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Where to find a Super Bowl QB in the draft


CanadaSteve
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Thought it would be interesting to do some research on this.

Of the 31 Qb's who have won a Super Bowl, 18 of them went in the 1st round (Namath, Dawson, Morrall, Griese, Bradshaw, Plunkett, McMahon, Simms, Williams, Hostetler, Young, Elway, Dilfer, Roethlisberger, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Aikman)

Of those 18, 7 of them were 1st overall draft picks (Namath, Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway, Manning, Manning, Aikman)

8 other 1st round Qb's played in, but never won, the Super Bowl (Morton, Marino, Eason, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, McNabb, Grossman)

1 of those who played in but never won was a 1st over all pick (Bledsoe)

7 more 1st overall Qb's who could still win a superbowl (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford, Smith, Newton, Luck, Winston)

7 more 1st round Qb's who are currently listed as starting Qb's (Tannehill, Manziel, Weeden, Bortles, Rivers, Cutler, Gabbert)

1 winner was UDA (Warner)

Lowest picked winner: 19th round (Starr)

SOOO......It has been discussed that Qb`s can be found in any round.  Everyone wishes they were drafting the next Tom Brady.  The facts say otherwise.  Super Bowls are mainly won by teams who draft the right QB in the first round.

We are all hoping Petty can do great things years from now.  However, that said, it might be good to look at Qb's over the next few drafts and see who could be available.  Meanwhile, we wait and hope Fitzmagic can add his name to the list of those not drafted in the 1st round who leads his team to victory.

 

 

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Thought it would be interesting to do some research on this.

Of the 31 Qb's who have won a Super Bowl, 18 of them went in the 1st round (Namath, Dawson, Morrall, Griese, Bradshaw, Plunkett, McMahon, Simms, Williams, Hostetler, Young, Elway, Dilfer, Roethlisberger, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Aikman)

Of those 18, 7 of them were 1st overall draft picks (Namath, Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway, Manning, Manning, Aikman)

8 other 1st round Qb's played in, but never won, the Super Bowl (Morton, Marino, Eason, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, McNabb, Grossman)

1 of those who played in but never won was a 1st over all pick (Bledsoe)

7 more 1st overall Qb's who could still win a superbowl (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford, Smith, Newton, Luck, Winston)

7 more 1st round Qb's who are currently listed as starting Qb's (Tannehill, Manziel, Weeden, Bortles, Rivers, Cutler, Gabbert)

1 winner was UDA (Warner)

Lowest picked winner: 19th round (Starr)

SOOO......It has been discussed that Qb`s can be found in any round.  Everyone wishes they were drafting the next Tom Brady.  The facts say otherwise.  Super Bowls are mainly won by teams who draft the right QB in the first round.

We are all hoping Petty can do great things years from now.  However, that said, it might be good to look at Qb's over the next few drafts and see who could be available.  Meanwhile, we wait and hope Fitzmagic can add his name to the list of those not drafted in the 1st round who leads his team to victory.

 

 

Teams win SB's not QB's

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Teams win SB's not QB's

Lol, and people are inherently good.

 

Meanwhile, back in reality...

 

@CanadaSteve; i've slapped a handful of similar threads together in the past - plotting out the success rate of QBs both in and out of the 1st. It's scary stuff. By virtue of making the playoffs - we're not likely going to find ourselves in a position to get "The Guy" in next years draft. It's possible the right one falls to us, but i doubt. F.O. needs to want it bad enough to go after the guy they like. Waiting around for the Pettys of the league to blossum isn't a fruitful investment of time/resources. 

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Lol, and people are inherently good.

 

Meanwhile, back in reality...

 

@CanadaSteve; i've slapped a handful of similar threads together in the past - plotting out the success rate of QBs both in and out of the 1st. It's scary stuff. By virtue of making the playoffs - we're not likely going to find ourselves in a position to get "The Guy" in next years draft. It's possible the right one falls to us, but i doubt. F.O. needs to want it bad enough to go after the guy they like. Waiting around for the Pettys of the league to blossum isn't a fruitful investment of time/resources. 

you seriously going to argue that point ?

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Thought it would be interesting to do some research on this.

Of the 31 Qb's who have won a Super Bowl, 18 of them went in the 1st round (Namath, Dawson, Morrall, Griese, Bradshaw, Plunkett, McMahon, Simms, Williams, Hostetler, Young, Elway, Dilfer, Roethlisberger, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Aikman)

Of those 18, 7 of them were 1st overall draft picks (Namath, Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway, Manning, Manning, Aikman)

8 other 1st round Qb's played in, but never won, the Super Bowl (Morton, Marino, Eason, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, McNabb, Grossman)

1 of those who played in but never won was a 1st over all pick (Bledsoe)

7 more 1st overall Qb's who could still win a superbowl (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford, Smith, Newton, Luck, Winston)

7 more 1st round Qb's who are currently listed as starting Qb's (Tannehill, Manziel, Weeden, Bortles, Rivers, Cutler, Gabbert)

1 winner was UDA (Warner)

Lowest picked winner: 19th round (Starr)

SOOO......It has been discussed that Qb`s can be found in any round.  Everyone wishes they were drafting the next Tom Brady.  The facts say otherwise.  Super Bowls are mainly won by teams who draft the right QB in the first round.

We are all hoping Petty can do great things years from now.  However, that said, it might be good to look at Qb's over the next few drafts and see who could be available.  Meanwhile, we wait and hope Fitzmagic can add his name to the list of those not drafted in the 1st round who leads his team to victory.

 

 

are you pro or anti John Idzik?

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Eh.  The last two super bowl winners have been a 6th rounder and a 3rd rounder.  Flacco was 18 overall,  Rodgers 24 overall.  Brees and Kaepernick were 2nd rounders. Roethlisberger as 11th overall (and 3rd QB taken) and Grossman 22nd.  In the last decade, the Manning brothers are literally the only #1 overall guys to be in the super bowl.  Going back to Knute Rockne doesn't tell the full story. 

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So the strategy should be draft a QB in the first round every year? Right? No? Yes? Maybe?

Until you find one, and if you feel the right QB is sitting there....why not?  Nothing transforms a franchise more than a franchise QB.  Nothing.  Not a great HC hire, nor a JJ Watt, nor an Adrian Peterson. 

Once you have one, then you can commence building around him.  You don't need an elite QB, mind you.  Just a QB who has the ability to sneak you into the postseason and elevate his play once he gets there.  Easier said than done, but it doesn't require having the first overall pick to find one of those.

The biggest problem with this philosophy is pragmatism:  GM's are risk-aversive unless they have a lengthy leash after years of success.  It's easy to keep your job if you draft a CB in the first and he busts.  Draft a bust QB in the 1st?  Roughly 99 % of the time that gets a relatively new GM fired.

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Thought it would be interesting to do some research on this.

Of the 31 Qb's who have won a Super Bowl, 18 of them went in the 1st round (Namath, Dawson, Morrall, Griese, Bradshaw, Plunkett, McMahon, Simms, Williams, Hostetler, Young, Elway, Dilfer, Roethlisberger, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Aikman)

Of those 18, 7 of them were 1st overall draft picks (Namath, Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway, Manning, Manning, Aikman)

8 other 1st round Qb's played in, but never won, the Super Bowl (Morton, Marino, Eason, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, McNabb, Grossman)

1 of those who played in but never won was a 1st over all pick (Bledsoe)

7 more 1st overall Qb's who could still win a superbowl (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford, Smith, Newton, Luck, Winston)

7 more 1st round Qb's who are currently listed as starting Qb's (Tannehill, Manziel, Weeden, Bortles, Rivers, Cutler, Gabbert)

1 winner was UDA (Warner)

Lowest picked winner: 19th round (Starr)

SOOO......It has been discussed that Qb`s can be found in any round.  Everyone wishes they were drafting the next Tom Brady.  The facts say otherwise.  Super Bowls are mainly won by teams who draft the right QB in the first round.

We are all hoping Petty can do great things years from now.  However, that said, it might be good to look at Qb's over the next few drafts and see who could be available.  Meanwhile, we wait and hope Fitzmagic can add his name to the list of those not drafted in the 1st round who leads his team to victory.

 

 

Mariota

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Those draft positions are a bit misleading.  Namath was 1st pick in the AFL, but the 12th pick in the '65 NFL draft.  The immortal Craig Morton was 5th overall.  Morton lost a super bowl with the Cowboys, then lost his job in a bizarre QB battle with Staubach.  He was traded to the Giants for a 1st and 2nd.  He sucked in NY and was traded to Denver for a 5th and some stiff and lost another super bowl - to the Cowboys.  Dawson was a first round pick, but he was traded and released before he ended up with the Chiefs.  A bunch of those guys were first rounders that didn't make the super bowl with the team that drafted them.  Young, Williams and Dilfer were all drafted by the Bucs, who played Vikings 9th rounder Brad Johnson when they won their super bowl.  Johnson had been traded to the Redskins and cut.  Plunkett was drafted by the Pats.  Brees was a 2nd rounder, not a 1st and he drafted by SD, not NO.  Morrall was 2nd overall but on his 5th team before he got to a title game. 

Sure most super bowl QBs were first rounders.  They are talented, but I don't think the majority were with the team that drafted them.  That is even conceding the draft shenanigans that got Eli and Elway traded - they were drafted by other teams, but traded before they played a down.

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i seriously just did. 

well you have a lot to learn because if you look at the history of all the great QB's of our time or even the past 10 years NOT ONE of them did it on their own not even close. Brees won his with the top running game and a top defense, Rodgers did the same, Brady had his early run of SB's with a top defense now that his defense is playing well again he won another SB last year, Wilson has the luxury of a top running game and defense, Carson Palmer Defense and a load of WR's, Peyton Manning the one year he won it his defense stepped it up a bit and shut down the run during the playoffs after giving up historical highs in that dept. These are all great QB's but they can't do it alone. You can even have an all time great like Dan Marino and not win 1 SB and there are others like him like Idiot Dan Fouts.

It takes a team not just a QB ...If you put any of those greats I mentioned on the Jets when we had Clyde Gates and Chaz Shilins at the WR position and a broken down Shonn Greene at RB you think they put up even close to the hall of fame numbers we are used too ?> How do you think the Jets went to 2 straight AFCCG's ?? Because of mark Sanchez ??? I think not

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well you have a lot to learn because if you look at the history of all the great QB's of our time or even the past 10 years NOT ONE of them did it on their own not even close. Brees won his with the top running game and a top defense, Rodgers did the same, Brady had his early run of SB's with a top defense now that his defense is playing well again he won another SB last year, Wilson has the luxury of a top running game and defense, Carson Palmer Defense and a load of WR's, Peyton Manning the one year he won it his defense stepped it up a bit and shut down the run during the playoffs after giving up historical highs in that dept. These are all great QB's but they can't do it alone. You can even have an all time great like Dan Marino and not win 1 SB and there are others like him like Idiot Dan Fouts.

It takes a team not just a QB ...If you put any of those greats I mentioned on the Jets when we had Clyde Gates and Chaz Shilins at the WR position and a broken down Shonn Greene at RB you think they put up even close to the hall of fame numbers we are used too ?> How do you think the Jets went to 2 straight AFCCG's ?? Because of mark Sanchez ??? I think not

Somebody else wanna take this one? 

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Thought it would be interesting to do some research on this.

Of the 31 Qb's who have won a Super Bowl, 18 of them went in the 1st round (Namath, Dawson, Morrall, Griese, Bradshaw, Plunkett, McMahon, Simms, Williams, Hostetler, Young, Elway, Dilfer, Roethlisberger, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Aikman)

Of those 18, 7 of them were 1st overall draft picks (Namath, Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway, Manning, Manning, Aikman)

8 other 1st round Qb's played in, but never won, the Super Bowl (Morton, Marino, Eason, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, McNabb, Grossman)

1 of those who played in but never won was a 1st over all pick (Bledsoe)

7 more 1st overall Qb's who could still win a superbowl (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford, Smith, Newton, Luck, Winston)

7 more 1st round Qb's who are currently listed as starting Qb's (Tannehill, Manziel, Weeden, Bortles, Rivers, Cutler, Gabbert)

1 winner was UDA (Warner)

Lowest picked winner: 19th round (Starr)

SOOO......It has been discussed that Qb`s can be found in any round.  Everyone wishes they were drafting the next Tom Brady.  The facts say otherwise.  Super Bowls are mainly won by teams who draft the right QB in the first round.

We are all hoping Petty can do great things years from now.  However, that said, it might be good to look at Qb's over the next few drafts and see who could be available.  Meanwhile, we wait and hope Fitzmagic can add his name to the list of those not drafted in the 1st round who leads his team to victory.

 

I did some research and determined that if we want to potentially draft the greatest QB of all time we should pick a QB in either the 3rd or 6th round and from either Notre Dame or Michigan. 

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I did some research and determined that if we want to potentially draft the greatest QB of all time we should pick a QB in either the 3rd or 6th round and from either Notre Dame or Michigan. 

Thing that surprised me was how many of those guys went to Purdue - Dawson, Griese, and Brees.  They make a claim on their website to be Quarterback U, but make no claim to Jeff George!

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18/31 = 58%, meh. 

 

No mention of Joe Montana anywhere. 

 

Development is very overlooked nowadays. The GMs were handed a gift when the rookie salary cap was implemented. No longer did they HAVE to play the high round rookie QBs due to asset management, salary allocation, what have you. 

 

Sadly, they (outside of GB) didn't use that gift. 

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18/31 = 58%, meh. 

 

No mention of Joe Montana anywhere. 

 

Development is very overlooked nowadays. The GMs were handed a gift when the rookie salary cap was implemented. No longer did they HAVE to play the high round rookie QBs due to asset management, salary allocation, what have you. 

 

Sadly, they (outside of GB) didn't use that gift. 

How does Green Bay use the "gift" of the rookie salary scale to develop high round QBs?  They have only drafted two since the scale went into effect - 5th rounder Brett Hundley and 7th rounder BJ Coleman.  In that same span the Jets have drafted Petty, Boyd, Geno and McElroy.  I think lost in the draft a QB every year and develop them bullsh*t is that you simply can't develop guys if you have to turn them over that often.  Most teams are carrying 2 or 3 QBs.  That means by camp of 2017 the latest you would have to make up your mind on Petty.

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well you have a lot to learn because if you look at the history of all the great QB's of our time or even the past 10 years NOT ONE of them did it on their own not even close. Brees won his with the top running game and a top defense, Rodgers did the same, Brady had his early run of SB's with a top defense now that his defense is playing well again he won another SB last year, Wilson has the luxury of a top running game and defense, Carson Palmer Defense and a load of WR's, Peyton Manning the one year he won it his defense stepped it up a bit and shut down the run during the playoffs after giving up historical highs in that dept. These are all great QB's but they can't do it alone. You can even have an all time great like Dan Marino and not win 1 SB and there are others like him like Idiot Dan Fouts.

It takes a team not just a QB ...If you put any of those greats I mentioned on the Jets when we had Clyde Gates and Chaz Shilins at the WR position and a broken down Shonn Greene at RB you think they put up even close to the hall of fame numbers we are used too ?> How do you think the Jets went to 2 straight AFCCG's ?? Because of mark Sanchez ??? I think not

It's really both. Elite QBs win Super Bowls in the years they have balanced teams. 

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How does Green Bay use the "gift" of the rookie salary scale to develop high round QBs?  They have only drafted two since the scale went into effect - 5th rounder Brett Hundley and 7th rounder BJ Coleman.  In that same span the Jets have drafted Petty, Boyd, Geno and McElroy.  I think lost in the draft a QB every year and develop them bullsh*t is that you simply can't develop guys if you have to turn them over that often.  Most teams are carrying 2 or 3 QBs.  That means by camp of 2017 the latest you would have to make up your mind on Petty.

Youre right, I was off a few years on that. Still, he was making 2.3 and 3.3 his first 2 years. Not chump change, buy not what Bradford was getting a few years later. 

 

I'm not advocating for drafting a QB every year. But putting more than 'I hope he's ready' into a guy might be worth it. 

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So you're saying that more than half of the really good QBs were good enough to be drafted early...Shocking

I'll bet 1st round QBs get a lot more attention, chances, and starts as well.

I'd bet that more than 58% of all starting QBs were 1st round picks. If you look at it that way then non first round picks that are starters have a greater chance to win a SB. 

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I am the last guy to advocate the QB only philosophy, but the Saints defense flat out sucked and their run game was a function of their pass offense.

They didn't flat out suck they did give up some yards but they were mostly garbage time yards due to big early leads because the Saints were scoring big in the first half. Secondly I think the had a bunch of pro bowlers from that defense one being Darren Sharper who played out of his mind that year. Besides the garbage time yards they gave up they caused a sh*t load of turnovers 39 . Trust me with out that defense they win nothing that year since they ate up Peyton Manning in the SB as well. Also If I remember correctly they were tops in the league in the running game and their RB's caught like 150 passes that season as well.

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They didn't flat out suck they did give up some yards but they were mostly garbage time yards due to big early leads because the Saints were scoring big in the first half. Secondly I think the had a bunch of pro bowlers from that defense one being Darren Sharper who played out of his mind that year. Besides the garbage time yards they gave up they caused a sh*t load of turnovers 39 . Trust me with out that defense they win nothing that year since they ate up Peyton Manning in the SB as well. Also If I remember correctly they were tops in the league in the running game and their RB's caught like 150 passes that season as well.

Manning had like 350. 

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Mediocre QBsWin Super Bowls too. Brad Johnson, Trent dilfer , Doug Williams, Eli manning,Jim plunkett ,  etc. teams win games. Peyton manning is statistically the best to play the game.  But yet only one win in the big game.  His goofy little brother got lucky twice.  

Joe Namath, while a different era, did not throw a pass in the 4 th qtr vs the colts.  He was MVP because he called every play.  Those days are gone.  My point is a good QB is needed, not all world. 

Brady won last year because of a stupid play call.  Yes I'd love to have a Luck, Brees or Rodgers.  But a Fitz with a D and 15/87 WR Corp can get the job done . 

LETS GO JETS!

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well you have a lot to learn because if you look at the history of all the great QB's of our time or even the past 10 years NOT ONE of them did it on their own not even close. Brees won his with the top running game and a top defense, Rodgers did the same, Brady had his early run of SB's with a top defense now that his defense is playing well again he won another SB last year, Wilson has the luxury of a top running game and defense, Carson Palmer Defense and a load of WR's, Peyton Manning the one year he won it his defense stepped it up a bit and shut down the run during the playoffs after giving up historical highs in that dept. These are all great QB's but they can't do it alone. You can even have an all time great like Dan Marino and not win 1 SB and there are others like him like Idiot Dan Fouts.

It takes a team not just a QB ...If you put any of those greats I mentioned on the Jets when we had Clyde Gates and Chaz Shilins at the WR position and a broken down Shonn Greene at RB you think they put up even close to the hall of fame numbers we are used too ?> How do you think the Jets went to 2 straight AFCCG's ?? Because of mark Sanchez ??? I think not

Why is it so hard to acknowledge that the QB is the most important position on a team, and to find a good one the facts show that Super Bowl winning teams (winners and losers) find their QB in the first round?  Nobody is saying it isn't a team sport, but the most important position is the QB.

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