Jump to content
Want to remove all ads? ×

Daredevil Mafia

JustInFudge

By JustInFudge
in Mafia Game Forum

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Integrity28

Integrity28

Posted
Posted

that's an excellent observation on Ape. He'd be all over the train as town but instead he's going for whoever wasn't on the train. He's either second guessing himself or scum. 

Not my first choice but I think I could vote Ape. The way he played at L3 he was begging for a vote. I was thinking it was bc he's PR and wanted to scream about it in Ape. But it just means he has something he's comfortable with. So I guess he just as well feel it's a great fake reveal as scum. 

 

Not or feeling CTM a as much. Not going to vote there today.

 

This should make sense now, but I still wanted to pull this quote up because this is yet another example of Hess nudging someone else's bad instincts along.

Dude is scum.

So, to me, I'm combining my instinct with the info from my role, and what I think are good odds of voting on of the non-train scum possibilities. I could just as easily vote AVM or Spoot, I just have reservations about which one to vote first. I'm leaning AVM, because of the connection with Hess... and because of how yesterday lynch trains just stalled until Leelou was ninja'd. Could be that Spoot was saving his own teammate there... anyway, Hess, AVM, Spoot... all good votes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Crusher

The Crusher

Posted
Posted

Here you go... I am the Town Sensor. Works like it always does, I get a result each night with the amount of non-town on each train. I've confirmed with JIF that it's NON-TOWN and not just scum. So Brett definitely counts as one of the results on his own train. 

Final Official Vote Count (D2) 
AVM (2) - Leelou, Hess
Ape (2) - 80, LK
Leelou (6) - Smash, AVM, Ape, Crusher, CTM, Spoot (2 non-town)
Hess (1) - Pac


FINAL VOTE COUNT (D1)
Brett (7) - Leelou, Ape, LK, Bret, Spoot, Pac, AVM (3 non-town)
Ape (1) - CTM
Leelou (1) - Smash
CTM (2) - Hess, 80
non-vote: Crusher, Verb

Given the results, and my hypothesis that there are 3 scum in the game:

  • AVM and Spoot are on both trains, and could both be scum, but at least one of them has to be. If I'm not mistaken, lynching one of them gives us at least a 50/50 shot at being right. Which is why I've said several times AVM and Spoot are smart votes since this day started.
  • If, only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then that means that one of LK or Pac is scum on the D1 train AND one of Crusher, Smash, CTM is scum on the D2 train, and someone off-train would be the third scum. This is the scenario that has been making my brain hurt, so if anyone can help "check my math" here so to speak, it would be helpful.
  • No matter what, with only 2 scum on each train, I think that means there's at least 1 scum off-train. Hess and 80 are the only 2 players not on either train. I started there today, because if both AVM and Spoot are scum, then that means that either Hess or 80 has to be also. So, the odds are similarly good here too. If only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then pretty much any of the off-train voters can be scum in the right if-then scenarios between D1 and D2. Much messier.

Go back through my posts from the start of this day phase, after I got my info on the D2 train.

  • I've consistently said AVM or Spoot is a smart choice
  • I also said to Smash there's a better way to narrow the pool, which I'm doing
  • I am voting Hess, and said that Hess was not on either train, which factors into the logic of my 3rd bullet above - I want to pressure and figure out who may be connected to who, now that having some info can lend credibility to connecting players

This is also why I refused to reveal when I got to L2 on D2, I didn't want to reveal with only 1 days worth of results. It's also why I've been trying to do the stuff I normally do as vanilla town, like last game, where I use myself as bait to scum hunt. I've been torn as to whether revealing now was the best play or not, but I've been a lynch candidate for the past 2 days, Hess has been role-fishing with me, and if I get quick-lynched or NK'ed I'll die with the info, so it makes sense to me to just put it out there now... this should narrow the pool... if it's not the best play, then oh well.

 

Holy crap. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Crusher

The Crusher

Posted
Posted

This should make sense now, but I still wanted to pull this quote up because this is yet another example of Hess nudging someone else's bad instincts along.

Dude is scum.

So, to me, I'm combining my instinct with the info from my role, and what I think are good odds of voting on of the non-train scum possibilities. I could just as easily vote AVM or Spoot, I just have reservations about which one to vote first. I'm leaning AVM, because of the connection with Hess... and because of how yesterday lynch trains just stalled until Leelou was ninja'd. Could be that Spoot was saving his own teammate there... anyway, Hess, AVM, Spoot... all good votes.

Science.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AVM

AVM

Posted
Posted

13 players to start, 1 3rd party....3 scum = 25% not counting Brett. More reasonable than 4, can't guarantee Brett ever gets converted.

That being said...assuming Ape is telling the truth, and there's a TON of work put into a fake claim if not (I would be inclined to believe him)...town would have a cop, vig whisperer, sensor AND doc(possible bpv instead, with no doc...but doc is so common here I can't imagine it not being in the game).

vote Spoot and if so therewould HAVE to be a roleblocker at least. Prob need 3 rolled scum to counter balance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Crusher

The Crusher

Posted
Posted

13 players to start, 1 3rd party....3 scum = 25% not counting Brett. More reasonable than 4, can't guarantee Brett ever gets converted.

That being said...assuming Ape is telling the truth, and there's a TON of work put into a fake claim if not (I would be inclined to believe him)...town would have a cop, vig whisperer, sensor AND doc(possible bpv instead, with no doc...but doc is so common here I can't imagine it not being in the game).

vote Spoot and if so therewould HAVE to be a roleblocker at least. Prob need 3 rolled scum to counter balance.

If a roleblocker was in the game somebody brought up that scum would probably roleblock and kill.  Not sure myself. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Smashmouth

Smashmouth

Posted
Posted

Here you go... I am the Town Sensor. Works like it always does, I get a result each night with the amount of non-town on each train. I've confirmed with JIF that it's NON-TOWN and not just scum. So Brett definitely counts as one of the results on his own train. 

Final Official Vote Count (D2) 
AVM (2) - Leelou, Hess
Ape (2) - 80, LK
Leelou (6) - Smash, AVM, Ape, Crusher, CTM, Spoot (2 non-town)
Hess (1) - Pac


FINAL VOTE COUNT (D1)
Brett (7) - Leelou, Ape, LK, Bret, Spoot, Pac, AVM (3 non-town)
Ape (1) - CTM
Leelou (1) - Smash
CTM (2) - Hess, 80
non-vote: Crusher, Verb

Given the results, and my hypothesis that there are 3 scum in the game:

  • AVM and Spoot are on both trains, and could both be scum, but at least one of them has to be. If I'm not mistaken, lynching one of them gives us at least a 50/50 shot at being right. Which is why I've said several times AVM and Spoot are smart votes since this day started.
  • If, only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then that means that one of LK or Pac is scum on the D1 train AND one of Crusher, Smash, CTM is scum on the D2 train, and someone off-train would be the third scum. This is the scenario that has been making my brain hurt, so if anyone can help "check my math" here so to speak, it would be helpful.
  • No matter what, with only 2 scum on each train, I think that means there's at least 1 scum off-train. Hess and 80 are the only 2 players not on either train. I started there today, because if both AVM and Spoot are scum, then that means that either Hess or 80 has to be also. So, the odds are similarly good here too. If only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then pretty much any of the off-train voters can be scum in the right if-then scenarios between D1 and D2. Much messier.

Go back through my posts from the start of this day phase, after I got my info on the D2 train.

  • I've consistently said AVM or Spoot is a smart choice
  • I also said to Smash there's a better way to narrow the pool, which I'm doing
  • I am voting Hess, and said that Hess was not on either train, which factors into the logic of my 3rd bullet above - I want to pressure and figure out who may be connected to who, now that having some info can lend credibility to connecting players

This is also why I refused to reveal when I got to L2 on D2, I didn't want to reveal with only 1 days worth of results. It's also why I've been trying to do the stuff I normally do as vanilla town, like last game, where I use myself as bait to scum hunt. I've been torn as to whether revealing now was the best play or not, but I've been a lynch candidate for the past 2 days, Hess has been role-fishing with me, and if I get quick-lynched or NK'ed I'll die with the info, so it makes sense to me to just put it out there now... this should narrow the pool... if it's not the best play, then oh well.

 

Well done Ape .. On leelous train there are 2 non town so if AVM and Spoot are scum there is no way CTM can be scum since he was also on that train. How set in stone are you about AVM and Spoot ? Reason I ask is because I really think CTM is scum and fake claimed therefore clearing one of them from my standpoint. Hopefully the Doc can clear this up because if the Doc is on the brett train we can really narrow this down

.Brett (7) - Leelou, Ape, LK, Bret, Spoot, Pac, AVM (3 non-town)

if the Doc is on the above train since leelou/brett are dead and APE is town we can really narrow this down

I know you don't want a doc claim but I think it gives us a ton of info to work with and the doc can still protect himself since the over whelming odds say there is no role blocker.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Smashmouth

Smashmouth

Posted
Posted

If a roleblocker was in the game somebody brought up that scum would probably roleblock and kill.  Not sure myself. 

Its the logical thing to do. Scum is always hunting the Doc and the Cop it would make no sense not to role block and attempt a kill on the same person.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spoot-Face

Spoot-Face

Posted
Posted

Self preservation much?

Not really, no, but it is probably my best play here. Before Leelou was lynched, I was sure of a (Leelou, AVM, 80) scum team, with LK as a possible 4th. YOU had actually pinged me early on, but then that suspicion disappeared. If what Ape is saying is true, then perhaps I was right about AVM, even though I was wrong about Leelou. I guess we'll find out, one way or the other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Integrity28

Integrity28

Posted
Posted

Well done Ape .. On leelous train there are 2 non town so if AVM and Spoot are scum there is no way CTM can be scum since he was also on that train. How set in stone are you about AVM and Spoot ? Reason I ask is because I really think CTM is scum and fake claimed therefore clearing one of them from my standpoint. Hopefully the Doc can clear this up because if the Doc is on the brett train we can really narrow this down

.Brett (7) - Leelou, Ape, LK, Bret, Spoot, Pac, AVM (3 non-town)

if the Doc is on the above train since leelou/brett are dead and APE is town we can really narrow this down

I know you don't want a doc claim but I think it gives us a ton of info to work with and the doc can still protect himself since the over whelming odds say there is no role blocker.
 

If the Doc is on the Brett train, then it would be one of LK, Pooty, Pac and AVM. Remove the Doc and doesn't it make it a 1/3? Whereas AVM or Spoot is 1/2 (at worst)?

Trusting Ape and assuming only 3 scum, the math is right -- would clear Hess and 80, actually.

but still...that's a lot of town power to be accounted for

That's not correct.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Crusher

The Crusher

Posted
Posted

Not really, no, but it is probably my best play here. Before Leelou was lynched, I was sure of a (Leelou, AVM, 80) scum team, with LK as a possible 4th. YOU had actually pinged me early on, but then that suspicion disappeared. If what Ape is saying is true, then perhaps I was right about AVM, even though I was wrong about Leelou. I guess we'll find out, one way or the other.

Hard for me not to love you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HessStation

HessStation

Posted
Posted

nevermind, confused myself with the math lol

Can't see any way one of myself/Spoot aren't scum. Knowing who the doc is makes no difference, freaking stop it Smash.

I read you wrong and actually thought you were saying me and 80 would be scum then. My bad fwiw. But still. I think you're scum. <3

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Integrity28

Integrity28

Posted
Posted

nevermind, confused myself with the math lol

Can't see any way one of myself/Spoot aren't scum. Knowing who the doc is makes no difference, freaking stop it Smash.

That's what I said.

Also, your bit about my info clearing Hess and 80 is completely wrong. 

Ape, it's true if both Spoot and I aren't scum -- which (I know, wifom) from my perspective clears them. Shouldn't in your mind or anyone else's, agreed.

A scenario where one of you isn't scum doesn't exist. It's math.

Unvite
Vote AVM

No-brainer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company

Site Sponsor

MetLife Stadium Tailgate

NY Jets Podcast

NY Jets Podcast

DMCA Page

  • -- DMCA Page
    • ×
    ×
    • Create New...