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Daredevil Mafia


JustInFudge

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keep reading. He doesn't understand what he even did for the next 10 posts. Oscar worthy of he's scum.

Yes Babe in the woods muddling around then he comes in and hammers with a swiftness.  Not hard to act like you dont know what you are doing when you dont.  My point is NOT that he knows what he is doing, but someone told him to hammer, because noob and stuff.  80 is another one Im worried about now.  He came into the day with a list before anybody else and then creeped back into the darkness.

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Spoot?  unvoter

AVM and Spoot are the most pragmatic choices right now, and I'll likely end up voting one of them today, but I wanted to get some pressuring in before I just go all-in on someone. Beyond them, my suspicions are spread across Hess, Pac, LK, 80 and Smash has started to ping a little, but I can't tell if he's reaction testing or just scum.

Smash is asking the Doc to out themselves, that's a mistake. Doc revealing now pretty much insures that if there's another investigative role that reveals, the Doc dies. However, with the Doc hidden, scum has to wifom if they hit the doc, hit a BPV, and any other investigative role gains protection as a result of the wifom. It's a terrible play for the doc to reveal, frankly.

Hess has been fishing for my role is since yesterday... which is why he's my #1 suspect, so I may just reveal. We're pretty ****ed, and I've been tipping my hand anyway. 

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There are several reasons that the NK may not have happened. Vests, role blockers, doc, possible conversions, holstering to draw out a doc claim... I'm sure there is a better way to narrow the field.

yeah that's all taken into account Ape .... Its up to the Doc to make the call I'm just putting ideas out there. In a small game I doubt there are to many if any BPV's and I seriously doubt there are conversions

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yeah that's all taken into account Ape .... Its up to the Doc to make the call I'm just putting ideas out there. In a small game I doubt there are to many if any BPV's and I seriously doubt there are conversions

CTM's role is to convert Brett. 

At least 2 killing roles in a 13 person game necessitates more than just a doc protection balance the game out.

Couldn't disagree with you more.

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Pac, 80, and Hess?

Crush legitimately picked it up and went crazy for a while, calmed back down and Hess...Hess'd.

Feels like 80 is hiding.

80 did park on Pac for a while day 1...so that makes that seem pretty unlikely.

 

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CTM's role is to convert Brett. 

At least 2 killing roles in a 13 person game necessitates more than just a doc protection balance the game out.

Couldn't disagree with you more.

from your perspective CTM is telling the truth from mine he's not so I'm not going for the conversion. Either way its the Doc's call Im not sure how much information JIF would give the Doc if he was hit.

The request for doc to claim is awful...

And Smash is absolutely town.

Its a request for the Doc to consider claiming I think I made that perfectly clear. if the Doc knows for sure he was the target he has to claim and there is no doubt about that since at that point scum is going to know their NK failed for a reason. With the Cop dead there is no reason for the Doc (at this stage) to protect anyone but himself

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@ape and avm ... Its not a terrible play for the Doc to reveal based on what he knows .... And the possibility of there being 2 investigative roles is crazy in such a small game. This is not the 20 plus games where we've seen back up cops and trackers/watchers. I've made this play before and its very feasible ONCE AGAIN depending on what the Doc actually knows.

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from your perspective CTM is telling the truth from mine he's not so I'm not going for the conversion. Either way its the Doc's call Im not sure how much information JIF would give the Doc if he was hit.

Its a request for the Doc to consider claiming I think I made that perfectly clear. if the Doc knows for sure he was the target he has to claim and there is no doubt about that since at that point scum is going to know their NK failed for a reason. With the Cop dead there is no reason for the Doc (at this stage) to protect anyone but himself

What benefit does it add to town knowing who the doc is? Clear one person. Maybe get an idea of who would shoot at them but probably not. Anything else?

Now...what benefit does it add to scum? Know for sure what stopped their shot and IF there are other kill negating roles scum now knows them too. Ability to fake claim. Anything else?

Tell me how the good outweighs the bad.

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from your perspective CTM is telling the truth from mine he's not so I'm not going for the conversion. Either way its the Doc's call Im not sure how much information JIF would give the Doc if he was hit.

Its a request for the Doc to consider claiming I think I made that perfectly clear. if the Doc knows for sure he was the target he has to claim and there is no doubt about that since at that point scum is going to know their NK failed for a reason. With the Cop dead there is no reason for the Doc (at this stage) to protect anyone but himself

I've never played a game where the doc was told they were targeted. Sometimes mods tell you if you've been role blocked, and if you lose a vest, the mod tells you.

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I haven't seen anyone state there was another investigative role...but I've seen BPVs and I think Crush mentioned roleblocker.

Both very possible in a 13 player game with a scum team and 3 shot Vig. 

I forgot above the chance that scum has a roleblocker, and blocks/kills doc after a reveal

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I've never played a game where the doc was told they were targeted. Sometimes mods tell you if you've been role blocked, and if you lose a vest, the mod tells you.

+1 

PAFO on doc targets. May even get a scene for a BPV, but that varies by mod.

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Pac, 80, and Hess?

Crush legitimately picked it up and went crazy for a while, calmed back down and Hess...Hess'd.

Feels like 80 is hiding.

80 did park on Pac for a while day 1...so that makes that seem pretty unlikely.

 

Man you own me if you are town.  Went from expecting you to agreeing with you.  Unless your doing it on purpose.  I did mention 80 hiding bit ago.

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Ape according to your reads a few pages ago there's an issue. AVM was your choice for scum and your second was Hess. Hess listed AVM as his best choice for scum. What do we do about that. Something doesn't click. 

No, you're not reading closely, or I didn't make it clear enough...

AVM and Spoot are the smartest votes today. At least one of them is scum. Hess is someone I feel is scum also. Hess and AVM can both be scum, I don't know what doesn't "click" about that. Scum bus and distance each other routinely. 

I've got to wrap up what I'm doing here at home and I'll elaborate. I just haven't had a chance to type it all out.

Should really unvote me, if you're doing so, in the meantime.

 

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I haven't seen anyone state there was another investigative role...but I've seen BPVs and I think Crush mentioned roleblocker.

Both very possible in a 13 player game with a scum team and 3 shot Vig. 

I forgot above the chance that scum has a roleblocker, and blocks/kills doc after a reveal

well then in this case the doc is dead tonight anyhow ...you guys are figuring way to much in the way of roles. Highly doubt there is a role blocker because scum, early on, would be role blocking and killing the same damn person so whomever got targeted last night would now be dead. I told you I have claimed Doc in this situation before and came out just fine. There is no role blocker. That being said to answer another one of your questions with ten people left in the game narrowing it down by one could be huge especially if the Doc is one of the people getting attention.

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No, you're not reading closely, or I didn't make it clear enough...

AVM and Spoot are the smartest votes today. At least one of them is scum. Hess is someone I feel is scum also. Hess and AVM can both be scum, I don't know what doesn't "click" about that. Scum bus and distance each other routinely. 

I've got to wrap up what I'm doing here at home and I'll elaborate. I just haven't had a chance to type it all out.

Should really unvote me, if you're doing so, in the meantime.

 

Just interesting that Hess would go so far as to make AVM the top read and not sandwich him into the 2 or 3 slot.

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Here you go... I am the Town Sensor. Works like it always does, I get a result each night with the amount of non-town on each train. I've confirmed with JIF that it's NON-TOWN and not just scum. So Brett definitely counts as one of the results on his own train. 

Final Official Vote Count (D2) 
AVM (2) - Leelou, Hess
Ape (2) - 80, LK
Leelou (6) - SmashAVMApeCrusher, CTMSpoot (2 non-town)
Hess (1) - Pac


FINAL VOTE COUNT (D1)
Brett (7) - LeelouApeLKBretSpootPacAVM (3 non-town)
Ape (1) - CTM
Leelou (1) - Smash
CTM (2) - Hess, 80
non-vote: CrusherVerb

Given the results, and my hypothesis that there are 3 scum in the game:

  • AVM and Spoot are on both trains, and could both be scum, but at least one of them has to be. If I'm not mistaken, lynching one of them gives us at least a 50/50 shot at being right. Which is why I've said several times AVM and Spoot are smart votes since this day started.
  • If, only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then that means that one of LK or Pac is scum on the D1 train AND one of Crusher, Smash, CTM is scum on the D2 train, and someone off-train would be the third scum. This is the scenario that has been making my brain hurt, so if anyone can help "check my math" here so to speak, it would be helpful.
  • No matter what, with only 2 scum on each train, I think that means there's at least 1 scum off-train. Hess and 80 are the only 2 players not on either train. I started there today, because if both AVM and Spoot are scum, then that means that either Hess or 80 has to be also. So, the odds are similarly good here too. If only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then pretty much any of the off-train voters can be scum in the right if-then scenarios between D1 and D2. Much messier.

Go back through my posts from the start of this day phase, after I got my info on the D2 train.

  • I've consistently said AVM or Spoot is a smart choice
  • I also said to Smash there's a better way to narrow the pool, which I'm doing
  • I am voting Hess, and said that Hess was not on either train, which factors into the logic of my 3rd bullet above - I want to pressure and figure out who may be connected to who, now that having some info can lend credibility to connecting players

This is also why I refused to reveal when I got to L2 on D2, I didn't want to reveal with only 1 days worth of results. It's also why I've been trying to do the stuff I normally do as vanilla town, like last game, where I use myself as bait to scum hunt. I've been torn as to whether revealing now was the best play or not, but I've been a lynch candidate for the past 2 days, Hess has been role-fishing with me, and if I get quick-lynched or NK'ed I'll die with the info, so it makes sense to me to just put it out there now... this should narrow the pool... if it's not the best play, then oh well.

 

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Just interesting that Hess would go so far as to make AVM the top read and not sandwich him into the 2 or 3 slot.

Why? AVM was a lynch candidate yesterday... if you're going to bus someone, you don't pussy-foot around it.

 

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