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Where to find a Super Bowl QB in the draft


CanadaSteve
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So you're saying that more than half of the really good QBs were good enough to be drafted early...Shocking

I'll bet 1st round QBs get a lot more attention, chances, and starts as well.

I'd bet that more than 58% of all starting QBs were 1st round picks. If you look at it that way then non first round picks that are starters have a greater chance to win a SB. 

Right....so what's the issue? 

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Why is it so hard to acknowledge that the QB is the most important position on a team, and to find a good one the facts show that Super Bowl winning teams (winners and losers) find their QB in the first round?  Nobody is saying it isn't a team sport, but the most important position is the QB.

Its not hard to acknowledge at all, the QB IS the most important position on the team BY FAR but that's not what I'm trying to say here. So I'm not sure why your asking me that question. What I have been trying to say is a QB can't do it alone , you take a guy like Aaron Rodgers and put him on the worst team in the NFL, a team that's in total disarray, and they do not become a SB contender over night. Sure Rodgers is the most important player from every stand point but he's not everything and he's not going to contend in that situation without a ton of changes.

That being said show me where I said the QB is not the most important player on the field.

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@Paradis

IF Papa Luck forces his son out of Indy this offseason do you give away the farm for him?  Sheldon, 2 1st rounders, Petty, and probably more?

Never happen. Not in a zillion years... but if it did, then we'd have competition for his services from everyone under the sun, including the moon. CLE would probably offer them their 1st round pick for the next 10 years. (and why not).

 

so champions can come from anywhere but the odds are greater the earlier they are drafted. have you written your Pulitzer acceptance speech yet?

You're making a case for your own award - most self-righteous poster on the board. Conflict follows you around too steadily. Maybe step off the soap box from time to time? 

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that's correct and it shows just how difficult it is to actually win a SB since so many great QB's never got one at all.

Are you sure you're not a robot? 

QBs win superbowls. That's why they get all the money, draft accolades, attention etc etc. Today's salary cap era allows 70%+ of the teams in the NFL to remain aptly competitive with each other - coaching notwithstanding. QBs are the reason most of the teams are able to get over the hump and win a SB. Tom Brady couldn't save SF this year, but he could be the reason any one of the playoff bound teams win. 

There's a statistically significant correlation between QB play (and draft pedigree) and teams winning. Everyone knows it starts with the QB. There's about 6 QBs who account for 50% of all conference championship & Superbowl games over the last 15 years... Most of of them come from the 1st rnd sauf 2 outliers (Warner & Brady) 

 

The formula is pretty simple - QB in the first = increase in chances of appearing in a superbowl.

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Never happen. Not in a zillion years... but if it did, then we'd have competition for his services from everyone under the sun, including the moon. CLE would probably offer them their 1st round pick for the next 10 years. (and why not).

 

You're making a case for your own award - most self-righteous poster on the board. Conflict follows you around too steadily. Maybe step off the soap box from time to time? 

you have to understand thou if Papa Luck can force his son out of there then you better believe he will also have a say in where he is going so any1 is in play the best offer won't win.

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Are you sure you're not a robot? 

QBs win superbowls. That's why they get all the money, draft accolades, attention etc etc. Today's salary cap era allows 70%+ of the teams in the NFL to remain aptly competitive with each other - coaching notwithstanding. QBs are the reason most of the teams are able to get over the hump and win a SB. Tom Brady couldn't save SF this year, but he could be the reason any one of the playoff bound teams win. 

There's a statistically significant correlation between QB play (and draft pedigree) and teams winning. Everyone knows it starts with the QB. There's about 6 QBs who account for 50% of all conference championship & Superbowl games over the last 15 years... Most of of them come from the 1st rnd sauf 2 outliers (Warner & Brady) 

 

The formula is pretty simple - QB in the first = increase in chances of appearing in a superbowl.

your tunnel vision is getting annoying. read my posts then reply apparently you read what you want then respond. I'm well aware of the importance of the QB that has never been in question yet you choose to say things that completely go off the topic I'm discussing.

Having a QB is important no doubt , he is the most important player on any team but he DOES NOT make everything happen and he does not singlehandedly win games. It takes a team effort no matter how good said QB may be.

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We were discussing cardale jones as a big time NFL prospect at around this time last year. His draft value has fallen from a potential first rounder to maybe a 4th or 5th rounder. Lots of depth in this QB class, unlike last year. He plans on declaring for the draft, so this could be a huge opportunity. 

He has the physical make-up of an NFL player and he could thrill the members of this forum with his deep ball. 

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so champions can come from anywhere but the odds are greater the earlier they are drafted. have you written your Pulitzer acceptance speech yet?

Let me help....

The vast majority of QB's who have played in the Super Bowl have come from the first round.  Better?

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Right....so what's the issue? 

I guess the question is - were you proposing a draft strategy, like we should draft a QB in round 1 (no matter what)?

If so, maybe you should look at what fraction of teams in the playoffs drafted their QB in round 1.  Chiefs, no (not by them).  Texans, no.  Steelers, yes.  Bengals, no (Dalton was a 2nd round pick).  Seahawks, no.  Vikings, yes.  Packers, yes (though after being groomed for awhile).  Redskins...  no for who's starting.  Pats, no.  Panthers, yes.  Broncos, no (not by them).  Cardinals, no (not by them).

So by my count, only 4 out of 12 drafted their starting QB in round 1.  I think 4 drafted them not-in-round-1 (Dalton, Wilson, Cousins, Brady). 

If you look at not-starting QBs drafted by the playoff teams in the 1st round, you have not a lot of gold:

KC: last one was Blackledge in 1983, that was a waste.
Texans: David Carr in 2002, certainly didn't help them.
Bengals:  They drafted Carson Palmer at 1 overall, a no-brainer.  But he only played in 2 playoff games for the Bengals - both losses.
Redskins:  Obviously RG3 was something they'd love to take back.
Broncos:  TEBOW!!!!
Cardinals:  Matt Leinart!!


 

 

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Let me help....

The vast majority of QB's who have played in the Super Bowl have come from the first round.  Better?

I guess another point is - a lot of them were 1st overall picks (often in years when there was a can't-miss QB prospect).  So, you could also say that "people who win the lottery tend to be rich".  Too bad the Jets can't choose to win the lottery...

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Are you sure you're not a robot? 

QBs win superbowls. That's why they get all the money, draft accolades, attention etc etc. Today's salary cap era allows 70%+ of the teams in the NFL to remain aptly competitive with each other - coaching notwithstanding. QBs are the reason most of the teams are able to get over the hump and win a SB. Tom Brady couldn't save SF this year, but he could be the reason any one of the playoff bound teams win. 

There's a statistically significant correlation between QB play (and draft pedigree) and teams winning. Everyone knows it starts with the QB. There's about 6 QBs who account for 50% of all conference championship & Superbowl games over the last 15 years... Most of of them come from the 1st rnd sauf 2 outliers (Warner & Brady) 

 

The formula is pretty simple - QB in the first = increase in chances of appearing in a superbowl.

True you have Brady, Warner,Wilson and Bree's the only none 1st rd picks..

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