Paxton Lynch Pro Day assessment

[Jet Nut]

29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I actually think the tide has turned in that regard and it is moving in the other direction.  The financial changes to top picks now mean a team does not have to start a guy right away.  A good many of the QBs the last few years that have stared early it was not intended that they would start that early injuries and such have forced it.

I think the Jets for instance if they pick a QB at 20 will still go with Fitzpatrick, as long as he doesn't get hurt he will be the Qb this coming year and perish to start next year all depending on results and I'd be totally fine with that. 

Exactly.

Its not like years when you gave a Russell 60 mil and couldnt sit him and pay another QB to start while he learned for more than a handful of games.

[Beerfish]

7 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

I'm fine with this too, but I think the general sentiment would be to start him right away.  And if the Jets didn't start him, most fans would be screaming for the rookie QB to start after even the smallest of hiccups by Fitzpatrick. 

Totally true.  I for the 1st time in a number of years though feel that our coach and GM wouldn't cave into this type of pressure.

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, PepPep said:

Whether or not there was a legitimate competition, I really don;t know how you can downplay Fitz's season. He had a great season for any QB, not 'for FItz'. 'for Fitz' he had the best season he has EVER had. HE was 10th in the league in TDs (tied with Aaron Rodgers), 15th in the league in yards (ahead of Cam Newton), he threw 15INTs, which is not great but really not awful. Dude. He had a great season. And the QB position was very much easily addressable, all the Jets needed to do was up their offer to Fitz if they really wanted to bring him back, I'm talking early on in the offseason before they signed a bunch of other players, filling in holes but also taking up most of their cap. 

If they made re-signing Fitz top priority, he would be signed. Period. They would have come to a middle ground at some point. Obviously, they don't believe Fitz is worth more than what they have offered him (although now they are asking D'Brick to take a pay cut so they can up the offer) AND/OR they have faith in Geno to start AND/OR they feel they can get a vet of equal value in FA or via trade. BUT- given that they have yet to sign or trade for a vet, tells me that they have a certain comfort level with Geno starting. Furthermore, there are ZERO QBs in this draft (in my opinion) that can come in and start. So that pretty much eliminates the notion than the Jets plan to draft a QB and have him start over Geno. If they draft someone it will be a developmental prospect who will have to sit in '16.

I'm just going by what I see happening. Not my opinion on whether Geno is a capable starter or if Fitz is not as good as he looked last season or whatever. 

Its very possible that the Jets draft a QB (Lynch?) and end up re-signing Fitz by upping their offer, then CUTTING Geno. Recent events suggest that this may be the direction they want to go. But as of right now, its looking like Geno is their plan B if they can't get Fitz at THEIR price- which suggests to me they are comfortable with Geno starting.     

That is not a great season. He was a lot closer to being the league leader in INTs than in TDs or yards. You're cherry-picking the stats you like and are conveniently leaving out his bad ones. Plus there are the other things that stats don't show, such as numerous awful plays - because he has such poor field vision - that get merely marked up as a routine incomplete pass. And please, Cam Newton? Take Marshall & Decker away from Fitz and replace them with Olsen & Ginn and then tell me how he's "ahead" of Cam Newton. It would be a nonstop exercise in excuse-making why he threw 10 fewer TDs, 5-10 more interceptions, and 500-1000 fewer yards.  If you want to compare him to others, at least have the intellectual honesty to admit that he had crazy opportunities & advantages that maybe 1 or 2 others (if any) had league-wide. That is why the only official offer he's received from anyone is the Jets' $7M/year deal.

His numbers were fluff. When faced with truly more difficult tasks, like Houston, or with all the marbles on the line vs even a half-decent defense, he crumbled. He unnecessarily and mindlessly got himself injured in Oakland (a loss he'd have surely been absolved for had he stayed in). He did not have a great season simply because he put up some fluffy numbers in the league's easiest QB-stats situation. And with all those advantages, and the generally awful QB talent that is out there, he still wasn't even a top 10 QB. Since when is not-even top 10 among 32 teams "great" anyway? Less than 32 teams, really, when one considers that a handful of teams had to play round robin due to QB injuries or having no real QB at all.

What he had was a great season for Ryan Fitzpatrick. If a true top 10 QB had a season like that, people would say he's slipping and not as good as he used to be.

[Sperm Edwards]

28 minutes ago, thshadow said:

You and your silly fanduel way of thinking - only draft him if he's going to become a good QB.  Screw that - this isn't fantasy football.  I only want to draft him if he's going to win a ring with us.  

Crap. You win.

[Pcola]

47 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

 

Unfortunately the days of developing players, particularly QB's is over, for the most part.    I think first rounders should be day one starters, especially players picked at the top of the draft.  This is a win now business which puts a lot of pressure on teams not to swing and miss on their first round picks.  Not only can't they swing and miss, they need their high draft picks to have an immediate impact. 

I have to disagree with the 1st round= instant starter.  How many first round picks from last years draft started right away?   I think that way of thinking is too short sighted.  If your Bill Parcells the GM, and you are only planning on being with the team three years, then yes.  You need instant impact.  

With the situation that Macc is in, he will be given a longer leash because of the short turnover we had with Idzik.  

[Sperm Edwards]

7 minutes ago, Pcola said:

I have to disagree with the 1st round= instant starter.  How many first round picks from last years draft started right away?   I think that way of thinking is too short sighted.  If your Bill Parcells the GM, and you are only planning on being with the team three years, then yes.  You need instant impact.  

With the situation that Macc is in, he will be given a longer leash because of the short turnover we had with Idzik.  

Agree, especially at QB. But one of the distinguishing factors between a 1st rounder and a later round pick is how quickly he'll be usable on that cheap rookie deal. If they're such big projects then they almost always go later. 

Sitting for 2 years is one thing if he's taken between rounds 2-4. Sitting that long in round 1 should only occur if the team still has Brett Favre playing at a high level, or something like that. 1 year, or most of that rookie season, is totally ok. Eli was the #1 pick in the country, with the best pedigree lineage of any QB ever, and even he sat for the first half of his rookie season (and looked like crap & killed any playoffs hopes that season when he was inserted).

So I wouldn't get hysterical about him sitting for half or all of his rookie season. But by the 2nd half of year 2, at the latest, he should be on the field as the team's QB.

[Mainejet]

I disagree with the idea of drafting a first day starter if the Jets have multiple picks. If the Jets only have the 20th overall? Then I think it is important to get a first day starter because this team is attempting to get better. If we got a developmental pick, that does not help us in the short term at all.

But if we trade Mo we'll have likely more than one first day pick. Then I would be happy with drafting a guy that needed work in the 1st round.  

[PepPep]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

That is not a great season. He was a lot closer to being the league leader in INTs than in TDs or yards. You're cherry-picking the stats you like and are conveniently leaving out his bad ones. Plus there are the other things that stats don't show, such as numerous awful plays - because he has such poor field vision - that get merely marked up as a routine incomplete pass. And please, Cam Newton? Take Marshall & Decker away from Fitz and replace them with Olsen & Ginn and then tell me how he's "ahead" of Cam Newton. It would be a nonstop exercise in excuse-making why he threw 10 fewer TDs, 5-10 more interceptions, and 500-1000 fewer yards.  If you want to compare him to others, at least have the intellectual honesty to admit that he had crazy opportunities & advantages that maybe 1 or 2 others (if any) had league-wide. That is why the only official offer he's received from anyone is the Jets' $7M/year deal.

His numbers were fluff. When faced with truly more difficult tasks, like Houston, or with all the marbles on the line with even a half-decent defense, he crumbled. He unnecessarily and mindlessly got himself injured in Oakland (a loss he'd have been absolved for had he stayed in). He did not have a great season simply because he put up some fluffy numbers in the league's easiest QB-stats situation. And with all those advantages, and the generally awful QB talent that is out there, he still wasn't even a top 10 QB. Since when is not-even top 10 among 32 teams "great" anyway? Less than 32 teams, really, when one considers that a handful of teams had to play round robin due to QB injuries or having no real QB at all.

What he had was a great season for Ryan Fitzpatrick. If a true top 10 QB had a season like that, people would say he's slipping and not as good as he used to be.

The thing is, I never said he WAS a top ten QB or he was a great QB in general. I'm simply saying he had a great season. I'm not comparing him to cam newton. I'm simply listing stats. I'm not saying he didn't have great WRs, I'm not talking about the player. I'm talking about the numbers he put up. It depends on how you look at, obviously. He's not better than Rodgers or Newton, hes not a top 10 QB. He simply had a great year- statistically. I'm not analyzing his throws or the competition he played against or which games he won and lost. All i;m trying to say is that he had a great season. He did. Why are you taking that away from him? I mentioned the INTs. I'm not cherry picking.He threw a lot of INTs and probably woudl have thrown more if some were not dropped. But I'm just going by the most obvious stats- yrds, tds, ints. Simple. I'm not getting into analytics or anything. The guy had a great season. Jeez. Who cares if his numbers were fluff. That's not the point. It has nothing to do with what teams are WILLING to pay him either. Fitz had a similar year to D.Carr, most would say Carr had a great year. I dunno.  

Again, all I'm saying is that he had a great season. He did. Obviously, we have a difference of opinion as to what it means to have a 'great season' for a QB, which is fine. But you're getting way too far into the player, the team he was on, what his contract negotiations are, and how he compares to elite NFL QBs...I'm simply talking about the numbers he put up this season.    

[Sperm Edwards]

4 hours ago, PepPep said:

The thing is, I never said he WAS a top ten QB or he was a great QB in general. I'm simply saying he had a great season. I'm not comparing him to cam newton. I'm simply listing stats. I'm not saying he didn't have great WRs, I'm not talking about the player. I'm talking about the numbers he put up. It depends on how you look at, obviously. He's not better than Rodgers or Newton, hes not a top 10 QB. He simply had a great year- statistically. I'm not analyzing his throws or the competition he played against or which games he won and lost. All i;m trying to say is that he had a great season. He did. Why are you taking that away from him? I mentioned the INTs. I'm not cherry picking.He threw a lot of INTs and probably woudl have thrown more if some were not dropped. But I'm just going by the most obvious stats- yrds, tds, ints. Simple. I'm not getting into analytics or anything. The guy had a great season. Jeez. Who cares if his numbers were fluff. That's not the point. It has nothing to do with what teams are WILLING to pay him either. Fitz had a similar year to D.Carr, most would say Carr had a great year. I dunno.  

Again, all I'm saying is that he had a great season. He did. Obviously, we have a difference of opinion as to what it means to have a 'great season' for a QB, which is fine. But you're getting way too far into the player, the team he was on, what his contract negotiations are, and how he compares to elite NFL QBs...I'm simply talking about the numbers he put up this season.    

He did not have a great season. He threw for under 7 yards per attempt and his interception rate was approaching 3%. Not tragic numbers, of course, but certainly not great. And that's just by the numbers aggregately, without considering the decidedly low level of difficulty compared to his peers.

If his 2015 stats belonged to Philip Rivers - never mind someone even better - it would not be considered a great season. It's only being called a great season by a couple of people because the expected bar for Fitzpatrick was so low.

Ergo, this was a great season for Fitzpatrick personally, not for any NFL QB.

[Paradis]

 

[maury77]

5 hours ago, Paradis said:

 

Lynch has some nice arm talent, but he is going to need a year or two to fix his mechanics. Even in that throw, he is able to complete the long pass, but the ball floats a little bit because Lynch is falling off to the left a little as he throws. He has to work on his weight transfer. 

[Ghost]

I rather draft the best player available (No D-Line) and take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. Sit him for a year and hope that Petty or the rookie can take over eventually.  

[Integrity28]

20 hours ago, cant wait said:

The most encouraging thing I've read all offseason was a comment from some NFL executive saying he's never seen a GM do so much scouting himself in person. The guy was flying all over the country all season to get a firsthand look at these prospects... If Mac believes in a QB enough to take him in the first round I'm on board with it

So... is it fair to say Mac is "betting on himself"?

Joking aside, I'm 100% with you ... gotta respect how good he's been so far. Let's hope the tenacity doesn't diminish. I think of Rex his first year, trying to prove he should have become a HC long before he finally got a shot, he was humble in his approach (even if is boasts were not). Then, he bought into his celebrity and became a joke. It's unfortunate, the guy had so much potential.

Hope Mac never gets comfortable.

[Paradis]

Quote

 

The Cowboys are one of four teams that have inquired on moving up to the top spot of the draft. The other three teams are the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets, who are the dark horse. The overall belief around the league is the Jets don’t have the ammunition to move up. The question is would they be willing to move up a half dozen spots is Paxton Lynch falls to the middle of round one?
 

 

[Cosimojet]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

 

Every team has enough amo to move up.  It's always a question of whether it's worth it.  If Wentz is the real deal (becomes Rodgers), then it's worth it.

 

[Paradis]

15 minutes ago, Cosimojet said:

Every team has enough amo to move up.  It's always a question of whether it's worth it.  If Wentz is the real deal (becomes Rodgers), then it's worth it.

 

ehhh. kind of. I mean, i could offer ATL our 1st round pick for the next 6 years and they'd trade us Julio... so yea. Anything's possible. Us trading up to 1 is a stretch. TEN would have to be OK with Wilk + #20... which they won't... they'll want next year's 1st, etc. At that point - i pass. I don't like Wentz THAT much... not even totally sure he's better than Goff. I think he is... but maybe not.

 

Also, the didn't send anyone to Goff or Wentz' prodays... they sent 5 to Lynch's... I think tony's take is more realistic. 

[cant wait]

5 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

So... is it fair to say Mac is "betting on himself"?

Joking aside, I'm 100% with you ... gotta respect how good he's been so far. Let's hope the tenacity doesn't diminish. I think of Rex his first year, trying to prove he should have become a HC long before he finally got a shot, he was humble in his approach (even if is boasts were not). Then, he bought into his celebrity and became a joke. It's unfortunate, the guy had so much potential.

Hope Mac never gets comfortable.

It really is amazing that bradway had so much influence for so long, the guy was made GM back in 2001-- the only person that had been longer in the organization outside of woody. It goes to show the cast of characters that have been the jets GM in the past 15 years haven't had as much focus on the personnel and scouting as there is now

[nyjunc]

1 minute ago, cant wait said:

It really is amazing that bradway had so much influence for so long, the guy was made GM back in 2001-- the only person that had been longer in the organization outside of woody. It goes to show the cast of characters that have been the jets GM in the past 15 years haven't had as much focus on the personnel and scouting as there is now

to be fair we never had a better stretch in our history than the years Bradway was in our organization.  

[Matt39]

5 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

to be fair we never had a better stretch in our history than the years Bradway was in our organization.  

That was mainly bc on Pennington, who was drafted by Parcells. Once he got hurt/couldnt stay healthy he was screwed bc he had zero idea on what he was doing.

[nyjunc]

25 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

That was mainly bc on Pennington, who was drafted by Parcells. Once he got hurt/couldnt stay healthy he was screwed bc he had zero idea on what he was doing.

I said while he was in the organization so 2001-2014.  They made the playoffs w/ 3 different QBs.

Over his 15 years w/ the organization:

-won an AFC east title, one of only 2 in our history(4 div titles overall) and the only time Tom Brady hasn't won the division.

-made 6 postseason apps, only had 9 in our history prior to that

-won 6 playoff games, only had 6 in our history prior to that

 

I am not trying to say he's Ozzie Newsome and we should build a statue but I think gets far too much criticism.  He was much more positive on the Jets than negative

[Cosimojet]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

ehhh. kind of. I mean, i could offer ATL our 1st round pick for the next 6 years and they'd trade us Julio... so yea. Anything's possible. Us trading up to 1 is a stretch. TEN would have to be OK with Wilk + #20... which they won't... they'll want next year's 1st, etc. At that point - i pass. I don't like Wentz THAT much... not even totally sure he's better than Goff. I think he is... but maybe not.

 

Also, the didn't send anyone to Goff or Wentz' prodays... they sent 5 to Lynch's... I think tony's take is more realistic. 

Definitely a stretch, but if it costs #20, Wilkerson, and next year’s 1^st, it would be worth it.  Wilkerson is likely a goner either way, so it’s really #20 and another 1^st to move up 19 spots… 

Like you say, I doubt Tennessee wants Wilkerson’s contract…

Still in general philosophy, unlike others, I’m not opposed to giving up 1^st rounders to get a franchise QB.  Realize, in the last 10 years (in addition to the good picks Wilkerson + Revis), we selected Dee Milliner, Quinton Coples, Kyle Wilson, Vernon Gholston, and Dewayne Robertson…

I’m not sure if Wentz is the guy, I sort of like Lynch myself (think he goes 11-15)… just saying if the Jets loved Wentz or Goff at #1, then by all means, go get him.

[Paradis]

22 minutes ago, Cosimojet said:

Definitely a stretch, but if it costs #20, Wilkerson, and next year’s 1^st, it would be worth it.  Wilkerson is likely a goner either way, so it’s really #20 and another 1^st to move up 19 spots… 

Like you say, I doubt Tennessee wants Wilkerson’s contract…

Still in general philosophy, unlike others, I’m not opposed to giving up 1^st rounders to get a franchise QB.  Realize, in the last 10 years (in addition to the good picks Wilkerson + Revis), we selected Dee Milliner, Quinton Coples, Kyle Wilson, Vernon Gholston, and Dewayne Robertson…

I’m not sure if Wentz is the guy, I sort of like Lynch myself (think he goes 11-15)… just saying if the Jets loved Wentz or Goff at #1, then by all means, go get him.

They other reason this will never happen though is--

Woody walks in your office. Hey Cosimo... how's going?

Good....

Heard you were thinking about mortgaging the draft to move up for that FCS kid...

It crossed my mind.

Well, better be sure. You fck this up, and you're done. So i hope you feel good enough about that kid to risk your job.

Woody leaves the room. Cosimo leans back in his chair... pulls out his phone... "Hello Tennessee, ya nevermind. I was just playing"

[JetBlue]

If Lynch is gone I can see us going Hackenberg or Jones in the 2nd - 4th round. In fact I can see Hackenberg in Green and White.  Don't think Lynch makes it to 20....

[Baller00]

I don't think the Jets take a quarterback in this draft.  I believe GM Maccagnan will look at the 2017 Draft to find their future franchise QB.

Watson from Clemson, Kelly from Ole Miss, Kaaya from Miami, Falk from Wash St., Dobbs from Tennesse, and

Mayfield from Oklahoma will all probably declare for the 2017 Draft.

[section314]

17 minutes ago, Baller00 said:

I don't think the Jets take a quarterback in this draft.  I believe GM Maccagnan will look at the 2017 Draft to find their future franchise QB.

Watson from Clemson, Kelly from Ole Miss, Kaaya from Miami, Falk from Wash St., Dobbs from Tennesse, and

Mayfield from Oklahoma will all probably declare for the 2017 Draft.

Then Geno is the man for 2016.

[King P]

1 hour ago, JetBlue said:

If Lynch is gone I can see us going Hackenberg or Jones in the 2nd - 4th round. In fact I can see Hackenberg in Green and White.  Don't think Lynch makes it to 20....

I don't want Hackenberg at all.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/04/08/draft-why-pff-doesnt-have-a-draftable-grade-on-christian-hackenberg/

This article just sums my entire opinion of him. And while I won't see he shouldn't be drafted at all, I wouldn't draft him any earlier than the 4th.

This QB class doesn't excite me 1 bit. The only QB I would feel completely comfortable drafting in the 1st round is Goff. And he won't be there at 20. I see some things I like about Lynch, but I don't view him as a 1st round pick. But at the same time, I realize that he won't be there in the 2nd when we're on the clock. So if the Jets are that high on Lynch that they're ok with taking him at 20, I understand. I won't be totally excited about it, but I'll be able to at least accept it.

No to Connor "spaghetti armed" Cook. No to Dak Prescott.

If we miss out and Goff and Lynch, I'd go for Jacoby Brissett or Cardale Jones in the mid rounds. Vernon Adams or Brandon Allen in the late rounds will suffice as well.

[Paradis]

I don't think the Jets take a quarterback in this draft.  I believe GM Maccagnan will look at the 2017 Draft to find their future franchise QB.

Watson from Clemson, Kelly from Ole Miss, Kaaya from Miami, Falk from Wash St., Dobbs from Tennesse, and

Mayfield from Oklahoma will all probably declare for the 2017 Draft.

Same old broken record. NEXT YEAR!... That's the one! Loaded!! Remember when 2016 was going to be the pinnacle?! Cardale, Cook, and Hack??

...yawn.

[Sperm Edwards]

7 hours ago, cant wait said:

It really is amazing that bradway had so much influence for so long, the guy was made GM back in 2001-- the only person that had been longer in the organization outside of woody. It goes to show the cast of characters that have been the jets GM in the past 15 years haven't had as much focus on the personnel and scouting as there is now

Tannenbaum was with the organization longer. He was Tuna's cap guy for years before Bradway got here.