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JustInFudge

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Sorry I was away guys, legitimately had a lot going on last evening after work.  I wasn't intentionally "hiding" like Crusher/AVM suggested.  

Just caught up.  I still like Pac for scum, but based on the Ape's reveal (which we'd have to assume means scum has a ton of power OR possibly 4 people on it if we believe it), and given that I think Spoot has been townier than AVM, this is the only vote to make:

Unvote vote AVM

hmmmm.  You and Hess.  

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Here you go... I am the Town Sensor. Works like it always does, I get a result each night with the amount of non-town on each train. I've confirmed with JIF that it's NON-TOWN and not just scum. So Brett definitely counts as one of the results on his own train. 

Final Official Vote Count (D2) 
AVM (2) - Leelou, Hess
Ape (2) - 80, LK
Leelou (6) - SmashAVMApeCrusher, CTMSpoot (2 non-town)
Hess (1) - Pac


FINAL VOTE COUNT (D1)
Brett (7) - LeelouApeLKBretSpootPacAVM (3 non-town)
Ape (1) - CTM
Leelou (1) - Smash
CTM (2) - Hess, 80
non-vote: CrusherVerb

Given the results, and my hypothesis that there are 3 scum in the game:

  • AVM and Spoot are on both trains, and could both be scum, but at least one of them has to be. If I'm not mistaken, lynching one of them gives us at least a 50/50 shot at being right. Which is why I've said several times AVM and Spoot are smart votes since this day started.
  • If, only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then that means that one of LK or Pac is scum on the D1 train AND one of Crusher, Smash, CTM is scum on the D2 train, and someone off-train would be the third scum. This is the scenario that has been making my brain hurt, so if anyone can help "check my math" here so to speak, it would be helpful.
  • No matter what, with only 2 scum on each train, I think that means there's at least 1 scum off-train. Hess and 80 are the only 2 players not on either train. I started there today, because if both AVM and Spoot are scum, then that means that either Hess or 80 has to be also. So, the odds are similarly good here too. If only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then pretty much any of the off-train voters can be scum in the right if-then scenarios between D1 and D2. Much messier.

Go back through my posts from the start of this day phase, after I got my info on the D2 train.

  • I've consistently said AVM or Spoot is a smart choice
  • I also said to Smash there's a better way to narrow the pool, which I'm doing
  • I am voting Hess, and said that Hess was not on either train, which factors into the logic of my 3rd bullet above - I want to pressure and figure out who may be connected to who, now that having some info can lend credibility to connecting players

This is also why I refused to reveal when I got to L2 on D2, I didn't want to reveal with only 1 days worth of results. It's also why I've been trying to do the stuff I normally do as vanilla town, like last game, where I use myself as bait to scum hunt. I've been torn as to whether revealing now was the best play or not, but I've been a lynch candidate for the past 2 days, Hess has been role-fishing with me, and if I get quick-lynched or NK'ed I'll die with the info, so it makes sense to me to just put it out there now... this should narrow the pool... if it's not the best play, then oh well.

 

I'm inclined to believe this. If you were scum and there are 3 scum total, if scum run the table it still takes the next two days to be at LYLO. 

We get your results tomorrow, cop probably dies tonight and then you die the following night 

today in other words, is crucial. 

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any other reasons?

Ape? No...I believed he was town all game. Its only thinking numbers that even has remote doubt...but its like 1%.

The fact that Im not lynched yet makes me think even more hes town. He would check in, for sure, after a big play like that.

 

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Votes and other observations after the Ape reveal  

Here you go... I am the Town Sensor. Works like it always does, I get a result each night with the amount of non-town on each train. I've confirmed with JIF that it's NON-TOWN and not just scum. So Brett definitely counts as one of the results on his own train. 

Final Official Vote Count (D2) 
AVM (2) - Leelou, Hess
Ape (2) - 80, LK
Leelou (6) - SmashAVMApeCrusher, CTMSpoot (2 non-town)
Hess (1) - Pac


FINAL VOTE COUNT (D1)
Brett (7) - LeelouApeLKBretSpootPacAVM (3 non-town)
Ape (1) - CTM
Leelou (1) - Smash
CTM (2) - Hess, 80
non-vote: CrusherVerb

Given the results, and my hypothesis that there are 3 scum in the game:

  • AVM and Spoot are on both trains, and could both be scum, but at least one of them has to be. If I'm not mistaken, lynching one of them gives us at least a 50/50 shot at being right. Which is why I've said several times AVM and Spoot are smart votes since this day started.
  • If, only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then that means that one of LK or Pac is scum on the D1 train AND one of Crusher, Smash, CTM is scum on the D2 train, and someone off-train would be the third scum. This is the scenario that has been making my brain hurt, so if anyone can help "check my math" here so to speak, it would be helpful.
  • No matter what, with only 2 scum on each train, I think that means there's at least 1 scum off-train. Hess and 80 are the only 2 players not on either train. I started there today, because if both AVM and Spoot are scum, then that means that either Hess or 80 has to be also. So, the odds are similarly good here too. If only one of either AVM or Spoot is scum, then pretty much any of the off-train voters can be scum in the right if-then scenarios between D1 and D2. Much messier.

Go back through my posts from the start of this day phase, after I got my info on the D2 train.

  • I've consistently said AVM or Spoot is a smart choice
  • I also said to Smash there's a better way to narrow the pool, which I'm doing
  • I am voting Hess, and said that Hess was not on either train, which factors into the logic of my 3rd bullet above - I want to pressure and figure out who may be connected to who, now that having some info can lend credibility to connecting players

This is also why I refused to reveal when I got to L2 on D2, I didn't want to reveal with only 1 days worth of results. It's also why I've been trying to do the stuff I normally do as vanilla town, like last game, where I use myself as bait to scum hunt. I've been torn as to whether revealing now was the best play or not, but I've been a lynch candidate for the past 2 days, Hess has been role-fishing with me, and if I get quick-lynched or NK'ed I'll die with the info, so it makes sense to me to just put it out there now... this should narrow the pool... if it's not the best play, then oh well.

 

vote AVM

Well done Ape .. On leelous train there are 2 non town so if AVM and Spoot are scum there is no way CTM can be scum since he was also on that train. How set in stone are you about AVM and Spoot ? Reason I ask is because I really think CTM is scum and fake claimed therefore clearing one of them from my standpoint. Hopefully the Doc can clear this up because if the Doc is on the brett train we can really narrow this down

.Brett (7) - LeelouApeLKBretSpootPacAVM (3 non-town)

if the Doc is on the above train since leelou/brett are dead and APE is town we can really narrow this down

I know you don't want a doc claim but I think it gives us a ton of info to work with and the doc can still protect himself since the over whelming odds say there is no role blocker.
 

Smash logic 

I got a town power for ya.

Unvote Vote AVM

Powa like a boss MF

If the Doc is on the Brett train, then it would be one of LK, Pooty, Pac and AVM. Remove the Doc and doesn't it make it a 1/3? Whereas AVM or Spoot is 1/2 (at worst)?

 

this may potentially give us the whole scum team 

That's what I said.

Also, your bit about my info clearing Hess and 80 is completely wrong. 

A scenario where one of you isn't scum doesn't exist. It's math.

Unvite
Vote AVM

No-brainer.

unvote

 

i will vote AVM again after Ape unvotes

good, you weren't the one I expected to pick up on that, maybe i'm wrong about you... 

unvote

vote AVM

 

 

<3 you guys

Only post by CTM since ape reveal 

unvote vote AVM

LOGIC BITCH

Sorry I was away guys, legitimately had a lot going on last evening after work.  I wasn't intentionally "hiding" like Crusher/AVM suggested.  

Just caught up.  I still like Pac for scum, but based on the Ape's reveal (which we'd have to assume means scum has a ton of power OR possibly 4 people on it if we believe it), and given that I think Spoot has been townier than AVM, this is the only vote to make:

Unvote vote AVM

unvote

true.

 

unvote for now

Reveal 

im doc

 

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ok so via D1 train it's down to 2 out of these 3 scum. AVM, Pac, Spoot

no, it's all three. His results said three on the train. Im not scum, so Take your pick. 

I want to reiterate that, along with AVM, LK and 80 were my two other suspects for scum. I always felt a town lean on Pac. When I flip town--and if Pac is lynched and HE does, too--you should all take a hard look at 80 and LK. LK especially. I was wrong about Leelou, but I'm not wrong about myself.

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Final Official Vote Count (D2) 
AVM (2) - LeelouHess
Ape (2) - 80LK
Leelou (6) - SmashAVMApeCrusher, CTMSpoot (2 non-town)
Hess (1) - Pac

FINAL VOTE COUNT (D1)
Brett (7) - LeelouApeLKBretSpootPacAVM (3 non-town)
Ape (1) - CTM
Leelou (1) - Smash
CTM (2) - Hess, 80
non-vote: CrusherVerb

 

By analysis of Ape reveal:

Lock scum: AVM, Spooge

not scum: CTM, smash, ape, crusher, LK, PAC 

Unproven: 80/Hess left 

 

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as long as ape is telling the truth, you're definitely scum. 

If you can't discredit ape then you have to die. 

Oh, well, why didn't you say that before? Should be plenty easy for a grizzled, wily vet like me.

Either Ape is fooling us all, or I was right and YOU are scum, buddying and hiding behind Ape.

Clever girl.

I'll see you in Hell.

 

:lol:

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