win on common games.

common games btw us:

 

NE, Oak, Cle, Ind

we'd be 3-2, Pitt would be 4-1

 

 

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My gut instinct is that we go 10-6 and don't get in.

We don't technically control our destiny, but I think 11-5 will get us in. Chiefs or Steelers will drop one... But I don't think we beat the Pats.

If we don't, those are the breaks. It will likely lead to another call to overhaul the playoff system, as an 11-5 Chiefs team has to go on the road to play a garbage AFC South team and the Jets sit at home.

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- steelers lose two (Broncos, Johnny football)

Or

- Chiefs lose two (Johnny football, raiders)

Or 

broncos lose three (steelers, Bengals, Chargers)

 

The team that finishes 11-5 or 10-6 and misses the playoffs while the AFC south sends a lousy team in as the 4th seed should take the Tom Brady approach. Ignore anyone telling them their season is over and show up in Denver or Cincinnati and defiantly claim the seeding of their choice. If its the jets, we could chip in to bribe the Steelers pilot and have the flight diverted to Newark where buses wait to bring them to Jetlife stadium to get beat by the jets. That's doing things the Patriot way!!!

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This isnt the same team as last year so 4-12 is irrelevant.  This team, was 4-1.  78% of the time, those teams get into the playoffs.  The Jets are a top 10 team on offense and defense.  Every team in the league that can make that claim, are locks for the playoffs.  Missing the playoffs would be a failure.  I assure you, if you ask this team that question, they'd agree.

 

In this case you should be looking at teams final record, and not what % made the playoffs. 10-6 and no playoffs (if we do only lose 1 more) shouldn't be judged differently as 10-6 making the playoffs. Just because this year has more teams finishing strongly does not mean missing the playoffs is a failure. Your 4-1 78% statistic is probably skewed by teams making the playoffs at 10-6 and 9-7. 

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How do we lose a tiebreaker to Pitt? They're currently 7th seed right now with the same record. Maybe im missing something here. Not sure. 

For the Jets to get in at 10-6:

1. They need both Pittsburgh and KC to lose a game and the one loss for the Jets has to be Dallas.

2. They need Denver to lose out.

3. Pitt or KC loses 2 of their last 3.

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I'm resigned to the fact we're not getting in.  Which sucks and is real disappointment after that great start and how well they're playing right now.  I didnt expect playoffs this year but I sure did sitting at 4-1.  Shame too.  This team could make some noise in the playoffs. 

I thought the playoffs was way more likely than 11-5.  I would be pleasantly shocked if they make it to 11-5

The best hope might be if Cincinnati does not win another game.  They will have better conference record though, so we need 11 wins to get past them.

I don't think Pitt or KC is going to lose again.

 

We have to beat NE and Buff to get in, they will be killing them selves to stop us.

 

Going to be a fun bunch of games.

Are people really that high on KC?  I know they have been on a tear, but I watched some of that Charger game and I was not impressed.

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And I dont think going 10-6 or 11-5 means any of those things you just claimed.  We've seen it before and it definitely didnt those times.  Herm, Mangini, Rex.  All had 10-11 win seasons.

The GM and QB for Bowles is better than those guys had, admittedly. Tannenbaum was in "win-now" mode all the time, which he's doing again in Miami.  Mangini thought he was smarter than he was.  Idzik sucked.  Rex sucks.  Herm was a buffoon.  Bradway was a better scout than GM.  All of this ultimately fell on the shoulders of Woody Johnson. 

Woody did all the right things prior to making his hires this time around, so my hope is that Macc and Bowles won't prove to be idiots.  This regime seems to have the right idea about how you build a roster and coach them up.  I don't think we're going to see the kind of volatility like past regimes where we win 10 then go 4-12.  We hope. 

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I'll add that sometimes the WAY you play out a season even in a non-playoff year is important.  When we went 8-8 in 2013 we were outscored by over 90 points that year.  It was a fluke, but many thought it was a stepping stone to a better year.  What it really was was a 5-11 team that lucked itself into 3 wins, then went 4-12 the next year.

This isn't a "weak" 8-5 team.  We're +69 in net points.  The last time we've been this good was 2010, when we finished +63.  Problem was that team entered cap hell shortly after that season.  We are not going to be in cap hell next year.  Cut and restructure a few deals and we'll have about $25M in cap space with which to bring back some people we need AND add more talent.

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For the Jets to get in at 10-6:

1. They need both Pittsburgh and KC to lose a game and the one loss for the Jets has to be Dallas.

2. They need Denver to lose out.

3. Pitt or KC loses 2 of their last 3.

Are you sure about point 1? We get in if we're in a 3-way tie with Pit and KC at 10-6? But we don't get in if we're in a 3-way tie with Pit and KC at 11-5?

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Yeah maybe, but Sammy Watkins slaughtered them.  I don't think they are going to stand up the rest of the way.  Not that I think the Jets are so great, but I don't feel like the Chiefs are any better

Chiefs did everything they could to help the Chargers try to pull out that win.  I'm not all that worried about KC.  It wouldn't be the first Andy Reid team to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and won't be the last.

Steelers?  Legit as f*ck.  I've been operating under the assumption they'd make the playoffs all year.

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Yes. As long as the Jets one loss is to Dallas. If it is NE or Buffalo, Pitt and KC are in

Lose to Dallas and we don't deserve the playoffs really.  I know we said that about TJ Yates earlier in the season but the Texans are a significantly better team than Dallas is right now.  The Cowboys can't stop the run with 9 in the box and Cassel is even worse than Yates.

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Yes. As long as the Jets one loss is to Dallas. If it is NE or Buffalo, Pitt and KC are in

Yeah, you are right. I just checked it out. And actually, KC AND Pit don't BOTH need to be 10-6 ... we beat Pit in the tiebreaks at 10-6 regardless of where KC finishes (as long as our one loss is Dallas).

Edited by Gaffneycatch
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Yeah, you are right. I just checked it out. And actually, KC AND Pit don't need to be 10-6 ... we beat Pit in the tiebreaks at 10-6 regardless of where KC finishes (as long as our one loss is Dallas).

So if both the Jets and the Steelers lose next week, the Jets control their own destiny. Of course, if they win and Steelers lose, they control it too. Bottom line: Beat Dallas and pray

Edited by UnitedWhofans
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Yeah, you are right. I just checked it out. And actually, KC AND Pit don't BOTH need to be 10-6 ... we beat Pit in the tiebreaks at 10-6 regardless of where KC finishes (as long as our one loss is Dallas).

So, basically, if Denver beats Pit this week it makes the Dallas game meaningless. We need to beat the Patriots and the Bills regardless.

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It's big both ways. Because it creates two paths.

Jets can root for either team and it would create a route. Remember if Denver loses out and the Jets go 3-1, the Jets are in.

Yeah, I did know that about Denver. And I believe that we also beat them in a tiebreak at 11-5 (if KC wins out ... and if we're 11-5 and KC doesn't win out we're in anyway). So, either result creates a path, although the best result would still be Pit losing I believe. But the only path in if we lose to the Pats is Denver losing out ... or KC or PIT totally collapsing.

Edited by Gaffneycatch
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we still made the playoffs in 1986 and won a playoff game.  In 2008 we didn't even make the playoffs, 2008 was worse.

I see your point, but '86 felt worse to me.  Seemed like we had best team in the league the whole year....then the injuries and that fat jack*** making his proclamation.  Perhaps by the time '08 rolled around I was just more jaded so it wasn't much of a shock.

 

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So, basically, if Denver beats Pit this week it makes the Dallas game meaningless. We need to beat the Patriots and the Bills regardless.

How can it be meaningless? What if teams like the Steelers lose again? We could get in at 10-6 if the steelers lose 2 of their last 3. 

It's not meaningless. Want to go into the game against NE hot.

This is correct - if both Pitt and NYJ lose this weekend, we control our own destiny in the last two weeks. If both win, we don't.

Of course, best scenario is Pitt lose, Jets win. ;)

But we'd still have to beat NE and Buffalo either way (unless Pitt lose again). Hence why the Dallas game is pretty irrelevant as far as play-offs / tie breaker if Pitt lose.

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