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[Lizard King]

How much does the stock market impact real-estate?  I've been looking to buy and feel like a boob because I missed the window when everything was dirt cheap a few years back.  It's starting to come around again and prices have heightened in my area and now I'm gun shy because they seem outrageously high in comparison and this whole recession talk makes me nervous.

 

 

If things tank in stocks, and I think they will, it'll have an enormous effect on mortgage pricing for a few reasons.  First of all, right now, if mortgage rates never went any lower, this would still be the most attractive time to borrow money in this country's history. However, I think they will go lower one more time for the following reasons... The biggest is that long dated US Treasury yields will drop as a response to declining stock market behavior, and the mortgage rates that are tied to them will also drop (some banks will be more generous than others, depending on their capital base - I would definitely shop around) . Then obviously the benefits from lower mortgage pricing will allow for a more comfortable mortgage payment. I'm in the "rates are due to normalize" camp but not until we get this last push down on rates.  

If I were looking for a moderately priced starter home, or wanted to build a portfolio of rental real estate of the same type of single or multi-family homes, I'd be using the opportunity to buy cheaply and then hold the property and let tenants pay it off. If you're a 1st time homebuyer you can also take advantage of FHA with PMI, which in retrospect 10 years from now will still look like a steal compared to rates in the future.

I think that the government has created an artificial bubble again in real estate to some degree, but in high-end real estate. I think given the poor economic situation for the majority of working Americans, there is not enough ability of most people (outside of major metropolitan areas - NY/DC/LA) in "normal" real estate markets to take advantage of what essentially is a government-sponsored real-estate buying program. Also, since they can't afford real estate and most people in their 30's are now carrying student debt greater than the average mortgage, we've created a generation of renters for decades to come. If you can, search out properties near major urban areas or walkable distances to major downtowns and employment. The millenials are staying closer to cities. 

When rates do normalize, you may actually see a spree of "can't miss it now" first time homebuyers push values up a little further. At some point, it'll cool but probably still to the positive. Real estate long term has been one of the best performing assets classes of all time. Don't even get me started on the tax benefits.

Does that help?

[JustInFudge]

If things tank in stocks, and I think they will, it'll have an enormous effect on mortgage pricing for a few reasons.  First of all, right now, if mortgage rates never went any lower, this would still be the most attractive time to borrow money in this country's history. However, I think they will go lower one more time for the following reasons... The biggest is that long dated US Treasury yields will drop as a response to declining stock market behavior, and the mortgage rates that are tied to them will also drop (some banks will be more generous than others, depending on their capital base - I would definitely shop around) . Then obviously the benefits from lower mortgage pricing will allow for a more comfortable mortgage payment. I'm in the "rates are due to normalize" camp but not until we get this last push down on rates.  

If I were looking for a moderately priced starter home, or wanted to build a portfolio of rental real estate of the same type of single or multi-family homes, I'd be using the opportunity to buy cheaply and then hold the property and let tenants pay it off. If you're a 1st time homebuyer you can also take advantage of FHA with PMI, which in retrospect 10 years from now will still look like a steal compared to rates in the future.

I think that the government has created an artificial bubble again in real estate to some degree, but in high-end real estate. I think given the poor economic situation for the majority of working Americans, there is not enough ability of most people (outside of major metropolitan areas - NY/DC/LA) in "normal" real estate markets to take advantage of what essentially is a government-sponsored real-estate buying program. Also, since they can't afford real estate and most people in their 30's are now carrying student debt greater than the average mortgage, we've created a generation of renters for decades to come.

When rates do normalize, you may actually see a spree of "can't miss it now" first time homebuyers push values up a little further. At some point, it'll cool but probably still to the positive. Real estate long term has been one of the best performing assets classes of all time. Don't even get me started on the tax benefits.

Does that help?

It does.  Though my rates and mortgage dont necessarily worry me.  I have outstanding credit and a plenty of disposable income for a down payment.  I was more so speaking about the actual price of homes.  In Jax, they've spiked.  For example, the place I'm in now was purchased for 265k in 2009, a steal.  I've got people telling me now, that it could go anywhere from 345-375k. I dont believe them though.  haha.  The condo unit right next to me has been unoccupied and on the market for almost a year, at that 345k range.  Which is crazy because my location is perfect and the condo's are great.  2 bed, 2 1/2 bath, 2 stories w/ balconies on both, walking distance to downtown to Jax Beach with a perfect ocean view.  But my neighbor cant sell it for the life of him.  He even had an open house this weekend and only had like 2 people even showed up.

I want more space, so I'm looking for a house.  The housing market has spiked too.  I'd say at least 50-100k more than they were a few years back.  I'm completely ignorant to how it all ties together but I guess I was trying to figure out if I can expect to see those price drop too, not just mortgage rates. 

 

 

[The Crusher]

If things tank in stocks, and I think they will, it'll have an enormous effect on mortgage pricing for a few reasons.  First of all, right now, if mortgage rates never went any lower, this would still be the most attractive time to borrow money in this country's history. However, I think they will go lower one more time for the following reasons... The biggest is that long dated US Treasury yields will drop as a response to declining stock market behavior, and the mortgage rates that are tied to them will also drop (some banks will be more generous than others, depending on their capital base - I would definitely shop around) . Then obviously the benefits from lower mortgage pricing will allow for a more comfortable mortgage payment. I'm in the "rates are due to normalize" camp but not until we get this last push down on rates.  

If I were looking for a moderately priced starter home, or wanted to build a portfolio of rental real estate of the same type of single or multi-family homes, I'd be using the opportunity to buy cheaply and then hold the property and let tenants pay it off. If you're a 1st time homebuyer you can also take advantage of FHA with PMI, which in retrospect 10 years from now will still look like a steal compared to rates in the future.

I think that the government has created an artificial bubble again in real estate to some degree, but in high-end real estate. I think given the poor economic situation for the majority of working Americans, there is not enough ability of most people (outside of major metropolitan areas - NY/DC/LA) in "normal" real estate markets to take advantage of what essentially is a government-sponsored real-estate buying program. Also, since they can't afford real estate and most people in their 30's are now carrying student debt greater than the average mortgage, we've created a generation of renters for decades to come. If you can, search out properties near major urban areas or walkable distances to major downtowns and employment. The millenials are staying closer to cities. 

When rates do normalize, you may actually see a spree of "can't miss it now" first time homebuyers push values up a little further. At some point, it'll cool but probably still to the positive. Real estate long term has been one of the best performing assets classes of all time. Don't even get me started on the tax benefits.

Does that help?

Where in hell do these people live?  North Dakota?  Not in Northern Virginia.  Most grads have to move back in with parents after school for a few years to get a good job and establish positive cash flow.  Freaking 1 bedroom condos start at $250K here.  I would think most student debt (under grad) is between 70K and 125K depending on school and in state or out of state.  As a parent you have to be a complete nincompoop to let the kid go deeper than that for undergrad.  Hell Little Sal is doing two years at Northern Va Community college before transferring to Virginia Tech to keep cost down.  College is an investment not a compulsory debt to be taken lightly.   

[Lizard King]

It does.  Though my rates and mortgage dont necessarily worry me.  I have outstanding credit and a plenty of disposable income for a down payment.  I was more so speaking about the actual price of homes.  In Jax, they've spiked.  For example, the place I'm in now was purchased for 265k in 2009, a steal.  I've got people telling me now, that it could go anywhere from 345-375k. I dont believe them though.  haha.  The condo unit right next to me has been unoccupied and on the market for almost a year, at that 345k range.  Which is crazy because my location is perfect and the condo's are great.  2 bed, 2 1/2 bath, 2 stories w/ balconies on both, walking distance to downtown to Jax Beach with a perfect ocean view.  But my neighbor cant sell it for the life of him.  He even had an open house this weekend and only had like 2 people even showed up.

I want more space, so I'm looking for a house.  The housing market has spiked too.  I'd say at least 50-100k more than they were a few years back.  I'm completely ignorant to how it all ties together but I guess I was trying to figure out if I can expect to see those price drop too, not just mortgage rates. 

 

 

I don't think it would necessarily drop, however there may be some dislocation due to job loss, etc. if the economy stalls out. I'm actually in the "economic renaissance" camp and think our best days are ahead, so I'm of the opinion that real estate is cheap compared to where it will be in the future and would look to be buying now. Everyone who held the opinion a few years ago that things recovered too quickly are also saying similar things. As for mortgage rates, I use them as the basis of determining how much pressure the lending market can put on the real estate market.

[Lizard King]

Where in hell do these people live?  North Dakota?  Not in Northern Virginia.  Most grads have to move back in with parents after school for a few years to get a good job and establish positive cash flow.  Freaking 1 bedroom condos start at $250K here.  I would think most student debt (under grad) is between 70K and 125K depending on school and in state or out of state.  As a parent you have to be a complete nincompoop to let the kid go deeper than that for undergrad.  Hell Little Sal is doing two years at Northern Va Community college before transferring to Virginia Tech to keep cost down.  College is an investment not a compulsory debt to be taken lightly.   

The average student debt load and the average mortgage, outside of urban areas, are almost at parity. You're in DC Metro which is just as bad as my NYC Metro. I have checked b/c I have two brothers down there. The majority of the country, believe it or not, doesn't have the same nominal cost for real estate that we do. I could flip my townhome in NJ for a massive 5 bedroom with a yard in Charlotte but that's why they say that real estate is all about location, location, location.

EDIT: My son will also be attending community college 17 years from now, but I think it'll be more online-based by that time. Costs may go back down in education.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Lizard King

[JustInFudge]

I don't think it would necessarily drop, however there may be some dislocation due to job loss, etc. if the economy stalls out. I'm actually in the "economic renaissance" camp and think our best days are ahead, so I'm of the opinion that real estate is cheap compared to where it will be in the future and would look to be buying now. Everyone who held the opinion a few years ago that things recovered too quickly are also saying similar things. As for mortgage rates, I use them as the basis of determining how much pressure the lending market can put on the real estate market.

Ok, cool. Thanks for the input, buddy.

[Pac]

Where in hell do these people live?  North Dakota?  Not in Northern Virginia.  Most grads have to move back in with parents after school for a few years to get a good job and establish positive cash flow.  Freaking 1 bedroom condos start at $250K here.  I would think most student debt (under grad) is between 70K and 125K depending on school and in state or out of state.  As a parent you have to be a complete nincompoop to let the kid go deeper than that for undergrad.  Hell Little Sal is doing two years at Northern Va Community college before transferring to Virginia Tech to keep cost down.  College is an investment not a compulsory debt to be taken lightly.   

such insanity lol.. for 250K I could get a mini mansion here.

and I don't care what you say...  Northern VA is not that much better than living here if at all.

[Lizard King]

such insanity lol.. for 250K I could get a mini mansion here.

and I don't care what you say...  Northern VA is not that much better than living here if at all.

You live in the a-hole of the arctic.

[Pac]

You live in the a-hole of the arctic.

NJ is a cesspool.

I live in a town that was named in the top 10 places to live in the country not too long ago.

[Lizard King]

NJ is a cesspool.

I live in a town that was named in the top 10 places to live in the country not too long ago.

Was that before or after Kodak polluted the water supply and went bankrupt?

I share a town with a candidate for president of the United States.

[The Crusher]

The average student debt load and the average mortgage, outside of urban areas, are almost at parity. You're in DC Metro which is just as bad as my NYC Metro. I have checked b/c I have two brothers down there. The majority of the country, believe it or not, doesn't have the same nominal cost for real estate that we do. I could flip my townhome in NJ for a massive 5 bedroom with a yard in Charlotte but that's why they say that real estate is all about location, location, location.

EDIT: My son will also be attending community college 17 years from now, but I think it'll be more online-based by that time. Costs may go back down in education.

100% agreed.  I see so many people here retire and sell the 4 bedroom 1600 sq foot split foyer home they raised their kids in for a luxury McMansion in a gated community in North Carolina.  Almost like a right of passage.  Been here for 23 years.  No idea how it is any place else.

[Lizard King]

Yeah ignore are top 1 and 2 school districts in the country.  Means nothing raising a family. 

Normally that would've been my response, too. Mendham sent 98% of its graduating class to college, trade school or the military.

[The Crusher]

Normally that would've been my response, too. Mendham sent 98% of its graduating class to college, trade school or the military.

Baby Crusher was a middle of the road work for every grade he got 3.o student.  Got to University of Central Arkansas and he is like Stephen Hawking with a better posture.  LOL  I know its Arknasas but still.   haha

[Pac]

Was that before or after Kodak polluted the water supply and went bankrupt?

I share a town with a candidate for president of the United States.

After.

Who gives a sh-t?

[CTM]

 

I think that the government has created an artificial bubble again in real estate to some degree, but in high-end real estate. I think given the poor economic situation for the majority of working Americans, there is not enough ability of most people (outside of major metropolitan areas - NY/DC/LA) in "normal" real estate markets to take advantage of what essentially is a government-sponsored real-estate buying program. Also, since they can't afford real estate and most people in their 30's are now carrying student debt greater than the average mortgage, we've created a generation of renters for decades to come. If you can, search out properties near major urban areas or walkable distances to major downtowns and employment. The millenials are staying closer to cities. 

 

See this was my thinking for awhile and I started looking into buying apartment buildings, but now it seems Obama did some pretty drastic things with student debt which might encourage more home ownership for these groups (limiting payments to 10% of discretionary income (which will be fudged, of course), and basically cancelling all debt after 20 years)

[The Crusher]

See this was my thinking for awhile and I started looking into buying apartment buildings, but now it seems Obama did some pretty drastic things with student debt which might encourage more home ownership for these groups (limiting payments to 10% of discretionary income (which will be fudged, of course), and basically cancelling all debt after 20 years)

Did he really?  Wow.  Use to be student loan debt would chase you to your grave.  I would have to think as soon as he is out that will go with him. 

[Pac]

Yeah ignore are top 1 and 2 school districts in the country.  Means nothing raising a family. 

My son will do just fine with the 78th ranked school in NYS.  Already got him on honor roll and the LF hounds him every day being as she's a former teacher currently in Admin.  He's on track to dust me in terms of job and earnings and that makes me happy.

[The Crusher]

such insanity lol.. for 250K I could get a mini mansion here.

and I don't care what you say...  Northern VA is not that much better than living here if at all.

True.  You could. Im glad your happy. 

[Pac]

True.  You could. Im glad your happy. 

 

I'm not sure I like your tone..  Perhaps it's time to revisit the idea of kicking the sh-t out of you.

[The Crusher]

My son will do just fine with the 78th ranked school in NYS.  Already got him on honor roll and the LF hounds him every day being as she's a former teacher currently in Admin.  He's on track to dust me in terms of job and earnings and that makes me happy.

100% with you there.  All we could hope for. 

[CTM]

Did he really?  Wow.  Use to be student loan debt would chase you to your grave.  I would have to think as soon as he is out that will go with him. 

Yes, under the covers he actually accomplished quite a bit of his agenda without much fanfare. He basically nationalized student debt

Here's a good snippet from a good (but long) article

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/obama-biggest-achievements-213487

 

Obamacare wasn’t really a government takeover, but the student loan overhaul actually was; it yanked the program away from Sallie Mae and other private lenders that had raked in enormous fees without taking much risk. The bill then diverted the budget savings into a $36 billion expansion of Pell Grants for low-income undergraduates, plus an unheralded but extraordinary student-debt relief effort that is now quietly transferring the burden of college loans from struggling borrowers to taxpayers. It all added up to a revolution in how America finances higher education, completely overshadowed by the health care hoopla and drama.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/obama-biggest-achievements-213487#ixzz3xhkyUQv2

[The Crusher]

I'm not sure I like your tone..  Perhaps it's time to revisit the idea of kicking the sh-t out of you.

Be nice to me.  I just fired ADP and will probably be hiring your company.

[CTM]

My son will do just fine with the 78th ranked school in NYS.  Already got him on honor roll and the LF hounds him every day being as she's a former teacher currently in Admin.  He's on track to dust me in terms of job and earnings and that makes me happy.

I dont think I'm sending my kids to college fwiw, i think colleges can't keep up with the rate of change in business and it's now a completely waste of money for all practical purproses (short of going to ivy league and being handed a 6 figure job)

[The Crusher]

 

Yes, under the covers he actually accomplished quite a bit of his agenda without much fanfare. He basically nationalized student debt

Here's a good snippet from a good (but long) article

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/obama-biggest-achievements-213487

 

Damn paid my loans off 14 years too early.  At this point my oldest daughter is done with her loans and Baby Crusher will not need any loans for his first year.  So far so good.

[Pac]

Be nice to me.  I just fired ADP and will probably be hiring your company.

I could set you up with the Rep..  PM me..  get you deal

[The Crusher]

I dont think I'm sending my kids to college fwiw, i think colleges can't keep up with the rate of change in business and it's now a completely waste of money for all practical purproses (short of going to ivy league and being handed a 6 figure job)

Not first person I heard that from.  I got a lot of friends and associates setting up passive income companies for their kids.  Too late for me to do that.  But with younger kids certainly an option. 

[Pac]

I dont think I'm sending my kids to college fwiw, i think colleges can't keep up with the rate of change in business and it's now a completely waste of money for all practical purproses (short of going to ivy league and being handed a 6 figure job)

Our early strategy is a community college for 2 years while he lives with us then a SUNY school for the last 2..  no one cares where you went your first 2 years they just look at the degree..

but if he winds up being super smart I might be doing him a disservice with talk of a comm coll.

[The Crusher]

I could set you up with the Rep..  PM me..  get you deal

My girl Alex already met with a couple nice, well dressed representatives.  Last I heard only sticking point is they yet to tell us if they have the online secured time sheets.  A must for my business that has 14 female employees. Cant let these ladies look at each others earnings in any form.  We do a lot of performance bonuses.  Had some straight out brutal hen fights. They came in at about 50%of what Im paying.  So price point seems optimal. 

[The Crusher]

Our early strategy is a community college for 2 years while he lives with us then a SUNY school for the last 2..  no one cares where you went your first 2 years they just look at the degree..

but if he winds up being super smart I might be doing him a disservice with talk of a comm coll.

Good plan.  if he is super smart someone will give him any money he needs for school.  My youngest Rose is like that.  In eighth grade now.  She was offered a spot at Thomas Jefferson High School for science and Technology next year.She doesn't want to go because all her friends are going to the same school her brothers went to.  My wife and I are not pushing it.  She has done well at both elementary and middle school.  She should enjoy high school.  At least my thought.

[Pac]

My girl Alex already met with a couple nice, well dressed representatives.  Last I heard only sticking point is they yet to tell us if they have the online secured time sheets.  A must for my business that has 14 female employees. Cant let these ladies look at each others earnings in any form.  We do a lot of performance bonuses.  Had some straight out brutal hen fights. They came in at about 50%of what Im paying.  So price point seems optimal. 

Are you referring to the person that keys it in?  If so then we do.  The admin (yourself or off mngr) can create sub users under your access and limit what they can see.  You can easily block salaries.

If you're referring to time and attendance options we have a few...  From a bare bones clock that can be put on the wall to an online solution that allows for employees to punch in and out on a mobil app... even has a geo tracking feature which will prohibit them from punching in unless they're at the job site.

[Jetsfan80]

I wish there would be some kind of deal where, if you're an out of state student, your loans decrease the longer you stay in that state after graduating.  I know for the 17-school UNC system, that's always the reason they jack up tuition rates:  They don't feel any obligation to give out of state students degrees just to watch them return back to their home states.  And who can blame them?

But as for me, I came down to NC and stuck around.  I didn't even leave the region my university is in.  There should be incentive for more out of staters to do what I'm doing, no?

[The Crusher]

Are you referring to the person that keys it in?  If so then we do.  The admin (yourself or off mngr) can create sub users under your access and limit what they can see.  You can easily block salaries.

If you're referring to time and attendance options we have a few...  From a bare bones clock that can be put on the wall to an online solution that allows for employees to punch in and out on a mobil app... even has a geo tracking feature which will prohibit them from punching in unless they're at the job site.

Interesting.  My manager, Alex handles all that stuff.  I will let her know.  I know the price point came in nice.  ADP has been banging me.  They seem to be a better fit for really large companies.  The hot chick with the huge boobs at my bank recommended them.  So... you know.

[Pac]

Interesting.  My manager, Alex handles all that stuff.  I will let her know.  I know the price point came in nice.  ADP has been banging me.  They seem to be a better fit for really large companies.  The hot chick with the huge boobs at my bank recommended them.  So... you know.

Yeah I just saw...  Alex met with our guy Jimmy on the 7th (I'm resourceful).

I could tell you 20 reasons why we're better but everyone else might get bored.

[The Crusher]

Yeah I just saw...  Alex met with our guy Jimmy on the 7th (I'm resourceful).

I could tell you 20 reasons why we're better but everyone else might get bored.

1. half the cost   2-20. see 1.  not to mention ADP are really bad at it and they flat out lie. Not sure if it is because we are a pretty small business and they really dont give a fuck or just the way they do thing. 

[Pac]

1. half the cost   2-20. see 1.  not to mention ADP are really bad at it and they flat out lie. Not sure if it is because we are a pretty small business and they really dont give a **** or just the way they do thing. 

Their cust svc doesn't hold a candle to ours either..  with us you'll have a designated rep that handles the acct out of our office in Fairfax..  Alex will always talk to the same person so there's a rapport and not having to re-explain the issue every time you call in...  we both have 24-7 support available now but ours is US based.. they're in the Philippines.

We're the 2 largest in the country..  Alex is looking at a good time - our busiest month of the year by far...  that's probably why we came in much lower than them.  we can do some nice discounting in Jan and when trying to take an ADP client so you got both going for you.