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Odds of a Fitz return


AFJF
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How likely is it Fitz is back in 2016?  

77 members have voted

  1. 1. Chances Fitz is back next year

    • 100%
    • 75%
    • 50%
    • poor attempt at humor/nonsensical/obscure number...ie 37%
    • 0%....he's gone


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Seem more likely now than at season's end that we could see Fitz play elsewhere next season.

What do you think the odds are if him returning?

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i'm actually putting it at 50%.  i think mccags is not going to do anything to sabotage their ability to keep younger talent or impede their ability to sign others with an extra large fitz contract.  

i also wonder if the $$ of the FA qb market is making mccags rethink what they do about getting a qb in the draft, which round, and how creative he may want to be with mo wilk and draft picks. 

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i'm actually putting it at 50%.  i think mccags is not going to do anything to sabotage their ability to keep younger talent or impede their ability to sign others with an extra large fitz contract.  

i also wonder if the $$ of the FA qb market is making mccags rethink what they do about getting a qb in the draft, which round, and how creative he may want to be with mo wilk and draft picks. 

Personally I would hope they have longer term plans and visions in place, and not start to alter these based on one negotiation that might be working out a bit trickier.

You don't change your mind on trading a star player just because the market for your free agent changes by a couple of million.

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21 minutes ago, heymangold said:

i can't really put a number on it.  i think we're kinda screwed after philly gave that trash bradford a huge deal.  but i think fitz likes playing here, likes marshall and decker and likes being the guy here.  i think he'll be back.

I'm not sure Bradford's deal makes any difference.  If anything it helps the Jets as there's one less team in search of a QB.  The Jets ultimately only have to pay him more than what another team is willing to pay.   I'm not sure there's another team ready to throw 8 figures at him.

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3 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Personally I would hope they have longer term plans and visions in place, and not start to alter these based on one negotiation that might be working out a bit trickier.

You don't change your mind on trading a star player just because the market for your free agent changes by a couple of million.

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mccags has already said that he embraces ron wolf's philosophy that you draft a qb every year until you find one.  the question is, which round and which qb.  his approach may well be dictated by whether they keep fitz for 2 more years or if he's gone and all of a sudden he's back where idzik was with qbs.

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I'm staying put at 100%.  I still think the waiting game here is more Macc's methodical and deliberate approach to these things.  I feel he is confident that Fitz will come back at a reasonable deal.  Fitz may want to test the waters and see what value he has, which I don't think is much honestly looking around the league at where he could immediately start.  Especially with RG3 possibly getting some serious suitors interested in him right now.

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If Fitz understands that he needs the Jets more than they need him, and will accept a McCown type deal, he comes back 100%

If Fitz is slightly bullheaded, and Mac is willing to overpay slightly, say $7 Mil per, he comes back 50%

If Fitz let's his agent overvalue him, and Mac laughs at his agents face, he comes back 0%

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6 minutes ago, hawk said:

If Fitz understands that he needs the Jets more than they need him, and will accept a McCown type deal, he comes back 100%

If Fitz is slightly bullheaded, and Mac is willing to overpay slightly, say $7 Mil per, he comes back 50%

If Fitz let's his agent overvalue him, and Mac laughs at his agents face, he comes back 0%

7 million is not an overpay. It's an underpay. The Jets need Fitz, if they want to compete this season, just as much as he needs them to thrive. It's very symbiotic.

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6 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

7 million is not an overpay. It's an underpay. The Jets need Fitz, if they want to compete this season, just as much as he needs them to thrive. It's very symbiotic.

In today's market, an average QB gets $15 million per year.  In fact, there are 20 QBs at more than $15 million per year.  Sanchez gets $5.5 million as a backup to Bradford, who gets $18 million. The numbers are shocking.  see the full list here  Fitz is going to get $10 million or more.

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3 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

7 million is not an overpay. It's an underpay. The Jets need Fitz, if they want to compete this season, just as much as he needs them to thrive. It's very symbiotic.

Fitzpatrick has shown season after season after season that he is not a high level starting QB.  He is a hold the fort down type, and can come in and start as needed.  He should be brought back, and he should be given a chance to compete for the starting role, whether that is with Geno, Byrce, or a new draft pick.  That does not command starter money.

Someone said in another thread that smart teams don't sign on past performance, but what they can do moving foward.  Well, Fitzpatrick was signed to a deal for what they thought they could do, and that got him a $3 Million per deal.  So, either a dumb team pays him based on last year, ignoring the previous years, or a smart team says the market is set for a hold the fort type, such as McCown, and pays him $5 Mil per with some inflation.

 

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I voted for 50% because the bottom line is that the Jets still haven't signed him and might allow him to go to free agency. I'm a little concerned about it because I think it's for our best interests to re-sign him. We'll see but if Mac lets him go if he does he's taking a big chance. 

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26 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

I the Jets have to pay anywhere near 10 mil per to have Ryan Fitzpatrick as our starting QB next yr then I hope we let him walk.

Remember, its not the amount, its the percentage of the cap.

If the cap is $120 and you pay your QB $10 then its 12 %.
If the cap is $155 then $10 is only 6.45 % of the cap.

Your qb only taking up 6.45% of your cap is great.

 

 

Its a much bigger problem having a DL take up 9.68 % of your cap.

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Call it whatever you want, but I am not paying a guy who's at the tail end of his career 10+ mil per to maybe be someone's 1st round sacrifice .  I have seen the losing, I have enjoyed some good winning years and now I want to win the whole darn thing . I have no interest in having a nice season anymore .

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31 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

Call it whatever you want, but I am not paying a guy who's at the tail end of his career 10+ mil per to maybe be someone's 1st round sacrifice .  I have seen the losing, I have enjoyed some good winning years and now I want to win the whole darn thing . I have no interest in having a nice season anymore .

What he said!! 

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42 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

Call it whatever you want, but I am not paying a guy who's at the tail end of his career 10+ mil per to maybe be someone's 1st round sacrifice .  I have seen the losing, I have enjoyed some good winning years and now I want to win the whole darn thing . I have no interest in having a nice season anymore .

the problem with this line of thinking is that there are 32 teams who want to win every year, just as bad as the Jets. And losing 10 games a year doesn't get a team closer it gets them further away. The Browns, Titans etc have been rebuilding for years. 

 

let's imagine your worst case that Fitz gets them to the playoffs and loses the first round. The next year, with or without Fitz, that team has players with playoff experience. Then maybe they win 2 games in the playoffs. It's called building a program. The Ravens had to do it for years before they finally broke through and beat the Pats in the AFCCG. It's building toward a goal that is a winning formula. not tearing everything down every 5 years. 

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48 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

Call it whatever you want, but I am not paying a guy who's at the tail end of his career 10+ mil per to maybe be someone's 1st round sacrifice .  I have seen the losing, I have enjoyed some good winning years and now I want to win the whole darn thing . I have no interest in having a nice season anymore .

OK, then what do you think they should pay him?   Or is it not at all?

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Just now, Joe Jets fan said:

OK, then what do you think they should pay him?   Or is it not at all?

Since you asked, with the way money is being thrown around for the likes of garbage QBing , I think it's going to take more than 10 mil per to resign Fitzpatrick . That's  too much for a guy who odds are will never have the kind of season he had last yr.  Take this and see if you can deal with it.  With similar talent to what the Jets had last yr, Mark Sanchez was able to defeat the Brady led NE Patriots and the  Manning Led Colts  and advance the Jets to the AFC championship game twice.  Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't defeat a crumbling Bills team led by Tyrod Taylor  with everything on the line while having a career yr.  How is it ever going to get better .

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1 minute ago, Tinstar said:

Since you asked, with the way money is being thrown around for the likes of garbage QBing , I think it's going to take more than 10 mil per to resign Fitzpatrick . That's  too much for a guy who odds are will never have the kind of season he had last yr.  Take this and see if you can deal with it.  With similar talent to what the Jets had last yr, Mark Sanchez was able to defeat the Brady led NE Patriots and the  Manning Led Colts  and advance the Jets to the AFC championship game twice.  Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't defeat a crumbling Bills team led by Tyrod Taylor  with everything on the line while having a career yr.  How is it ever going to get better .

That does not answer my question at all.   Just tells me your a Sanchaz fan.

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We all know Fitz is not the LT answer and landed here as a contingency plan if Geno were to EPICALLY fail as a starter or get severely injured. The starting 2015 QB job was gifted to #14, and he took FULL advantage of the opportunity - all the power to him for that. We MAY have to pay him somewhere in the realm of $10M-$12M/year if we TRULY intend for him to return as the incumbent starter. As long as MacCags doesn't commit long-term (IMO more than 2 years) than the remuneration should be fine. I don't see why the Jets, as much as I disagree w/the possibility, wouldn't take the same exact approach they did as last year and focus on Geno as the #1, if Fitz decides to walk for MORE $ and MacCags can not land a better QB to possibly start in 2016; Fitzy was a luxury the FO didn't expect. I would HATE that scenario, but from a managerial POV, it makes sense and they're not overpaying for a proven JAG career back-up QB who hit the lotto that one year as a starter. Hell, even VinnyTestaverde never replicated what he did for us in 1998 and by 2002 we were all calling for his head and regretting the contract:

"Testaverde, whose strong performance last season was no less surprising than the Jets', signed a three-year deal that included an upfront bonus of $6.2 million and millions more in guaranteed income -- an unusual development in a sport in which most contracts are not guaranteed. 

Over all, Testaverde signed for $19.47 million in a three-year deal. Incentives, most of them based on team performance, could swell the contract to $27 million."

Dont' repeat the SAME mistake with Fitzy, as much as i loved his 2015 grittiness. We MUST find a QB - either trade or Draft who can become the eventual starter after either Fitzy leaves in '16 or near future or Geno leaves/cut/not-tendered in '16 or '17. Hopefully Petty is that guy, I'm ALL IN for Kevin Hogan!!!!!!!

 

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Mac seems more willing to spend than I am, i.e. the Cro & Revis deals.  So even if Fitz is a bit overpriced due to market conditions I think he pays.  So, 75%  chance Fitz stays.  

I don't like it but that is my expectation as of now.  IMHO anything over $8-9m + a few $m in incentives is too much.

 

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38 minutes ago, bitonti said:

the problem with this line of thinking is that there are 32 teams who want to win every year, just as bad as the Jets. And losing 10 games a year doesn't get a team closer it gets them further away. The Browns, Titans etc have been rebuilding for years. 

 

let's imagine your worst case that Fitz gets them to the playoffs and loses the first round. The next year, with or without Fitz, that team has players with playoff experience. Then maybe they win 2 games in the playoffs. It's called building a program. The Ravens had to do it for years before they finally broke through and beat the Pats in the AFCCG. It's building toward a goal that is a winning formula. not tearing everything down every 5 years. 

This team that Fitz took to the playoffs, and is no longer a part of, who's the QB and are we starting over yet again .  You really think this Guy can take the Jets to the playoffs when he couldn't after having a career yr last yr  ?

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