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The 3 most likely scenarios for 2016


Sperm Edwards

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With the Manning and Kaepernick news/threads on page one here, plus the combine going on, and with our own QB still not under contract, it got me wondering how these things would play out.  I feel reasonably confident one of the following scenarios will occur:

 

(If you think there are other scenarios that are more likely, please post your own predictions.)

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SCENARIO 1:

  1. Manning retires as expected and Denver lets Osweiller go as well.
  2. With an asking price of a 6th round pick, Denver trades for Kaepernick. Denver's team doctor realizes in his pre-trade physical that Kaepernick's vision was terrible but correctable. It turns out all of Kaepernick's problems were because his vision got worse and, inexplicably, it was never diagnosed or addressed in San Fran. He gets some contact lenses and then passes for 4600 yards, 36 TDs, 13 INTs plus another 800 + 7 TDs rushing and Denver repeats as SuperBowl champs.
  3. Unfazed by Denver's willingness to let him go in favor of a badly slumping Kaepernick, and gambling on a talent upgrade from Fitzpatrick we go after the higher upside Osweiller. We outbid 3 other teams and sign him a 5 year contract at $13M per with $26M guaranteed. 
  4. Osweiller kind of sucks, but doesn't fully crash and burn on the field, and shows just enough to ensure he starts all 16 games and Petty doesn't take a snap for the 2nd straight season. These teases of decent play further give Maccagnan & the coaching staff enough confidence to pass up on drafting a QB in the first 5 rounds in 2017. 
  5. Osweiller has a pretty bad 2017 but our defense helps us finish 8-8 so we don't pick until #16, where we draft a DE since Sheldon Richardson is holding out and demanding a $23M/year contract with $100M guaranteed. 
  6. Petty never really develops into starter material and we let him go. Chip Kelly takes a flier on him: in 2018 he wins their starting job over Fitzpatrick (who they picked up after we signed Osweiller) and Petty puts up 2013 Nick Foles stats. Osweiller ODs on coke while hanging out with Manziel in Vegas in mid-August and spends the 2018 season in rehab. Jets re-sign Geno Smith, citing he knows the system already, and he starts the season. In weeks 4 and 13, Smith invents two new ways to fumble the football that have never seen before. They end up #2 and #3 respectively on one of those "Most ____ plays" lists, still unable to overtake you-know-what play for #1.

 

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SCENARIO 2:

  1. We tag Wilkerson and trade him for Kaepernick and a 3rd round pick on the eve of free agency beginning.
  2. After that, Fitz gets picked up by the 49ers as their interim/bridge QB on a 3 year contract at $5.75M per. He puts up slightly better numbers than he did in 2015 and the 49ers improve to 10-6. Wilkerson is voted to the pro bowl behind his 16.5 sacks, 4 FF, and his recovering and returning 2 of them for game winning TDs that boost SF to the playoffs.
  3. Later citing he was the BAP, Maccagnan drafts us a CB at #20. We wait until round 6 to take a QB.
  4. The Texans draft Connor Cook 2 picks behind us at #22. After Hoyer goes on IR halfway through week 3, Cook comes in and is better than his even biggest supporters imagined. Houston wins 11 of their last 13 games, and make it to the Superbowl after the rookie passes for 438 yards and 5 TDs against the Patriots in the AFCCG. They then win the SB as well, with Cook earning MVP honors after besting Aaron Rodgers in a shootout. Cook is the obvious unanimous choice as ROY and finishes 2nd in league MVP voting.
  5. For the Jets, Kaepernick continues the terrible trend he's been on in SF. In week 9, after our 7th straight loss, Manish Mehta starts asking him snarky gotcha questions in the locker room. Kaepernick responds by popping Mehta in the face, then shoves him into the nearest locker and urinates on him. Goodell suspends Kaepernick indefinitely and Kraft uses newer blackmail pictures of Goodell to also dock the team our 2017 1st round pick (and of course a good franchise QB prospect was available where we would have picked). Oh, and Marcus Williams is named the starter over the rookie 6th CB we took instead of a QB. He plays out the season sandwiched between Milliner and McDougle for most of the year (until Milliner gets a papercut opening his paycheck and it sidelines him for the final 2 months of the season).

 

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SCENARIO 3:

  1. We turn down SF's trade offer of Kaepernick for a conditional 7th round pick. See Scenario 1 Line 2 above for the results of Kaepernick's 2016 season with Denver, who takes the same offer from SF that we turned down.
  2. We bring back Fitzpatrick on a 3 year contract at $14M/year with $20M guaranteed. 
  3. In each of the first 3 rounds, teams leapfrog us to take the (then) best QB available. It's leaked out that in all 3 cases, that QB was the BAP on our board. Two of them have decent to good rookie seasons and the third is a backup who looks like he's going to be a good one also.
  4. We don't take a QB until round 7 when we take someone expected to go a few rounds earlier. All the JetNation draftniks agree we stole a sleeper with the pick. He then has a horrible summer and spends the year on the practice squad as Geno Smith returns for a 4th season.
  5. Fitzpatrick comes back down to earth in 2016. Against this season's far more formidable schedule his numbers through week 10 are 1900 yards, 12 total TDs and 14 turnovers. I start 5 threads here lest anyone forget that 4 of those 12 TDs come in a rout against a Cleveland team that finishes 4-12, and all of Fitz's TDs come after were already up by 24 points courtesy of 3 TDs on defense and special teams. The other 9 starts he puts up 8 TDs and 14 turnovers, but it's reported Bowles and the team still "have faith" in him. In particular, both Brandon Marshall and Brandon Marshall sing his praises to reporters, as does Brandon Marshall. In the week 10 game, with the Jets down by 17 points with 3 minutes left, Bowles leaves Fitz in and he gets injured scrambling & trying for 2 more yards instead of sliding or just running out of bounds. Fitz goes on IR and starts the 2017 season on the PUP list.
  6. Geno Smith starts the rest of the season. He's still the #2 QB because all the Jets coaches say Petty is still too far behind. Geno has 1 decent game, 4 bad to so-so games, and finishes the season with a vintage stinker in week 17 where he sets an NFL record in the 2nd half by throwing 4 picks on 4 consecutive pass attempts. Bryce Petty finally comes in halfway through the 4th Q in that last game, which ends up being his only live action of the season, and the 6 plays called for Petty are 4 handoffs on 1st/2nd downs and 2 dumpoff attempts to his back on the 3rd downs.
  7. We finish the season 5-11, which lands us the #4 pick in the 2017 draft. Three QBs, with prototypical size, elite skill, and impeccable character and leadership qualities, have amazing college seasons and they go 1-2-3 in the draft. All 3 go on to become annual pro bowl selections. The one drafted #3 has a 1st ballot HOF career for the 49ers. We beat them by a FG in week 15 as Kelly benched all his key starters and we don't, which is how SF ended up picking 1 slot ahead of us.
  8. With the #4 pick we draft a 295 lb DE, who Maccagnan later claims was the highest rated player on our board all along.

 

 

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Why don't we add:

Rex and Rob Ryan create the best defense of all time and win 4 consecutive SB's, the Dolphins hire Jeff Weeks after the 4 year run and it turns out that he is a defensive savant as well, and the Dolphins end up following the Bills 4 year run with a 3 year run of their own.

And Jif, stoic, Slats, Sperm, and other Rex lovers each post a daily I told you so thread on JN.

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5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

SCENARIO 1:

  1. Manning retires as expected and Denver lets Osweiller go as well.
  2. With an asking price of a 6th round pick, Denver trades for Kaepernick. Denver's team doctor realizes in his pre-trade physical that Kaepernick's vision was terrible but correctable. It turns out all of Kaepernick's problems were because his vision got worse and, inexplicably, it was never diagnosed or addressed in San Fran. He gets some contact lenses and then passes for 4600 yards, 36 TDs, 13 INTs plus another 800 + 7 TDs rushing and Denver repeats as SuperBowl champs.
  3. Unfazed by Denver's willingness to let him go in favor of a badly slumping Kaepernick, and gambling on a talent upgrade from Fitzpatrick we go after the higher upside Osweiller. We outbid 3 other teams and sign him a 5 year contract at $13M per with $26M guaranteed. 
  4. Osweiller kind of sucks, but doesn't fully crash and burn on the field, and shows just enough to ensure he starts all 16 games and Petty doesn't take a snap for the 2nd straight season. These teases of decent play further give Maccagnan & the coaching staff enough confidence to pass up on drafting a QB in the first 5 rounds in 2017. 
  5. Osweiller has a pretty bad 2017 but our defense helps us finish 8-8 so we don't pick until #16, where we draft a DE since Sheldon Richardson is holding out and demanding a $23M/year contract with $100M guaranteed. 
  6. Petty never really develops into starter material and we let him go. Chip Kelly takes a flier on him: in 2018 he wins their starting job over Fitzpatrick (who they picked up after we signed Osweiller) and Petty puts up 2013 Nick Foles stats. Osweiller ODs on coke while hanging out with Manziel in Vegas in mid-August and spends the 2018 season in rehab. Jets re-sign Geno Smith, citing he knows the system already, and he starts the season. In weeks 4 and 13, Smith invents two new ways to fumble the football that have never seen before. They end up #2 and #3 respectively on one of those "Most ____ plays" lists, still unable to overtake you-know-what play for #1.

 

Really?!?!??

5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

SCENARIO 2:

  1. We tag Wilkerson and trade him for Kaepernick and a 3rd round pick on the eve of free agency beginning.
  2. After that, Fitz gets picked up by the 49ers as their interim/bridge QB on a 3 year contract at $5.75M per. He puts up slightly better numbers than he did in 2015 and the 49ers improve to 10-6. Wilkerson is voted to the pro bowl behind his 16.5 sacks, 4 FF, and his recovering and returning 2 of them for game winning TDs that boost SF to the playoffs.
  3. Later citing he was the BAP, Maccagnan drafts us a CB at #20. We wait until round 6 to take a QB.
  4. The Texans draft Connor Cook 2 picks behind us at #22. After Hoyer goes on IR halfway through week 3, Cook comes in and is better than his even biggest supporters imagined. Houston wins 11 of their last 13 games, and make it to the Superbowl after the rookie passes for 438 yards and 5 TDs against the Patriots. They then win the SB as well, with Cook earning MVP honors after besting Aaron Rodgers in a shootout. Cook is the obvious unanimous choice as ROY and finishes 2nd in league MVP voting.
  5. For the Jets, Kaepernick continues the terrible trend he's been on in SF. In week 9, after our 7th straight loss, Manish Mehta starts asking him snarky gotcha questions in the locker room. Kaepernick responds by popping Mehta in the face, then shoves him into the nearest locker and urinates on him. Goodell suspends Kaepernick indefinitely and Kraft uses newer blackmail pictures of Goodell to also dock the team our 2017 1st round pick (and of course a good franchise QB prospect was available where we would have picked). 

 

Come on! why bother watching this team if you are THAT pessimistic?

5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

SCENARIO 3:

  1. We turn down SF's trade offer of Kaepernick for a conditional 7th round pick. See Scenario 1 Line 2 above for the results of Kaepernick's 2016 season with Denver, who takes the same offer from SF that we turned down.
  2. We bring back Fitzpatrick on a 3 year contract at $14M/year with $20M guaranteed. 
  3. In each of the first 3 rounds, teams leapfrog us to take the (then) best QB available. It's leaked out that in all 3 cases, that QB was the BAP on our board. Two of them have decent to good rookie seasons and the third is a backup who looks like he's going to be a good one also.
  4. We don't take a QB until round 7 when we take someone expected to go a few rounds earlier. All the JetNation draftniks agree we stole a sleeper with the pick. He then has a horrible summer and spends the year on the practice squad as Geno Smith returns for a 4th season.
  5. Fitzpatrick comes back down to earth in 2016. Against this season's far more formidable schedule his numbers through week 10 are 1900 yards, 12 total TDs and 14 turnovers. I start 5 threads here lest anyone forget that 4 of those 13 TDs come in a rout against a Cleveland team that finishes 4-12, and all of Fitz's TDs come after were already up by 24 points courtesy of 3 TDs on defense and special teams. The other 9 starts he puts up 8 TDs and 14 turnovers, but it's reported Bowles and the team still "have faith" in him. In particular, both Brandon Marshall and Brandon Marshall sing his praises to reporters, as does Brandon Marshall. In the week 10 game, with the Jets down by 17 points with 3 minutes left, Bowles leaves Fitz in and he gets injured scrambling & trying for 2 more yards instead of sliding or just running out of bounds. Fitz goes on IR and starts the 2017 season on the PUP list.
  6. Geno Smith starts the rest of the season. He's still the #2 QB because all the Jets coaches say Petty is still too far behind. Geno has 1 decent game, 4 bad to so-so games, and finishes the season with a vintage stinker in week 17 where he sets an NFL record in the 2nd half by throwing 4 picks on 4 consecutive pass attempts. Bryce Petty finally comes in halfway through the 4th Q in that last game, which ends up being his only live action of the season, and the 6 plays called for Petty are 4 handoffs on 1st/2nd downs and 2 dumpoff attempts to his back on the 3rd downs.
  7. We finish the season 5-11, which lands us the #4 pick in the 2017 draft. Three QBs, with prototypical size, elite skill, and impeccable character and leadership qualities, have amazing college seasons and they go 1-2-3 in the draft. All 3 go on to become annual pro bowl selections. The one drafted #3 has a 1st ballot HOF career for the 49ers. We beat them by a FG in week 15 as Kelly benched all his key starters and we don't, which is how SF ended up picking 1 slot ahead of us.
  8. With the #4 pick we draft a 295 lb DE, who Maccagnan later claims was the highest rated player on our board all along.

 

 

This is what I think of and respond to each of your "scenarios:"

giphy.gif

 

@JetBlue is the Old guy.

 

B)

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6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Congratulations on being the only person who took this seriously.

Congratulations on being suckered into taking a Half Baked gif (greatest scene in movie, BTW)  as an earnest reply to your sad SOJ fantasy. 

As @nj meadowlands just stated, it shows your sick and sadistic mind. :)

Apologies if my reply and sense of humor, OBVIOUSLY, differs from yours. 

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20 minutes ago, Gas2No99 said:

Congratulations on being suckered into taking a Half Baked gif (greatest scene in movie, BTW)  as an earnest reply to your sad SOJ fantasy. 

As @nj meadowlands just stated, it shows your sick and sadistic mind. :)

Apologies if my reply and sense of humor, OBVIOUSLY, differs from yours. 

First, you replied with a bit more than a gif. I think it's clear you took it seriously. That I was seriously saying not only that Kaepernick suddenly changes from a bad QB instead of an awesome one, but it's because he needs contact lenses and the 49ers don't check their players' vision? Connor Cook carries the Texans to the Super Bowl as a rookie, where he out-gunslings Aaron Rodgers? Not just that, but these are the 3 most likely scenarios? C'mon how you could you possibly take this seriously?

I was just having fun with some obviously ludicrous and wholly unrealistic "Ugh, with our luck" scenarios.  Sick and sadistic? You must never leave the house, never watch the news, never have seen a war documentary or a movie with truly disturbing scenes, etc. if this truly offended you so. Can I visit you in Neverland? I'll bring cookies and milk. ;) 

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11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

First, you replied with a bit more than a gif. I think it's clear you took it seriously. That I was seriously saying not only that Kaepernick suddenly changes from a bad QB instead of an awesome one, but it's because he needs contact lenses and the 49ers don't check their players' vision? Connor Cook carries the Texans to the Super Bowl as a rookie, where he out-gunslings Aaron Rodgers? Not just that, but these are the 3 most likely scenarios? C'mon how you could you possibly take this seriously?

I was just having fun with some obviously ludicrous and wholly unrealistic "Ugh, with our luck" scenarios.  Sick and sadistic? You must never leave the house, never watch the news, never have seen a war documentary or a movie with truly disturbing scenes, etc. if this truly offended you so. Can I visit you in Neverland? I'll bring cookies and milk. ;) 

LOL @Sperm Edwards :lol:

who's taking who seriously? Son, don't make assumptions about people you have never met and only can interpret through an internet Jets fan discussion forum. Just as I know nothing about you, don't assume anything about me. But yes, Sick & Sadistic in the CONTEXT and SCOPE of talking Jets Football and 2016 predictions, I stand by my words: 

maxresdefault.jpg

 

BTW, I prefer Chocolate Chip & Macadamia nut cookies. Whole or 2% Milk. 

Sadly, Michael is dead and NEITHER of us can ever go there. Have good life. :D

 

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

2 secs ago BigDikSwingLow aka Gas2No99 said: "Come on! why bother watching this team if you are THAT pessimistic?"

:) 

You should really switch to skim, or at least 1%. No argument on CC & Macadamia nut cookies. Those are pretty awesome.

That quote you cite was part of the build up. Again, apologies if taken seriously as I just REALLY wanted to use that burger scene from HalfBaked and apply it where I can.

Skim and 1% are gross. As my English teacher Mr. Aune told me in the cafeteria back in middle school by the milk machine: "Fat is where the FLAVOR is, just don't ingest too much of it at one time. Same goes for women."

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1 minute ago, Gas2No99 said:

That quote you cite was part of the build up. Again, apologies if taken seriously as I just REALLY wanted to use that burger scene from HalfBaked and apply it where I can.

Skim and 1% are gross. As my English teacher Mr. Aune told me in the cafeteria back in middle school by the milk machine: "Fat is where the FLAVOR is, just don't ingest too much of it at one time. Same goes for women."

It just takes getting used to. When I first tried it I thought it was like drinking cloudy water.

And now seeing the post above mine here, I may owe you an apology. Someone else has also taken this seriously.

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1 minute ago, bealeb319 said:

If we franchise tag Wilkerson wouldn't they have to trade us 2 first round picks to get him?

The whole thread is an unserious joke (also unfunny but I have almost no filter).

However, to your question, yes and no. Yes, they would have to if we demanded it. But a team looking to get something for a player - one they aren't going to be able to lock up themselves - will usually settle for less compensation. Getting a pair of #1 picks isn't too common. A #1 by itself, or a #1 and change, is usually enough to satisfy the original team and make the deal.

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The whole thread is an unserious joke (also unfunny but I have almost no filter).

However, to your question, yes and no. Yes, they would have to if we demanded it. But a team looking to get something for a player - one they aren't going to be able to lock up themselves - will usually settle for less compensation. Getting a pair of #1 picks isn't too common. A #1 by itself, or a #1 and change, is usually enough to satisfy the original team and make the deal.

I was able to figure that part out. :) If Idzik were still our GM this thread might be far less funny.

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8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

SCENARIO 3:

  1. We turn down SF's trade offer of Kaepernick for a conditional 7th round pick. See Scenario 1 Line 2 above for the results of Kaepernick's 2016 season with Denver, who takes the same offer from SF that we turned down.
  2. We bring back Fitzpatrick on a 3 year contract at $14M/year with $20M guaranteed. 
  3. In each of the first 3 rounds, teams leapfrog us to take the (then) best QB available. It's leaked out that in all 3 cases, that QB was the BAP on our board. Two of them have decent to good rookie seasons and the third is a backup who looks like he's going to be a good one also.
  4. We don't take a QB until round 7 when we take someone expected to go a few rounds earlier. All the JetNation draftniks agree we stole a sleeper with the pick. He then has a horrible summer and spends the year on the practice squad as Geno Smith returns for a 4th season.
  5. Fitzpatrick comes back down to earth in 2016. Against this season's far more formidable schedule his numbers through week 10 are 1900 yards, 12 total TDs and 14 turnovers. I start 5 threads here lest anyone forget that 4 of those 13 TDs come in a rout against a Cleveland team that finishes 4-12, and all of Fitz's TDs come after were already up by 24 points courtesy of 3 TDs on defense and special teams. The other 9 starts he puts up 8 TDs and 14 turnovers, but it's reported Bowles and the team still "have faith" in him. In particular, both Brandon Marshall and Brandon Marshall sing his praises to reporters, as does Brandon Marshall. In the week 10 game, with the Jets down by 17 points with 3 minutes left, Bowles leaves Fitz in and he gets injured scrambling & trying for 2 more yards instead of sliding or just running out of bounds. Fitz goes on IR and starts the 2017 season on the PUP list.
  6. Geno Smith starts the rest of the season. He's still the #2 QB because all the Jets coaches say Petty is still too far behind. Geno has 1 decent game, 4 bad to so-so games, and finishes the season with a vintage stinker in week 17 where he sets an NFL record in the 2nd half by throwing 4 picks on 4 consecutive pass attempts. Bryce Petty finally comes in halfway through the 4th Q in that last game, which ends up being his only live action of the season, and the 6 plays called for Petty are 4 handoffs on 1st/2nd downs and 2 dumpoff attempts to his back on the 3rd downs.
  7. We finish the season 5-11, which lands us the #4 pick in the 2017 draft. Three QBs, with prototypical size, elite skill, and impeccable character and leadership qualities, have amazing college seasons and they go 1-2-3 in the draft. All 3 go on to become annual pro bowl selections. The one drafted #3 has a 1st ballot HOF career for the 49ers. We beat them by a FG in week 15 as Kelly benched all his key starters and we don't, which is how SF ended up picking 1 slot ahead of us.
  8. With the #4 pick we draft a 295 lb DE, who Maccagnan later claims was the highest rated player on our board all along.

 

 

maybe, depends

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12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

SCENARIO 1:

  1. Manning retires as expected and Denver lets Osweiller go as well.
  2. With an asking price of a 6th round pick, Denver trades for Kaepernick. Denver's team doctor realizes in his pre-trade physical that Kaepernick's vision was terrible but correctable. It turns out all of Kaepernick's problems were because his vision got worse and, inexplicably, it was never diagnosed or addressed in San Fran. He gets some contact lenses and then passes for 4600 yards, 36 TDs, 13 INTs plus another 800 + 7 TDs rushing and Denver repeats as SuperBowl champs.
  3. Unfazed by Denver's willingness to let him go in favor of a badly slumping Kaepernick, and gambling on a talent upgrade from Fitzpatrick we go after the higher upside Osweiller. We outbid 3 other teams and sign him a 5 year contract at $13M per with $26M guaranteed. 
  4. Osweiller kind of sucks, but doesn't fully crash and burn on the field, and shows just enough to ensure he starts all 16 games and Petty doesn't take a snap for the 2nd straight season. These teases of decent play further give Maccagnan & the coaching staff enough confidence to pass up on drafting a QB in the first 5 rounds in 2017. 
  5. Osweiller has a pretty bad 2017 but our defense helps us finish 8-8 so we don't pick until #16, where we draft a DE since Sheldon Richardson is holding out and demanding a $23M/year contract with $100M guaranteed. 
  6. Petty never really develops into starter material and we let him go. Chip Kelly takes a flier on him: in 2018 he wins their starting job over Fitzpatrick (who they picked up after we signed Osweiller) and Petty puts up 2013 Nick Foles stats. Osweiller ODs on coke while hanging out with Manziel in Vegas in mid-August and spends the 2018 season in rehab. Jets re-sign Geno Smith, citing he knows the system already, and he starts the season. In weeks 4 and 13, Smith invents two new ways to fumble the football that have never seen before. They end up #2 and #3 respectively on one of those "Most ____ plays" lists, still unable to overtake you-know-what play for #1.

 

 

 

Osweiller doing coke with Manziel was the second best part of your post. Kaepernick simply needing a visit to LensCrafters fixing him had me rolling.

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